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000
FXUS62 KCHS 280147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WHICH WERE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE REDEVELOPED
UPSTREAM ACOSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING WAS BONE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AND WE THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE SPARSE AND LIGHT AS A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER RH VALUES POOL BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT. DESPITE
THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT GRAUPEL MIXED IN FROM THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES NORTH GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT BISECTED BY AN
AXIS SOME BETTER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EVENING UPDATES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TRENDS OF A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
WITH AN ARC OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16
WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FALLING TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. OVERALL...MINIMUM TEMPS TRENDS
STILL ON TARGET WITH A SOLID/STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL
BUT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST UNTIL 1 AM AS
MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK OF 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MIXING ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE SHELF WATERS.
OFFSHORE JETTING AND SURGING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS PER LATEST GRAYS REEF AND FORT PULASKI OBS. THE
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WHICH WERE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE REDEVELOPED
UPSTREAM ACOSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING WAS BONE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AND WE THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE SPARSE AND LIGHT AS A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER RH VALUES POOL BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT. DESPITE
THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT GRAUPEL MIXED IN FROM THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES NORTH GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT BISECTED BY AN
AXIS SOME BETTER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EVENING UPDATES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TRENDS OF A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
WITH AN ARC OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16
WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FALLING TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. OVERALL...MINIMUM TEMPS TRENDS
STILL ON TARGET WITH A SOLID/STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL
BUT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST UNTIL 1 AM AS
MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK OF 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MIXING ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE SHELF WATERS.
OFFSHORE JETTING AND SURGING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS PER LATEST GRAYS REEF AND FORT PULASKI OBS. THE
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WHICH WERE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE REDEVELOPED
UPSTREAM ACOSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING WAS BONE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AND WE THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE SPARSE AND LIGHT AS A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER RH VALUES POOL BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT. DESPITE
THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT GRAUPEL MIXED IN FROM THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES NORTH GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT BISECTED BY AN
AXIS SOME BETTER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EVENING UPDATES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TRENDS OF A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
WITH AN ARC OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16
WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FALLING TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. OVERALL...MINIMUM TEMPS TRENDS
STILL ON TARGET WITH A SOLID/STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL
BUT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST UNTIL 1 AM AS
MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK OF 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MIXING ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE SHELF WATERS.
OFFSHORE JETTING AND SURGING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS PER LATEST GRAYS REEF AND FORT PULASKI OBS. THE
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WHICH WERE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE REDEVELOPED
UPSTREAM ACOSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING WAS BONE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AND WE THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE SPARSE AND LIGHT AS A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER RH VALUES POOL BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT. DESPITE
THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT GRAUPEL MIXED IN FROM THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES NORTH GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT BISECTED BY AN
AXIS SOME BETTER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EVENING UPDATES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TRENDS OF A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
WITH AN ARC OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16
WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FALLING TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. OVERALL...MINIMUM TEMPS TRENDS
STILL ON TARGET WITH A SOLID/STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL
BUT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST UNTIL 1 AM AS
MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK OF 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MIXING ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE SHELF WATERS.
OFFSHORE JETTING AND SURGING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS PER LATEST GRAYS REEF AND FORT PULASKI OBS. THE
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 280013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
RESULTING IN AND INCREASE IN THE PIEDMONT...AND THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW VFR
CIG IS NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT VFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS NW WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FORM KGSP AND KGMU OVER
THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ERODE IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT SO AT KAVL UNTIL DAYBREAK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS W OF KAVL WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
NW WINDS WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     502-504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
     506>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
RESULTING IN AND INCREASE IN THE PIEDMONT...AND THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW VFR
CIG IS NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT VFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS NW WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FORM KGSP AND KGMU OVER
THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ERODE IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT SO AT KAVL UNTIL DAYBREAK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS W OF KAVL WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
NW WINDS WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     502-504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
     506>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 272311
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW VFR
CIG IS NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT VFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS NW WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FORM KGSP AND KGMU OVER
THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ERODE IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT SO AT KAVL UNTIL DAYBREAK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS W OF KAVL WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
NW WINDS WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     502-504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
     506>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272311
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW VFR
CIG IS NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT VFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS NW WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FORM KGSP AND KGMU OVER
THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ERODE IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT SO AT KAVL UNTIL DAYBREAK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS W OF KAVL WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
NW WINDS WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     502-504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
     506>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 272311
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW VFR
CIG IS NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT VFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS NW WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FORM KGSP AND KGMU OVER
THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ERODE IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT SO AT KAVL UNTIL DAYBREAK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS W OF KAVL WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
NW WINDS WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     502-504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
     506>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AROUND 6 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE A SHARP THERMAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND CHARLESTON WHERE TEMPS WERE NOW
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. COOLER AIR WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO S GEORGIA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD
OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE. THE EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOST AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE END OF THE
RAIN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACH VORT. ON
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY VERY NEAR TERM
TEMP TRENDS IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE ENDED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND S OF I-16 AND TWEAKED SOME WIND TRENDS.

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION...WHERE STRONG
FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA CAN TAP INTO
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SOFT
HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS REMAIN LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY TO BEFORE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
DRYING BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WHOLESALE CLEARING LATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

KSAV...LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER AND WITH WNW FLOW...LOW CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272030
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE COASTLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DISTINCT WHEN EXAMINING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVING
QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ASSISTED IN
ITS PROGRESSION BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE FREE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION...WHERE STRONG FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA CAN TAP INTO LINGERING MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS...LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RANGE FROM AROUND 39 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE
LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
WILL BE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO MID/UPPER 30S
AT THE COAST. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER...A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
AND FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER LIFT FROM A PASSING
VORT MAX MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER GIVEN DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE BY 4 PM
EDT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA. KCHS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE -RA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS THIS SECONDARY SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCHS AND KSAV AROUND 01Z
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES ARE QUITE MARGINAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES GOING AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL SURGING WITHIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
MIXING OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM EDT...AS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO FALL WITHIN THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH AND BUILDING INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. CRITERIA WILL MAINLY BE REACHED VIA FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL COME
DOWN BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SURGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/ECT
MARINE...WMS/ECT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE INCREASED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AND
SNOW TOTALS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-507>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 272013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE INCREASED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AND
SNOW TOTALS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-507>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-507>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-507>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 EDT FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE
LOWER THETA LEVELS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASES...ACTING TO REDUCE SATURATION IN
LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD REMAIN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /A FEW TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/
AND SOLIDLY IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED STARTING TONIGHT...AND BASED ON
UPDATED LOW TEMPS WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ANOTHER
TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST WEST OF
CHARLOTTE. WINDS DO DIMINISH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH INHIBITING FROST
FORMATION SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE RIDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SMOKIES. NAM REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SMOKIES
BUT EVEN RESULTANT SREF PROBS HAVE AT BEST 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
>1 INCH SNOW...LINING UP WELL WITH WPC PROBS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...DESPITE DRYING
ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT
ELEVATIONS 2500FT OR GREATER. DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH GONE
BY 09Z WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 850MB AND BELOW REMAINING
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BETWEEN 00-06Z. STORM TOTAL SNOW IS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SAT NIGHT...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA
WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN TURNED ON. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION TO KICK IN. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND SPOTTY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MY BE THE
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY OCCUR. DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPTICK TEMPS
IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. IN FACT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING IN THE WEST AND
RISING IN THE EAST...THE CONUS IS IN STORE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDS A (LIKELY DAMPENING) SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX SOMETIME AROUND WED...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SPREADING UPGLIDE PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER. WE OPTED TO GO
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA BY THE END OF WED.

MODEL DISCREPANCY AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE CARVING OF
ANOTHER EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT LOADING UP
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT SOME
QPF RESPONSE (ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)...WHILE MOST PERIODS
PAST WED WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO
AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-507>510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...LG



000
FXUS62 KCHS 271820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
220 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST
AND AN INLAND FREEZE COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND STEADILY PROGRESSING
EAST. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THIS
LINE...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONVECTION LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DEEP MIXING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPPORTED FREQUENT GUSTS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL LIKELY WAVER BETWEEN MARGINAL
MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STEADILY SHIFTING TOWARD BOTH
TERMINALS BY 2 PM EDT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THUNDER NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO PREVAILING VFR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
COMPLETE DECOUPLING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
220 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST
AND AN INLAND FREEZE COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND STEADILY PROGRESSING
EAST. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THIS
LINE...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONVECTION LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DEEP MIXING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPPORTED FREQUENT GUSTS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL LIKELY WAVER BETWEEN MARGINAL
MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STEADILY SHIFTING TOWARD BOTH
TERMINALS BY 2 PM EDT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THUNDER NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO PREVAILING VFR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
COMPLETE DECOUPLING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 271805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ILM TO OGB TO AGS AT 130PM.
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED IN MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF COLUMBIA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A
FAST MOVING UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN GA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHED OVER THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. CAE/CUB ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE 18Z-22Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 21Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
23Z OR SO.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT POPS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 271805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ILM TO OGB TO AGS AT 130PM.
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED IN MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF COLUMBIA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A
FAST MOVING UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN GA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHED OVER THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. CAE/CUB ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE 18Z-22Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 21Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
23Z OR SO.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT POPS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 271749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 271749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 271458
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SOLIDLY MVFR CONTINUES FOR THE CLT AREA WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR. -SHRA HAS MOVED OUT FOR THE MOST PART BUT MIGHT
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE 15Z AMD.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR RETURNS AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL.  THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY.  LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG/TDP
CLIMATE...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271458
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SOLIDLY MVFR CONTINUES FOR THE CLT AREA WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR. -SHRA HAS MOVED OUT FOR THE MOST PART BUT MIGHT
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE 15Z AMD.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR RETURNS AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.  HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL.  THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY.  LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG/TDP
CLIMATE...PM



000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY
00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITES MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY
00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITES MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY
00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITES MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY
00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITES MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY
00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITES MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 271152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE  AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF
IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY IN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25 KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E
SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS
VEER TO WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED
THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE  AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF
IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY IN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25 KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E
SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS
VEER TO WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED
THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 271152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE  AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF
IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY IN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25 KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E
SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS
VEER TO WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED
THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE  AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF
IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY IN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25 KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E
SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS
VEER TO WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED
THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 271129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE  AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF
IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY IN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25 KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E
SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS
VEER TO WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED
THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE SHRA EXPANSION ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUDING
UPPER TROF AXIS.  SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH ALONG SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF WESTERN NC SUCH THAT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST EAST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT MVFR LEVELS WITH -SHRA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
THIS WILL CARRY THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF
MVFR CIG RESTRICITONS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR RETURNS
AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL.  THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY.  LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       MED   62%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   61%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       LOW   57%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   58%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       LOW   58%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 271039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE SHRA EXPANSION ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUDING
UPPER TROF AXIS.  SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH ALONG SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF WESTERN NC SUCH THAT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST EAST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT MVFR LEVELS WITH -SHRA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
THIS WILL CARRY THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF
MVFR CIG RESTRICITONS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR RETURNS
AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL.  THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY.  LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       MED   62%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   61%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       LOW   57%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   58%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       LOW   58%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY THIS MORNING AS
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING STRATUS CLOUDS
THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED T-STORM WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST AND NW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE FADING WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY
ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH EVENTUALLY MVFR WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 15Z
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...BEFORE VFR WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS LATE
TODAY AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND
AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND 8 OR 9 AM...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN
TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE
AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANOMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY THIS MORNING AS
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING STRATUS CLOUDS
THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED T-STORM WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST AND NW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE FADING WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY
ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH EVENTUALLY MVFR WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 15Z
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...BEFORE VFR WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS LATE
TODAY AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 270905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 270905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
CURRENTLY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 270823
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270823
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270823
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270823
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.  AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 270814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 270814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 270814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
ZONES WILL KICK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKES THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH IT AS THEY PROGRESS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SEA FOG IS SCRAPING THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE...BUT GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND A SW FETCH THE
BULK OF THIS PHENOMENA WILL STAY IN THE OCEAN.

FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT
TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. GIVEN A STEERING
MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANAMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS
AFTER 15Z AS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
ZONES WILL KICK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKES THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH IT AS THEY PROGRESS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SEA FOG IS SCRAPING THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE...BUT GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND A SW FETCH THE
BULK OF THIS PHENOMENA WILL STAY IN THE OCEAN.

FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT
TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. GIVEN A STEERING
MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANAMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS
AFTER 15Z AS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
ZONES WILL KICK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKES THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH IT AS THEY PROGRESS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SEA FOG IS SCRAPING THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE...BUT GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND A SW FETCH THE
BULK OF THIS PHENOMENA WILL STAY IN THE OCEAN.

FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT
TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. GIVEN A STEERING
MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANAMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS
AFTER 15Z AS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WARMER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
ZONES WILL KICK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKES THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH IT AS THEY PROGRESS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SEA FOG IS SCRAPING THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE...BUT GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND A SW FETCH THE
BULK OF THIS PHENOMENA WILL STAY IN THE OCEAN.

FOR TODAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT PASSES INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE...WHILE A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT
TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. SHOWERS
ARE ORGANIZING IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ENTER OUR WEST/NW SECTIONS BY AROUND DAYBREAK...SWEEPING RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDING EVERYONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF RAIN.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 150 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT WE
ARE SHOWING 80 POPS IN ALL COUNTIES...BUT ONCE RADAR TRENDS ARE
BETTER ILLUSTRATED WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CARRY 100 POPS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. GIVEN A STEERING
MOTION TOWARD THE EAST/NE AT 40-50 MPH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 OR 1/3 INCH.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. BUT GIVEN SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES...MUCAPES AS MUCH AS 300-500 J/KG AND O-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
75 KT OR SO WE FELT COMPELLED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IT/S WAY IN AND PRESSURES START
TO CLIMB WE ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS TO RISE INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SC THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-20 MPH.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS AND WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD BUMP US
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MID 70S MIGHT BE ACHIEVED SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IT WON/T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN ANAMOUSLY COLD
-1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUNGE DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.

OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...THE AIRPORT WILL TEETER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS
AFTER 15Z AS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SE STATES THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING TO
THE EAST/SE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN BUMPING SW WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 FT ON THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER WATERS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SEA FOG IS STILL EVIDENT BASED ON GOES-E SATELLITE
PRODUCTS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS VEER TO
WEST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. COVERAGE THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INSTEAD THERE IS A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AMZ354 WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS OF 25
OR 30 KT. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SC
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WE STILL MAY NEED TO RAISE THE FLAGS AT A
LATER TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270757
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND BELOW NORMAL...NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS.  THUS...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270757
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND BELOW NORMAL...NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS.  THUS...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270757
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND BELOW NORMAL...NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS.  THUS...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270757
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA.  PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL.  LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED.  FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND BELOW NORMAL...NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS.  THUS...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A MAJORITY
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE 11Z-18Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING A
MAX AROUND 1.2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY
SUN. FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND
OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS
WITHIN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER.  THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     LOW   40%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER.  THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     LOW   40%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 270545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER.  THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     LOW   40%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER.  THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH.  WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS.   CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE.  LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED.  KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG.  ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY.  LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     LOW   40%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AROUND
600 FT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NEARBY AND COULD
OCCASIONALLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL PREVAIL
DURING AFTER 13Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR
WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A SHOWERS PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT FROM DEVELOPING
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DROP US INTO THE MVFR AFTER 09Z. ADDITIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND
THROUGH THE AIRFIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST
AND NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...PEAKING AROUND 20
KT...BEFORE FADING WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS STRONG ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH.

KSAV...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AROUND
600 FT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NEARBY AND COULD
OCCASIONALLY ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL PREVAIL
DURING AFTER 13Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
T-STORM MOVE THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR
WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 20-25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFFSHORE...BUT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCES POPS AS A RESULT...HIGHEST ON THE SC COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER
THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF
ADVECTION STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT...PLUS NEARBY
SEA FOG OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SKIRT COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
SEA FOG IS STILL PREVALENT AS PER GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD AND THUS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 270216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED HAVE REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 270216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED HAVE REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 270216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED HAVE REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 270216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES REACHING A MAX AROUND 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED HAVE REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOWER 50S IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 270158
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     MED   62%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     LOW   42%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE SE GULF COAST REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WAS SLIDING THROUGH SE GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM A THICKER
MID DECK WERE DWINDLING AS THEY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING INDICATED SOME DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR IN THE
SUB-CLOUD REGION WHICH WERE TENDING TO DIMINISH PCPN AS IT
EVAPORATES ON THE WAY DOWN. WE HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL RAINS APPEAR TO STILL BE MAINLY OFF
TO THE WEST AT DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
NOT MUCH PROSPECT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ANYWHERE. TEMPS SHOULD
BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER THE RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF ADVECTION
STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE RAISED
FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES
WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 270142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE SE GULF COAST REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WAS SLIDING THROUGH SE GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM A THICKER
MID DECK WERE DWINDLING AS THEY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING INDICATED SOME DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR IN THE
SUB-CLOUD REGION WHICH WERE TENDING TO DIMINISH PCPN AS IT
EVAPORATES ON THE WAY DOWN. WE HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL RAINS APPEAR TO STILL BE MAINLY OFF
TO THE WEST AT DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
NOT MUCH PROSPECT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ANYWHERE. TEMPS SHOULD
BE LINGERING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH DO NOT FAVOR FOG HOWEVER THE RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY RESULT IN SOME FORM OF ADVECTION
STRATUS FROM THE GULF OR ATLC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WERE RAISED
FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES
WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAINS MOVE INTO SE GEORGIA...AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE
IN A DRIER DEEP LAYER BELOW THE PRECIPITATING HIGHER CLOUD DECKS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAINS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WAS BLEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER LATEST
KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY
PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. LOWS WILL ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 262341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAINS MOVE INTO SE GEORGIA...AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE
IN A DRIER DEEP LAYER BELOW THE PRECIPITATING HIGHER CLOUD DECKS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAINS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WAS BLEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER LATEST
KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY
PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. LOWS WILL ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 262341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAINS MOVE INTO SE GEORGIA...AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE
IN A DRIER DEEP LAYER BELOW THE PRECIPITATING HIGHER CLOUD DECKS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAINS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WAS BLEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER LATEST
KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY
PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. LOWS WILL ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAINS MOVE INTO SE GEORGIA...AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE
IN A DRIER DEEP LAYER BELOW THE PRECIPITATING HIGHER CLOUD DECKS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAINS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WAS BLEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER LATEST
KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY
PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. LOWS WILL ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSING IN ON DAYBREAK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...LIGHT RAINS FALLING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAINS AROUND SAVANNAH THROUGH
MID EVENING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS EVENING AT KCHS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE ADVECTION STRATUS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTER
MID MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. LATER IN
THE DAY SOME ENHANCED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AT KCHS...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LIKELY TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS MORE
RESILIENT TO SHIFTING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM PER DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT DISPATCH OFFICES. THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODEL
K-INDEX VALUES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS
MOISTURE LIMITED AND MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ENHANCE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET-MAX.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASES. RAIN MAY BE DELAYED IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS UNTIL PRE-DAWN HOURS. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
HOWEVER AND THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW THREAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOS
CONSENSUS USED FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 262325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODEL
K-INDEX VALUES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS
MOISTURE LIMITED AND MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ENHANCE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET-MAX.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASES. RAIN MAY BE DELAYED IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS UNTIL PRE-DAWN HOURS. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
HOWEVER AND THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW THREAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOS
CONSENSUS USED FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 262316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262159
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
559 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODEL
K-INDEX VALUES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS
MOISTURE LIMITED AND MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ENHANCE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET-MAX.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASES. RAIN MAY BE DELAYED IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS UNTIL PRE-DAWN HOURS. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
HOWEVER AND THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW THREAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOS
CONSENSUS USED FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO TREND SE OUT
OF OUR FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SECONDARY UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARANCE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS PROVIDES CONCERN FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY FROST...LATE SAT NT/EARLY SUN. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WITH IT. ECMWF SLOWER TO MOVE IT
THROUGH WITH APPEARANCE OF BETTER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE POPS
AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE IN BY TUE. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN WED...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THU. ENSEMBLE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS LOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUS A MID-LEVEL CAP. THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT. BELIEVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING BELIEVE THE CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
OR NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS
SHOW LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 262015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISRUPT
THE NECESSARY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT WHEN
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE.
BOTH THE 26/12Z GFS AND NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PER LATEST KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT
EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND.
LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG...TRICKY SEA FOG FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WHICH IS DIMINISHING PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
COLDER SHELF WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ACROSS BOTH GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF BACKING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SO
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG LINGERS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE FOG ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATER...OR
AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF IT...WILL LIKELY LIFT OR THIN OUT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK WITH THE STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RAP AND H3R VSBY
PROGS WHICH HAVE DONE QUITE WELL SO FAR TODAY.

WILL TAKE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL MARINE ZONES...BUT CANCEL IT FOR THE GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR THE FOG TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE
MAIN HARBOR ITSELF...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE AROUND FORT SUMTER. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR ATTM. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISRUPT
THE NECESSARY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT WHEN
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE.
BOTH THE 26/12Z GFS AND NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PER LATEST KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT
EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND.
LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG...TRICKY SEA FOG FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WHICH IS DIMINISHING PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
COLDER SHELF WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ACROSS BOTH GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF BACKING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SO
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG LINGERS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE FOG ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATER...OR
AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF IT...WILL LIKELY LIFT OR THIN OUT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK WITH THE STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RAP AND H3R VSBY
PROGS WHICH HAVE DONE QUITE WELL SO FAR TODAY.

WILL TAKE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL MARINE ZONES...BUT CANCEL IT FOR THE GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR THE FOG TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE
MAIN HARBOR ITSELF...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE AROUND FORT SUMTER. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR ATTM. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 262015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISRUPT
THE NECESSARY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT WHEN
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE.
BOTH THE 26/12Z GFS AND NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PER LATEST KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT
EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND.
LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG...TRICKY SEA FOG FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WHICH IS DIMINISHING PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
COLDER SHELF WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ACROSS BOTH GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF BACKING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SO
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG LINGERS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE FOG ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATER...OR
AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF IT...WILL LIKELY LIFT OR THIN OUT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK WITH THE STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RAP AND H3R VSBY
PROGS WHICH HAVE DONE QUITE WELL SO FAR TODAY.

WILL TAKE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL MARINE ZONES...BUT CANCEL IT FOR THE GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR THE FOG TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE
MAIN HARBOR ITSELF...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE AROUND FORT SUMTER. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR ATTM. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 262015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISRUPT
THE NECESSARY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT WHEN
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE.
BOTH THE 26/12Z GFS AND NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PER LATEST KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT
EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND.
LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG...TRICKY SEA FOG FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WHICH IS DIMINISHING PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
COLDER SHELF WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ACROSS BOTH GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF BACKING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SO
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG LINGERS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE FOG ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATER...OR
AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF IT...WILL LIKELY LIFT OR THIN OUT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK WITH THE STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RAP AND H3R VSBY
PROGS WHICH HAVE DONE QUITE WELL SO FAR TODAY.

WILL TAKE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL MARINE ZONES...BUT CANCEL IT FOR THE GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR THE FOG TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE
MAIN HARBOR ITSELF...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE AROUND FORT SUMTER. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR ATTM. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 262014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 261847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     LOW   58%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...LG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 261847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     LOW   58%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     LOW   58%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...LG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 261847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE  -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     LOW   58%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...LG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261808
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
208 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIA