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000
FXUS62 KCAE 042353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WILL UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS NEEDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z/08Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PICK UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WILL UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS NEEDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z/08Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PICK UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WILL UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS NEEDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z/08Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PICK UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WILL UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS NEEDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z/08Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PICK UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WILL UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS NEEDED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z/08Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PICK UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 042347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS STORMS START MOVING INTO AREAS NOT ALREADY
WORKED OVER BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HRRR AND OTHER CAM/HIRES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVED DATA

AS OF 430 PM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO SKY/POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. SEEING SOME NON-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF THE TCLT TDWR. ISOLATED SEVERE STILL
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...HAVE SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE CAPE/DCAPE VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.
TRENDS INTO THE EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND
NRN NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY
A COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE
TOWARD THE KCLT AREA...SO CONTINUED TEMPO WORDING FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CHAOTIC DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE EARLY
IN THE MORNING. NE WINDS WILL HELP BRING THIS MOISTURE IN AND SO
KEPT TREND OF MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE
TO VFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30
TSRA AGAIN.

ELSEWHERE...KGMU/KGSP/KAND HAVE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT ALSO SEEING SOME STORMS UP NEAR KHKY SO WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONTINUED TREND
OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE NE...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHRA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH ON
THIS. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...MOST
LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...WITH OTHER SITES POSSIBLY SEEING
MVFR FOG DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH PROB30
COVERING THIS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 042347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS STORMS START MOVING INTO AREAS NOT ALREADY
WORKED OVER BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HRRR AND OTHER CAM/HIRES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVED DATA

AS OF 430 PM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO SKY/POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. SEEING SOME NON-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF THE TCLT TDWR. ISOLATED SEVERE STILL
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...HAVE SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE CAPE/DCAPE VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.
TRENDS INTO THE EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND
NRN NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY
A COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE
TOWARD THE KCLT AREA...SO CONTINUED TEMPO WORDING FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CHAOTIC DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE EARLY
IN THE MORNING. NE WINDS WILL HELP BRING THIS MOISTURE IN AND SO
KEPT TREND OF MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE
TO VFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30
TSRA AGAIN.

ELSEWHERE...KGMU/KGSP/KAND HAVE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT ALSO SEEING SOME STORMS UP NEAR KHKY SO WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONTINUED TREND
OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE NE...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHRA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH ON
THIS. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...MOST
LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...WITH OTHER SITES POSSIBLY SEEING
MVFR FOG DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH PROB30
COVERING THIS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 042304
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED. A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOWS CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD
STILL POP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TIP NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THINNING.

NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST TABULAR GUIDANCE FOR KVDI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAV PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING
OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TIPPING
EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY
DAYTIME COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE MARINE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042304
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED. A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOWS CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD
STILL POP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TIP NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THINNING.

NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST TABULAR GUIDANCE FOR KVDI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAV PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING
OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TIPPING
EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY
DAYTIME COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE MARINE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042304
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED. A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOWS CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD
STILL POP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TIP NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THINNING.

NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST TABULAR GUIDANCE FOR KVDI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAV PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING
OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TIPPING
EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY
DAYTIME COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE MARINE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 042304
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED. A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOWS CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD
STILL POP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TIP NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THINNING.

NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST TABULAR GUIDANCE FOR KVDI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAV PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING
OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TIPPING
EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY
DAYTIME COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE MARINE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCAE 042139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
539 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ELECTED TO PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
WILL THEN UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 042139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
539 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE
ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN
1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO
FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER
LOW...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ELECTED TO PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
WILL THEN UPDATE ALL TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO SKY/POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. SEEING SOME NON-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF THE TCLT TDWR. ISOLATED SEVERE STILL
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...HAVE SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE CAPE/DCAPE VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.
TRENDS INTO THE EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NRN
NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY A
COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADJUSTED THE TEMPO TIMING TO START AT 20Z WITH
A PREVIOUS AMD AS SEVERAL TSRA ARE DEVELOPING AROUND THE
AIRPORT. LOW-END DOWNBURSTS EVIDENT ON TDWR SO ADDED VRB GUSTS
TO THE TEMPO. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DOES LOOK LIKE IT IS DROPPING
SOMEWHAT SO WILL TAKE THE TEMPO THROUGH 23Z AND MAKE ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS THEREAFTER BASED ON TRENDS. AFTER A ROUND OF STORMS
MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED... BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO STAY MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
VFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS
A BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS
PRECIP FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO
WARM ATMOSPHERE AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE
PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM/TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 042049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO SKY/POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. SEEING SOME NON-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF THE TCLT TDWR. ISOLATED SEVERE STILL
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE...HAVE SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE CAPE/DCAPE VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.
TRENDS INTO THE EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NRN
NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY A
COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADJUSTED THE TEMPO TIMING TO START AT 20Z WITH
A PREVIOUS AMD AS SEVERAL TSRA ARE DEVELOPING AROUND THE
AIRPORT. LOW-END DOWNBURSTS EVIDENT ON TDWR SO ADDED VRB GUSTS
TO THE TEMPO. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DOES LOOK LIKE IT IS DROPPING
SOMEWHAT SO WILL TAKE THE TEMPO THROUGH 23Z AND MAKE ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS THEREAFTER BASED ON TRENDS. AFTER A ROUND OF STORMS
MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED... BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO STAY MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
VFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS
A BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS
PRECIP FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO
WARM ATMOSPHERE AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE
PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM/TDP




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
60S AND UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE WEST
THERE HAVE A BEEN A FEW BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS LOFTING 60-65 DBZ
CORES INTO THE 20-25 KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE VERY
SHORTLIVED AND NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE. WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WILL STEADILY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE. IN RESPONSE THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...MAINLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT GETS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMING ALONG WITH IT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW ILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WITH A MODEST SURGE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 2 FT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME COASTAL
ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE
MARINE AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
60S AND UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE WEST
THERE HAVE A BEEN A FEW BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS LOFTING 60-65 DBZ
CORES INTO THE 20-25 KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE VERY
SHORTLIVED AND NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE. WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WILL STEADILY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE. IN RESPONSE THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...MAINLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT GETS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMING ALONG WITH IT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW ILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WITH A MODEST SURGE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 2 FT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME COASTAL
ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE
MARINE AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
60S AND UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE WEST
THERE HAVE A BEEN A FEW BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS LOFTING 60-65 DBZ
CORES INTO THE 20-25 KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE VERY
SHORTLIVED AND NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE. WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WILL STEADILY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE. IN RESPONSE THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...MAINLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT GETS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMING ALONG WITH IT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW ILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WITH A MODEST SURGE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 2 FT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME COASTAL
ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE
MARINE AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
60S AND UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE WEST
THERE HAVE A BEEN A FEW BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS LOFTING 60-65 DBZ
CORES INTO THE 20-25 KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE VERY
SHORTLIVED AND NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE. WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WILL STEADILY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE. IN RESPONSE THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...MAINLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT GETS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMING ALONG WITH IT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG UPPER FORCING...THUS MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SEA
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION. OVERALL...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SETUP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAN THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...WENT CLOSER TO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSER TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TAD
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW ILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WITH A MODEST SURGE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 2 FT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME COASTAL
ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE
MARINE AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041856
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NRN
NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY A
COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041856
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA...AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA NEAR THE FALL LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THERE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSEUDO-WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
CONVOLUTED WITH AN OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED TO OUR NE...LOOSELY
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES. WHAT THIS DOES
IS PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WHICH IS NOT REALLY DAMMED ACROSS
THE AREA TO OUR N. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NRN
NC MAY FORM A COOL POOL THAT OOZES SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
FORM A SORT OF IN-SITU WEDGE INTO THE FCST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH S AND SW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THE
E/NE FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OR LLVL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MAINTAIN IT. AS A RESULT...ON SATURDAY WE ARE LEFT WITH BASICALLY A
COOL AND CLOUDY NE FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MODELS PUSH PRECIP
PRODUCTION DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
WILL HEDGE AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMP FCST TRICKY. NOT CONVINCED TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP A BIT OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...LITTLE IMPACTFUL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL SFC/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NE CONUS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT ONLY SLIGHT UPSLOPE
FORCING DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS. POPS ARE WARRANTED MAINLY ON ACCOUNT
OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SEEN. THE NAM DEPICTS THE EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING
A MIXED LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM WHICH PARCELS WILL
REMAIN BUOYANT OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS THIS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE AND
ALSO SHOWS POORER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS SLIGHT CHANCE
NOCTURNAL POPS WITH SLIGHT FAVORITISM TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
APPROPRIATE. AFTERNOON CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY AND SO THE HIGHEST OVERALL POPS ARE INCLUDED THEN.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY BUT REBOUND
TO ABOUT CLIMO ON MONDAY WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THERE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA TO DELAY ONSET FOR A
BIT LONGER. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE EXPECTED HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER
START TIME. CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST
AND SOUTH THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
BE MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THERE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA TO DELAY ONSET FOR A
BIT LONGER. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE EXPECTED HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER
START TIME. CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST
AND SOUTH THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
BE MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THERE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA TO DELAY ONSET FOR A
BIT LONGER. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE EXPECTED HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER
START TIME. CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST
AND SOUTH THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
BE MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CU OVER THE
RIDGETOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THERE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA TO DELAY ONSET FOR A
BIT LONGER. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG ENUF
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NOW THAT WE HAVE REALIZED THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE EXPECTED HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER
START TIME. CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST
AND SOUTH THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
BE MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE 500MB PATTERN HAS
A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PROGRESSING EAST IMPINGING ON THE SE RIDGE.  THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE SE WITH AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY LATE FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL BUILD AT WEEKS END OVER THE FAR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THEN DRIFTS EAST AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISS
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND WILL
BE CROSSING OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.  CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 ON THE GFS FOR PIEDMONT GA AND SC LATE
TUESDAY...WEAKER VALUES WED AND 700 TO 1000 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVE AS H8GHER WINDS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE TROUGH.  EVEN THEN THE 700MB WIND WILL
BE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MID WEEK...DIPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITHIN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING SOME STORMS INITIATE TO THE EAST WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD SOME ENHANCED CU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE CLT METRO AREA THRU MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AMEND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO AT 21Z FOR TSRA AND THINK THAT TIMING STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE
MOST PART...AS WE NEED TO SPECIFY A FOUR HOUR WINDOW...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY NEED TO BE AMENDED AGAIN BEFORE THAT. AFTER A ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES THRU THE AREA...WILL KEEP ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BRINGING A LOW CLOUD DECK DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OCCURS IN MOST SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT CEILINGS WERE KEPT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW IT IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MVFR. ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD BASE WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH HEATING AROUND MIDDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOP DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENUF AT KAVL/KHKY TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES WERE LIMITED TO
VCTS/PROB30 BASED ON LACK OF COVERAGE IN CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS A
BACK DOOR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF TO MENTION. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT KAVL IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...MOST LIKELY RESTRICTING VSBY TO MVFR...UNLESS PRECIP
FALLS THERE TODAY. THINK LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL REACH KHKY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT GET HUNG UP MOVING SW AS SUN STARTS TO WARM ATMOSPHERE
AFTER 12Z. WIND SHOULD REMAIN N TO NE THRU THE PERIOD. MORE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEATING ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY
BLOSSOMED WITH IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE.
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT A BIT...AS IT HAS FALLEN TO 66 HERE AT
KCHS. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK AND
NARROW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THANKS TO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR DCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS AT
KSAV WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTY IS
ONGOING. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE TERMINAL TAKING A DIRECT HIT...BUT
HAVE ADDED VCTS THROUGH 20Z. AT KCHS...THE DEW POINT HAS MIXED OUT
AND COVERAGE ISN/T AS CLOSE BY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS YET...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA...HAVE ELECTED TO
PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD. WILL THEN UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA...HAVE ELECTED TO
PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD. WILL THEN UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA...HAVE ELECTED TO
PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD. WILL THEN UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
BACK DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION AND RESULT IN COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DISSIPATES BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. THERE REMAINS A A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA...HAVE ELECTED TO
PLACE VCSH IN AGS/DNL/OGB FOR A SHORT PERIOD. WILL THEN UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BACK
DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BACK
DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE PATTERN IS A BIT COMPLEX WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ALONG
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THOSE
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE. THERE IS A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED
IN SOUNDINGS...AND THAT WILL KEEP INITIATION FROM STARTING UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE MID AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041443
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GEORGIA...SAVE FOR TWO SMALL PATCHES OF STRATOCU AND SOME FOG
LIFTING TO STRATUS IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
STEADY WARM-UP THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR STEADY
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WILL BACK UP PRECIP ONSET. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERITY POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE A MIXED BAG. ON THE ONE HAND...WE LACK
MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE CLOUD BASE WILL BE SO
HIGH THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER/TALLER
STORMS. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMP A DEG OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041443
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GEORGIA...SAVE FOR TWO SMALL PATCHES OF STRATOCU AND SOME FOG
LIFTING TO STRATUS IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
STEADY WARM-UP THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR STEADY
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WILL BACK UP PRECIP ONSET. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERITY POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE A MIXED BAG. ON THE ONE HAND...WE LACK
MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE CLOUD BASE WILL BE SO
HIGH THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER/TALLER
STORMS. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMP A DEG OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...ONLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE SWRN MTNS.
THIS FOG SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL VFR CU DEVELOPS WITH HEATING. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
MODULATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO
PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU
DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN.
ADDED PROB30 FOR THE EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE KEEPING ANY NON-MOUNTAIN LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041049
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE THINK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A DECENT CAP.
IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041049
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE THINK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A DECENT CAP.
IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041049
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE THINK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A DECENT CAP.
IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041049
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE THINK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A DECENT CAP.
IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KCHS JUST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041049
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OFF THE COAST...WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS WERE AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE WITH VERY
WEAK SHEAR. EXPECT GENERALLY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH LFC AND LOW LEVEL INVERTED V FEATURE...ALONG
WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE DCAPE AND
WINDEX VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT...AND POSSIBLE
HAIL.

BY THIS EVENING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  PWAT VALUES INCREASE A
BIT AND WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO THESE FEATURES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT
TO BKN CU/SCU WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040804
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST. MANY
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAWN WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
STAGNANT IN THE MID 70S. A LAYER OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST ATOP
THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INLAND AREAS.
ANY FOG LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT POSING SIGNIFICANT
VSBY ISSUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE
THINK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
DECENT CAP. IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND
TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040804
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST. MANY
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAWN WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
STAGNANT IN THE MID 70S. A LAYER OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST ATOP
THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INLAND AREAS.
ANY FOG LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT POSING SIGNIFICANT
VSBY ISSUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE
THINK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
DECENT CAP. IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND
TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040804
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST. MANY
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAWN WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
STAGNANT IN THE MID 70S. A LAYER OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST ATOP
THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INLAND AREAS.
ANY FOG LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT POSING SIGNIFICANT
VSBY ISSUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE WE
THINK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL RULE THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
DECENT CAP. IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION AND
TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THAT AREA.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MORNING SUBSIDENCE COULD LIKELY GO A LONG
WAY INTO KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION AT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY AFTER
18Z. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTH...NOT MUCH TO GO
ON OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS 20/30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARMER
THAN CLIMO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH HEAT INDICES 99-101 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE NE
WILL EDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT CLOSER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT BY THE TIME A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH LATE...WE THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM OVERALL. AFTER 2 AM...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDLANDS OR PEE DEE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS LATER TONIGHT.
THERE ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN INLAND FROM U.S. 17 BUT NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE AS YET TO ADD TO THE FORECAST/GRIDDED PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN SC.
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AMPLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WE SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND.

ON SUNDAY THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ENE WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE PWATS
RECOVER INTO THE 1.9-2.0" RANGE. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES...IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE...ALL POINT TOWARD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING CLOSE TO 6 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN...BRINGING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER LAND AREAS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AND MON AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT A LAZY PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
WEST/NW IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 OR 2
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SEAS STILL IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A WEAK NE SURGE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON
PILOT BUOY LATE BUT WE ARE THINKING SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK OFF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO SETUP OVER THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL YIELD A TYPICAL WARM SEASON PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT THE COAST AND NOCTURNAL JETTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040723
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
323 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OFF THE COAST...WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS WERE AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE WITH VERY
WEAK SHEAR. EXPECT GENERALLY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH LFC AND LOW LEVEL INVERTED V FEATURE...ALONG
WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE DCAPE AND
WINDEX VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT...AND POSSIBLE
HAIL.

BY THIS EVENING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  PWAT VALUES INCREASE A
BIT AND WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO THESE FEATURES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB...WITH LOWER VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES OGB/AGS...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT AGS. AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU/SCU WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040723
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
323 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OFF THE COAST...WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS WERE AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE WITH VERY
WEAK SHEAR. EXPECT GENERALLY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH LFC AND LOW LEVEL INVERTED V FEATURE...ALONG
WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE DCAPE AND
WINDEX VALUES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT...AND POSSIBLE
HAIL.

BY THIS EVENING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  PWAT VALUES INCREASE A
BIT AND WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO THESE FEATURES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB...WITH LOWER VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES OGB/AGS...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT AGS. AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU/SCU WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040720
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY MODULATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE
SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT
TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THRU EARLY MORNING. EXPECT FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS BUT KAVL SHUD REMAIN MVFR WITH FEW IFR CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND
CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN. ADDED PROB30 FOR THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND
LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 040720
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY MODULATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE
SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT
TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THRU EARLY MORNING. EXPECT FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS BUT KAVL SHUD REMAIN MVFR WITH FEW IFR CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND
CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN. ADDED PROB30 FOR THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND
LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040720
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP
INTO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME.
CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NC WITH LIKELY POP FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL SHEAR...BUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THRU LATE EVENING...BUT RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE E TO NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS AND MID 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OF NEAR THE SC COAST...SOUTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL DATA SHOWS A LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...AND EVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW LACKS AN
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT HOWEVER...SUPPORTING CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST USA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GA.
THIS DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS
HAS A TROUGH FROM THE GULF TO NC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING SOUTH
OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROUGH FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE GULF. BY WEDNESDAY THE TWO MODELS START TO AGREE ON
THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE GULF TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY MODULATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE BOUNDARY ARRIVING THURSDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...A AND PERHAPS MORE
SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW REMAINS PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELLS MOVING. PERIOD OF
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUR RIDGE AT
TIMES...BUT AT THIS POINT NO PROLONGED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL..TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THRU EARLY MORNING. EXPECT FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS BUT KAVL SHUD REMAIN MVFR WITH FEW IFR CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND
CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN. ADDED PROB30 FOR THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND
LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 040535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND CU/STRATOCU ARE DISSIPATING.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WHILE FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. GOING FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE...SO UPDATE MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THRU EARLY MORNING. EXPECT FOG IN THE MTN
VALLEYS BUT KAVL SHUD REMAIN MVFR WITH FEW IFR CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND. SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU DEVELOPING NEAR NOON AND
CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN. ADDED PROB30 FOR THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND
LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB...WITH LOWER VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES OGB/AGS...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT AGS. AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU/SCU WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB...WITH LOWER VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES OGB/AGS...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT AGS. AFTER MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU/SCU WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR.
HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
COOLER AND DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR.
HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
COOLER AND DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR.
HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
COOLER AND DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR.
HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
COOLER AND DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PROBS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS
ON THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 040244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LEFT ACROSS
MCDOWELL COUNTY AT UPDATE TIME. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED TRENDS.

AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040209
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1009 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY DRIVEN BY A H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL THEN
REMAIN OVER COASTAL WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR. HAVE INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER AND DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040209
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1009 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY DRIVEN BY A H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL THEN
REMAIN OVER COASTAL WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME CALM AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR. HAVE INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER AND DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BECAUSE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING PLUS MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HRRR DISPLAYED DRY CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INDICATING SOME MIXING.
THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
FEW AREAS WILL HAVE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KGSP 040007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
POSSIBLE FEW-SCT LOW VFR CU OUT THERE BUT RAPIDLY CLEARING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. REDUCED SKY COVER AS WELL.
TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TRENDS
BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
POSSIBLE FEW-SCT LOW VFR CU OUT THERE BUT RAPIDLY CLEARING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 5-8KFT CU AGAIN FRIDAY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NE
AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KCHS 032358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
THEN OCCUR OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM...BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN
THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
THEN OCCUR OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM...BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN
THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 032358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
THEN OCCUR OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM...BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN
THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 032349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 032349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
ROTATE TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
447 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS THIS EVENING.  RADARS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS MEANS AREA COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA/SC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT. ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SEEN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES FURTHER OFF
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 032047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
447 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS THIS EVENING.  RADARS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS MEANS AREA COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA/SC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT. ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SEEN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES FURTHER OFF
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR
ALTHOUGH A PASSING STORM COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR BR
AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 032043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE 21Z TAF EXCEPT
TO ADD SOME CLARIFICATION ON CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THRU
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT HIGH BASED
STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD BASES
GENERALLY IN THE 060 TO 080 RANGE. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED
RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH
OR VCTS AT KAVL AND KAND. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET.
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A VSBY RESTRICTION AT KAVL THAT WOULD END BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT THE REST OF THE MORNING TO BE BENIGN. IN GENERAL...WIND WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM/TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 032043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBS. POPS LOOK
GOOD GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL CONCERN AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG.

AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE 21Z TAF EXCEPT
TO ADD SOME CLARIFICATION ON CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THRU
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT HIGH BASED
STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD BASES
GENERALLY IN THE 060 TO 080 RANGE. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED
RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH
OR VCTS AT KAVL AND KAND. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET.
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A VSBY RESTRICTION AT KAVL THAT WOULD END BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT THE REST OF THE MORNING TO BE BENIGN. IN GENERAL...WIND WILL
REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM/TDP




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON THE SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO A
SHARP SHORTWAVE NOW PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SO THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT...NOR A VERY IMPRESSIVE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT. DCAPES
DO RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN...SO WE
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW. COVERAGE ALSO STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LAND BASED CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS REMAIN
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR RESPONSE...BUT THE FORECAST HANGS ON
TO A TIER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND
NEAR SURFACE RH/S INCREASE...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY
INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 6-8 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-
2 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.&&

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON THE SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO A
SHARP SHORTWAVE NOW PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SO THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT...NOR A VERY IMPRESSIVE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT. DCAPES
DO RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN...SO WE
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW. COVERAGE ALSO STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LAND BASED CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS REMAIN
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR RESPONSE...BUT THE FORECAST HANGS ON
TO A TIER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND
NEAR SURFACE RH/S INCREASE...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY
INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO MINNESOTA.
WHILE ALOFT WE FIND A NW FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 19-20C...OR AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL. ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 100-105F...BUT BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
STRONG CAP AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ISN/T MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SUBTLE
TROUGH INLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE IS A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH
COULD SPUR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL
INFLUENCES TAKES OVER. THEN THE UPSTREAM BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LIMITED OVERNIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH...GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION SUGGESTS AN INLAND FOG RISK. WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH AN UNUSUAL EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ALIGNED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALOFT NEARBY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. TO THE NORTH
WE FIND A DEEP ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH/SW FROM THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S MORE
COMMON FOR HIGHS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S SNEAKING INTO THE NW TIER
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A BACKDOOR SEA BREEZE ION SATURDAY
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED POPS. WHILE WE LOSE THE FORCING FROM THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WE GAIN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY...AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION AND THE FRONT IS SLOWER IN
ARRIVING THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

MEANWHILE IN THE SW ATLANTIC...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY ALLOW FOR A BROAD AND WEAK REGION OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AND/OR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 6-8 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-
2 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.&&

FRIDAY...A LAX PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM WEST/NW
IN THE MORNING TO EAST/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WON/T BE ANY HIGHER
THAN 1 OR 2 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE NORTH/NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP...AND THAT ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE
MODEST NE/EAST PINCHING TO OCCUR. NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 OR PERHAPS 4 FEET.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECENT PINCHING WILL PERSIST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/SE AND AN
INLAND WEDGE RELUCTANT TO RELAX IT/S HOLD OVER THE SE. GRADUALLY
THOUGH THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLACKEN AS THE ATLANTIC LOW HEADS
NORTHWARD AND THE INLAND HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...UNLESS THE PINCHING IS STRONGER THAN
NOW ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH FOR
BACK SWELL ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ATLANTIC.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MODERATE NE TO EAST WIND DEVELOPS
AND SMALL SWELLS COULD START IMPACTING THE BEACHES BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SEEING CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER N GEORGIA AT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS FEATURE A STRANGE AND CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A WEAK NW FLOW...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAT LACKS DPVA. EXPECT A
GENERAL LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. IN SPITE
OF A WEAK NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE COURTESY OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NE...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH HAD A CHANCE POP
EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AGAIN FOR TEMPS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OUR AREA REMAINS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...WILL HELP PUSH A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WE WOULD EXPECT DIURAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY WANE
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AN UPTICK IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA)
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH POPS STEADILY INCREASING IN
OUR WESTERN FA. WE HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GOOD UPGLIDE EXPECTED. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING THE OVERALL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SET-UP REMAINS STAGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE
HAVE KEPT POPS GOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND A FALLING
THERMAL PATTERN...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHT UNDER GUIDE. THIS WILL
ALSO LEND ITSELF TO SMALLER DIURNAL TRENDS...AS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWFA
FROM THE EAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
AN INITIALLY STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD...AND WHILE GFS/EC DIFFER ON ITS DEPICTED STRENGTH THEY
AGREE IT WILL REACH THE TENN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY THU
NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF THE FROPA. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIURNAL. TUE APPEARS TO BE THE DAY UNDER THE LEAST INFLUENCE OF
EITHER THE EASTERLY FLOW OR THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
BEARS THE LOWEST POPS OVERALL. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT AT ABOUT
NORMAL MONDAY WITH THE WEDGELIKE AIRMASS STILL PRESENT...BUT AS
THIS RETREATS THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION. MINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT HIGH BASED STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE 060 TO 080 RANGE. THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH OR VCTS AT KAVL AND KAND. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE
MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A VSBY RESTRICTION AT
KAVL THAT WOULD END BY MID MORNING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE MORNING
TO BE BENIGN. IN GENERAL...WIND WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS THIS EVENING.  RADARS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS MEANS AREA COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA/SC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT. ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SEEN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES FURTHER OFF
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT.  CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS THIS EVENING.  RADARS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS MEANS AREA COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA/SC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT. ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SEEN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES FURTHER OFF
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT.  CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARDS THIS EVENING.  RADARS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS MEANS AREA COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA/SC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT. ISOLATED
TO MAYBE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SEEN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES FURTHER OFF
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PROVIDE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT.  CAN NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR BR AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031752
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N GEORGIA AT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTEREND OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT HIGH BASED STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE 060 TO 080 RANGE. THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH OR VCTS AT KAVL AND KAND. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE
MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A VSBY RESTRICTION AT
KAVL THAT WOULD END BY MID MORNING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE MORNING
TO BE BENIGN. IN GENERAL...WIND WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031752
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N GEORGIA AT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER CENTEREND OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND E CENTRAL GA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE CSRA THAT EXTENDS
UP INTO THE LAKELANDS. WHILE IT IS SUSPECTED THAT BAD DEWPTS (IN THE
MID 70S) ARE INFLATING BUOYANCY ESTIMATES IN THAT REGION...EVEN IF
WE THROW AWAY THE SUSPICIOUS OBS AND GO ONLY WITH KAHN AND KGRD...WE
STILL HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO WITH 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THAT SORT OF ENVIRONMENT IN THE SUMMER USUALLY WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. YET...THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING MUCH IN THAT
AREA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE MODELS INITIALIZED PROPERLY WITH THE
MOISTURE POOL BEING BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-
ARW AND 4KM WRF FOR SPC SHOW A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS THE
TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL RAISE THE
PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL NE GEORGIA AND THE
LAKELANDS. BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...JUST IN CASE. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS OK. NO CHANGES
TO MAX TEMPS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT HIGH BASED STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE 060 TO 080 RANGE. THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH OR VCTS AT KAVL AND KAND. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE
MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A VSBY RESTRICTION AT
KAVL THAT WOULD END BY MID MORNING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE MORNING
TO BE BENIGN. IN GENERAL...WIND WILL REMAIN N TO NE AND LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...OVER THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...IN PARTICULAR
ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COASTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
MORNING HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH A MODEST TICK UPWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES
AND DCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VERY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031502
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS TEMPORARILY KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION IN CHECK. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
THAT HAS APPEARED IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 3000+ SFC BASED CAPE...DUE MAINLY TO A SMALL
ZONE WHERE SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACCORDING TO OBS. IT
COULD BE THAT THE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ERROR...BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THREE OF THEM ARE NEAR EACH OTHER (KEBA/KIIY/KHQU). THAT
RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE PRECIP CHANCE NEEDS TO BE
RAISED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. ON THE ONE HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS JUST S...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SO IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON
THE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY
SORT OF CLEARING THAT WOULD PERMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE AREA OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOPING RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS PUSHED OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST AND MODELS TAKE IT FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND...MAINLY ALONG OUTFLOW
FROM THE PRIOR CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE EXPANDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DIURNAL
INITIATION FROM STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTEAD...MODELS
SHOWS MOST OF THE COVERAGE OCCURRING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW
NOTABLY DISTINCT THIS SHORTWAVE IS...IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING
THAT ALL THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER MUTED CONVECTIVE RESPONSE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO
PERHAPS THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON
THE LOW END. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NOTED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND FOLLOWING THE GEM CLOUD FORECAST
PRODUCT...HIGHS HAVE BEEN COOLED A BIT TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY...AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE AREA OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOPING RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS PUSHED OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST AND MODELS TAKE IT FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND...MAINLY ALONG OUTFLOW
FROM THE PRIOR CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE EXPANDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DIURNAL
INITIATION FROM STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTEAD...MODELS
SHOWS MOST OF THE COVERAGE OCCURRING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW
NOTABLY DISTINCT THIS SHORTWAVE IS...IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING
THAT ALL THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER MUTED CONVECTIVE RESPONSE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO
PERHAPS THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON
THE LOW END. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NOTED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND FOLLOWING THE GEM CLOUD FORECAST
PRODUCT...HIGHS HAVE BEEN COOLED A BIT TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEN...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...THE REMNANT EDDY FROM ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST AROUND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED
FROM THE RESULT OF THE LAND BREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH TO THE GEORGIA
BARRIER ISLANDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OFT THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS BOTH
SUGGEST GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THE SHORT WAVE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND THE WEAK LOW PASSING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
WEAK MID MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THE SLOWLY EJECTING LOW EASES ON. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE LATE MORNING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER TO MID
90S BUT POTENTIAL FOR DEW POINT POOLING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.

A FAIRLY DECENT LOOKING MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE CAPPED OFF INITIALLY BY THE MIDDAY SUBSIDENCE REGIME.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS MAINLY INLAND FROM U.S. 17
TODAY WITH A FEW OF THE TSTMS PERHAPS DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
LATE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE WITH A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY. WE CAPPED
POPS AT 30 PERCENT. COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH AT THE KSAV TERMINAL UNTIL 14Z.
THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR
WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE BORN ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. DEEP
MOISTURE WAS PILING UP JUST ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTH GEORGIA COAST.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WATERS WHILE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
HEAVY RAINS WILL LOCALLY THERE ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT.

GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A WEAK SURFACE MOVES LATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT
OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. WAVES COULD BE UP TO
3 FT SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF TODAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEN...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...THE REMNANT EDDY FROM ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST AROUND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED
FROM THE RESULT OF THE LAND BREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH TO THE GEORGIA
BARRIER ISLANDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OFT THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS BOTH
SUGGEST GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THE SHORT WAVE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND THE WEAK LOW PASSING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
WEAK MID MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THE SLOWLY EJECTING LOW EASES ON. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE LATE MORNING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER TO MID
90S BUT POTENTIAL FOR DEW POINT POOLING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.

A FAIRLY DECENT LOOKING MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE CAPPED OFF INITIALLY BY THE MIDDAY SUBSIDENCE REGIME.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS MAINLY INLAND FROM U.S. 17
TODAY WITH A FEW OF THE TSTMS PERHAPS DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
LATE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE WITH A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY. WE CAPPED
POPS AT 30 PERCENT. COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH AT THE KSAV TERMINAL UNTIL 14Z.
THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR
WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE BORN ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. DEEP
MOISTURE WAS PILING UP JUST ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTH GEORGIA COAST.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WATERS WHILE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
HEAVY RAINS WILL LOCALLY THERE ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT.

GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A WEAK SURFACE MOVES LATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT
OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. WAVES COULD BE UP TO
3 FT SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF TODAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEN...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...THE REMNANT EDDY FROM ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST AROUND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED
FROM THE RESULT OF THE LAND BREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH TO THE GEORGIA
BARRIER ISLANDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OFT THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS BOTH
SUGGEST GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THE SHORT WAVE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND THE WEAK LOW PASSING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
WEAK MID MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THE SLOWLY EJECTING LOW EASES ON. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE LATE MORNING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER TO MID
90S BUT POTENTIAL FOR DEW POINT POOLING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.

A FAIRLY DECENT LOOKING MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE CAPPED OFF INITIALLY BY THE MIDDAY SUBSIDENCE REGIME.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS MAINLY INLAND FROM U.S. 17
TODAY WITH A FEW OF THE TSTMS PERHAPS DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
LATE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE WITH A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY. WE CAPPED
POPS AT 30 PERCENT. COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH AT THE KSAV TERMINAL UNTIL 14Z.
THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR
WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE BORN ERIKA HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. DEEP
MOISTURE WAS PILING UP JUST ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTH GEORGIA COAST.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WATERS WHILE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
HEAVY RAINS WILL LOCALLY THERE ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT.

GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A WEAK SURFACE MOVES LATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT
OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. WAVES COULD BE UP TO
3 FT SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF TODAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 031052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN
ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT
RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. LABOR DAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT MIXING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF KAND...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW
TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST
NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVES DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030901
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE
MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE
SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN
TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER
FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
SLOW TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030901
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUD PROBLEMS AT BAY OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FEATURE
MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE
SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN
TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER
FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
SLOW TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030815
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEN...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE REMNANT EDDY FROM ERIKA IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST EARLY MORNING AROUND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT GEORGIA WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL DAWN. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LOWER-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
SHOULD SPREAD N AND NE TO THE EAST OF I-95 ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST...LIGHTER SHOWERS AS FAR N AS FRIPP ISLAND SC. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS TRICKY ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS W OF I-95.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS BOTH
SUGGEST GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THE SHORT WAVE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND THE WEAK LOW PASSING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
WEAK MID MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THE SLOWLY EJECTING LOW EASES ON. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE LATE MORNING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER TO MID
90S BUT POTENTIAL FOR DEW POINT POOLING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.

A FAIRLY DECENT LOOKING MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE CAPPED OFF INITIALLY BY THE MIDDAY SUBSIDENCE REGIME.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS MAINLY INLAND FROM U.S. 17
TODAY WITH A FEW OF THE TSTMS PERHAPS DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST
LATE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE WITH A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY. WE CAPPED
POPS AT 30 PERCENT. COVERAGE SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE EVENING
AS SOME WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE RIPPLES PAST THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH PATCHY FOG MOST LIKELY
WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...EXPECT A HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL...AND
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F SHOULD BE COMMON.
DESPITE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 03/00Z GFS DEPICTS A
WARM/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THAN SPARSE/BRIEF COVERAGE OF ANY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/ALONG AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 03Z NAM AND EURO
DEPICT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MULTICELL SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF PULSE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE NIGHT/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE MOST STABLE PART OF THE
DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT ARE PLACED ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS A LONG FETCH NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS 70-75 ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 850-500
MB AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPILL
ONSHORE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY...LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED
BY SURFACE FEATURES AND THE UPPER LOW/POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REFOCUS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY WETTER PERIODS/HIGHER POPS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON THE BEACHES AND MID 80S
INLAND ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OF THE REGION AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPEND
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A TREND
TOWARD WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH PRE-DAWN AT THE KSAV TERMINAL.
THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR
WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THROUGH MONDAY... OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY WITHIN LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE CAPE VERDE BORN ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. DEEP MOISTURE WAS PILING UP JUST ALONG AND OFF THE
SOUTH GEORGIA COAST. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THIS MORNING OVER GEORGIA WATERS WHILE THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE.

GENERALLY ANOTHER FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A WEAK SURFACE MOVES LATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT
OR LESS ON AVERAGE AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. WAVES COULD BE UP TO
3 FT SEAWARD FROM GRAYS REEF TODAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONGOING WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF GA WATERS BY LATER
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LABOR DAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ENHANCES THE ONSHORE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT COULD BEGIN TO RELAX
AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE THURSDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030701
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LIKELY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING
WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
POOLED. IN ADDITION TO THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER
90S TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
CENTER OF A 1025+MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY AND A ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
EAST FACING SLOPES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EAST. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A ELONGATED H5
H5 VORT SLIDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRAS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS INDICATES THAT PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE NE WINDS...BKN
SKY COVER...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON SAT. I WILL MAINTAIN COOL HIGH
FOR SAT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY...NE WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS
SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE
SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE
MTNS...FOOTHILLS....AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON. ON TUESDAY...MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...YIELDING WEAK VALUES OF INSTABILITY. I WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN MILD MID
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES MAY REMAIN
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. I WILL FORECAST
DIURNAL SCHC TO CHC POPS...COVERAGE FAVORED OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP
SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S ARE STILL
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL
CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NRN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP
SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S ARE STILL
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL
CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NRN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP
SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S ARE STILL
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL
CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NRN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD GENERALLY QUASH ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL. THE UPPER FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS TIMING WILL NOT FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SRN TIER INSTABILITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS SRN TIER FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP
SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY DRIFT OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DEWPOINT MIXING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FARTHER OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...PLENTY OF LOWER 90S ARE STILL
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT N TO NE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N. ADDITIONAL 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL
CONFINE ANY OVERNIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NRN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SLOW
TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINT MIXING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND WITH SCATTERED RIDGE TOP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TOGGLING WEST NEAR KAND THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030238
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL EXIT OUR NORTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A SOLID 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS LIMITED TO ONLY THE PARTICULARLY FOG-PRONE MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 730 PM...STILL A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING DOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND EXPECT
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. OUR AREA IS LEFT IN WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE FLOW. ONE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET PICKED UP
BY THE MEAN FLOW...TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WORKING ITS
WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WITH IT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THUS KEEPING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. A VERY VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW AS WELL AND DESPITE SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...SEEMS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. DESPITE
ALL THIS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
LOW 90S ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT AND 80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME TS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL-DISPLACED
FROM THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KAVL...WHERE THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR 5SM/SCT004 FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE...OCCL VFR CU OR STRATOCU IN
THE 050-070 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VRBL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY...
STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 030238
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND MOIST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL EXIT OUR NORTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A SOLID 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS LIMITED TO ONLY THE PARTICULARLY FOG-PRONE MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 730 PM...STILL A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING DOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND EXPECT
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. OUR AREA IS LEFT IN WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE FLOW. ONE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GET PICKED UP
BY THE MEAN FLOW...TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WORKING ITS
WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WITH IT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THUS KEEPING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. A VERY VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW AS WELL AND DESPITE SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...SEEMS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. DESPITE
ALL THIS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
LOW 90S ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT AND 80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...EXTENDING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
CWFA WITHIN VERY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THRU THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FLOW TRANSPORTING INCREASING LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHUD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN INSTBY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR LIFT. SO I
WILL FCST A SHOTGUN CHC POP ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POP FOR SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS THICKNESSES DON/T FALL MUCH UNTIL
SATURDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE GOING THINKING OF SFC RIDGING CONTINUING TO NOSE SSWD INTO THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL BE A TAD THINNER WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WARMER. WITH SFC PRESSURES FCST TO RISE ON LABOR
DAY MONDAY...PROGRESSIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD CLIMO IS EXPECTED. THE INHERITED CLIMO RANGE...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS IS.
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AND POP NEAR CLIMO WITH AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW
PROMPTING GREATER TSTM CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME TS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL-DISPLACED
FROM THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KAVL...WHERE THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR 5SM/SCT004 FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE...OCCL VFR CU OR STRATOCU IN
THE 050-070 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VRBL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY...
STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030220
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030220
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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