Home > Products > State Listing > South Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDGSP |  AFDCAE |  AFDCHS |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 251103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY
WILL BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 251103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY
WILL BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 251035
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...EXCEPT FOR LESS FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS THAN EXPECTED. EVEN K1A5 HAS HAD LITTLE VSBY REDUCTIONS.

AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP
DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN
MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE
REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SAT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...0Z GFS INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK...KEEPING POPS
GENERALLY IN THE SCHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE CLOUDS
AT MVFR LVL. BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE KAVL
TAF.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251035
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...EXCEPT FOR LESS FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS THAN EXPECTED. EVEN K1A5 HAS HAD LITTLE VSBY REDUCTIONS.

AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP
DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN
MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE
REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SAT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...0Z GFS INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK...KEEPING POPS
GENERALLY IN THE SCHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE CLOUDS
AT MVFR LVL. BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE KAVL
TAF.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 251016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS GENERALLY
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER FOG AT AGS AND OGB
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250947
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
547 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS GENERALLY
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER FOG AT AGS AND OGB
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS GENERALLY
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER FOG AT AGS AND OGB
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
STARVED MID LEVEL COLD POOL/VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH MOVED OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST AFTER 07Z. TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AROUND
NORTH CHARLESTON AND THE WESTERN HALF OF CHATHAM COUNTY BY DAYBREAK.
EVEN COOLER TEMPS FURTHER INLAND WITH MILDER READINGS TOWARD THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WILL
BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 250738
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP
DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN
MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE
REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SAT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...0Z GFS INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK...KEEPING POPS
GENERALLY IN THE SCHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE HAS THIS AT VFR
LVL...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY BE LOWER.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
219 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS GENERALLY
VERIFIED BETTER LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
FOG AT AGS AND OGB 09Z-12Z AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE AND
GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 250549
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...ONLY UPDATED THE SKY/WIND FOR 06Z TAFS FOR THIS
UPDATE. FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

1030 PM EDT UPDATE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD AS OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NW
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HENCE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINLY. EXPECT QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCH FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW MTNS/VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE.

720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE HAS THIS AT VFR
LVL...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY BE LOWER.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250522
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS SHIFTING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WAS EXPANDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLOUDS IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA CLEARING RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1131 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. MODELS
STILL NOT INDICATING FOG...BUT FOG DEVELOPED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN SAME AIR MASS...HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT AGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1131 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. MODELS
STILL NOT INDICATING FOG...BUT FOG DEVELOPED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN SAME AIR MASS...HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT AGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXITING THE MIDLANDS TO THE EAST LATE THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE UPSTATE. BY
MIDNIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. THE SHORT WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. MODELS
STILL NOT INDICATING FOG...BUT FOG DEVELOPED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN SAME AIR MASS...HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT AGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 250243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD AS OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NW
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HENCE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINLY. EXPECT QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCH FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW MTNS/VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE.

720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW/WSW
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 16Z SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DID SLOW THE
CLEARING JUST A BIT PER GOING SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH ALSO
NECESSITATED A SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING A
LARGE BATCH OF ALTOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TAIL END OF THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST AT 40 KT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING FAST IN THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS CLOUDS BRIEFLY PUSH THROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD
NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A
NUMBER OF AREAS TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 242342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 04Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS 09Z-12Z...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ATTM.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 242328
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW/WSW
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 16Z SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242255
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING A
LARGE BATCH OF ALTOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TAIL END OF THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST AT 40 KT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING FAST IN THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS CLOUDS BRIEFLY PUSH THROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD
NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A
NUMBER OF AREAS TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 242021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/APPROACH THE REGION AND WILL
SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE/THICKNESS...WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST AND HEADING OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET/THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...FEATURING A RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S AT THE CHILLIEST INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TO START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCLUDING AN EARLY...WEAK/LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/APPROACH THE REGION AND WILL
SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE/THICKNESS...WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST AND HEADING OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET/THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...FEATURING A RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S AT THE CHILLIEST INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TO START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCLUDING AN EARLY...WEAK/LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 241850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE RESPONSIBLE UPPER SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST.
SKIES WILL SCT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER BEHIND THIS FEATURE
LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/COOL NIGHT AHEAD.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.  DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  FULL FORECAST
DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE RESPONSIBLE UPPER SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST.
SKIES WILL SCT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER BEHIND THIS FEATURE
LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/COOL NIGHT AHEAD.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS
LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN .40 IN. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ALL SITES WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241649
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS PUSHING OFFSHORE. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN...EXPECT SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD TOP IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 241420
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY DESPITE SCT
MID CLOUDS THAT HAVE USHERED IN WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE.
MOST SITES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE ALREADY REPORTING IN THE MID 50S
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  MADE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SKY FORECAST ALONG WITH UPDATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.  DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN
RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO ERODE ON SCHEDULE.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241420
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY DESPITE SCT
MID CLOUDS THAT HAVE USHERED IN WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE.
MOST SITES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE ALREADY REPORTING IN THE MID 50S
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  MADE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SKY FORECAST ALONG WITH UPDATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.  DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN
RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO ERODE ON SCHEDULE.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT AGS AND OGB...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH
PWATS 1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE
TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS
ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 241058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONLY AGS IS
HAVING ANY ISSUES WITH EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.
IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
552 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONLY AGS IS
HAVING ANY ISSUES WITH EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION.
PATCHES OF THICKER CIRROSTRATUS NOTED ON 3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY FURTHER EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN A FEW INSTANCES...READINGS MAY RISE A DEGREE
OR TWO.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH PWATS
1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 240754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240752

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240601

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FOG AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY...BUT WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL
DEG AT ALL TAF SITES...AND A QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU THIS
MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240605
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...FOR THE 0530 UTC UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED. I UPDATED THE WIND/SKY/FOG FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FCST
TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE
SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FOG AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY...BUT WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL
DEG AT ALL TAF SITES...AND A QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU THIS
MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 240251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR  IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FCST TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR  IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FCST TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240139
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...SO
OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KGSP 232338
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN SOME OUTLYING
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE PEAKED FOR THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNSET
AND IT WAS SPECTACULAR. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...EXPECT A RAPID
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
THIS EVENING UNDER NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT
THERE IS SOME CONCERN UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
DISRUPT THE RADIATIVE PROCESS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM ROUGHLY 2 AM UNTIL
SUNRISE FRIDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO COOL
BASED ON THIS DATA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT LOWS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE
RAISED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE AFTER A FEW MORE HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE RECEIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-2 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR LEVEL FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL
AND KAND BY MORNING.  LIGHT/MODERATE NW GUSTING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT DUE
TO PGF AND MIXING...THEREFORE GUSTS ARE FEATURED AT KCLT AND KAVL.
ALL SITES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOW STRATUS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE HINTS AT
MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND KAND AS WINDS CALM AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THEREFORE ADDED TEMPOS FOR SUCH AT EACH SITE.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF...THUS INCLUDED SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR LEVEL FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL
AND KAND BY MORNING.  LIGHT/MODERATE NW GUSTING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT DUE
TO PGF AND MIXING...THEREFORE GUSTS ARE FEATURED AT KCLT AND KAVL.
ALL SITES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOW STRATUS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE HINTS AT
MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND KAND AS WINDS CALM AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THEREFORE ADDED TEMPOS FOR SUCH AT EACH SITE.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF...THUS INCLUDED SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY AIR MASS SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY AIR MASS SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231437
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHWEST
NC PIEDMONT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
REGIONWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW FOG/STRATUS IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.  THUS...NO
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231437
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHWEST
NC PIEDMONT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
REGIONWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW FOG/STRATUS IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.  THUS...NO
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities