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000
FXUS62 KCAE 010544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY ACROSS N
GA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY.
MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY INLAND. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE
MAINLY TO OUR N AND NE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY FAVOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO
-3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO
2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW
LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z FRIDAY.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED COOLING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS.  LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  AS AN 850MB LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
UPSTATE ON FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY ACROSS N
GA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY.
MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY INLAND. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE
MAINLY TO OUR N AND NE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY FAVOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO
-3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO
2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW
LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z FRIDAY.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED COOLING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS.  LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  AS AN 850MB LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
UPSTATE ON FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS62 KGSP 010542
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...PRECIP SHIELD AROUND IS SHIFTING JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME CELLS ARE
PRODUCING INSTANTANEOUS RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 IN/HR OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL UPSTATE...BUT 3-HR FFG RATIOS REMAIN 50 PERCENT OR LESS PER
DUAL POL. THE 02Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE LLVL MASS
FIELDS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE PRECIP FOCUS
ALIGNING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND NC FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. THE OP MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS SAME GENERAL QPF TREND. THERE
COULD BE ENUF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE TO WARRANT AN SPS
OR POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS....ESP OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGFNTLY ACROSS
THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING
IN. TEMPS AND TDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STEADY STATE CONDS.

1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR ARND 10Z.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL 15Z OR SO AS SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE
TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN
A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO LOW
MVFR IF NOT IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z TO POSSIBLY VFR CONDS AS PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES NORTH. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%     MED   71%
KAND       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   67%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010542
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...PRECIP SHIELD AROUND IS SHIFTING JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME CELLS ARE
PRODUCING INSTANTANEOUS RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 IN/HR OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL UPSTATE...BUT 3-HR FFG RATIOS REMAIN 50 PERCENT OR LESS PER
DUAL POL. THE 02Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE LLVL MASS
FIELDS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE PRECIP FOCUS
ALIGNING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND NC FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. THE OP MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS SAME GENERAL QPF TREND. THERE
COULD BE ENUF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE TO WARRANT AN SPS
OR POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS....ESP OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGFNTLY ACROSS
THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING
IN. TEMPS AND TDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STEADY STATE CONDS.

1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR ARND 10Z.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL 15Z OR SO AS SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE
TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN
A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO LOW
MVFR IF NOT IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z TO POSSIBLY VFR CONDS AS PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES NORTH. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%     MED   71%
KAND       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   67%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010542
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...PRECIP SHIELD AROUND IS SHIFTING JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME CELLS ARE
PRODUCING INSTANTANEOUS RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 IN/HR OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL UPSTATE...BUT 3-HR FFG RATIOS REMAIN 50 PERCENT OR LESS PER
DUAL POL. THE 02Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE LLVL MASS
FIELDS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE PRECIP FOCUS
ALIGNING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND NC FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. THE OP MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS SAME GENERAL QPF TREND. THERE
COULD BE ENUF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE TO WARRANT AN SPS
OR POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS....ESP OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGFNTLY ACROSS
THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING
IN. TEMPS AND TDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STEADY STATE CONDS.

1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR ARND 10Z.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL 15Z OR SO AS SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE
TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN
A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO LOW
MVFR IF NOT IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z TO POSSIBLY VFR CONDS AS PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES NORTH. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%     MED   71%
KAND       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   67%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010542
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...PRECIP SHIELD AROUND IS SHIFTING JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME CELLS ARE
PRODUCING INSTANTANEOUS RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 IN/HR OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL UPSTATE...BUT 3-HR FFG RATIOS REMAIN 50 PERCENT OR LESS PER
DUAL POL. THE 02Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE LLVL MASS
FIELDS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE PRECIP FOCUS
ALIGNING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND NC FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. THE OP MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS SAME GENERAL QPF TREND. THERE
COULD BE ENUF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE TO WARRANT AN SPS
OR POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS....ESP OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGFNTLY ACROSS
THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING
IN. TEMPS AND TDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STEADY STATE CONDS.

1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR ARND 10Z.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL 15Z OR SO AS SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE
TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN
A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO LOW
MVFR IF NOT IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z TO POSSIBLY VFR CONDS AS PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES NORTH. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%     MED   71%
KAND       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   67%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 010523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA
WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SKY COVER
IN SE GEORGIA AND SOME WINDS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING NEARING DAYBREAK
IF NOT SOONER. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. IFR CIGS LURK JUST OFF
THE WEST IN SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR AT 0530Z. AS A RESULT...THE
TAF INDICATES TEMPO SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 10-14Z
TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY
DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG OR EVEN
SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA
WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SKY COVER
IN SE GEORGIA AND SOME WINDS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING NEARING DAYBREAK
IF NOT SOONER. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. IFR CIGS LURK JUST OFF
THE WEST IN SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR AT 0530Z. AS A RESULT...THE
TAF INDICATES TEMPO SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 10-14Z
TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY
DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG OR EVEN
SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. HAVE REMAINED WITH POPS OVERNIGHT 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. HAVE REMAINED WITH POPS OVERNIGHT 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  90%     MED   74%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  90%     MED   74%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  90%     MED   74%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  90%     MED   74%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010149
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ALREADY SEEING CONFLUENCE BANDS IN THE
FORM OF FINE LINES ON KCLX RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND STRETCHING INTO THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN FACT...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AREA ALONG ONE OF THESE BANDS.
THE LATEST H3R IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP AND 4KM-NSSL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION RE-FIRING LATER TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 010149
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ALREADY SEEING CONFLUENCE BANDS IN THE
FORM OF FINE LINES ON KCLX RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND STRETCHING INTO THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN FACT...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AREA ALONG ONE OF THESE BANDS.
THE LATEST H3R IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP AND 4KM-NSSL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION RE-FIRING LATER TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010018
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LANCASTER AND INTO NC. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PRODUCING
LIGHT RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVES MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH AL/GA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 010018
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LANCASTER AND INTO NC. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PRODUCING
LIGHT RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVES MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH AL/GA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 010015
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...BAND OF RAINFALL IS NOW ORIENTED ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SET TO MOVE INTO METRO CHARLOTTE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER ONTO THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER WHICH IT DEVELOPED...SIMILAR TO A
WEDGE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS NESDIS SAT ANALYSIS BRANCH POINTED OUT
EARLIER IN A PRECIP DISCUSSION FOR OUR AREA...THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER
ALABAMA IS LIKELY TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. ANCHORED CONVECTION ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER GA
SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THE WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THIS IS WHAT NESDIS EXPECTS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE WARM
UPGLIDE FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY STILL IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY
FRI...PERHAPS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.

AS A RESULT...HIT POPS FAIRLY HARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN
UPSTATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND NOW MOVING IN...THEN AS IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN POPS RAMP UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. UPSLOPING
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR OVERNIGHT
SO IT IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  96%     HIGH  84%     MED   78%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010015
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...BAND OF RAINFALL IS NOW ORIENTED ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SET TO MOVE INTO METRO CHARLOTTE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER ONTO THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER WHICH IT DEVELOPED...SIMILAR TO A
WEDGE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS NESDIS SAT ANALYSIS BRANCH POINTED OUT
EARLIER IN A PRECIP DISCUSSION FOR OUR AREA...THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER
ALABAMA IS LIKELY TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. ANCHORED CONVECTION ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER GA
SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THE WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THIS IS WHAT NESDIS EXPECTS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE WARM
UPGLIDE FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY STILL IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY
FRI...PERHAPS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.

AS A RESULT...HIT POPS FAIRLY HARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN
UPSTATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND NOW MOVING IN...THEN AS IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN POPS RAMP UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. UPSLOPING
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR OVERNIGHT
SO IT IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACRS THE FIELD THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE VERY LATE
EVENING. PRECIP ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE EARLY MRNG AS LIFT
FROM MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE SO BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL COME THEN. WITH THE PROLONGED RAIN THIS EVENING AND THE
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IFR CIGS ARE A GOOD
BET OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT THE CIGS WILL BE MORE
RESTRICTIVE. THE PATTERN CHANGES SO LITTLE INTO FRI THAT IMPROVEMENT
IN CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW AND MVFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN.
THUNDER RETURNS WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH SELY GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING SHRA.

ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS NWD THRU THE NC
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER
W. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACRS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
LIFT FROM LLVL WARM UPGLIDE...SO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS IN THE
FCST OVERNIGHT. PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER TOWARD
DAWN SO VCTS IS ADDED AT THAT TIME. IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES WITH IFR FOG ACCOMPANYING IT IN PLACES. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL GIVEN THE MOIST...WEDGE-LIKE SETUP
OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE END OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  96%     HIGH  84%     MED   78%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCHS 312339
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH BROUGHT FLASH FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND
IS AFFECTING UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS SHOWERS/TSTMS TRAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 312339
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH BROUGHT FLASH FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND
IS AFFECTING UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS SHOWERS/TSTMS TRAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 312156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE CHARLESTON REGION...BUT THE FOCUS WAS SHIFTING
INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED PRIMARILY NEAR BOUNDARIES DRAPED ALONG
THE I-16 CORRIDOR IN SE GA...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH VICINITY.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT ALONG I-16 AND DUE TO TRAINING ALONG/EAST OF
I-26 IN SE SC.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF
I-26...WHERE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WILL TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCHS AND KSAV
THIS EVENING...PERHAPS UNTIL AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS COULD THEN PERSIST
AROUND KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...THUS NO ADDITIONAL
VCTS/CBS ARE MENTIONED AFTER THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 312156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE CHARLESTON REGION...BUT THE FOCUS WAS SHIFTING
INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED PRIMARILY NEAR BOUNDARIES DRAPED ALONG
THE I-16 CORRIDOR IN SE GA...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH VICINITY.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT ALONG I-16 AND DUE TO TRAINING ALONG/EAST OF
I-26 IN SE SC.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF
I-26...WHERE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WILL TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCHS AND KSAV
THIS EVENING...PERHAPS UNTIL AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS COULD THEN PERSIST
AROUND KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...THUS NO ADDITIONAL
VCTS/CBS ARE MENTIONED AFTER THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 312059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     LOW   59%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     LOW   59%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     LOW   59%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     LOW   59%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 312034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KCHS 312024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY...MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON REDEVELOPING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND ONGOING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION
ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-26 INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME FEATURING CONCENTRATED
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ANS PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCH COULD
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/SW. THUS...CATEGORICAL POPS AND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY
GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE/AWAY FROM THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ISOLATED/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 22Z. BRIEFER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT KSAV
THIS TERMINAL UNTIL 22Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST NEAR KCHS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE KCHS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...BSH/JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 312024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY...MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON REDEVELOPING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND ONGOING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION
ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-26 INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME FEATURING CONCENTRATED
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ANS PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCH COULD
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/SW. THUS...CATEGORICAL POPS AND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY
GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE/AWAY FROM THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ISOLATED/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 22Z. BRIEFER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT KSAV
THIS TERMINAL UNTIL 22Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST NEAR KCHS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE KCHS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...BSH/JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311825
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS... WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MIANLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     MED   62%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       MED   65%     MED   71%     MED   68%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   72%     MED   70%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  99%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH  81%     MED   62%     HIGH  94%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311825
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS... WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT  WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MIANLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     MED   62%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       MED   65%     MED   71%     MED   68%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   72%     MED   70%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  99%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH  81%     MED   62%     HIGH  94%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
AS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDER IS LOW. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. MOIST EAST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND
ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
AS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDER IS LOW. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. MOIST EAST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND
ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE KSAV
VICINITY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN CONTINUE OVER OR
NEAR KCHS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE
KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE KSAV
VICINITY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN CONTINUE OVER OR
NEAR KCHS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE
KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE KSAV
VICINITY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN CONTINUE OVER OR
NEAR KCHS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE
KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE KSAV
VICINITY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN CONTINUE OVER OR
NEAR KCHS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE
KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS... WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUING AS WELL. THE
COMBINED LIFT OF ALL THREE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS
TO COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW.
EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK.
THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC... A WEAK FRONT  WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLIANS WHICH WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH MIANLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  88%     MED   64%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     MED   60%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND ADDED A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT IN THE KCHS AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS INCLUDING
GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KSAV
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND ADDED A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT IN THE KCHS AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS INCLUDING
GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KSAV
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...AROUND 1.7 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT
INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON THE EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY. WILL STAY JUST
ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY
WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS
OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AND WILL AMEND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS/CIGS. MOST
MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...AROUND 1.7 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT
INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON THE EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY. WILL STAY JUST
ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY
WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS
OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AND WILL AMEND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS/CIGS. MOST
MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311433
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS NOTED OVER COASTAL SE
GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE FEATURES AND
ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-16
WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE AS MAXIMIZED. PER RECENT RADAR
TRENDS/MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SPREAD HIGHER POPS
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.
CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE NORTH OF I-16...BUT LOCALLY GREATER
POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT IN THE KCHS AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS INCLUDING
GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KSAV
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311433
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS NOTED OVER COASTAL SE
GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE FEATURES AND
ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-16
WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE AS MAXIMIZED. PER RECENT RADAR
TRENDS/MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SPREAD HIGHER POPS
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.
CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE NORTH OF I-16...BUT LOCALLY GREATER
POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT IN THE KCHS AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS INCLUDING
GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KSAV
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
939 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE GULF COAST.
CHANNELED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WAVE TRAIN AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR
SHOWED A BAND OF NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIPITATION FORM THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...AS
WELL AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH.

PRECIPIATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME AS HEATING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE
IF PRECIPIATION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

1230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED PER RADAR TRENDS IN
THE SC FOOTHILLS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
HAVE RESULTED IN GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     MED   77%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
939 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE GULF COAST.
CHANNELED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WAVE TRAIN AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR
SHOWED A BAND OF NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIPITATION FORM THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...AS
WELL AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH.

PRECIPIATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME AS HEATING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE
IF PRECIPIATION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

1230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED PER RADAR TRENDS IN
THE SC FOOTHILLS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
HAVE RESULTED IN GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     MED   77%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
828 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREAS THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED PER RADAR TRENDS IN
THE SC FOOTHILLS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
HAVE RESULTED IN GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   72%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   79%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
828 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREAS THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED PER RADAR TRENDS IN
THE SC FOOTHILLS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
HAVE RESULTED IN GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   72%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   79%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND. TODAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE RAIN CHANCES...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITIES.

THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
NORTH GA BY MID MORNING AND THE INLAND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WEDGING ACROSS THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TODAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE RAINS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN THE
SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WITH TIME...ACTING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CHANNELED WITH COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER A REGION TO WATCH FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS. WE INCREASED FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 INTO CHANCE RANGES TODAY. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TODAY AS WITNESSED LAST NIGHT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES. DEEP LAYERED
INSTABILITY IS TEMPERED BY A LAYER OF WARM ALOFT ALOFT AND
UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT FLOURISH WELL IN POOR LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES. THERE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SETUP ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE
NORM. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS
LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE AND WILL
REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS
SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING OVERNIGHT
TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING
THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY
SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. 06Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN RIBBONS OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH CHATHAM COUNTY PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING COULD IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS AND ALTOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT TODAY. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS ONLY
BRIEFLY UNDER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SHOWER CHANCE MAY INCREASE YET
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO PRE-DAWN
BUT COASTAL CONDITIONS STILL WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST
FLOW AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SEAS NEARING 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND. TODAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE RAIN CHANCES...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITIES.

THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
NORTH GA BY MID MORNING AND THE INLAND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WEDGING ACROSS THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TODAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE RAINS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN THE
SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WITH TIME...ACTING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CHANNELED WITH COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER A REGION TO WATCH FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS. WE INCREASED FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 INTO CHANCE RANGES TODAY. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TODAY AS WITNESSED LAST NIGHT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES. DEEP LAYERED
INSTABILITY IS TEMPERED BY A LAYER OF WARM ALOFT ALOFT AND
UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT FLOURISH WELL IN POOR LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES. THERE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SETUP ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE
NORM. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS
LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE AND WILL
REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS
SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING OVERNIGHT
TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING
THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY
SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. 06Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN RIBBONS OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH CHATHAM COUNTY PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING COULD IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS AND ALTOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT TODAY. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS ONLY
BRIEFLY UNDER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SHOWER CHANCE MAY INCREASE YET
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO PRE-DAWN
BUT COASTAL CONDITIONS STILL WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST
FLOW AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SEAS NEARING 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN THE WESTERN UPSTATE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING THEREFORE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 22Z.  AT THAT TIME...MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR TSRA PROB30 FROM 22-02Z.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS
PRECIP SUBSIDES DURING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD INITIATING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.  5-8KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OCCASIONAL EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LINE OF UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...PREVAILED VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE SC
SITES UNDER LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE VCSH GIVES WAY TO
VCTS AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT.  THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
LULL BY EARLY EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST...HOWEVER WX MENTION
RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST PROVIDING WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE PERSISTENT UPGLIDE REGIME AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY...REDUCED VSBY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
AT KAVL...AND EAST NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG.  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG.  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310824
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EXPANDING CLOUD FIELDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA
INCLUDING MOST OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION...CLOUDS UNLIKELY TO
DISSIPATE MUCH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
CHANNELED NOSE OF OF MOISTURE POOLING HAVE MAINTAINED POCKETS OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
NORTH GA BY MID MORNING AND THE INLAND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WEDGING ACROSS THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TODAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE RAINS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN THE
SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WITH TIME...ACTING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CHANNELED WITH COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER A REGION TO WATCH FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS. WE INCREASED FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 INTO CHANCE RANGES TODAY. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TODAY AS WITNESSED LAST NIGHT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES. DEEP LAYERED
INSTABILITY IS TEMPERED BY A LAYER OF WARM ALOFT ALOFT AND
UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT FLOURISH WELL IN POOR LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES. THERE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SETUP ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE
NORM. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS
LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE AND WILL
REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS
SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING OVERNIGHT
TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING
THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND
TODAY SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
IN RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME OR GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS. AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS WILL HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN CUMULUS AND
STRATOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS
VERY BRIEF UNDER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO PRE-DAWN
BUT COASTAL CONDITIONS STILL WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST
FLOW AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SEAS NEARING 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310824
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EXPANDING CLOUD FIELDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA
INCLUDING MOST OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION...CLOUDS UNLIKELY TO
DISSIPATE MUCH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
CHANNELED NOSE OF OF MOISTURE POOLING HAVE MAINTAINED POCKETS OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
NORTH GA BY MID MORNING AND THE INLAND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WEDGING ACROSS THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TODAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE RAINS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN THE
SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WITH TIME...ACTING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CHANNELED WITH COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER A REGION TO WATCH FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS. WE INCREASED FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 INTO CHANCE RANGES TODAY. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TODAY AS WITNESSED LAST NIGHT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES. DEEP LAYERED
INSTABILITY IS TEMPERED BY A LAYER OF WARM ALOFT ALOFT AND
UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT FLOURISH WELL IN POOR LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES. THERE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SETUP ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE
NORM. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS
LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE AND WILL
REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS
SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING OVERNIGHT
TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING
THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND
TODAY SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
IN RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME OR GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS. AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS WILL HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN CUMULUS AND
STRATOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS
VERY BRIEF UNDER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO PRE-DAWN
BUT COASTAL CONDITIONS STILL WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST
FLOW AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON AVERAGE
ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SEAS NEARING 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   67%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%
KAND       MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   67%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%
KAND       MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   67%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%
KAND       MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  CURRENTLY...SAID SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
CONSEQUENT CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPS LEADING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS OF SC...SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUDING WARM FRONT...AND WEAK
WEDGE LIKE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS MODERATE UPGLIDE ATOP WEDGE BOUNDARY
COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

FORECAST WILL INITIATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH
POPS INCREASING TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE MENTION UPGLIDE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED AS WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LEADING TO
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE LEVEL POPS INITIALLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO ROUND
OUT THE FORECAST.  DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ESPECIALLY WHEN ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN LATE.  SPEAKING
OF...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RESIDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS RADIATIONAL
HEATING IS LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. SWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASES THRU THE
PERIOD AS A TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND THE ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICAL ANTI-CYCLONE MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST. SHORT WAVES
MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BECOMES PARKED NEARBY.
A SERIES OF H85 LOWS MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THESE KEEP LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL. BEST POP WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER...LIKELY POP WILL BE FEATURED ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. SCT TSRA SHUD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. RIGHT NOW...
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING SFC
RIDGE LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHC OF SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...SHEAR WILL
BE MUCH LESS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP EITHER DAY...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM...THE NRN PART OF THE UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. THE UPPER LOW THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC... A
WEAK FRONT OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LIKELY POP ON SUN DROPS TO
DIURNAL CHC POP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   67%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%
KAND       MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310543
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDLAND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  MOST RECENT
NAM/CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE THE UPSTATE LATER THIS MORNING.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT NOTABLY
HIGH REGARDING THIS...HOWEVER DID ADJUST POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%     LOW   45%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  88%     LOW   54%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     MED   62%     MED   75%     LOW   52%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     LOW   45%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     LOW   48%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     HIGH  93%     LOW   49%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310543
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDLAND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  MOST RECENT
NAM/CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE THE UPSTATE LATER THIS MORNING.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT NOTABLY
HIGH REGARDING THIS...HOWEVER DID ADJUST POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%     LOW   45%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  88%     LOW   54%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     MED   62%     MED   75%     LOW   52%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     LOW   45%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     LOW   48%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     HIGH  93%     LOW   49%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310543
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDLAND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  MOST RECENT
NAM/CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE THE UPSTATE LATER THIS MORNING.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT NOTABLY
HIGH REGARDING THIS...HOWEVER DID ADJUST POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%     LOW   45%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  88%     LOW   54%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     MED   62%     MED   75%     LOW   52%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     LOW   45%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     LOW   48%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     HIGH  93%     LOW   49%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310543
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDLAND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  MOST RECENT
NAM/CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE THE UPSTATE LATER THIS MORNING.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT NOTABLY
HIGH REGARDING THIS...HOWEVER DID ADJUST POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CIG WHICH
CARRIES THROUGH 14Z.  AT THAT TIME...EXPECTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST TO SPREAD AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
REGION...LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON WHERE LOW VFR STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL.  MARGINAL UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE PERIOD...THEREFORE
OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT 00Z WHERE CIGS ALSO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS.  EXPECTING CIGS TO RECOVER AS PRECIP SUBSIDES NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LOW VFR PREVAILING YET AGAIN.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY.  INITIALIZED WINDS AT CALM
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING WINDS TO
BACK NORTHEASTERLY SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KAVL ACTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LOW/MID VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.  THESE CIGS
WILL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
TO LOW VFR.  MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP THIS
MORNING AT THE SC SITES...THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT OUT OF
TAF.  THAT SAID...LATER IN THE DAY MODELS DO AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES.  THUS...VCSH/VCTS MENTION IS CARRIED AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH KAVL ACTUALLY PREVAILING -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG
THE TERRAIN.  EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS PRECIP
COMMENCES AT EACH LOCATION...AND REMAIN THERE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALSO INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KAVL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AT KAVL...AND EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%     LOW   45%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  88%     LOW   54%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     MED   62%     MED   75%     LOW   52%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     LOW   45%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     LOW   48%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     HIGH  93%     LOW   49%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 310537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO LINGER. RADAR
INDICATES SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN FALLING BETWEEN BEAUFORT
AND SAVANNAH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NORTH OF BLUFFTON. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PEGGED BY MESOANALYSIS
IN THIS REGION AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES
OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. OVERALL COVERAGE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT RANGE
GIVEN OVERALL COVERAGE POTENTIAL AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND
TODAY SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
IN RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME OR GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS. AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS WILL HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN CUMULUS AND
STRATOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS
VERY BRIEF UNDER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO LINGER. RADAR
INDICATES SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN FALLING BETWEEN BEAUFORT
AND SAVANNAH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NORTH OF BLUFFTON. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIOS PEGGED BY MESOANALYSIS
IN THIS REGION AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES
OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. OVERALL COVERAGE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT RANGE
GIVEN OVERALL COVERAGE POTENTIAL AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AROUND
TODAY SUGGEST A RISK OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
IN RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME OR GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS. AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS WILL HIGHLIGHT VCSH TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN CUMULUS AND
STRATOCU ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH ANY MVFR CIGS
VERY BRIEF UNDER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 730 PM...THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STRATUS OR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LIGHT SELY FLOW IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY CLOUDINESS. TRIMMED
BACK THE BLUE RIDGE POPS TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AGAIN
DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND THE FACT THAT BETTER THERMAL ADVECTION DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD SHRA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FIELD ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RATE OF PROPAGATION IS
NOT ENOUGH TO BRING IT NEAR THE FIELD BEFORE DIURNAL BUOYANCY IS
EXHAUSTED. GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN
LIGHT BUT MOIST SELY LLVL FLOW. NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN THE STRATUS. HOWEVER THE FLOW
PATTERN LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE NAM DEPICTION...THEREFORE I HAVE
KEPT A LOW VFR CIG AT KCLT BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK. FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND WARM-ADVECTIVE THU...SO THE CIG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH IT MAY LIFT A BIT. AFTER A MOSTLY CALM
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SE MID-MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CIG FCST IS BASICALLY AS AT KCLT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING. ALL CIGS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT VFR. SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH IFR IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT THE SFC AND WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERHEAD. I
MAINTAINED THE MENTION IN THE VALLEYS AND AT KAVL. LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE MTNS...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
BECOMING POSSIBLE ACRS THE AREA BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION AT ALL SITES. GENERALLY NLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
E OR SE THU.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE FA...COMING OUT
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS...WHICH ARE LARGELY OPAQUE.
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THEM AS WELL. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...PER
THE SELY FLOW PATTERN SEEN ON 00Z NAM AS WELL AS EARLIER MODELS. IN
LIGHT OF THESE FACTS...AND NOTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV
FCST AT THIS HR...I RAISED MIN TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE. SOME CLOUD
COVER HAD ALREADY BEEN ANTICIPATED. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDLANDS...IT WANED MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE...TAKING SOME TIME
TO EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FIRE WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENTLY PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE. EXTENDED THE POP MENTION IN UNION NC A LITTLE LONGER.

AS OF 730 PM...THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STRATUS OR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LIGHT SELY FLOW IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY CLOUDINESS. TRIMMED
BACK THE BLUE RIDGE POPS TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AGAIN
DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND THE FACT THAT BETTER THERMAL ADVECTION DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD SHRA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FIELD ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RATE OF PROPAGATION IS
NOT ENOUGH TO BRING IT NEAR THE FIELD BEFORE DIURNAL BUOYANCY IS
EXHAUSTED. GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN
LIGHT BUT MOIST SELY LLVL FLOW. NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN THE STRATUS. HOWEVER THE FLOW
PATTERN LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE NAM DEPICTION...THEREFORE I HAVE
KEPT A LOW VFR CIG AT KCLT BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK. FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND WARM-ADVECTIVE THU...SO THE CIG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH IT MAY LIFT A BIT. AFTER A MOSTLY CALM
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SE MID-MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CIG FCST IS BASICALLY AS AT KCLT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING. ALL CIGS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT VFR. SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH IFR IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT THE SFC AND WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERHEAD. I
MAINTAINED THE MENTION IN THE VALLEYS AND AT KAVL. LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE MTNS...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
BECOMING POSSIBLE ACRS THE AREA BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION AT ALL SITES. GENERALLY NLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
E OR SE THU.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310127
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF NOCTURNAL LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER
AND SEA ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
70S IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF NOCTURNAL LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER
AND SEA ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
70S IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF NOCTURNAL LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER
AND SEA ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
70S IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF NOCTURNAL LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER
AND SEA ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
70S IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF NOCTURNAL LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER
AND SEA ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
70S IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302357
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS THE
ADDITION OF POPS OVER OUR SE BORDER ZONES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR COLUMBIA IS SLOWLY
PROCEEDING NORTHWARD THRU THE MIDLANDS....AND HAS KICKED OFF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED...SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS. THE MOVEMENT IS SO SLOW
THAT I THINK ONLY THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED ZONES IN OUR
CWFA ARE CAPABLE OF SEEING ACTIVITY POP UP BEFORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WANES. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT
AFTER SUNSET THOUGH...SO I KEPT THE ISOLD POP MENTION THRU 02Z.

OTHERWISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STRATUS OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LIGHT SELY FLOW IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY CLOUDINESS. TRIMMED
BACK THE BLUE RIDGE POPS TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AGAIN
DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND THE FACT THAT BETTER THERMAL ADVECTION DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD SHRA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FIELD ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RATE OF PROPAGATION IS
NOT ENOUGH TO BRING IT NEAR THE FIELD BEFORE DIURNAL BUOYANCY IS
EXHAUSTED. GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN
LIGHT BUT MOIST SELY LLVL FLOW. NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN THE STRATUS. HOWEVER THE FLOW
PATTERN LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE NAM DEPICTION...THEREFORE I HAVE
KEPT A LOW VFR CIG AT KCLT BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK. FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND WARM-ADVECTIVE THU...SO THE CIG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH IT MAY LIFT A BIT. AFTER A MOSTLY CALM
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SE MID-MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CIG FCST IS BASICALLY AS AT KCLT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING. ALL CIGS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT VFR. SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH IFR IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT THE SFC AND WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERHEAD. I
MAINTAINED THE MENTION IN THE VALLEYS AND AT KAVL. LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE MTNS...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
BECOMING POSSIBLE ACRS THE AREA BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION AT ALL SITES. GENERALLY NLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
E OR SE THU.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KCAE 302337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT.
PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO
13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND
AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 302337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT.
PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO
13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND
AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING: VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING. ONE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM PERKINS TO ROCKY
FORD-OAKY- POCOTALIGO-JACKSONBORO AT 30/2250Z WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ADJUSTED POPS
TO MATCH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR
THE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER AND SEA
ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 302316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING: VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING. ONE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM PERKINS TO ROCKY
FORD-OAKY- POCOTALIGO-JACKSONBORO AT 30/2250Z WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ADJUSTED POPS
TO MATCH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR
THE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER AND SEA
ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAF. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER
ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS WHEN TIMING/COVERAGE IS BETTER
DEFINED. OUTSIDE ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302258
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302258
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 302255
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING: VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING. ONE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM PERKINS TO ROCKY
FORD-OAKY- POCOTALIGO-JACKSONBORO AT 30/2250Z WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ADJUSTED POPS
TO MATCH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR
THE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER AND SEA
ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 302255
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING: VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING. ONE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM PERKINS TO ROCKY
FORD-OAKY- POCOTALIGO-JACKSONBORO AT 30/2250Z WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ADJUSTED POPS
TO MATCH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR
THE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA AND INLAND WIND FIELDS DROP OFF IN
RESPONSE TO A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER AND SEA
ISLANDS. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT: A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
SUPPORT EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX TEMPS MORE
LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA NEARER THE STATIONARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THE CU OVER THE BALSAMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY CONGESTED...AND IT IS IN
THIS AREA THAT THE CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT SHOWERS
COULD FIRE. THUS...I EXPANDED THE SCHC POPS OVER A BIT WIDER AREA OF
THE SRN MTNS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY COME AND GO THRU LATE AFTN AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE. WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CALM BUT CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL NLY WHEN BLOWING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO
THE SE. LOW VFR CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 302037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX TEMPS MORE
LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA NEARER THE STATIONARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THE CU OVER THE BALSAMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY CONGESTED...AND IT IS IN
THIS AREA THAT THE CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT SHOWERS
COULD FIRE. THUS...I EXPANDED THE SCHC POPS OVER A BIT WIDER AREA OF
THE SRN MTNS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 215 PM...IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY
LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE
WHICH WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK
MECHANICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A
VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY COME AND GO THRU LATE AFTN AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE. WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CALM BUT CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL NLY WHEN BLOWING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO
THE SE. LOW VFR CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITHIN THE ONGOING DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...BROAD LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF
I-95. A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED WITHIN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT DEPTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
NEVERTHELESS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS JUSTIFIED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SHOWERS.

AFTER DARK...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSIST. WHILE A
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERNIGHT POPS
FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...AND ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATE PACKAGES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WELL
INLAND AND IN THE 70S MOST OTHER AREAS...NOT MUCH BELOW 80F GIVEN
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AT KSAV. SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE
VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE KSAV AND KCHS THURSDAY
MORNING. OUTSIDE SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT
EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD TO AS HIGH
AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITHIN THE ONGOING DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...BROAD LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF
I-95. A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED WITHIN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT DEPTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
NEVERTHELESS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS JUSTIFIED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SHOWERS.

AFTER DARK...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSIST. WHILE A
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERNIGHT POPS
FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...AND ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATE PACKAGES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WELL
INLAND AND IN THE 70S MOST OTHER AREAS...NOT MUCH BELOW 80F GIVEN
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS A RESULT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...ELIMINATING THE
CAP AND INCREASING PWATS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND A SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP BY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
TSTM COVERAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY
A 90 KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED
SUCH THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WE ARE SHOWING HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH AT SOME POINT LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD DUE TO SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AMPLE FORCING
AND STEERING FLOW AROUND 10 KT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AT KSAV. SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE
VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE KSAV AND KCHS THURSDAY
MORNING. OUTSIDE SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT
EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD TO AS HIGH
AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT
TIMES THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301845
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301845
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301825
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301825
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A QUIET AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND PLEASNT MAX
TEMPS MORE LIKE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE....SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE BY LATE THU. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES
SE. AT THE SAME...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E-SE WHICH WILL
ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE WEEK MECHANICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLUS BY THU AFTERNOON...A VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND SWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THU AFTERNOON. ALL THIS COMBINED WILL GIVE US AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THU....WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS
TIME AS INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE EXPECTED. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ANTICIPATED ON THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
INCREASE SHARPLY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FADING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LCLS BELOW 2 KFT. NAM12 SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 305K-315K FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE
EAST FACING SLOPES AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
IN ADDITION...A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY... I WILL FORECAST
GENERALLY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-85...HIGH CHC EAST. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
PERIODS OF RAIN...ENE WINDS...AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TREND WEAKER
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF. I WILL FORECAST A RANGE IN POPS...LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS TO HIGH CHC EAST. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
LWR MS VLY AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME DEGREE OF TROFINESS WILL LINGER THRU
WEDNESDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER PARALLEL TO
THE SWLY UPR FLOW ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE
CWFA IN A MOIST/UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY...PER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE.

SO BLENDING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...I WILL FCST ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY)...AND
TAPERING SOMEWHAT TO SHOTGUN LOW-MID CHC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP)...AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS THRU MONDAY...THEN AFTN HIGHS
WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
LOWS.

THE EXPECTED DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER SEVERAL PERIODS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...QG FORCING AND LLVL TRIGGERING WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE...WITH THE BETTER MID LVL FORCING TO THE
NORTH...AND LLVL JET AND INSTBY TO THE EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY SEVERE WX OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED LOCAL POPS BASED ON
RECENT/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ALSO...BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTED A POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING AS
OUTLINED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWS AND HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAD BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS
SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE BRIEFLY LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. A MENTION OF THUNDER IS STILL JUSTIFIED...
ALTHOUGH SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
MORE PREVALENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 90F AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS HAS INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DUE TO THE
LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...
A CYCLONIC/RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED LOCAL POPS BASED ON
RECENT/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ALSO...BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTED A POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING AS
OUTLINED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWS AND HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAD BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS
SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE BRIEFLY LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. A MENTION OF THUNDER IS STILL JUSTIFIED...
ALTHOUGH SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
MORE PREVALENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 90F AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS HAS INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DUE TO THE
LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...
A CYCLONIC/RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED LOCAL POPS BASED ON
RECENT/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ALSO...BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTED A POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING AS
OUTLINED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWS AND HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAD BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS
SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE BRIEFLY LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. A MENTION OF THUNDER IS STILL JUSTIFIED...
ALTHOUGH SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
MORE PREVALENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 90F AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS HAS INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DUE TO THE
LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...
A CYCLONIC/RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED LOCAL POPS BASED ON
RECENT/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ALSO...BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTED A POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING AS
OUTLINED LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWS AND HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A MARKED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAD BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS
SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE BRIEFLY LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. A MENTION OF THUNDER IS STILL JUSTIFIED...
ALTHOUGH SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
MORE PREVALENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 90F AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS HAS INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AROUND KSAV WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DUE TO THE
LOW PROBABILITY 18Z TAFS DO NOT INDICATE VCTS/CBS. ASSUMING A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL AMEND TAFS AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...
A CYCLONIC/RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SE. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE A GOOD BET BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON THU BUT
POPS TOO LOW BEFORE 18Z TO MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301621
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301621
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301621
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301621
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301527
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MARKED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC
FLOW AND MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST
OF I-95. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH
AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE
AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING
INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BUMPED POPS UP MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING HAD LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAD OCCURRED OVER COASTAL WATERS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY PLAY OUT AS DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADS INLAND...THUS A
MENTION OF THUNDER IS JUSTIFIED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED HIGHS AROUND 90S MOST AREAS AS
EVEN BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS UP...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS HAS
INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TAF UPDATE INDICATE ONLY
VCSH WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WILL AMEND AS DICTATED BY NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE OVERALL CYCLONIC/ONSHORE FLOW REGION SUGGEST A LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A CYCLONIC/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY
ONSHORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301527
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MARKED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WITHIN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE SURFACE-850 MB CYCLONIC
FLOW AND MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST
OF I-95. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH
AXIS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS SE GA JUST S/W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE
AND THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING
INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PER LATEST TRENDS DEPICTED BY
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BUMPED POPS UP MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING HAD LOFTED 50 DBZ RETURNS WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL
OF AROUND 14 KFT AGL...AND ISOLATED CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAD OCCURRED OVER COASTAL WATERS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY PLAY OUT AS DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADS INLAND...THUS A
MENTION OF THUNDER IS JUSTIFIED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...
DOWNDRAFT CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. ALSO OF NOTE...UNDER A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BAND
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT REMAINED DRAPED OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOIST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THUS LATEST THINKING
IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
CONVECTION EVOLUTION/MODE THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT BENEATH THE ELEVATED INVERSION
COULD TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED HIGHS AROUND 90S MOST AREAS AS
EVEN BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS UP...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS HAS
INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TAF UPDATE INDICATE ONLY
VCSH WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WILL AMEND AS DICTATED BY NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE OVERALL CYCLONIC/ONSHORE FLOW REGION SUGGEST A LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A CYCLONIC/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY
ONSHORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING. THIS
UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING. THIS
UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUBTLE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER
THE COASTAL MID ATLC REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY
AND SEASONABLY LOW PWATS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY DAY MOST AREAS BUT
THE MODELS ALL PRODUCE SPOTTY FIELDS OF LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG
AND E OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH GENERALLY
SEEMS OVERDONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY SLIM DEEP
CONVECTION POTENTIAL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD CROP UP WHERE MOISTURE
CONVENES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT CHANCES NOT REACHING 20 PERCENT IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE
LOWER 90S MAX TEMPS BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ACTUALLY SPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE A GOOD BIT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE MID LEVEL CAP WHICH
COULD RESTRICT READINGS TO THE UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS. WE MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TRENDS OVERALL.

MOISTURE TENDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT SOME
POINT LATE...PERHAPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. WE HAVE
SMALL COASTAL RAIN CHANCES...BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE AT THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME
LOW TEMPS AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN OR
ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER ANY RAINS CAN SPREAD INLAND AS FAR
AS THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES WERE LACKING. RADAR
AT DAWN INDICATING SHOWERS/TSTMS OFF OF BEAUFORT COUNTY...WILL
MONITOR 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING DATA FOR POSSIBLE MENTIONS OF
WATERSPOUTS IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF NEEDED.

WEAK MOISTURE AND PRES GRADIENTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
MORE OF A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY ONSHORE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS TODAY INCREASING A BIT TO 2-3
FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUBTLE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER
THE COASTAL MID ATLC REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY
AND SEASONABLY LOW PWATS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY DAY MOST AREAS BUT
THE MODELS ALL PRODUCE SPOTTY FIELDS OF LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG
AND E OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH GENERALLY
SEEMS OVERDONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY SLIM DEEP
CONVECTION POTENTIAL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD CROP UP WHERE MOISTURE
CONVENES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT CHANCES NOT REACHING 20 PERCENT IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE
LOWER 90S MAX TEMPS BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ACTUALLY SPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE A GOOD BIT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE MID LEVEL CAP WHICH
COULD RESTRICT READINGS TO THE UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS. WE MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TRENDS OVERALL.

MOISTURE TENDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT SOME
POINT LATE...PERHAPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. WE HAVE
SMALL COASTAL RAIN CHANCES...BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE AT THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME
LOW TEMPS AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN OR
ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER ANY RAINS CAN SPREAD INLAND AS FAR
AS THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES WERE LACKING. RADAR
AT DAWN INDICATING SHOWERS/TSTMS OFF OF BEAUFORT COUNTY...WILL
MONITOR 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING DATA FOR POSSIBLE MENTIONS OF
WATERSPOUTS IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF NEEDED.

WEAK MOISTURE AND PRES GRADIENTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
MORE OF A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY ONSHORE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS TODAY INCREASING A BIT TO 2-3
FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301029
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301029
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORNING WITH POCKETS
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DUAL AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SLIDING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA OVERNIGHT BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF BOTH THE RIVER
AND OUR FORECAST AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A NEAR COASTAL SHOWER
IN SE GEORGIA BUT THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND
TO LOWER 70S NEARING THE COAST.

A SUBTLE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL
MID ATLC REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY
LOW PWATS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY DAY MOST AREAS BUT THE MODELS ALL
PRODUCE SPOTTY FIELDS OF LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG AND E OF I-95
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH GENERALLY SEEMS OVERDONE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP BETWEEN 600
AND 700 MB WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY SLIM DEEP CONVECTION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD CROP UP WHERE MOISTURE CONVENES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
BUT CHANCES NOT REACHING 20 PERCENT IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS
POINT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE LOWER 90S MAX TEMPS BUT
A FEW OF THE MODELS ACTUALLY SPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE A GOOD BIT THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER THE MID LEVEL CAP WHICH COULD RESTRICT READINGS
TO THE UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS. WE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST TRENDS OVERALL.

MOISTURE TENDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT SOME
POINT LATE...PERHAPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. WE HAVE
SMALL COASTAL RAIN CHANCES...BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE AT THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME
LOW TEMPS AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN IS QUITE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK MOISTURE AND PRES GRADIENTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY ONSHORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS TODAY INCREASING A BIT TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORNING WITH POCKETS
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DUAL AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SLIDING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA OVERNIGHT BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF BOTH THE RIVER
AND OUR FORECAST AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A NEAR COASTAL SHOWER
IN SE GEORGIA BUT THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND
TO LOWER 70S NEARING THE COAST.

A SUBTLE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL
MID ATLC REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY
LOW PWATS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY DAY MOST AREAS BUT THE MODELS ALL
PRODUCE SPOTTY FIELDS OF LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG AND E OF I-95
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH GENERALLY SEEMS OVERDONE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP BETWEEN 600
AND 700 MB WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY SLIM DEEP CONVECTION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD CROP UP WHERE MOISTURE CONVENES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
BUT CHANCES NOT REACHING 20 PERCENT IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS
POINT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE LOWER 90S MAX TEMPS BUT
A FEW OF THE MODELS ACTUALLY SPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE A GOOD BIT THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER THE MID LEVEL CAP WHICH COULD RESTRICT READINGS
TO THE UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS. WE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST TRENDS OVERALL.

MOISTURE TENDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AT SOME
POINT LATE...PERHAPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. WE HAVE
SMALL COASTAL RAIN CHANCES...BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE AT THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME
LOW TEMPS AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT BACK TOWARDS SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK CLOSER TO SHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND ANY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN IT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTLE JET CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD HAVE BEEN HELD TO BE NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT LIKELY POPS...OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT BUT THESE ROUNDS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY...PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. IN FACT...QPF PROGS
FROM WPC ARE QUITE WET FOR THIS PERIOD AND FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS INTO THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN IS QUITE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK MOISTURE AND PRES GRADIENTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT TONIGHT. FLOW MAINLY ONSHORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS TODAY INCREASING A BIT TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS WILL VARY AT TIMES BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP AT TIMES AND SUPPORT
SOME MODESTLY STRONGER WINDS...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN JUST SOME CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.  FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES YIELD SCT LOW VFR FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN OCCURRENCE...THUS OPTED TO GO WITH TEMPO RATHER THAN PREVAILING.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WX CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.  FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES YIELD SCT LOW VFR FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN OCCURRENCE...THUS OPTED TO GO WITH TEMPO RATHER THAN PREVAILING.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WX CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.  FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES YIELD SCT LOW VFR FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN OCCURRENCE...THUS OPTED TO GO WITH TEMPO RATHER THAN PREVAILING.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WX CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.  FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES YIELD SCT LOW VFR FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN OCCURRENCE...THUS OPTED TO GO WITH TEMPO RATHER THAN PREVAILING.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WX CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...CDG







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