Home > Products > State Listing > South Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDGSP |  AFDCAE |  AFDCHS |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 180711
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF TODAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPSTREAM SRN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM THE TROUGH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE UPSTREAM
FEATURES CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
NEARLY ALL CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FL PANHANDLE
AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH NW PIEDMONT TEMPS FELL FAIRLY
RAPIDLY LAST EVENING HOURS...THE ENCROACHING BLANKET OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST THIS MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL KEEP A
DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST
QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY THUS SET
UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG THE SRN/SE
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN
BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE
AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A
CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 MB LOW
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ROUGLY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CWFA UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THRU
THE DAY. A SFC LOW WILL BE NEARLY RIGHT UNDER THE UPR LOW...WITH A
STIFF NE LLVL FLOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY STILL
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. I HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THRU THE DAY...WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. SFC
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY COOL AIR...SO
TAKING A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE...TEMPS WERE RATCHETED
DOWN...STAYING PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S IN THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IS
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND LLVL NE FLOW LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SUNDAY. I HAVE POP TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL NE FLOW...I DID BLEND IN CONSRAW TEMPS TO BUMP THEM
DOWN...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...SO NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PHASING OF REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM A CLOSED UPR LOW INVOF
CALIF AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT PROPAGATING LATITUDINAL TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH
ON INSTBY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH 600-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THE FRONT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...AND THE FCST
SNDGS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHWRS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR THE TN LINE...AS DOWNSLOPE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE
EAST OF THE MTNS.

AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WARMING A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CLOUD BASE FORECAST HAS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK
TODAY...WHILE OTHERS KEEP ANY CIGS AT MAINLY CIRRUS LEVELS EARLY ON.
WILL HEDGE WITH A SCT020 FORECAST BY 09Z...BUT GO WITH A CONSENSUS
VFR FORECAST. THE HIGHER LEVEL VFR OVERCAST WILL STEADILY LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO MVFR
THEN IFR CIGS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. NE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW AND GUSTS LATE AS SFC LOW
PRES OVER SE GA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY...EXCEPT FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR THIS MORNING AT KAND IN
WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE CAD LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
TODAY...EXCEPT TOGGLING BETWEEN SE AND NRLY AT KAVL. CIGS SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE S AS BETTER
UPGLIDE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVE. ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR LIKELY AFTER 03Z ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD N OF
THE SE GA COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE NELY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT AT THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     MED   68%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     MED   70%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     MED   73%     MED   75%
KAND       MED   79%     MED   66%     MED   71%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 180600
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
FRI AND TRACK EAST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPSTREAM SRN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE EJECTED EWD FROM THIS TROUGH
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
UPSTREAM FEATURES THUS FAR HAS BEEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...WITH NEARLY ALL CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE FL PANHANDLE AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH NW PIEDMONT TEMPS
FELL FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE ENCROACHING
BLANKET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST THIS MORNING.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL KEEP A
DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL THUS LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS
SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY
THUS SET UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG
THE SRN/SE ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS IN BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE LACK
OF A CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS PROVIDES ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE HIGHER
QPF PLACEMENT TO FOREGO A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY THU...PWATS AND DEEP LAYER RH DIMINISH THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY...SO RATES SHOULD TAPER OFF. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP AND SKY COVER WILL DIMINISH LEAVING A DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

MAX TEMP FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST
HIGH WILL HAVE RECENTLY DEPARTED...BUT WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
CONFLUENT UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN...THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON THRU
SATURDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUID FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THEN ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PHASING OF REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM A CLOSED UPR LOW INVOF
CALIF AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT PROPAGATING LATITUDINAL TROF
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH ON INSTBY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH 600-800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. OVERALL FORCING WITH THE FRONT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...AND
THE FCST SNDGS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHWRS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR THE TN LINE...AS DOWNSLOPE MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS.

AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WARMING A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD BASES HAS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK
TODAY...WHILE OTHERS KEEP ANY CIGS AT MAINLY CIRRUS LEVELS EARLY ON.
WILL HEDGE WITH A SCT020 FORECAST BY 09Z...BUT GO WITH A CONSENSUS
VFR FORECAST. THE HIGHER LEVEL VFR OVERCAST WILL STEADILY LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO MVFR
THEN IFR CIGS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. NE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW AND GUSTS LATE AS SFC LOW
PRES OVER SE GA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY...EXCEPT FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR THIS MORNING AT KAND IN
WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE CAD LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
TODAY...EXCEPT TOGGLING BETWEEN SE AND NRLY AT KAVL. CIGS SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
BETTER UPGLIDE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVE. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CIGS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR LIKELY AFTER 03Z ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRES
GRAD N OF THE SE GA COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE NELY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     MED   73%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  84%     MED   70%     MED   69%     MED   76%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 180519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ON THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE PACKAGE. HIGH CLOUDS WERE THICKENING AND SPREADING NE OVER
COASTAL CAROLINA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN LINE WITH GENERAL
SKY COVER TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. KEPT KCHS JUST
ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING RAINS TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 18Z-19Z WITH PREVAILING RAINFALL NOT
REACHING KCHS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY...BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
IN RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS NE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5-7
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. OPTED TO EXTEND
FLAGS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LIKELY TO PERSIST.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048-049-
     051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 180243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
FRI AND TRACK EAST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS COMBINED WITH
INTRUDING LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SKY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.  MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD SPREADING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH.  PER LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT...SOME OF
THIS LOW STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  LATEST NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW...THEREFORE ONLY CHANGES
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRY COLD AIR DAMMING HAS KEPT IT COOL
AND A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...A BLOSSOMING CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NRN GOM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THE NRN
FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SFC
FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MIXING LATE TONIGHT. AND
IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL...A STRATO-CU DECK MAY
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GOM AND ACROSS WRN FL ON FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS A PRONOUNCED LLVL POT VORT MAV THAT RESULTS IN A
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GOM
ATTM JUST DOWN STREAM OF A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...I THINK THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NEW HPC QPF ALSO FOLLOWS RATHER CLOSELY TO THE
GFS PCPN OUTPUT. ALL OF THIS LENDS ME THE CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY THU...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
FRI AND TRACK SLOWLY ACRS GA/SC THRU SATURDAY...FINALLY MOVING ONTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE
GFS...EC AND GEM...ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WRT THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND EVOLUTION. NAM FAMILY...INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN AND NCEP
HIRES WINDOWS...FEATURE A WEAKER UPPER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHICH EFFECTIVELY KEEP US NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE
OTHER CAMP.

IN TERMS OF PWAT...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NEVER GETS ALARMINGLY
HIGH AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWFA EVEN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE LOW STAYING TO
OUR SOUTH ON ALL THE OPNL GUIDANCE AND ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SREF HAS JUST ONE MEMBER TRACKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING EVEN
MODEST CAPE INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRISK EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. HOW STRONG THE SFC WINDS GET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW COMES. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTS WOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

PWATS AND DEEP LAYER RH DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO RATES
SHOULD TAPER OFF. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP AND SKY
COVER WILL DIMINISH LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

MAX TEMP FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST
HIGH WILL HAVE RECENTLY DEPARTED...BUT WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
CONFLUENT UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN...THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON THRU
SATURDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUID FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THEN ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SE THROUGH MONDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS MON NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A DRY HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FROPA WILL OCCUR
TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES THE MTNS. HENCE...I/VE INHERITED THE LOW END CHANCE POP OVER
THE PIEDMONT WITH SOLID CHANCE POP IN THE MTNS. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WED/THU LOOKS DRY AS A DRY HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON MON WITH A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS CLOUDS EJECT
DOWNSTREAM WITH THE MEAN UPPER FLOW FROM GULF CONVECTION.  WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7KTS RANGE AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BUILD IN BY MID MORNING AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE EXTENDED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  DECIDED TO HOLD CIGS AT LOW VFR LEVELS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HINTED AT MVFR
RESTRICITONS.  CIGS WILL REMAIN AT LOW VFR LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE LOWERING AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE CYCLONE.  PREVAILED MVFR CIGS AT 21Z WITH A
PROB30 FOR -RA BR.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS ALSO DIVERGENCE
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS...WHICH WAS ALSO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING POPS
AND TIMING.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN AT 6-10KTS AND
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...KAVL WILL LIKELY ESCAPE ANY
LOW VFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALL OTHER SITES HAVE PREVAILING
GROUPS FOR SUCH.  THESE CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
DETERIORATING TO MVFR LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PREVAILS AND THE WEDGE RETREATS.  ADDED FM GROUPS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHKY FOR -RA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE CYCLONE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN IN 5-10KTS RANGE AND NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL
WHERE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. FAIR
AND DRIER WEATHER WITH NO RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 180114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
914 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE IS TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. BEACH LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WHILE
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH UPPER
40S-LOWER 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV BY 10Z. KEPT KCHS JUST ABOVE
MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-NORTH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20Z WITH RAIN LIKELY NOT REACHING KCHS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 4SM -RA AT KSAV FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN AT KCHS JUST YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS NE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. OPTED TO EXTEND
FLAGS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LIKELY TO PERSIST.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR IS POISED TO PEAK 6.8 TO 6.95 FT
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TIDAL LOADING THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE STEADY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IN PARTS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO ADDRESS THIS. THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REEVALUATED THROUGH HIGH TIDE.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 172352
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
FRI AND TRACK EAST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRY COLD AIR DAMMING HAS KEPT IT COOL
AND A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...A BLOSSOMING CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NRN GOM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THE NRN
FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SFC
FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MIXING LATE TONIGHT. AND
IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL...A STRATO-CU DECK MAY
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GOM AND ACROSS WRN FL ON FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS A PRONOUNCED LLVL POT VORT MAV THAT RESULTS IN A
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GOM
ATTM JUST DOWN STREAM OF A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...I THINK THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NEW HPC QPF ALSO FOLLOWS RATHER CLOSELY TO THE
GFS PCPN OUTPUT. ALL OF THIS LENDS ME THE CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY THU...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
FRI AND TRACK SLOWLY ACRS GA/SC THRU SATURDAY...FINALLY MOVING ONTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE
GFS...EC AND GEM...ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WRT THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND EVOLUTION. NAM FAMILY...INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN AND NCEP
HIRES WINDOWS...FEATURE A WEAKER UPPER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHICH EFFECTIVELY KEEP US NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE
OTHER CAMP.

IN TERMS OF PWAT...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NEVER GETS ALARMINGLY
HIGH AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWFA EVEN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE LOW STAYING TO
OUR SOUTH ON ALL THE OPNL GUIDANCE AND ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SREF HAS JUST ONE MEMBER TRACKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING EVEN
MODEST CAPE INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRISK EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. HOW STRONG THE SFC WINDS GET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW COMES. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTS WOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

PWATS AND DEEP LAYER RH DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO RATES
SHOULD TAPER OFF. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP AND SKY
COVER WILL DIMINISH LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

MAX TEMP FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST
HIGH WILL HAVE RECENTLY DEPARTED...BUT WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
CONFLUENT UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN...THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON THRU
SATURDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUID FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THEN ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SE THROUGH MONDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS MON NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A DRY HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FROPA WILL OCCUR
TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES THE MTNS. HENCE...I/VE INHERITED THE LOW END CHANCE POP OVER
THE PIEDMONT WITH SOLID CHANCE POP IN THE MTNS. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WED/THU LOOKS DRY AS A DRY HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON MON WITH A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS CLOUDS EJECT
DOWNSTREAM WITH THE MEAN UPPER FLOW FROM GULF CONVECTION.  WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7KTS RANGE AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BUILD IN BY MID MORNING AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE EXTENDED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  DECIDED TO HOLD CIGS AT LOW VFR LEVELS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HINTED AT MVFR
RESTRICITONS.  CIGS WILL REMAIN AT LOW VFR LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE LOWERING AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE CYCLONE.  PREVAILED MVFR CIGS AT 21Z WITH A
PROB30 FOR -RA BR.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS ALSO DIVERGENCE
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS...WHICH WAS ALSO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING POPS
AND TIMING.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN AT 6-10KTS AND
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...KAVL WILL LIKELY ESCAPE ANY
LOW VFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALL OTHER SITES HAVE PREVAILING
GROUPS FOR SUCH.  THESE CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
DETERIORATING TO MVFR LEVELS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PREVAILS AND THE WEDGE RETREATS.  ADDED FM GROUPS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHKY FOR -RA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE CYCLONE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN IN 5-10KTS RANGE AND NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL
WHERE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. FAIR
AND DRIER WEATHER WITH NO RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 172231
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
631 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S IMMEDIATE COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV BY 10Z. KEPT KCHS JUST ABOVE
MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-NORTH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20Z WITH RAIN LIKELY NOT REACHING KCHS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 4SM -RA AT KSAV FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN AT KCHS JUST YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING PRETTY GOOD IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VARIOUS WEATHERFLOW SENSORS IN THE
HARBOR INDICATION WINDS NEAR A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TO COVER. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DID NOT THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND
UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 172109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WHICH MEANS INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY LEVEL LING OFF
AND/OR EVEN RISING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING EARLIEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE COAST...WARMEST
ACROSS GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING PRETTY GOOD IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VARIOUS WEATHERFLOW SENSORS IN THE
HARBOR INDICATION WINDS NEAR A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TO COVER. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DID NOT THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND
UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KGSP 172050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
FRI AND TRACK EAST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM GULF
SURFACE CYCLONE IS STARTING TO STREAM IN ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN UPSTATE PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF...THEREFORE STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO
INCREASE OVER THE CWFA THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ADVECT
MOISTURE IN.  THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHICH COMBINED WITH NON ZERO SURFACE WINDS
WILL INHIBIT FROST POTENTIAL. ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRY COLD AIR DAMMING HAS KEPT IT COOL
AND A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...A BLOSSOMING CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NRN GOM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THE NRN
FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SFC
FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MIXING LATE TONIGHT. AND
IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL...A STRATO-CU DECK MAY
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GOM AND ACROSS WRN FL ON FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS A PRONOUNCED LLVL POT VORT MAV THAT RESULTS IN A
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GOM
ATTM JUST DOWN STREAM OF A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...I THINK THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NEW HPC QPF ALSO FOLLOWS RATHER CLOSELY TO THE
GFS PCPN OUTPUT. ALL OF THIS LENDS ME THE CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY THU...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
FRI AND TRACK SLOWLY ACRS GA/SC THRU SATURDAY...FINALLY MOVING ONTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE
GFS...EC AND GEM...ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WRT THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND EVOLUTION. NAM FAMILY...INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN AND NCEP
HIRES WINDOWS...FEATURE A WEAKER UPPER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHICH EFFECTIVELY KEEP US NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE
OTHER CAMP.

IN TERMS OF PWAT...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NEVER GETS ALARMINGLY
HIGH AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWFA EVEN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE LOW STAYING TO
OUR SOUTH ON ALL THE OPNL GUIDANCE AND ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SREF HAS JUST ONE MEMBER TRACKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING EVEN
MODEST CAPE INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRISK EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. HOW STRONG THE SFC WINDS GET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW COMES. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTS WOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

PWATS AND DEEP LAYER RH DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO RATES
SHOULD TAPER OFF. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP AND SKY
COVER WILL DIMINISH LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

MAX TEMP FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST
HIGH WILL HAVE RECENTLY DEPARTED...BUT WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
CONFLUENT UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN...THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON THRU
SATURDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUID FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THEN ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SE THROUGH MONDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS MON NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A DRY HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FROPA WILL OCCUR
TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES THE MTNS. HENCE...I/VE INHERITED THE LOW END CHANCE POP OVER
THE PIEDMONT WITH SOLID CHANCE POP IN THE MTNS. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WED/THU LOOKS DRY AS A DRY HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON MON WITH A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST MODEL RUNS AND GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD CU FIELD NOT TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE LOW END VFR CIGS...THOUGH I DID PUSH THEM BACK A
FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES. KCLT HAS ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
DECK UP AROUND 4KFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AT LEAST PER THE
GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE ENE THIS AFTN...TURNING BACK TO NE OR EVEN
NNE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP TO 8 TO 10
KTS BY AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. FAIR AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH NO RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 172004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WHICH MEANS INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY LEVEL LING OFF
AND/OR EVEN RISING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING EARLIEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE COAST...WARMEST
ACROSS GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DIDN/T THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT
OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
RECENT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS DUE TO THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING
HIGH TIDE COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
CHARLESTON AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB/JRL
MARINE...RJB/JRL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 171842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
FRI AND TRACK EAST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRY COLD AIR DAMMING HAS KEPT IT COOL
AND A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...A BLOSSOMING CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NRN GOM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THE NRN
FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SFC
FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MIXING LATE TONIGHT. AND
IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL...A STRATO-CU DECK MAY
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GOM AND ACROSS WRN FL ON FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS A PRONOUNCED LLVL POT VORT MAV THAT RESULTS IN A
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GOM
ATTM JUST DOWN STREAM OF A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...I THINK THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NEW HPC QPF ALSO FOLLOWS RATHER CLOSELY TO THE
GFS PCPN OUTPUT. ALL OF THIS LENDS ME THE CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY THU...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
FRI AND TRACK SLOWLY ACRS GA/SC THRU SATURDAY...FINALLY MOVING ONTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE
GFS...EC AND GEM...ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WRT THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND EVOLUTION. NAM FAMILY...INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN AND NCEP
HIRES WINDOWS...FEATURE A WEAKER UPPER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHICH EFFECTIVELY KEEP US NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE
OTHER CAMP.

IN TERMS OF PWAT...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NEVER GETS ALARMINGLY
HIGH AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWFA EVEN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE LOW STAYING TO
OUR SOUTH ON ALL THE OPNL GUIDANCE AND ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SREF HAS JUST ONE MEMBER TRACKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING EVEN
MODEST CAPE INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRISK EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. HOW STRONG THE SFC WINDS GET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW COMES. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTS WOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

PWATS AND DEEP LAYER RH DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SATURDAY...SO RATES
SHOULD TAPER OFF. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP AND SKY
COVER WILL DIMINISH LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

MAX TEMP FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST
HIGH WILL HAVE RECENTLY DEPARTED...BUT WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
CONFLUENT UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN...THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON THRU
SATURDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUID FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...THEN ALLOWING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SE THROUGH MONDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS MON NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A DRY HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FROPA WILL OCCUR
TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES THE MTNS. HENCE...I/VE INHERITED THE LOW END CHANCE POP OVER
THE PIEDMONT WITH SOLID CHANCE POP IN THE MTNS. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WED/THU LOOKS DRY AS A DRY HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON MON WITH A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST MODEL RUNS AND GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD CU FIELD NOT TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE LOW END VFR CIGS...THOUGH I DID PUSH THEM BACK A
FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES. KCLT HAS ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
DECK UP AROUND 4KFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AT LEAST PER THE
GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE ENE THIS AFTN...TURNING BACK TO NE OR EVEN
NNE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP TO 8 TO 10
KTS BY AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. FAIR AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH NO RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BUT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD BE THE TREND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD TOUCH 70. IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 171742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE AFTERNOON GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...STILL EXPERIENCING SOME CI OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PASSING BUY. SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE.

AS OF 645 AM...CIRRUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THRU
THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SAT PIX
SHOW THESE CLOUDS ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WITH A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY.
OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 245 AM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE TODAY. RISING THICKNESSES...SUN FILTERING THRU MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS
AND A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NELY
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH MIXING ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC...BY MID MORNING AS
MIXING BEGINS. GUSTS SHUD TAPER OF FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS
THE MTNS WILL BE SLY AND COULD SEE GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NELY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE SWLY UPPER FLOW AND A DEVELOPING
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOWS SHUD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NITES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING AIR MASS. LOWS STILL END UP AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE
NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED
H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER S. GA AND N. FL...WITH THE GFS
NORTH OF THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE
ALONG THE GA/FL LINE...WITH NEW ENGLAND CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC
AND MID LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING WETTER ACROSS
THE CWA AND NAM REMAINING DRY. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MTNS...UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT WITH CHC POPS FOR SHRA. IN ADDITION...SKY COVER WILL
LIKELY FAVOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND DEFORMATION
FORCING MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE VERY CHALLENGING...WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT TEMPS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME...I WILL FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE WITHIN 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL RIPPLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATES
THAT A FIELD OF WEAK CAPE WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL S/W AND COLD FRONT...COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA. DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST MODEL RUNS AND GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD CU FIELD NOT TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE LOW END VFR CIGS...THOUGH I DID PUSH THEM BACK A
FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES. KCLT HAS ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
DECK UP AROUND 4KFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AT LEAST PER THE
GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE ENE THIS AFTN...TURNING BACK TO NE OR EVEN
NNE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP TO 8 TO 10
KTS BY AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. FAIR AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH NO RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 171457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1057 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. HIGHS WILL BE A WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
IMMEDIATE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON GIVEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. SKIES WILL
AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO
COMMIT TO ANY CIGS TO MVFR AT THIS STAGE. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY BUT WILL ALLOW LATER CYCLES A CHANCE TO
PIN DOWN MVFR TIMING. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB/BSH
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF ATLC MOISTURE IS
NOTED UNDER A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 4-7 KFT. BONE DRY
AIR NOTED IN THE MID LAYERS AND PWATS BELOW .7 INCHES. ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK MINUTE. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO. THE
BREEZES NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING PROFILES. SKY COVERAGE IS
QUITE CHALLENGING TODAY BUT GEORGIA ZONES APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO
COMMIT TO ANY CIGS TO MVFR AT THIS STAGE. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KT.
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY BUT WILL ALLOW LATER CYCLES A CHANCE TO
PIN DOWN MVFR TIMING. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 171058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...CIRRUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THRU
THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SAT PIX
SHOW THESE CLOUDS ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WITH A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY.
OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 245 AM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE TODAY. RISING THICKNESSES...SUN FILTERING THRU MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS
AND A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NELY
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH MIXING ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC...BY MID MORNING AS
MIXING BEGINS. GUSTS SHUD TAPER OF FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS
THE MTNS WILL BE SLY AND COULD SEE GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NELY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE SWLY UPPER FLOW AND A DEVELOPING
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOWS SHUD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NITES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING AIR MASS. LOWS STILL END UP AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE
NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED
H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER S. GA AND N. FL...WITH THE GFS
NORTH OF THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE
ALONG THE GA/FL LINE...WITH NEW ENGLAND CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC
AND MID LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING WETTER ACROSS
THE CWA AND NAM REMAINING DRY. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MTNS...UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT WITH CHC POPS FOR SHRA. IN ADDITION...SKY COVER WILL
LIKELY FAVOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND DEFORMATION
FORCING MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE VERY CHALLENGING...WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT TEMPS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME...I WILL FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE WITHIN 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL RIPPLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATES
THAT A FIELD OF WEAK CAPE WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL S/W AND COLD FRONT...COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA. DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CIRRUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOW
VFR CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND BECOMING
BKN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM LOW VFR. NELY WIND THIS MORNING
BECOMES GUSTY WITH MIXING BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE UPSTATE...THEN
WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS ENE. KAVL THE EXCEPTION
WHERE LIGHT NLY WIND EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES SLY BEFORE NOON THEN
BECOMES GUSTY FOR AFTERNOON. KAVL WIND RETURNS TO LIGHT NLY DURING
THE EVENING. ELSEHWERE...WINDS TURN BACK TO NELY BUT REMAIN ABOVE
THE LIGHT CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ003-006>009-
     011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001-002-004-
     005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCU WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED TODAY. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LOWER BASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 170837
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
INLAND OB SITES REPORTING 4-5 KT OF NE FLOW. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF I-95 WITH EXPANSION OF STRATOCUMULUS
FIELDS NOTED ON OVERNIGHT 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF ATLC MOISTURE IS
NOTED UNDER A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 4-7 KFT. BONE DRY
AIR NOTED IN THE MID LAYERS AND PWATS BELOW .7 INCHES. ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK MINUTE. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO. THE BREEZES
NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING PROFILES. SKY COVERAGE IS QUITE
CHALLENGING TODAY BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. KSAV HAS SEEN SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PATCHY CIGS 2500-3000 FT POSSIBLE
INTO MID MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AREAS OF STRATOCU CIGS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD TODAY. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HYDROLOGY...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170742
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
342 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 170705
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE TODAY. RISING THICKNESSES...SUN FILTERING THRU MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS
AND A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NELY
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH MIXING ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC...BY MID MORNING AS
MIXING BEGINS. GUSTS SHUD TAPER OF FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS
THE MTNS WILL BE SLY AND COULD SEE GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NELY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE SWLY UPPER FLOW AND A DEVELOPING
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOWS SHUD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NITES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING AIR MASS. LOWS STILL END UP AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE
NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED
H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER S. GA AND N. FL...WITH THE GFS
NORTH OF THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE
ALONG THE GA/FL LINE...WITH NEW ENGLAND CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC
AND MID LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING WETTER ACROSS
THE CWA AND NAM REMAINING DRY. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MTNS...UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT WITH CHC POPS FOR SHRA. IN ADDITION...SKY COVER WILL
LIKELY FAVOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND DEFORMATION
FORCING MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE VERY CHALLENGING...WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT TEMPS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME...I WILL FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE WITHIN 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL RIPPLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATES
THAT A FIELD OF WEAK CAPE WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL S/W AND COLD FRONT...COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA. DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS MOVES IN THRU THE DAY. NELY WIND CONTINUES THRU THE DAY AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING FOR THE SC
SITES. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE LIGHT WIND BECOMES SLY AFTER
DAYBREAK THEN SSE AND GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN
FROM THE SW LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH BKN CIRRUS
DEVELOPING. BEST CHC FOR LOW VFR CIGS IS KAND. GUSTS TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING ENE. RELATIVELY LIGHT NE WIND CONTINUES
THRU THE EVENING. KAVL WILL SEE LIGHTER SLY WIND FOR THE EARLY
EVENING THEN TURNING NLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ003-006>009-
     011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001-002-004-
     005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS MOVING IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...SO UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 930 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT THEREFORE
UPDATED RELEVANT PRODUCTS FOR THE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW THIS HIGH TO PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS FURTHER NE...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED
THIS FLOW TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE ERN ZONES AROUND
DAYBREAK THU. THIS IS NO LONGER THE FAVORED SOLUTION. PROG SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS.

A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS...I EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THOSE THIS MRNG. TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S MINS TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BY BLENDING THESE WITH FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS BRINGS
TEMPS DOWN TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM
GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD EAST. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WRNG TO THOSE
ZONES...AND TO HABERSHAM. CONDITIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FROSTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED BREEZES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FROST ADVY.

THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEDGELIKE SFC HIGH DOES BRING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDINESS INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THU AFTN. SOME
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIGHT DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A STUBBORN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM MAINE...THROUGH THE VIRGINIA`S AND THE
CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THIS STREAM OF ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS
PARENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...THE SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AS THE UPPER (H5) LOW CUTS OFF AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO FLORIDA.

INITIALLY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST THAT
SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ENTRAIN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS (AND EVEN THE CANADIAN) HAVE TRENDED TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE EVENTS THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND AN APPARENT CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH. THIS CONFLUENT ZONE WOULD "MORE OR LESS" GIVE US A HINT AT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. I CAN NOT SAY WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...SINCE A HAND FULL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE UPSTATE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS CURRENTLY SWAYING ME TO
KEEP THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BEEFY CLOUD COVER. JUDGING BY SOME OF OUR
SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS WE ARE NOT FAR OFF.

WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES (UPWARD
SWING) PARTICULARLY SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO IF THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW HAVING CLOSED OFF OVER FLORIDA
AND OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES. BEYOND
THIS...ITS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS
ANY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT TRIES TO SPIN UP
TO OUR SOUTH...TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z SUN AND
SPREADS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO QUITE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH I HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE FCST IS DRY ON
SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP SLOWLY ON MON TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
CWFA AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE ON TUES. WED IS LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS MOVES IN THRU THE DAY. NELY WIND CONTINUES THRU THE DAY AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING FOR THE SC
SITES. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE LIGHT WIND BECOMES SLY AFTER
DAYBREAK THEN SSE AND GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN
FROM THE SW LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH BKN CIRRUS
DEVELOPING. BEST CHC FOR LOW VFR CIGS IS KAND. GUSTS TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON TURNING ENE. RELATIVELY LIGHT NE WIND CONTINUES
THRU THE EVENING. KAVL WILL SEE LIGHTER SLY WIND FOR THE EARLY
EVENING THEN TURNING NLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ003-006>009-
     011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001-002-004-
     005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE ON THE RECENT PRODUCT
UPDATES TO LOW TEMPS AND HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS
09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO
INCLUDE A MENTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. AREAS
OF STRATOCU CIGS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
TODAY. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 170243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT THEREFORE
UPDATED RELEVANT PRODUCTS FOR THE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW THIS HIGH TO PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS FURTHER NE...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED
THIS FLOW TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE ERN ZONES AROUND
DAYBREAK THU. THIS IS NO LONGER THE FAVORED SOLUTION. PROG SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS.

A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS...I EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THOSE THIS MRNG. TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S MINS TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BY BLENDING THESE WITH FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS BRINGS
TEMPS DOWN TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM
GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD EAST. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WRNG TO THOSE
ZONES...AND TO HABERSHAM. CONDITIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FROSTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED BREEZES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FROST ADVY.

THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEDGELIKE SFC HIGH DOES BRING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDINESS INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THU AFTN. SOME
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIGHT DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A STUBBORN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM MAINE...THROUGH THE VIRGINIA`S AND THE
CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THIS STREAM OF ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS
PARENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...THE SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AS THE UPPER (H5) LOW CUTS OFF AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO FLORIDA.

INITIALLY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST THAT
SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ENTRAIN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS (AND EVEN THE CANADIAN) HAVE TRENDED TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE EVENTS THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND AN APPARENT CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH. THIS CONFLUENT ZONE WOULD "MORE OR LESS" GIVE US A HINT AT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. I CAN NOT SAY WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...SINCE A HAND FULL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE UPSTATE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS CURRENTLY SWAYING ME TO
KEEP THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BEEFY CLOUD COVER. JUDGING BY SOME OF OUR
SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS WE ARE NOT FAR OFF.

WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES (UPWARD
SWING) PARTICULARLY SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO IF THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW HAVING CLOSED OFF OVER FLORIDA
AND OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES. BEYOND
THIS...ITS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS
ANY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT TRIES TO SPIN UP
TO OUR SOUTH...TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z SUN AND
SPREADS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO QUITE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH I HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE FCST IS DRY ON
SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP SLOWLY ON MON TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
CWFA AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE ON TUES. WED IS LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.  SKIES WILL
REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MIXING IN
AFTER DAYBREAK...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ENE
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
THE 10-12KTS RANGE AROUND THE 13-14Z TIMEFRAME.  PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCES ALONG THE BASE OF EXTENDING WEDGE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR
GUSTING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. THUS ADDED TEMPOS AT ALL SC SITES WHERE
THE PG IS STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THU AFTN BUT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ003-006>009-
     011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ001-002-004-005-
     010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 170124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WERE MADE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER 18Z GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS 09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INCLUDE A MENTION. CAPPED CIGS AT BKN040-050 AT KSAV
AND OPTED NOT TO ESTABLISH CIGS AT KCHS DURING THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WILL PEAK JUST UNDER 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STEADY AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A
FEW PROBLEMS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO ONGOING TIDAL LOADING...
DESPITE TIDES OF 6.7-6.9 FT MLLW. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT MINOR IMPACTS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MAINLY IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TIDE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 162307
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED/MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.  CURRENT TRENDS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND NEWEST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH FCST.  TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION PEAKED IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.  THUS...FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW THIS HIGH TO PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS FURTHER NE...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED
THIS FLOW TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE ERN ZONES AROUND
DAYBREAK THU. THIS IS NO LONGER THE FAVORED SOLUTION. PROG SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS.

A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS...I EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THOSE THIS MRNG. TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S MINS TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BY BLENDING THESE WITH FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS BRINGS
TEMPS DOWN TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM
GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD EAST. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WRNG TO THOSE
ZONES...AND TO HABERSHAM. CONDITIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FROSTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED BREEZES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FROST ADVY.

THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEDGELIKE SFC HIGH DOES BRING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDINESS INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THU AFTN. SOME
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIGHT DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A STUBBORN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM MAINE...THROUGH THE VIRGINIA`S AND THE
CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THIS STREAM OF ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS
PARENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...THE SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AS THE UPPER (H5) LOW CUTS OFF AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO FLORIDA.

INITIALLY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST THAT
SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ENTRAIN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS (AND EVEN THE CANADIAN) HAVE TRENDED TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE EVENTS THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND AN APPARENT CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH. THIS CONFLUENT ZONE WOULD "MORE OR LESS" GIVE US A HINT AT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. I CAN NOT SAY WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...SINCE A HAND FULL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE UPSTATE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS CURRENTLY SWAYING ME TO
KEEP THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BEEFY CLOUD COVER. JUDGING BY SOME OF OUR
SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS WE ARE NOT FAR OFF.

WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES (UPWARD
SWING) PARTICULARLY SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO IF THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW HAVING CLOSED OFF OVER FLORIDA
AND OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES. BEYOND
THIS...ITS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS
ANY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT TRIES TO SPIN UP
TO OUR SOUTH...TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z SUN AND
SPREADS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO QUITE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH I HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE FCST IS DRY ON
SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP SLOWLY ON MON TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
CWFA AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE ON TUES. WED IS LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.  SKIES WILL
REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MIXING IN
AFTER DAYBREAK...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ENE
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
THE 10-12KTS RANGE AROUND THE 13-14Z TIMEFRAME.  PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCES ALONG THE BASE OF EXTENDING WEDGE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR
GUSTING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. THUS ADDED TEMPOS AT ALL SC SITES WHERE
THE PG IS STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THU AFTN BUT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ003-006>009-011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001-002-004-005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER 18Z GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS 09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INCLUDE A MENTION. CAPPED CIGS AT BKN040-050 AT KSAV
AND OPTED NOT TO ESTABLISH CIGS AT KCHS DURING THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WILL PEAK JUST UNDER 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STEADY AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A
FEW PROBLEMS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO ONGOING TIDAL LOADING...
DESPITE TIDES OF 6.8-6.9 FT MLLW. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT MINOR IMPACTS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MAINLY IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TIDE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON REACHED 59 DEGREES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 58
DEGREES SET IN 1962 WILL STAND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCAE 162229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
AROUND 08Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY PREVENTING ANY
FOG ISSUES. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 162229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
AROUND 08Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY PREVENTING ANY
FOG ISSUES. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KGSP 162034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.  NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE THEREFORE ASIDE FROM TWEAKING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS...LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW THIS HIGH TO PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS FURTHER NE...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED
THIS FLOW TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE ERN ZONES AROUND
DAYBREAK THU. THIS IS NO LONGER THE FAVORED SOLUTION. PROG SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS.

A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS...I EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THOSE THIS MRNG. TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S MINS TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BY BLENDING THESE WITH FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS BRINGS
TEMPS DOWN TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM
GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD EAST. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WRNG TO THOSE
ZONES...AND TO HABERSHAM. CONDITIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FROSTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED BREEZES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FROST ADVY.

THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEDGELIKE SFC HIGH DOES BRING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDINESS INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THU AFTN. SOME
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIGHT DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A STUBBORN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM MAINE...THROUGH THE VIRGINIA`S AND THE
CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THIS STREAM OF ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS
PARENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...THE SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AS THE UPPER (H5) LOW CUTS OFF AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO FLORIDA.

INITIALLY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST THAT
SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ENTRAIN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS (AND EVEN THE CANADIAN) HAVE TRENDED TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE EVENTS THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND AN APPARENT CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH. THIS CONFLUENT ZONE WOULD "MORE OR LESS" GIVE US A HINT AT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. I CAN NOT SAY WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...SINCE A HAND FULL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE UPSTATE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS CURRENTLY SWAYING ME TO
KEEP THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BEEFY CLOUD COVER. JUDGING BY SOME OF OUR
SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS WE ARE NOT FAR OFF.

WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES (UPWARD
SWING) PARTICULARLY SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO IF THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW HAVING CLOSED OFF OVER FLORIDA
AND OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES. BEYOND
THIS...ITS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS
ANY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT TRIES TO SPIN UP
TO OUR SOUTH...TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z SUN AND
SPREADS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO QUITE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH I HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE FCST IS DRY ON
SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP SLOWLY ON MON TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
CWFA AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE ON TUES. WED IS LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. OCNL LOW END GUSTS MIGHT BE REPORTED
HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN BUT A STEADY NE BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL
/EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/. THE SFC GRADIENT HOLDS FAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EARLIER SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ON MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND DAYBREAK THU...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION THEREOF. WILL
INFORM EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT NELY THU...EXCEPT SELY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THU AFTN BUT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ003-006>009-011>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001-002-004-005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND/MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. OF COURSE CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET. FOR NOW WE LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND WITH LOWER
TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND 50 OR EVEN LOWER 50S AT
THE BEACHES...WARMEST ALONG THE GA COAST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FROST FORMATION BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MORE ISOLATED RURAL
LOCALES IF THEY GET INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THEN
THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE ELEVATED/GUSTY N TO NE WINDS...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...  LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7
FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE WHAT THEY SHOULD BE GIVEN THE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND THIS COULD PUSH LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SHALLOW INUNDATION OF SALTWATER NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY AROUND CHARLESTON. THUS...A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. THE CURRENT RECORD IS 58 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW THIS HIGH TO PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS FURTHER NE...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED
THIS FLOW TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE ERN ZONES AROUND
DAYBREAK THU. THIS IS NO LONGER THE FAVORED SOLUTION. PROG SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS.

A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS...I EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THOSE THIS MRNG. TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S MINS TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BY BLENDING THESE WITH FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS BRINGS
TEMPS DOWN TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM
GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD EAST. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WRNG TO THOSE
ZONES...AND TO HABERSHAM. CONDITIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FROSTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED BREEZES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY SO THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FROST ADVY.

THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEDGELIKE SFC HIGH DOES BRING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDINESS INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THU AFTN. SOME
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIGHT DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A
BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A STUBBORN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM MAINE...THROUGH THE VIRGINIA`S AND THE
CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THIS STREAM OF ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS
PARENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...THE SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AS THE UPPER (H5) LOW CUTS OFF AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO FLORIDA.

INITIALLY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST THAT
SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ENTRAIN INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS (AND EVEN THE CANADIAN) HAVE TRENDED TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE EVENTS THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND AN APPARENT CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH. THIS CONFLUENT ZONE WOULD "MORE OR LESS" GIVE US A HINT AT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. I CAN NOT SAY WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...SINCE A HAND FULL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE UPSTATE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS CURRENTLY SWAYING ME TO
KEEP THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE A BEEFY CLOUD COVER. JUDGING BY SOME OF OUR
SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS WE ARE NOT FAR OFF.

WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES (UPWARD
SWING) PARTICULARLY SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO IF THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW HAVING CLOSED OFF OVER FLORIDA
AND OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES. BEYOND
THIS...ITS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS
ANY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT TRIES TO SPIN UP
TO OUR SOUTH...TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z SUN AND
SPREADS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO QUITE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH I HAVE PLACED MORE CONFIDENCE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE FCST IS DRY ON
SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP SLOWLY ON MON TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
CWFA AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE ON TUES. WED IS LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. OCNL LOW END GUSTS MIGHT BE REPORTED
HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN BUT A STEADY NE BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL
/EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/. THE SFC GRADIENT HOLDS FAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EARLIER SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ON MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND DAYBREAK THU...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION THEREOF. WILL
INFORM EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT NELY THU...EXCEPT SELY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THU AFTN BUT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>007-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 161759
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
159 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT DID TWEAK
HIGHS DOWN A BIT AND CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY A BIT EARLY
AS GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 1 PM...BUT EVEN COOLER AROUND
50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. IN FACT...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY SET
A RECORD LOW MAX TEMP THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 58
DEGREES SET IN 1962. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING
POTENTIAL WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS LOW TEMPS DIP TOWARD
THE MID 30S AT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL LOCATIONS FROM
ALLENDALE TO SUMMERVILLE. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST ENOUGH
GRADIENT/WIND TO OMIT ANY MENTIONS FOR PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS A
WEAK MOIST FLUX COMING IN FROM THE ATLC IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT ACROSS SE GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP
READINGS A BIT WARMER ALONG AND S OF I-16 OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN STRATOCU COASTAL AREAS IS LIKELY LATE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE THAT ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE STRONG DAMMING 1043 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
EVEN FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN
THE STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5 KFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THURSDAY POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND THURSDAY NIGHT
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AND
INHERENTLY LESS CERTAIN FOR THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND KICKING OFF
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES. SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTIONS TRULY RUN
THE SPECTRUM. FOR INSTANCE THE 00Z/16 ECMWF ALLOWS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER DEVELOPING
LOW WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND DEEP FORCING TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND RESULTING LOW AND KEEPS THE PRECIP AXIS
LIGHTER AND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND EXISTING MODEL DISAGREEMENT...I HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. POPS FEATURE A TIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE WATERS. I HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WATERS AND TO THE SOUTH...BUT MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS. OBVIOUSLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW BUT FOR NOW TEMPS FEATURE ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THEN
THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE ELEVATED/GUSTY N TO NE WINDS...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT....HIGH PRES WEDGING INTO GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE ATLC WATERS FROM CHARLESTON TO SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. WINDS WILL BE NE WITH THE MORNING SURGE EBBING AND THEN
RAMPING UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ALL WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT NEAR SHORE AND REMAINING 7-9 FT
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH A TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL HELP SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN LESSENS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW AND THE RESULTING GRADIENT ON ITS NORTH SIDE WILL DETERMINE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD INCREASE IF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO SAY AT
THIS POINT.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES TODAY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIPS NORTHEAST AND COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SEAS
AND LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE FA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS TODAY SEEMED A LITTLE WARM GIVEN
THAT WARMING HAS OCCURRED SLOWER THAN FCST. MOST FCST ELEMENTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED. NEAR-SFC ISENTROPIC FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOIST UPGLIDE COMING OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE ERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. PROG SOUNDINGS HOWEVER
DO NOT SUPPORT CLOUDS OR FOG MAKING IT THIS FAR INLAND...AND MODELS
DO NOT GENERATE CLOUD COVER IN LLVLS. A FEW CIRRUS MIGHT BEGIN TO
FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A BIT STRONGER OVERNIGHT. THUS...I
EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MRNG.
TRIED TO USE THIS MRNG/S LOWS TO CAPTURE LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS BRINGS
LOWS TO 31-32F IN PORTIONS OF THE ZONES FROM GREENVILLE/GREENWOOD
EAST. THUS THOSE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FREEZE WRNG AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH SOME MODERATION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOWARD MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THRU THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS SPIN UP A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE
STALLED COLD FRONT OFF SHORE. ELY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CLOUDS...INTO THE ERN CWFA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD PUT A DAMPER ON GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THAT
SAID...EVEN THE NAM WHICH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FLOW AND
MOISTURE...SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ON THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER THE AREA BY
MORNING. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...BUT SOME WIND CONTINUING. ALL THIS TO SAY FCST LOWS
STILL FALL TO FREEZING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE PATCHY
FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENUF TO PRECLUDE A
WARNING. FROST IS A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS...WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS. STILL...HAVE WIDESPREAD AREA
WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE FROST PRODUCING CATEGORY. SINCE
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL GO WITH A FROST ADV FOR
THE REST OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A 1045 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
DRY AND COOL LLVL NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN 25 TO 30 DEGREE
WARMING OVER MORNING LOWS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS
THE TROF APPROACHES...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AROUND SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICKENING MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...H85 WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH
AND SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK WAA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES BY 1-3 DEGREES. SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER FL PENINSULA DURING
THE MORNING...TRACKING EAST. AT THE MID LEVELS...A DEEP TROF TO
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SFC LOW...FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE CWFA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE FROM THE MIDDLE
CONUS ON MON TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA...WITH A FEW TSRA OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. OCNL LOW END GUSTS MIGHT BE REPORTED
HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN BUT A STEADY NE BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL
/EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/. THE SFC GRADIENT HOLDS FAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EARLIER SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ON MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND DAYBREAK THU...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION THEREOF. WILL
INFORM EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THOUGH. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT NELY THU...EXCEPT SELY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THU AFTN BUT WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>007-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
JUST A BIT. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP NEAR FREEZING...SO A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT AM
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. GFS KEEPS AN INVERTED TROF ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDLANDS WHILE HE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. BOTH
MODELS DO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN WE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -SHRA FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR ENTERING THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
JUST A BIT. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP NEAR FREEZING...SO A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT AM
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. GFS KEEPS AN INVERTED TROF ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDLANDS WHILE HE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. BOTH
MODELS DO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN WE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -SHRA FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR ENTERING THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWEST
AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
COAST...LIKELY PUSHING A BIT MORE ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE EASTERLY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY...STRONGEST AT THE COAST...WHILE THE DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAKE FOR A LESSENING OF THE WIND GUSTS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN SC/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
WITH MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN
CHILLIER...LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 60.

LAKE WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE WILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING POTENTIAL
WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS LOW TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID
30S AT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL LOCATIONS FROM ALLENDALE
TO SUMMERVILLE. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT/WIND TO
OMIT ANY MENTIONS FOR PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS A WEAK MOIST FLUX
COMING IN FROM THE ATLC IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT ACROSS SE GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP READINGS A BIT WARMER
ALONG AND S OF I-16 OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU COASTAL
AREAS IS LIKELY LATE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE THAT ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE STRONG DAMMING 1043 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
EVEN FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN
THE STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5 KFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THURSDAY POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND THURSDAY NIGHT
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AND
INHERENTLY LESS CERTAIN FOR THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND KICKING OFF
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES. SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTIONS TRULY RUN
THE SPECTRUM. FOR INSTANCE THE 00Z/16 ECMWF ALLOWS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER DEVELOPING
LOW WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND DEEP FORCING TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND RESULTING LOW AND KEEPS THE PRECIP AXIS
LIGHTER AND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND EXISTING MODEL DISAGREEMENT...I HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. POPS FEATURE A TIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE WATERS. I HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WATERS AND TO THE SOUTH...BUT MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS. OBVIOUSLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW BUT FOR NOW TEMPS FEATURE ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH BE N TO NE SURFACE WINDS PRODUCING PREVAILING
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ATTEMPT TO
MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR BY
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT....HIGH PRES WEDGING INTO GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE ATLC WATERS FROM CHARLESTON TO SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. WINDS WILL BE NE WITH THE MORNING SURGE EBBING AND THEN
RAMPING UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ALL WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT NEAR SHORE AND REMAINING 7-9 FT
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH A TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL HELP SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN LESSENS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW AND THE RESULTING GRADIENT ON ITS NORTH SIDE WILL DETERMINE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD INCREASE IF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO SAY AT
THIS POINT.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES TODAY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIPS NORTHEAST AND COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SEAS
AND LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM...FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALL OF THE AIRPORT OBS HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING BY
945 AM...AND MOST SITES IN THE MTNS WERE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. IN
THE SUNSHINE THE DANGER TO SFC VEGETATION WAS MINIMAL.

SPOTTY OBS ATTM SHOW BRISK GUSTS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU MRNG MIXING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND MOVE INLAND. 12Z NAM FEATURES LESS CLOUD COVER THAN 06Z
RUN AND LAMP GUIDANCE HAS NOT PICKED UP ON ANY CLOUDS. SO FOR THE
TIME BEING IT APPEARS THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT WILL
STAND AS-ARE.

TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE UPDATED THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
THRU THE DAY...BUT THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WITH SOME MODERATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TOWARD MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS
SPIN UP A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT OFF SHORE. ELY
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
CLOUDS...INTO THE ERN CWFA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IF THIS DOES
DEVELOP...IT COULD PUT A DAMPER ON GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...EVEN THE NAM
WHICH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FLOW AND MOISTURE...SHOWS LITTLE
TO NO INCREASE IN CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER THE AREA BY MORNING. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE
DISAGREEMENT...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...BUT SOME WIND
CONTINUING. ALL THIS TO SAY FCST LOWS STILL FALL TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE PATCHY FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA
IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
ENUF TO PRECLUDE A WARNING. FROST IS A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS.
STILL...HAVE WIDESPREAD AREA WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE FROST
PRODUCING CATEGORY. SINCE ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE...WILL GO WITH A FROST ADV FOR THE REST OF THE UPSTATE AND
NE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A 1045 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
DRY AND COOL LLVL NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN 25 TO 30 DEGREE
WARMING OVER MORNING LOWS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS
THE TROF APPROACHES...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AROUND SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICKENING MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...H85 WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH
AND SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK WAA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES BY 1-3 DEGREES. SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER FL PENINSULA DURING
THE MORNING...TRACKING EAST. AT THE MID LEVELS...A DEEP TROF TO
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SFC LOW...FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE CWFA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE FROM THE MIDDLE
CONUS ON MON TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA...WITH A FEW TSRA OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT NE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
WITH MIXING THRU MIDDAY. GUSTS DROP OFF AS WINDS TURN ENE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE GUSTY NLY WIND BECOMES SELY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO NELY OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN NEAR 10
KTS THRU THE PERIOD. KAVL WILL SEE A RETURN TO NLY WINDS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KCLT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY CLOUDS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP FCST VFR BUT INCLUDE SCT250
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS KCLT AND THE SC SITES AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>007-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH MAY WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS HINTING
AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL CHECK WITH 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
DECISION OF A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER
INVERSION BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES...BECOMING A BIT LESS BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 08Z THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH MAY WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS HINTING
AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL CHECK WITH 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
DECISION OF A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER
INVERSION BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES...BECOMING A BIT LESS BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 08Z THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT
GUSTY ACROSS THE MTNS. TEMPS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN TO OR NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
EXPIRATION. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST STILL ON TRACK...SO UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AND SHOULD BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE
WARNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED FREEZING...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS COOLING
BASICALLY ON SCHEDULE. CURRENT FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THRU EXPIRATION. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
BUT REMAIN GUSTY...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG BURSTS ACROSS THE MTNS.
EXPECT THE MTN WINDS TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT SHUD
REMAIN GUSTY THRU MORNING. EXPECT NELY WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TO
BECOME GUSTY WITH MIXING BY MID-MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
THE DAY. MTN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN SELY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THRU THE DAY...BUT THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TONIGHT. THIS
KEEPS THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH SOME
MODERATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOWARD MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS SPIN UP A WEAK SFC LOW
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT OFF SHORE. ELY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CLOUDS...INTO THE ERN CWFA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD PUT A DAMPER ON
GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
THAT SAID...EVEN THE NAM WHICH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FLOW AND
MOISTURE...SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ON THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER THE AREA BY
MORNING. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...BUT SOME WIND CONTINUING. ALL THIS TO SAY FCST LOWS
STILL FALL TO FREEZING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE PATCHY
FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENUF TO PRECLUDE A
WARNING. FROST IS A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS...WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS. STILL...HAVE WIDESPREAD AREA
WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE FROST PRODUCING CATEGORY. SINCE
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL GO WITH A FROST ADV FOR
THE REST OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A 1045 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
DRY AND COOL LLVL NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN 25 TO 30 DEGREE
WARMING OVER MORNING LOWS. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS
THE TROF APPROACHES...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AROUND SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICKENING MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...H85 WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH
AND SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK WAA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES BY 1-3 DEGREES. SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER FL PENINSULA DURING
THE MORNING...TRACKING EAST. AT THE MID LEVELS...A DEEP TROF TO
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SFC LOW...FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE CWFA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE FROM THE MIDDLE
CONUS ON MON TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA...WITH A FEW TSRA OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT NE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING. GUSTS DROP OFF AS WINDS TURN ENE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE GUSTY NLY WIND BECOMES SELY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO NELY OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN NEAR 10
KTS THRU THE PERIOD. KAVL WILL SEE A RETURN TO NLY WINDS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KCLT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY CLOUDS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP FCST VFR BUT INCLUDE SCT250
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS KCLT AND THE SC SITES AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN LIFT TO VFR THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16...

AVL...26 IN 1943
CLT...29 IN 2008
GSP...24 IN 1907

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>007-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR. KCAE RADAR VWP AND
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS AT CAE CONFIRM ABOUT 30KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FROM THE NE. WILL INCLUDE WIND SHEAR MENTION EARLY...WITH A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER INVERSION
BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR. KCAE RADAR VWP AND
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS AT CAE CONFIRM ABOUT 30KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FROM THE NE. WILL INCLUDE WIND SHEAR MENTION EARLY...WITH A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER INVERSION
BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR. KCAE RADAR VWP AND
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS AT CAE CONFIRM ABOUT 30KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FROM THE NE. WILL INCLUDE WIND SHEAR MENTION EARLY...WITH A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER INVERSION
BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR. KCAE RADAR VWP AND
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS AT CAE CONFIRM ABOUT 30KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FROM THE NE. WILL INCLUDE WIND SHEAR MENTION EARLY...WITH A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER INVERSION
BREAKS AND MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161003 CCA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 161003 CCA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THU/FRI.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160950
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 160950
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 160950
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 160950
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities