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000
FXUS62 KCAE 241752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 241741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP WINDS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. OBSERVATIONS
AT FORT PULASKI...FOLLY BEACH...AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAVE
ROUTINELY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES.

LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY OCCURRING
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW
AS I THINK THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AS IT USUALLY IS
IN SUCH ONSHORE REGIMES. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. KCHS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY...BUT
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 241739
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 241739
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS. BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE TO SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS...LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 241655
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1700 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV.

AT 1015 EST THURSDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST
AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER AS WINDS VEER TO
THE SE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT...WINDS WILL VEER SE SOON...STAYING THERE UNTIL FRI MORNING
WHEN THE VEER THE E. MVFR CIG ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION. MVFR RETURNS AFTER
DAYBREAK. THE BEST BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TOWARD MIDDAY
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS OVER WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...BY AFTER MIDNIGHT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FALLING TO IFR BEFORE DAWN. CIGS RETURN TO
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG BASED VSBY
RESTRICITONS. ALTHOUGH A WIDE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
FROM DAYBREAK ON...THE BEST BET IS LATER IN THE MORNING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SSW EARLY
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1053 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND
HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 241453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1053 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE MET...SO WILL FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
60 DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND
HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR ONCE THE
STRATUS DEVELOPS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 241431
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1015 EST THURSDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST
AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER AS WINDS VEER TO
THE SE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS
DRY HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACRS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE
TO SE AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL FILAMENTS OF
CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS EARLY THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHWRS AND DECAYING TSTMS
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE TENN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ENTER THE NC
MTNS BEFORE 12Z. CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP AT KAVL BEFORE END OF TAF
PERIOD TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER PLANING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE MIXING
HEIGHTS BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 241425
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1015 EST THURSDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST
AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER AS WINDS VEER TO
THE SE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS
DRY HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACRS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE
TO SE AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL FILAMENTS OF
CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS EARLY THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHWRS AND DECAYING TSTMS
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE TENN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ENTER THE NC
MTNS BEFORE 12Z. CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP AT KAVL BEFORE END OF TAF
PERIOD TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER PLANING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ARISE MIXING
HEIGHTS BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS62 KGSP 241418
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY
STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1015 EST THURSDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST
AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
GULF COAST...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER AS WINDS VEER TO
THE SE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS
DRY HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACRS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE
TO SE AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL FILAMENTS OF
CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS EARLY THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHWRS AND DECAYING TSTMS
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE TENN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ENTER THE NC
MTNS BEFORE 12Z. CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP AT KAVL BEFORE END OF TAF
PERIOD TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241416
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY OCCURRING
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST
MARINE...ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCAE 241042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
WITH NE WINDS. HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...AND
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...WITH VFR BASES. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS...AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
WITH NE WINDS. HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...AND
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...WITH VFR BASES. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS...AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY
STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE CHANGES TO THE AVIATION
GRIDS FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AS OF 300 AM...DRY HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
FAST-MOVING TROF AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...THEN ENTER THE TENN VALLEY TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE WILL
BE SOME RECOVERY OF DWPTS AND LIGHTER WINDS...SO NOT EXPECTING AS
HIGH OF FIRE DANGER AS YESTERDAY.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS
DRY HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACRS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE
TO SE AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL FILAMENTS OF
CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS EARLY THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHWRS AND DECAYING TSTMS
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE TENN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ENTER THE NC
MTNS BEFORE 12Z. CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP AT KAVL BEFORE END OF TAF
PERIOD TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
24/06Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 09Z RAP HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL EXPAND THE
AREA OF MID-80S TO MATCH THIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
MADE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND...AIDED BY THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16...BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TO THE LOWER-MID
80S ACROSS ELSEWHERE...WARMEST FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH THE SHELF
WATERS STILL RATHER COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND...AIDED BY THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16...BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TO THE LOWER-MID
80S ACROSS ELSEWHERE...WARMEST FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH THE SHELF
WATERS STILL RATHER COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CSRA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SW EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE AND INCREASED IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SO...NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 240719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CSRA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SW EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE AND INCREASED IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SO...NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KGSP 240707
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY
STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...DRY HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
FAST-MOVING TROF AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...THEN ENTER THE TENN VALLEY TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE WILL
BE SOME RECOVERY OF DWPTS AND LIGHTER WINDS...SO NOT EXPECTING AS
HIGH OF FIRE DANGER AS YESTERDAY.

HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN A THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS LOOK TO TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE...BUT LOSE STEAM
AS THEY CROSS ERN TENN DURING THE WEE MORNING HOURS. THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES SHOW A SLGT RISK TO OUR WEST...WITH
GENERAL THUNDER RISK FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE NC MTNS. I WILL KEEP
SOME POPS CREEPING INTO THE WRN ZONES LATE TNGT...WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST WEAKENED SHWRS TO THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEAMPLIFYING BUT COHERENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS ON
FRI. DECAYING CONVECTION MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS FRI MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FROPA. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LINE UP OVER
SE PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN...WITH 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO EARLY
FRI EVENING IN BRIEF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONSENSUS ON AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING N OF THE
REGION OVER VA THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA ON FRI...MAXES
WILL BE HIGHER SAT AND SUNDAY IN BETTER INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THU...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT WOBBLES
EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST MON THROUGH WED. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GRADUALLY BUILDING SW
FLOW AND BANDS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP
VORTEX WILL BE HARD TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE TUE THROUGH WED PERIOD AS A
BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT...PROBABLY TUE OR WED...BUT THAT TIMING
CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN YET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NEAR CLIMO TUE...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXES BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A N-S
AXIS OF DRY HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
THE WINDS TO VEER FROM NE OVERNIGHT TO SE BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHUD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL
FILAMENTS OF CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 240601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM...TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SO NO
CHANGES NEEDED EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

AT 1030 PM EDT... VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES NEEDED IN LATE EVENING
UPDATE.  HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS CONTINUE... GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH... BUT WEAKENING TREND WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION DEVELOPS. AT 10 PM... NOAA/ESRL PROFILER AT MARION STILL
HAD FAIRLY DEEP LAYER... TO ABOUT 8000 FT... OF NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KT WHILE OLD FORT PROFILER AT THE FOOT OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT DISPLAYED A VARIABLE WIND AT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 4500 FEET. NEW NAM INDICATES SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 2 AM... SO
EXPECT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE PER THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 730 PM EDT... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD-FREE SKY CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NEAR HUDSON BAY BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH HAS SUPPRESSED MOISTURE
FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SO CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AIR IS SO DRY THAT
FOG... EVEN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS... SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR FROST... BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN ONLY PATCHY FROST AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

AT 445 PM EDT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
REMAINING GUSTINESS IN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 150 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN MID TO
UPPER TEEN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES.

OVERNIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OK/TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE OR BECOME CALM DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE LIMITED MIXING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MAY PROVIDE WEAK LLVL WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK WAA...I WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT INVERSE
LAPSE RATE IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MTNS. BLENDING OF THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I WILL INDICATE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT BELOW FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATX...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF NORMAL...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA THU NITE AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE THU NITE...BRINGING CHC POP TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD FORCING MOVES IN FRI MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING LIKELY POP TO THE MTNS AND GOOD CHC POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER OVER NE GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POP TO 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS. BEST CHC POP SHIFTS TO THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE
GFS STILL HAS MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM...BUT ITS VALUES HAVE
DECREASED. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...IT GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE LIGHT RANGE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
EITHER. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY WX AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH
A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRADING OFF RUN TO RUN AS TO WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AND POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR DAMMING. FOR NOW I STAYED WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER EC SOLUTION.

BY MONDAY PW/S BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE GFS AND LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...THOUGH IT HAS BASICALLY THE SAME SOLUTION. AGAIN...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH CONCERNING THE WPC GRIDS AND I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS PW/S INCREASE TO ALMOST 1.75 INCHES AND
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE LLVL FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX SHIFTS
EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THE MOIST
WORKED-OVER AIRMASS AND GENERALLY VEERED LLVL FLOW DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE TO THE HIGH END SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY
TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MON/TUE
PART OF THE FORECAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7 PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHUNKS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...SO THE
TROUGH SHOULD DEFINITELY PARK OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW ADVECTIVE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES ARE...THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE COOLING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A N-S
AXIS OF DRY HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
THE WINDS TO VEER FROM NE OVERNIGHT TO SE BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHUD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL
FILAMENTS OF CIRRUS...IT SHUD BE SKC THRU THIS AFTN. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/LGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT 05Z. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SW TONIGHT AS
HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND AND POSSIBLY SURFACE WIND TO SHIFT TO NE AND PICK UP IN SPEED
LATER TONIGHT...ALSO ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS AT FOG PRONE AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 240526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT 05Z. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SW TONIGHT AS
HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND AND POSSIBLY SURFACE WIND TO SHIFT TO NE AND PICK UP IN SPEED
LATER TONIGHT...ALSO ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS AT FOG PRONE AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY REQUIRED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1046 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST INCREASE IN NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT
IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS
SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 240231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1030 PM EDT... VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES NEEDED IN LATE EVENING
UPDATE.  HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS CONTINUE... GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH... BUT WEAKENING TREND WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION DEVELOPS. AT 10 PM... NOAA/ESRL PROFILER AT MARION STILL
HAD FAIRLY DEEP LAYER... TO ABOUT 8000 FT... OF NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KT WHILE OLD FORT PROFILER AT THE FOOT OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT DISPLAYED A VARIABLE WIND AT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 4500 FEET. NEW NAM INDICATES SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 2 AM... SO
EXPECT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE PER THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 730 PM EDT... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD-FREE SKY CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NEAR HUDSON BAY BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH HAS SUPPRESSED MOISTURE
FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SO CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AIR IS SO DRY THAT
FOG... EVEN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS... SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR FROST... BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN ONLY PATCHY FROST AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

AT 445 PM EDT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
REMAINING GUSTINESS IN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 150 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN MID TO
UPPER TEEN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES.

OVERNIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OK/TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE OR BECOME CALM DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE LIMITED MIXING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MAY PROVIDE WEAK LLVL WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK WAA...I WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT INVERSE
LAPSE RATE IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MTNS. BLENDING OF THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I WILL INDICATE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT BELOW FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATX...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF NORMAL...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA THU NITE AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE THU NITE...BRINGING CHC POP TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD FORCING MOVES IN FRI MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING LIKELY POP TO THE MTNS AND GOOD CHC POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER OVER NE GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POP TO 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS. BEST CHC POP SHIFTS TO THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE
GFS STILL HAS MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM...BUT ITS VALUES HAVE
DECREASED. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...IT GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE LIGHT RANGE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
EITHER. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY WX AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH
A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRADING OFF RUN TO RUN AS TO WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AND POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR DAMMING. FOR NOW I STAYED WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER EC SOLUTION.

BY MONDAY PW/S BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE GFS AND LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...THOUGH IT HAS BASICALLY THE SAME SOLUTION. AGAIN...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH CONCERNING THE WPC GRIDS AND I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS PW/S INCREASE TO ALMOST 1.75 INCHES AND
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE LLVL FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX SHIFTS
EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THE MOIST
WORKED-OVER AIRMASS AND GENERALLY VEERED LLVL FLOW DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE TO THE HIGH END SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY
TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MON/TUE
PART OF THE FORECAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7 PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHUNKS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...SO THE
TROUGH SHOULD DEFINITELY PARK OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW ADVECTIVE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES ARE...THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE COOLING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CEILING UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR HUDSON BAY BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING NORTHEAST... BUT SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS. AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY... SURFACE INVERSION DISSIPATES AND VEERING WIND TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS HIGH DRIFTS EAST. CIRRUS CLOUD WILL INCREASE BY LATE
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&


.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240148
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...THIS PROCESS
APPEARED TO BE EVOLVING SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY THAN INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THUS DELAYED THE ONSET OF INCREASING NE WINDS
ACCORDINGLY. EVENTUALLY...NE WINDS COULD SURGE TO AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 232356
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 730 PM EDT... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD-FREE SKY CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NEAR HUDSON BAY BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH HAS SUPPRESSED MOISTURE
FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SO CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AIR IS SO DRY THAT
FOG... EVEN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS... SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR FROST... BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN ONLY PATCHY FROST AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 445 PM EDT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
REMAINING GUSTINESS IN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 150 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN MID TO
UPPER TEEN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES.

OVERNIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OK/TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE OR BECOME CALM DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE LIMITED MIXING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MAY PROVIDE WEAK LLVL WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK WAA...I WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT INVERSE
LAPSE RATE IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MTNS. BLENDING OF THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I WILL INDICATE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT BELOW FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATX...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF NORMAL...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA THU NITE AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE THU NITE...BRINGING CHC POP TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD FORCING MOVES IN FRI MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING LIKELY POP TO THE MTNS AND GOOD CHC POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER OVER NE GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POP TO 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS. BEST CHC POP SHIFTS TO THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE
GFS STILL HAS MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM...BUT ITS VALUES HAVE
DECREASED. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...IT GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE LIGHT RANGE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
EITHER. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY WX AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH
A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRADING OFF RUN TO RUN AS TO WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AND POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR DAMMING. FOR NOW I STAYED WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER EC SOLUTION.

BY MONDAY PW/S BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE GFS AND LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...THOUGH IT HAS BASICALLY THE SAME SOLUTION. AGAIN...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH CONCERNING THE WPC GRIDS AND I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS PW/S INCREASE TO ALMOST 1.75 INCHES AND
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE LLVL FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX SHIFTS
EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THE MOIST
WORKED-OVER AIRMASS AND GENERALLY VEERED LLVL FLOW DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE TO THE HIGH END SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY
TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MON/TUE
PART OF THE FORECAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7 PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHUNKS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...SO THE
TROUGH SHOULD DEFINITELY PARK OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW ADVECTIVE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES ARE...THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE COOLING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CEILING UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR HUDSON BAY BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING NORTHEAST... BUT SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LOW DURING THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS. AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...
SURFACE INVERSION DISSIPATES AND VEERING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH DRIFTS EAST. CIRRUS CLOUD WILL INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&


.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LGL








000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 232250
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS COULD SURGE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS SC
WATERS BY LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS GA WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 1-2 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 232054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 445 PM... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
REMAINING GUSTINESS IN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 150 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN MID TO
UPPER TEEN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES.

OVERNIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OK/TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE OR BECOME CALM DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE LIMITED MIXING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MAY PROVIDE WEAK LLVL WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK WAA...I WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT INVERSE
LAPSE RATE IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MTNS. BLENDING OF THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I WILL INDICATE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT BELOW FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATX...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF NORMAL...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA THU NITE AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE THU NITE...BRINGING CHC POP TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD FORCING MOVES IN FRI MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING LIKELY POP TO THE MTNS AND GOOD CHC POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER OVER NE GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POP TO 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS. BEST CHC POP SHIFTS TO THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE
GFS STILL HAS MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM...BUT ITS VALUES HAVE
DECREASED. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...IT GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE LIGHT RANGE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
EITHER. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY WX AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH
A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRADING OFF RUN TO RUN AS TO WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AND POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR DAMMING. FOR NOW I STAYED WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER EC SOLUTION.

BY MONDAY PW/S BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE GFS AND LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...THOUGH IT HAS BASICALLY THE SAME SOLUTION. AGAIN...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH CONCERNING THE WPC GRIDS AND I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS PW/S INCREASE TO ALMOST 1.75 INCHES AND
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE LLVL FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX SHIFTS
EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THE MOIST
WORKED-OVER AIRMASS AND GENERALLY VEERED LLVL FLOW DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE TO THE HIGH END SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY
TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MON/TUE
PART OF THE FORECAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7 PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHUNKS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...SO THE
TROUGH SHOULD DEFINITELY PARK OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW ADVECTIVE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES ARE...THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE COOLING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SPLIT
TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN CENTER REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY
18Z THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RANGING FROM NW THIS AFTERNOON TO SE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NE TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING 5 TO
10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING. FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AND CONTRAILS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EXPIRATION AS
THE VERY LOW RH VALUES AND LOW END WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER THU WITH LOWER TEMPS AND
INCREASED DEW POINTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LGL/NED
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH
DOES SO...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND RIDGE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES...A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20
NM...INCREASING TO 2-3 FT LATE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231853
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN MID TO
UPPER TEEN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES.

OVERNIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OK/TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE OR BECOME CALM DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE LIMITED MIXING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MAY PROVIDE WEAK LLVL WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK WAA...I WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT INVERSE
LAPSE RATE IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MTNS. BLENDING OF THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I WILL INDICATE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT BELOW FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATX...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF NORMAL...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA THU NITE AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE THU NITE...BRINGING CHC POP TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD FORCING MOVES IN FRI MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING LIKELY POP TO THE MTNS AND GOOD CHC POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER OVER NE GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POP TO 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS. BEST CHC POP SHIFTS TO THE I-77
CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE
GFS STILL HAS MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM...BUT ITS VALUES HAVE
DECREASED. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...IT GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE LIGHT RANGE.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
EITHER. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY WX AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH
A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRADING OFF RUN TO RUN AS TO WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AND POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR DAMMING. FOR NOW I STAYED WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER EC SOLUTION.

BY MONDAY PW/S BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE GFS AND LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...THOUGH IT HAS BASICALLY THE SAME SOLUTION. AGAIN...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH CONCERNING THE WPC GRIDS AND I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS PW/S INCREASE TO ALMOST 1.75 INCHES AND
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE LLVL FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX SHIFTS
EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THE MOIST
WORKED-OVER AIRMASS AND GENERALLY VEERED LLVL FLOW DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE TO THE HIGH END SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY
TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MON/TUE
PART OF THE FORECAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7 PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHUNKS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...SO THE
TROUGH SHOULD DEFINITELY PARK OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW ADVECTIVE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES ARE...THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE COOLING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SPLIT
TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN CENTER REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY
18Z THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RANGING FROM NW THIS AFTERNOON TO SE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NE TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING 5 TO
10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING. FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AND CONTRAILS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EXPIRATION AS
THE VERY LOW RH VALUES AND LOW END WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER THU WITH LOWER TEMPS AND
INCREASED DEW POINTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...RWH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THAN FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS...TEMPS...AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1050 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND VIEW OUT THE WINDOW
INDICATED THAT CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS NW WINDS WEAKEN. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS. THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED.

AS OF 645 AM...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THRU THE ENTIRE
CWFA...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING FOG AND INCREASE IN WINDS.
AGAIN...JUST UPDATED THE T/TD/WIND/WX GRIDS TO KEEP UP WITH TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

AS OF 430 AM...FOR THE 0830 UTC UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE FOOTHILLS...AND SHUD CROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. I UPDATED THE TEMP/DWPT/WIND/WX GRIDS THRU DAYBREAK
TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS.

AS OF 300 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CROSSING
THE NC MTNS...AS KAVL HAS A NW WIND. EAST OF THE MTNS...PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND EVEN LOCALLY DENSE IN A
COUPLE SPOTS. I STILL EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND CAA TO WIN OUT...AND NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DRY SFC HIGH PRES FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WITH A LITTLE MIXING...WILL DROP DWPTS INTO THE 20 AND
30S...RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACRS THE NC ZONES...SO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF NE FLOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF
THE NC MTNS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
LOOK GOOD...SO FROST WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENUF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE MIN TEMPS TO HOLD
OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...500 MB RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THU AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. SRLY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS BY LATE DAY AND THEN
IMPROVE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER WAVE EXTENDING SWD FROM A GREAT LAKES H5 LOW CENTER WILL SWING
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WRN HALF FRI
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY CLEAR ERN SECTIONS MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY EAST
OF THE MTNS...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN. SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO MOST AREAS THU AFTN...BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OR BETTER
ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WED...A FLAT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
EARLY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. W TO NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY
SAT...BUT WITH MAINLY MTN POPS ENCROACHING ON SUNDAY AFTN IN
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAXES TO RUN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE PINWHEELING PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD MON THROUGH
TUE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LINGERING SFC HIGH TO THE N EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH CAD UNDER THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. ANY WEAK CAD WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE REGION MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
TUESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY RESULTING. THE SLOWLY MOVING
BLOCKED PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SPLIT
TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN CENTER REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY
18Z THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RANGING FROM NW THIS AFTERNOON TO SE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NE TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING 5 TO
10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING. FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AND CONTRAILS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE MTNS NC PIEDMONT. WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...FUELS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS COORDINATED WITH LAND MANAGERS
YESTERDAY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THAT THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231737
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231500
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN WILL SET
UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND VIEW OUT THE WINDOW
INDICATED THAT CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS NW WINDS WEAKEN. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS. THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED.

AS OF 645 AM...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THRU THE ENTIRE
CWFA...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING FOG AND INCREASE IN WINDS.
AGAIN...JUST UPDATED THE T/TD/WIND/WX GRIDS TO KEEP UP WITH TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

AS OF 430 AM...FOR THE 0830 UTC UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE FOOTHILLS...AND SHUD CROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. I UPDATED THE TEMP/DWPT/WIND/WX GRIDS THRU DAYBREAK
TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS.

AS OF 300 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CROSSING
THE NC MTNS...AS KAVL HAS A NW WIND. EAST OF THE MTNS...PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND EVEN LOCALLY DENSE IN A
COUPLE SPOTS. I STILL EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND CAA TO WIN OUT...AND NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DRY SFC HIGH PRES FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WITH A LITTLE MIXING...WILL DROP DWPTS INTO THE 20 AND
30S...RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACRS THE NC ZONES...SO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF NE FLOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF
THE NC MTNS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
LOOK GOOD...SO FROST WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENUF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE MIN TEMPS TO HOLD
OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...500 MB RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THU AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. SRLY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS BY LATE DAY AND THEN
IMPROVE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER WAVE EXTENDING SWD FROM A GREAT LAKES H5 LOW CENTER WILL SWING
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WRN HALF FRI
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY CLEAR ERN SECTIONS MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY EAST
OF THE MTNS...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN. SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO MOST AREAS THU AFTN...BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OR BETTER
ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WED...A FLAT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
EARLY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. W TO NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY
SAT...BUT WITH MAINLY MTN POPS ENCROACHING ON SUNDAY AFTN IN
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAXES TO RUN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE PINWHEELING PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD MON THROUGH
TUE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LINGERING SFC HIGH TO THE N EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH CAD UNDER THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. ANY WEAK CAD WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE REGION MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
TUESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY RESULTING. THE SLOWLY MOVING
BLOCKED PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED BY THE TERMINAL...SO I THINK THE
THREAT OF GROUND FOG HAS ENDED THIS MORNING...AND A NLY WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR AND AIR MASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO ARND 8-10 KTS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE...AND MAY BRIEFLY MIX A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS PER THE NAM BUFKIT. BUT BY EARLY AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY GUSTS SHUD SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-8 KTS AND
BACK TO NE THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHUD PRECLUDE
ANY FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. N/NW WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH CHANNELED GUSTY VALLEY WINDS AT KAVL...TODAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND
LINGERING ACRS THE PIEDMONT SITES. AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE MTNS NC PIEDMONT. WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...FUELS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS COORDINATED WITH LAND MANAGERS
YESTERDAY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THAT THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST/BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...RIBBON OF IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231051
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN WILL SET
UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THRU THE ENTIRE
CWFA...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING FOG AND INCREASE IN WINDS.
AGAIN...JUST UPDATED THE T/TD/WIND/WX GRIDS TO KEEP UP WITH TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

AS OF 430 AM...FOR THE 0830 UTC UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE FOOTHILLS...AND SHUD CROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. I UPDATED THE TEMP/DWPT/WIND/WX GRIDS THRU DAYBREAK
TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS.

AS OF 300 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CROSSING
THE NC MTNS...AS KAVL HAS A NW WIND. EAST OF THE MTNS...PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND EVEN LOCALLY DENSE IN A
COUPLE SPOTS. I STILL EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND CAA TO WIN OUT...AND NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DRY SFC HIGH PRES FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WITH A LITTLE MIXING...WILL DROP DWPTS INTO THE 20 AND
30S...RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACRS THE NC ZONES...SO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF NE FLOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF
THE NC MTNS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
LOOK GOOD...SO FROST WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENUF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE MIN TEMPS TO HOLD
OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...500 MB RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THU AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. SRLY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS BY LATE DAY AND THEN
IMPROVE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER WAVE EXTENDING SWD FROM A GREAT LAKES H5 LOW CENTER WILL SWING
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WRN HALF FRI
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY CLEAR ERN SECTIONS MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY EAST
OF THE MTNS...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN. SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO MOST AREAS THU AFTN...BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OR BETTER
ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WED...A FLAT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
EARLY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. W TO NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY
SAT...BUT WITH MAINLY MTN POPS ENCROACHING ON SUNDAY AFTN IN
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAXES TO RUN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE PINWHEELING PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD MON THROUGH
TUE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LINGERING SFC HIGH TO THE N EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH CAD UNDER THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. ANY WEAK CAD WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE REGION MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
TUESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY RESULTING. THE SLOWLY MOVING
BLOCKED PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED BY THE TERMINAL...SO I THINK THE
THREAT OF GROUND FOG HAS ENDED THIS MORNING...AND A NLY WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR AND AIR MASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO ARND 8-10 KTS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE...AND MAY BRIEFLY MIX A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS PER THE NAM BUFKIT. BUT BY EARLY AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY GUSTS SHUD SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-8 KTS AND
BACK TO NE THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHUD PRECLUDE
ANY FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. N/NW WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH CHANNELED GUSTY VALLEY WINDS AT KAVL...TODAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND
LINGERING ACRS THE PIEDMONT SITES. AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE MTNS NC PIEDMONT. WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...FUELS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS COORDINATED WITH LAND MANAGERS
YESTERDAY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THAT THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230830
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN WILL SET
UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM...FOR THE 0830 UTC UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE FOOTHILLS...AND SHUD CROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. I UPDATED THE TEMP/DWPT/WIND/WX GRIDS THRU DAYBREAK
TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS.

AS OF 300 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CROSSING
THE NC MTNS...AS KAVL HAS A NW WIND. EAST OF THE MTNS...PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND EVEN LOCALLY DENSE IN A
COUPLE SPOTS. I STILL EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND CAA TO WIN OUT...AND NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DRY SFC HIGH PRES FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WITH A LITTLE MIXING...WILL DROP DWPTS INTO THE 20 AND
30S...RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACRS THE NC ZONES...SO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF NE FLOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF
THE NC MTNS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
LOOK GOOD...SO FROST WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENUF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE MIN TEMPS TO HOLD
OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...500 MB RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THU AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. SRLY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS BY LATE DAY AND THEN
IMPROVE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER WAVE EXTENDING SWD FROM A GREAT LAKES H5 LOW CENTER WILL SWING
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WRN HALF FRI
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY CLEAR ERN SECTIONS MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY EAST
OF THE MTNS...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN. SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO MOST AREAS THU AFTN...BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OR BETTER
ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WED...A FLAT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
EARLY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. W TO NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY
SAT...BUT WITH MAINLY MTN POPS ENCROACHING ON SUNDAY AFTN IN
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAXES TO RUN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE PINWHEELING PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD MON THROUGH
TUE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LINGERING SFC HIGH TO THE N EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH CAD UNDER THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. ANY WEAK CAD WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE REGION MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
TUESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY RESULTING. THE SLOWLY MOVING
BLOCKED PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT THE TERMINAL ASOS THIS
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE ON GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. THE DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT TIME OF 06Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS 2F...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH THAT SAID...DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN ACRS THE
NC PIEDMONT...AND A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU BEFORE DAYBREAK. SO
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE...I THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
TAF. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...IT SHUD
BE A QUIET TAF PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NW WIND THAT
MAY APPROACH 10 KTS THIS AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...BASED ON THE LIGHT RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY...ONLY KGSP
SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINAL.
THE OTHER SITES HAVE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 4-10F...EXCEPT 2F AT KAVL.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT...AND ADVECT DRY AIR
AND SOME MIXING...ESP AT KAVL WHERE CHANNELED VALLEY WINDS SHUD PICK
UP TO ABOUT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS BY DAYBREAK. KAVL WAS CALM AT TIME OF
TAF ISSUANCE...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE MTNS NC PIEDMONT. WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...FUELS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS COORDINATED WITH LAND MANAGERS
YESTERDAY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THAT THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.  WILL
INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR AT FOG PRONE
AGS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230736
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITHIN A LARGE RIBBON OF DNVA/SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUNDS LEFT OVER FROM RAINS TUESDAY
EVENING ARE SUPPORTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS FOG COULD SPREAD EAST AND
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT FORECASTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER UNTIL MID-
MORNING OR SO. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP...BUT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY FOG THAT TRIES TO
FORM.

TODAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KGSP 230710
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY PATTERN WILL SET
UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CROSSING
THE NC MTNS...AS KAVL HAS A NW WIND. EAST OF THE MTNS...PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND EVEN LOCALLY DENSE IN A
COUPLE SPOTS. I STILL EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND CAA TO WIN OUT...AND NO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DRY SFC HIGH PRES FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH WITH A LITTLE MIXING...WILL DROP DWPTS INTO THE 20 AND
30S...RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ACRS THE NC ZONES...SO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF NE FLOW WILL LINGER ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACRS MUCH OF
THE NC MTNS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
LOOK GOOD...SO FROST WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENUF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE MIN TEMPS TO HOLD
OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...500 MB RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THU AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. SRLY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS BY LATE DAY AND THEN
IMPROVE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER WAVE EXTENDING SWD FROM A GREAT LAKES H5 LOW CENTER WILL SWING
EASTWARD AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WRN HALF FRI
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY CLEAR ERN SECTIONS MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY EAST
OF THE MTNS...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS FRI AFTN. SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AT 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO MOST AREAS THU AFTN...BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OR BETTER
ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WED...A FLAT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
EARLY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. W TO NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY
SAT...BUT WITH MAINLY MTN POPS ENCROACHING ON SUNDAY AFTN IN
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAXES TO RUN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE PINWHEELING PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD MON THROUGH
TUE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LINGERING SFC HIGH TO THE N EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH CAD UNDER THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. ANY WEAK CAD WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE REGION MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
TUESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY RESULTING. THE SLOWLY MOVING
BLOCKED PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT THE TERMINAL ASOS THIS
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE ON GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. THE DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT TIME OF 06Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS 2F...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH THAT SAID...DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN ACRS THE
NC PIEDMONT...AND A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU BEFORE DAYBREAK. SO
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE...I THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
TAF. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...IT SHUD
BE A QUIET TAF PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NW WIND THAT
MAY APPROACH 10 KTS THIS AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...BASED ON THE LIGHT RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY...ONLY KGSP
SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINAL.
THE OTHER SITES HAVE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 4-10F...EXCEPT 2F AT KAVL.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT...AND ADVECT DRY AIR
AND SOME MIXING...ESP AT KAVL WHERE CHANNELED VALLEY WINDS SHUD PICK
UP TO ABOUT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS BY DAYBREAK. KAVL WAS CALM AT TIME OF
TAF ISSUANCE...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE MTNS NC PIEDMONT. WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...FUELS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS COORDINATED WITH LAND MANAGERS
YESTERDAY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THAT THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSSED THE TENN
VALLEY...AND SHUD PUSH THRU THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...THERE IS ALREADY SOME DRY ADVECTION/MIXING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL PATCHY FOG OUT
THERE. I UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...PERHAPS
BUMPING UP FOG COVERAGE/WORDING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED FROM THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1035 PM...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. IN FACT...THE REAL PUSH OF SURFACE
DRY AIR IS REALLY JUST NOW BEGINNING ACROSS EAST TENN. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AREA OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...AND WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
AREA...SOME POCKETS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO FORM. SINCE IT/S GOING TO
BE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES...WE HAVE
ADDED QUITE A BIT MORE FOG TO THE FORECAST SUITE...PRETTY MUCH
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME AMOUNT OF RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN A FEW AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE WOULD THEN EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN
VISBY AFTER 06Z...SUCH THAT LITTLE FOG IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE.
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL TO NEAR CLIMO
IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

AS OF 745 PM...POPS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GREAT TN VALLEY/NORTH GEORGIA ATTM...ALONG WHICH REMAINS A DECENT
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS UNINSPIRED TO
SAY THE LEAST. WILL NEVERTHELESS CARRY SOME TOKEN CHANCES ALONG THE
TENN BORDER...WHERE A BRIEF FLARE UP IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND RECEIVES SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM A NW UPSLOPE FLOW.

AS OF 245 PM...RECENT KGSP AND TCLT RADAR IMAGES INDICATED CLUSTERS
OF SHRA ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MOVING EAST BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW TSRA
MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHRA ARE TIMED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN
22-00Z...WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHRA REMAINING NEAR THE TN LINE WELL
INTO THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...SKY COVER
WILL DECREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK CAA ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE HIGH ARRIVES...GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTNS MAY YIELD A SMALL PATCH OF HIGH WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKY SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
U60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 70S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE ABOVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE AND THU AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH WED NITE THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE
THU. EXPECT LOWS WED NITE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE NC MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENUF FOR FROST.
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THU. HIGHS WILL END UP NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA IN THE FLAT TROF MOVING INTO
THE ERN CONUS LATE THU NITE AND FRI. GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...HAS
INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BRING CHC POP INTO THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE
LATE THU NITE. STILL KEEP LIKELY POP LIMITED TO THE TN BORDER FRI
MORNING...BUT BRING GOOD CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THAT TIME.
TAPER POP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SMALL
PERIOD OF LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY
FRI EVENING. SHEAR LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL DOES
NOT REACH THE STRONG CATEGORY. OPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS ONLY WEAK VALUES...EVEN IN MUCAPE. THEREFORE...
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP...BUT ONLY A LOW CHC...AT BEST...FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
EXCESSIVE EITHER. LOWS THU NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
FRI AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NITE WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY BACK DOOR
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS WARM FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING DRIVEN BY AN EASTWARD
MIGRATING BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF.  MODEL DISCONTINUITY
REMAINS PREVALENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHIFTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OHIO
VALLEY RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP A WEDGE CONFIGURATION ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC
EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF LEANS TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT AS CAD LIKE REGIME INHIBITS WARM FRONTAL SURGE.
THUS...AT THIS RANGE DECIDED TO RAMP POPS UP TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
WITH MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SKY COVER INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
ACTIVATION AND POTENTIAL PRECIPIATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT THE TERMINAL ASOS THIS
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE ON GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. THE DEWPT
DEPRESSION AT TIME OF 06Z TAF ISSUANCE WAS 2F...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH THAT SAID...DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN ACRS THE
NC PIEDMONT...AND A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU BEFORE DAYBREAK. SO
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE...I THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
TAF. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...IT SHUD
BE A QUIET TAF PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NW WIND THAT
MAY APPROACH 10 KTS THIS AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...BASED ON THE LIGHT RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY...ONLY KGSP
SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINAL.
THE OTHER SITES HAVE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 4-10F...EXCEPT 2F AT KAVL.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT...AND ADVECT DRY AIR
AND SOME MIXING...ESP AT KAVL WHERE CHANNELED VALLEY WINDS SHUD PICK
UP TO ABOUT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS BY DAYBREAK. KAVL WAS CALM AT TIME OF
TAF ISSUANCE...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND ATTENDANT
DNVA/SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO
REFORM AS THE HIGHER CLOUD CANOPIES PUSH OFFSHORE. A LIGHTER WIND
FIELD COUPLED WITH WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
SUNRISE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SOME FOG IS LIKELY. WILL BE WATCHING THIS AREA
CAREFULLY FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...NUDGED
LOWS THIS MORNING UP A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KGSP 230244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. IN FACT...THE REAL PUSH OF SURFACE
DRY AIR IS REALLY JUST NOW BEGINNING ACROSS EAST TENN. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AREA OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...AND WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
AREA...SOME POCKETS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO FORM. SINCE IT/S GOING TO
BE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES...WE HAVE
ADDED QUITE A BIT MORE FOG TO THE FORECAST SUITE...PRETTY MUCH
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME AMOUNT OF RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN A FEW AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE WOULD THEN EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN
VISBY AFTER 06Z...SUCH THAT LITTLE FOG IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE.
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL TO NEAR CLIMO
IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

AS OF 745 PM...POPS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GREAT TN VALLEY/NORTH GEORGIA ATTM...ALONG WHICH REMAINS A DECENT
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS UNINSPIRED TO
SAY THE LEAST. WILL NEVERTHELESS CARRY SOME TOKEN CHANCES ALONG THE
TENN BORDER...WHERE A BRIEF FLARE UP IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND RECEIVES SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM A NW UPSLOPE FLOW.

AS OF 245 PM...RECENT KGSP AND TCLT RADAR IMAGES INDICATED CLUSTERS
OF SHRA ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MOVING EAST BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW TSRA
MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHRA ARE TIMED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN
22-00Z...WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHRA REMAINING NEAR THE TN LINE WELL
INTO THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...SKY COVER
WILL DECREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK CAA ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE HIGH ARRIVES...GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTNS MAY YIELD A SMALL PATCH OF HIGH WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKY SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
U60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 70S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE ABOVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE AND THU AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH WED NITE THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE
THU. EXPECT LOWS WED NITE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE NC MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENUF FOR FROST.
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THU. HIGHS WILL END UP NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA IN THE FLAT TROF MOVING INTO
THE ERN CONUS LATE THU NITE AND FRI. GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...HAS
INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BRING CHC POP INTO THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE
LATE THU NITE. STILL KEEP LIKELY POP LIMITED TO THE TN BORDER FRI
MORNING...BUT BRING GOOD CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THAT TIME.
TAPER POP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SMALL
PERIOD OF LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY
FRI EVENING. SHEAR LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL DOES
NOT REACH THE STRONG CATEGORY. OPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS ONLY WEAK VALUES...EVEN IN MUCAPE. THEREFORE...
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP...BUT ONLY A LOW CHC...AT BEST...FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
EXCESSIVE EITHER. LOWS THU NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
FRI AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NITE WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY BACK DOOR
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS WARM FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING DRIVEN BY AN EASTWARD
MIGRATING BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF.  MODEL DISCONTINUITY
REMAINS PREVALENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHIFTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OHIO
VALLEY RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP A WEDGE CONFIGURATION ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC
EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF LEANS TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT AS CAD LIKE REGIME INHIBITS WARM FRONTAL SURGE.
THUS...AT THIS RANGE DECIDED TO RAMP POPS UP TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
WITH MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SKY COVER INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
ACTIVATION AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL...AND EXPECT THE
LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE W/SW...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE NW
AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE ACTUAL FRONT AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS STILL BACK
ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY AS OF EARLY EVENING...SO THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY IN
THE OVERNIGHT...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT ATTM...SO HAVE OMITTED ANY FOG MENTION IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO CLT...ALTHOUGH FOG IS LESS OF A CONCERN AT
KAVL...AS WINDS SHOULD CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THERE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A HINT AMONG
GUIDANCE PACKAGES OF THE FOG POTENTIAL AT KAND THAT A 6SM WAS
INTRODUCED THERE PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOWER VISBY DEVELOPS THERE...OR ANYWHERE ELSE (OTHER THAN KAVL) FOR
THAT MATTER.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE WED THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIMINISHING AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN GENERALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY EVENING RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AT KCHS AND WERE POISED
TO EXIT KSAV. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND 12Z-
14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHERE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 222353
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT STALLING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER MAY ARRIVE
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...POPS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GREAT TN VALLEY/NORTH GEORGIA ATTM...ALONG WHICH REMAINS A DECENT
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS UNINSPIRED TO
SAY THE LEAST. WILL NEVERTHELESS CARRY SOME TOKEN CHANCES ALONG THE
TENN BORDER...WHERE A BRIEF FLARE UP IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND RECEIVES SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM A NW UPSLOPE FLOW.

AS OF 245 PM...RECENT KGSP AND TCLT RADAR IMAGES INDICATED CLUSTERS
OF SHRA ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MOVING EAST BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW TSRA
MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHRA ARE TIMED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN
22-00Z...WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SHRA REMAINING NEAR THE TN LINE WELL
INTO THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...SKY COVER
WILL DECREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK CAA ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE HIGH ARRIVES...GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTNS MAY YIELD A SMALL PATCH OF HIGH WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SKY SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
U60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 70S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE ABOVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND
30S SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE AND THU AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH WED NITE THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE
THU. EXPECT LOWS WED NITE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE NC MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENUF FOR FROST.
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THU. HIGHS WILL END UP NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA IN THE FLAT TROF MOVING INTO
THE ERN CONUS LATE THU NITE AND FRI. GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...HAS
INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BRING CHC POP INTO THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE
LATE THU NITE. STILL KEEP LIKELY POP LIMITED TO THE TN BORDER FRI
MORNING...BUT BRING GOOD CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THAT TIME.
TAPER POP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SMALL
PERIOD OF LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY
FRI EVENING. SHEAR LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL DOES
NOT REACH THE STRONG CATEGORY. OPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS ONLY WEAK VALUES...EVEN IN MUCAPE. THEREFORE...
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP...BUT ONLY A LOW CHC...AT BEST...FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
EXCESSIVE EITHER. LOWS THU NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
FRI AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NITE WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE POPS RAMP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY BACK DOOR
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS WARM FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING DRIVEN BY AN EASTWARD
MIGRATING BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF.  MODEL DISCONTINUITY
REMAINS PREVALENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHIFTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OHIO
VALLEY RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP A WEDGE CONFIGURATION ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC
EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF LEANS TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT AS CAD LIKE REGIME INHIBITS WARM FRONTAL SURGE.
THUS...AT THIS RANGE DECIDED TO RAMP POPS UP TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
WITH MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SKY COVER INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
ACTIVATION AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL...AND EXPECT THE
LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE W/SW...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE NW
AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE ACTUAL FRONT AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS STILL BACK
ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY AS OF EARLY EVENING...SO THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY IN
THE OVERNIGHT...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT ATTM...SO HAVE OMITTED ANY FOG MENTION IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO CLT...ALTHOUGH FOG IS LESS OF A CONCERN AT
KAVL...AS WINDS SHOULD CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THERE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A HINT AMONG
GUIDANCE PACKAGES OF THE FOG POTENTIAL AT KAND THAT A 6SM WAS
INTRODUCED THERE PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOWER VISBY DEVELOPS THERE...OR ANYWHERE ELSE (OTHER THAN KAVL) FOR
THAT MATTER.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE WED THRU THU. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...DRYING OUT BY SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222338
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE E/SE...DEEPER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. LIGHTNING WAS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO MULTICELL CONVECTION ALONG THE I-16
CORRIDOR WHERE A POOL OF SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES -2 TO -3C EXISTED ALONG/SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE N/W. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPES 500-700 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH MAINLY ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN NE ALONG THE SC
COAST WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THEN LESS THEN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS THIS EVENING...WHILE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAV. THEN...SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED WITHIN THE COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND 12Z-14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222207
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS
ADVANCING THROUGH INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING
TOWARD THE E/SE AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. DUE IN PART TO MIXED
LAYER CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG UPDRAFTS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY
DEEP OR PERSISTENT...THUS LIGHTNING REMAINED SPORADIC/FAIRLY
SPARSE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES 8-9 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES 800-900 J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH EVEN WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MOIST UPDRAFTS WILL BRIEFLY/OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT
A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND EVEN SMALL HAIL GIVEN
HAIL CAPES AS HIGH AS 100-200 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST
BELOW 10K FT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST EVENING POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY INLAND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE AT THE COAST.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAF/S
FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL AMEND TAFS IF NECESSARY GIVEN NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222023
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEARING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL GA...WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SOARED
INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE WHICH REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE COULD BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT STILL FORECASTING ABOUT A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH CAPE VALUES PEAKING UPWARDS OF AROUND 750
J/KG AND LI/S FALLING TO AS LOW AS -3C. UPDRAFT STRENGTH DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH GIVEN AN INVERTED V-SOUNDING AND MINIMAL
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 300-400 J/KG...AND ALSO SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST BELOW 10K FT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH







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