Home > Products > State Listing > South Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDGSP |  AFDCAE |  AFDCHS |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 232344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIGHT SW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
LINGERING TRIGGERING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR INTERSTATE 85
MAY WELL KEEP AT LEAST SCT TSTM COVERAGE GOING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
THROUGH MID EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVE DIMINISHED. ANTICIPATE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL...AND ALSO THROUGHOUT THE MTN VALLEYS.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE TO CHARLESTON WV THIS EVENING. PRE/FRONTAL
SHRA/TSRA COULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS LATER IN THE MORNING
AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE AREA THU AFTN. THE FRONTAL ZONE FORCING...A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND SBCAPES CAPES POOLING TO BETWEEN
1000-2000J DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WARRANT CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
THROUGHOUT. SPC IS STILL JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE I-77 CORRIDOR
EASTWARD WITH A 5 PERCENT SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON THU WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION SO THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AXIS OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU EARLY
FRI. POPS WILL DECLINE EAST OF THE MTNS FOLLOWING THE END OF
HEATING...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION
RESULTING FROM POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL. PROFILES FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER DO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF MIDLEVEL CAA FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THUS A SCHC POP IS KEPT INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. GOING
FORWARD HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF MOST
DEEP CONVECTION FRI AND SAT. THE NAM AND A PORTION OF THE SREF
MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THE INVERSION BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWFA DRY DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE FRI AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT...WELL SE OF
I-85...WHERE THE HIGH WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A DRY FCST SATURDAY...THOUGH BY THAT TIME THE HIGH HAS
BECOME INDISTINCT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. POPS
THUS COULD BE EASILY REINTRODUCED FOR SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FCST
PACKAGES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...TWO OUTFLOWS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING...ONE FROM THE NW AND ONE FROM THE S. THE ONE FROM THE NW
APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED FIRST AND SHOULD WIN OUT FOR A SHORT WHILE
AS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL HAS DIMINISHED. SHOWERS TRAINING
NE TOWARD THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY BRING -SHRA AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z
AND TURN WINDS BACK SW. WINDS WILL PREVAIL SW THROUGH THE LATER
EVENING HOURS...WITH SHRA COVERAGE WANING ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY
SCT TO BKN VFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL RAMP
BACK UP THROUGH THU...WITH VCSH WARRANTED AFTER 15Z AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH SCT TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY TSRA THROUGH THU AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...MID EVENING CONVECTION REMAINS LINED UP ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AREA...OCCASIONALLY ADVECTING OUT CLOSE TO KGMU AND
KGSP...WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVERAGE IS FORMING ALONG OLD OUTFLOWS.
WILL FEATURE VCTS FOR BOTH KGMU AND KGSP THROUGH 02Z...WITH MAINLY
JUST VCSH FROM KAVL TO KHKY...AND DRY CONDITIONS AT KAND. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IFR LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AFTER 06Z AND LIFR CIGS QUITE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AFTER 09Z.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP FROM THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVING
FRONT THROUGH THU...WITH COVERAGE FEATURED MAINLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. ANTICIPATE SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...EXCEPT
PERSISTENT NW FLOW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THU EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRI AND SAT SHOULD BE QUIET AND
VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG/LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 232344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIGHT SW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
LINGERING TRIGGERING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR INTERSTATE 85
MAY WELL KEEP AT LEAST SCT TSTM COVERAGE GOING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
THROUGH MID EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVE DIMINISHED. ANTICIPATE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL...AND ALSO THROUGHOUT THE MTN VALLEYS.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE TO CHARLESTON WV THIS EVENING. PRE/FRONTAL
SHRA/TSRA COULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS LATER IN THE MORNING
AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE AREA THU AFTN. THE FRONTAL ZONE FORCING...A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND SBCAPES CAPES POOLING TO BETWEEN
1000-2000J DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WARRANT CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
THROUGHOUT. SPC IS STILL JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE I-77 CORRIDOR
EASTWARD WITH A 5 PERCENT SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON THU WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION SO THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AXIS OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU EARLY
FRI. POPS WILL DECLINE EAST OF THE MTNS FOLLOWING THE END OF
HEATING...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION
RESULTING FROM POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL. PROFILES FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER DO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF MIDLEVEL CAA FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THUS A SCHC POP IS KEPT INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. GOING
FORWARD HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF MOST
DEEP CONVECTION FRI AND SAT. THE NAM AND A PORTION OF THE SREF
MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THE INVERSION BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWFA DRY DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE FRI AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT...WELL SE OF
I-85...WHERE THE HIGH WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A DRY FCST SATURDAY...THOUGH BY THAT TIME THE HIGH HAS
BECOME INDISTINCT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. POPS
THUS COULD BE EASILY REINTRODUCED FOR SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FCST
PACKAGES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...TWO OUTFLOWS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING...ONE FROM THE NW AND ONE FROM THE S. THE ONE FROM THE NW
APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED FIRST AND SHOULD WIN OUT FOR A SHORT WHILE
AS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL HAS DIMINISHED. SHOWERS TRAINING
NE TOWARD THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY BRING -SHRA AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z
AND TURN WINDS BACK SW. WINDS WILL PREVAIL SW THROUGH THE LATER
EVENING HOURS...WITH SHRA COVERAGE WANING ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY
SCT TO BKN VFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL RAMP
BACK UP THROUGH THU...WITH VCSH WARRANTED AFTER 15Z AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH SCT TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY TSRA THROUGH THU AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...MID EVENING CONVECTION REMAINS LINED UP ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AREA...OCCASIONALLY ADVECTING OUT CLOSE TO KGMU AND
KGSP...WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVERAGE IS FORMING ALONG OLD OUTFLOWS.
WILL FEATURE VCTS FOR BOTH KGMU AND KGSP THROUGH 02Z...WITH MAINLY
JUST VCSH FROM KAVL TO KHKY...AND DRY CONDITIONS AT KAND. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IFR LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AFTER 06Z AND LIFR CIGS QUITE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AFTER 09Z.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP FROM THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVING
FRONT THROUGH THU...WITH COVERAGE FEATURED MAINLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. ANTICIPATE SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...EXCEPT
PERSISTENT NW FLOW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THU EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRI AND SAT SHOULD BE QUIET AND
VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG/LG






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 232328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA FIZZLED QUICKLY PRIOR TO
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA FIZZLED QUICKLY PRIOR TO
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/WMS





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 232108
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 450 PM EDT...COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
WARRANT BRIEF CATEGORICAL POP VALUES ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS BACK TO
THE IMMEDIATE ESCARPMENT AREAS. OUTFLOWS MAY DRIVE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FARTHER S INTO THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...SO CHC
POPS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP THERE AS WELL THROUGH 7 PM. STILL
ANTICIPATE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINLY MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL AS DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN THE BEST
COVERAGE AREAS AND THE PROFILES ARE QUITE WARM WITH FREEZING LEVELS
ABOVE 15 KFT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...SO WILL LOWER POPS QUICKLY IN THE 23Z TO 02Z
TIMEFRAME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ON THU AS A STRONG SHORT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO JUST NW OF THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU....AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE WINDS THROUGH THE VERTICAL PROFILE ARE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE IN
NATURE. WILL BUY INTO THE HIGH POPS BEING ADVERTISED AS THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH/FALLING HEIGHTS WILL TAP INTO CAPES POOLING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000J
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC IS STILL JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE I-77
CORRIDOR EASTWARD WITH A 5% SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY. WITH
IMPROVING SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON THU WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION SO THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AXIS OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU EARLY
FRI. POPS WILL DECLINE EAST OF THE MTNS FOLLOWING THE END OF
HEATING...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION
RESULTING FROM POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL. PROFILES FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER DO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF MIDLEVEL CAA FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THUS A SCHC POP IS KEPT INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. GOING
FORWARD HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF MOST
DEEP CONVECTION FRI AND SAT. THE NAM AND A PORTION OF THE SREF
MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THE INVERSION BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWFA DRY DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE FRI AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT...WELL SE OF
I-85...WHERE THE HIGH WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A DRY FCST SATURDAY...THOUGH BY THAT TIME THE HIGH HAS
BECOME INDISTINCT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. POPS
THUS COULD BE EASILY REINTRODUCED FOR SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FCST
PACKAGES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL CONVECTION THIS AFTN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED WELL NW OR
S OF THE AIRFIELD...AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN STILL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN IMMEDIATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..SO
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH MENTION FOR NOW UNLESS ANY TS GETS CLOSER
THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET
AND VFR. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR
TSRA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY SOLID COVERAGE HAS DEVELOPED FROM KAVL TO
KHKY...AND ALSO NEARING KGMU TO KGSP ON A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW.  THESE
SITES WILL GET TEMPO TSRA THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH JUST VCTS
MENTIONED AT KAND. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL WHERE LIFR FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AGAIN FOR EARLY THU. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SAT SHOULD BE
QUIET AND VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG/LG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 231835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE SPC MESO-ANAL SHOWS
SBCAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1500-2000J WITH NO CIN INDICATED.
THEREFORE...SOME SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
LEE TROUGH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO WILL LOWER POPS
QUICKLY IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ON THU AS A STRONG SHORT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO JUST NW OF THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU....AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE WINDS THROUGH THE VERTICAL PROFILE ARE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE IN
NATURE. WILL BUY INTO THE HIGH POPS BEING ADVERTISED AS THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH/FALLING HEIGHTS WILL TAP INTO CAPES POOLING TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000J DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC IS STILL JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE I-77 CORRIDOR EASTWARD WITH A 5% SEVERE THREAT ON
THURSDAY. WITH IMPROVING SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SO THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AXIS OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU EARLY
FRI. POPS WILL DECLINE EAST OF THE MTNS FOLLOWING THE END OF
HEATING...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION
RESULTING FROM POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL. PROFILES FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER DO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF MIDLEVEL CAA FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THUS A SCHC POP IS KEPT INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. GOING
FORWARD HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF MOST
DEEP CONVECTION FRI AND SAT. THE NAM AND A PORTION OF THE SREF
MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THE INVERSION BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWFA DRY DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE FRI AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT...WELL SE OF
I-85...WHERE THE HIGH WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A DRY FCST SATURDAY...THOUGH BY THAT TIME THE HIGH HAS
BECOME INDISTINCT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. POPS
THUS COULD BE EASILY REINTRODUCED FOR SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FCST
PACKAGES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TEH CLT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HENCE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH JUST A VCSH 20-23Z WHICH SHOULD BE
THE WINDOW FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGN SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR. THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY TAF SITE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
CARRY TEMPO TSRA IS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL JUST MENTION A VCTS
AT OTHER AIR FIELDS. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL WHERE LIFR FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AGAIN FOR EARLY THU. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SAT SHOULD BE
QUIET AND VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 231835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE SPC MESO-ANAL SHOWS
SBCAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1500-2000J WITH NO CIN INDICATED.
THEREFORE...SOME SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
LEE TROUGH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO WILL LOWER POPS
QUICKLY IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ON THU AS A STRONG SHORT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO JUST NW OF THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU....AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE WINDS THROUGH THE VERTICAL PROFILE ARE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE IN
NATURE. WILL BUY INTO THE HIGH POPS BEING ADVERTISED AS THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH/FALLING HEIGHTS WILL TAP INTO CAPES POOLING TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000J DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC IS STILL JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE I-77 CORRIDOR EASTWARD WITH A 5% SEVERE THREAT ON
THURSDAY. WITH IMPROVING SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SO THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AXIS OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU EARLY
FRI. POPS WILL DECLINE EAST OF THE MTNS FOLLOWING THE END OF
HEATING...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION
RESULTING FROM POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL. PROFILES FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER DO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF MIDLEVEL CAA FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THUS A SCHC POP IS KEPT INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. GOING
FORWARD HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF MOST
DEEP CONVECTION FRI AND SAT. THE NAM AND A PORTION OF THE SREF
MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THE INVERSION BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWFA DRY DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADVERTISE SCHC POPS OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE FRI AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT...WELL SE OF
I-85...WHERE THE HIGH WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR A DRY FCST SATURDAY...THOUGH BY THAT TIME THE HIGH HAS
BECOME INDISTINCT DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. POPS
THUS COULD BE EASILY REINTRODUCED FOR SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FCST
PACKAGES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TEH CLT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HENCE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH JUST A VCSH 20-23Z WHICH SHOULD BE
THE WINDOW FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGN SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR. THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY TAF SITE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
CARRY TEMPO TSRA IS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL JUST MENTION A VCTS
AT OTHER AIR FIELDS. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL WHERE LIFR FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AGAIN FOR EARLY THU. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS
PROB30 TSRA FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SAT SHOULD BE
QUIET AND VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 231748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT NOON EDT...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE TERRAIN IS WORKING
OUT. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ISN`T SURPRISING
SINCE CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2000J. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED POPS PER CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
GRID FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST CONSHORT RUN.

AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TEH CLT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HENCE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH JUST A VCSH 20-23Z WHICH SHOULD BE
THE WINDOW FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGN SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR. THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY TAF SITE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO CARRY TEMPO TSRA IS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL JUST MENTION A
VCTS AT OTHER AIR FIELDS. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
AND VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL WHERE LIFR FOG WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AGAIN FOR EARLY THU. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU
WARRANTS PROB30 TSRA FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SAT SHOULD BE
QUIET AND VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT NOON EDT...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE TERRAIN IS WORKING
OUT. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ISN`T SURPRISING
SINCE CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2000J. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED POPS PER CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
GRID FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST CONSHORT RUN.

AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLE ON SUNDAY WITHIN DEVELOPING LLVL RETURN FLOW
REGIME UNDERNEATH PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. L/WV TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND
A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A NOTABLY DRY AND
COOLER FCST IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TEH CLT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HENCE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH JUST A VCSH 20-23Z WHICH SHOULD BE
THE WINDOW FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNIGN SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR. THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON THU WARRANTS A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY TAF SITE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO CARRY TEMPO TSRA IS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL JUST MENTION A
VCTS AT OTHER AIR FIELDS. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
AND VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL WHERE LIFR FOG WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AGAIN FOR EARLY THU. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THU
WARRANTS PROB30 TSRA FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SAT SHOULD BE
QUIET AND VFR...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 231602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1202 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT NOON EDT...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE TERRAIN IS WORKING
OUT. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ISN`T SURPRISING
SINCE CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2000J. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED POPS PER CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
GRID FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST CONSHORT RUN.

AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   71%     LOW   50%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KGSP 231602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1202 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT NOON EDT...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE TERRAIN IS WORKING
OUT. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ISN`T SURPRISING
SINCE CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2000J. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED POPS PER CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
GRID FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST CONSHORT RUN.

AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   71%     LOW   50%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...SEE NO REASON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CAMS TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. BASED ON OUR CAMPOP AND TCU
DEVLOPING PER SAT PICS...I DID BUMP UP THE POPS IN THE NC CENTRAL
AND SW MOUNTAINS TO SOLID LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RISING RAPIDLY SO UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS.

AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231053
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231053
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231053
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 231053
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KAVL/KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...SW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT PIEDMONT COVERAGE OF LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER ACROSS THE MTNS...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO
18Z-21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OVER WET GROUND EAST.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 231024
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES...RANGING FROM M1/4SM AT KMRN TO 10SM ACROSS THE
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG/ANDERSON AREAS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALL
PREFERRED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THINKING. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL
WARM FORECAST HIGHS A CLICK. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   79%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230758
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD A LITTLE RISK /BUT NOT QUITE ZERO/ OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING SO WE HAVE
ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230758
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD A LITTLE RISK /BUT NOT QUITE ZERO/ OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING SO WE HAVE
ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 230723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE HRRR
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE LOWEST VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS
AND WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. IN ADDITION...EARLY MIXING SHOULD YIELD A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. GREATER INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNRISE TO MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO U80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF I-85.

RECENT W/V LOOP INDICATED THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIGGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TODAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS ONE
TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TO COVER THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT MORE OR LESS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
THUS...WITH THE TIMING A BIT MORE IN FOCUS...FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO
BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK
TOO MUCH ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
STORMS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO THE DAY2
OUTLOOK SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DROP SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BE MUCH COOLER...BUT
IT SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AS WELL WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER
THE EAST TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGETOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK THE ALREADY MEAGER POP A BIT MORE.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO...SATURDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT DRY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT MORE OF A RETURN TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE EARLIER FRONT...THIS ONE SHOULD USHER
IN A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...THEN MODIFIES AND
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230658
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 250 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FOG
MENTION WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND I-77 CORRDIOR...BASED ON HRRR AND
NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.

AS OF 1020 PM...ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAIN ACROSS VARIED PARTS OF THE
CWFA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SHUD END SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CURRENTLY MUCH LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN THE MDLS WERE SUGGESTING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...BUT ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING WITH
MOST CELLS GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL GIVEN SAT PIX...BUT STILL EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 230658
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 250 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FOG
MENTION WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND I-77 CORRDIOR...BASED ON HRRR AND
NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.

AS OF 1020 PM...ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAIN ACROSS VARIED PARTS OF THE
CWFA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SHUD END SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CURRENTLY MUCH LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN THE MDLS WERE SUGGESTING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...BUT ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING WITH
MOST CELLS GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL GIVEN SAT PIX...BUT STILL EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WAS AROUND ONE DEGREE. HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA TO LESS THAN 1
MB BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT COVERAGE
OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
DENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF FOG. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG
POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VFR CLOUD COVER. SCT
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ARE POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER
THINS THE MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER
THINS THE MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 230222
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAIN ACROSS VARIED PARTS OF THE
CWFA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SHUD END SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CURRENTLY MUCH LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN THE MDLS WERE SUGGESTING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...BUT ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING WITH
MOST CELLS GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL GIVEN SAT PIX...BUT STILL EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHRA WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE AIRFIELD...SO
WILL KEEP A SHORT VFR TEMPO WITH VRB WINDS. AFTER DISSIPATION...
EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH
BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6 MILES IN
FOG AND HAZE VICINITY KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN OT BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS LIKE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT MVFR CIGS AS IS WITH
IMPROVEMENT OT LOW VFR BY NOON. THAT SAID...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS WHICH COULD LEAD
TO MORE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...SO PROB30 ADVERTISED. NELY WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. SWLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS TO KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WHERE VCTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU EARLY EVENING. KAVL
ALSO HAS A BETTER CHC OF IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS AT KAVL
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WED MORN THEN SLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. PROB30 ADVERTISED ALL LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   74%     MED   64%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   73%     MED   62%     MED   79%
KHKY       MED   76%     MED   74%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     MED   68%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   70%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 222341
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING WITH
MOST CELLS GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL GIVEN SAT PIX...BUT STILL EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHRA WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE AIRFIELD...SO
WILL KEEP A SHORT VFR TEMPO WITH VRB WINDS. AFTER DISSIPATION...
EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH
BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6 MILES IN
FOG AND HAZE VICINITY KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN OT BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS LIKE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT MVFR CIGS AS IS WITH
IMPROVEMENT OT LOW VFR BY NOON. THAT SAID...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS WHICH COULD LEAD
TO MORE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...SO PROB30 ADVERTISED. NELY WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. SWLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS TO KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WHERE VCTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU EARLY EVENING. KAVL
ALSO HAS A BETTER CHC OF IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS AT KAVL
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WED MORN THEN SLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. PROB30 ADVERTISED ALL LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   66%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   57%     MED   68%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   67%     MED   74%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   57%     MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     MED   67%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 222341
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING WITH
MOST CELLS GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL GIVEN SAT PIX...BUT STILL EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHRA WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE AIRFIELD...SO
WILL KEEP A SHORT VFR TEMPO WITH VRB WINDS. AFTER DISSIPATION...
EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH
BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6 MILES IN
FOG AND HAZE VICINITY KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN OT BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS LIKE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT MVFR CIGS AS IS WITH
IMPROVEMENT OT LOW VFR BY NOON. THAT SAID...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS WHICH COULD LEAD
TO MORE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...SO PROB30 ADVERTISED. NELY WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. SWLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS TO KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WHERE VCTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU EARLY EVENING. KAVL
ALSO HAS A BETTER CHC OF IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS AT KAVL
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WED MORN THEN SLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. PROB30 ADVERTISED ALL LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   66%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   57%     MED   68%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   67%     MED   74%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   57%     MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     MED   67%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 222020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   66%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   63%     HIGH  87%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 222020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   66%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   63%     HIGH  87%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 222020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   66%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   63%     HIGH  87%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 222020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NE. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EARLY...THEN
ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
POP...MAINLY EARLY...FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED.

AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   66%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   63%     HIGH  87%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222012
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GA COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INLAND MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. MORNING CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSOLATION AND THUS DESTABILIZATION...SO WE HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH
ENERGY TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA SO EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
SC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
CENTER ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222012
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GA COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INLAND MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. MORNING CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSOLATION AND THUS DESTABILIZATION...SO WE HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH
ENERGY TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA SO EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
SC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
CENTER ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   63%     MED   63%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       MED   62%     MED   64%     MED   71%     MED   71%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   68%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     MED   63%     MED   70%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   77%     MED   66%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
IN A MOIST BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE AN OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR ENHANCEMENT AND BEST
COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN THE COL REGION OF THE
MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FIELD... SO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE... BUT MODELS
AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEFINITIVE IN INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS... THE POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIME AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO OUR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. AS TROUGH
HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST... THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DISAPPEAR. IN ITS PLACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE A LEE TROUGH RETURN TO THE PIEDMONT PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING
DIGGING TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT A
MAJOR CHANGE IN AIR MASS... SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT
OCCUR. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BETWEEN 85 AND 90 EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED ON SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN NC PIEDMONT ON THU
AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS IN
PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE IN NATURE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON WITH CAPES POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE
PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST
DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON THU AND THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   63%     MED   63%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       MED   62%     MED   64%     MED   71%     MED   71%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   68%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     MED   63%     MED   70%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   77%     MED   66%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221821
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JAQ/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221821
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JAQ/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 221751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL
REGION CROSSES THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW. 12Z NAM INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION.. FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS...
WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN
PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY
FOR BEST COVERAGE.

AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I
HAVE POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED INTO SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THU...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS IN PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE
IN NATURE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY
DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINSON THU AND THEN
ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     MED   65%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL
REGION CROSSES THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW. 12Z NAM INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION.. FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS...
WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN
PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY
FOR BEST COVERAGE.

AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I
HAVE POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED INTO SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THU...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS IN PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE
IN NATURE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY
DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINSON THU AND THEN
ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     MED   65%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL
REGION CROSSES THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW. 12Z NAM INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION.. FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS...
WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN
PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY
FOR BEST COVERAGE.

AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I
HAVE POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED INTO SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THU...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS IN PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE
IN NATURE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY
DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINSON THU AND THEN
ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     MED   65%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT IT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL
REGION CROSSES THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW. 12Z NAM INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION.. FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS...
WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN
PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY
FOR BEST COVERAGE.

AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I
HAVE POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SETTLED INTO SIMILAR TIMING
IN REGARD TO THE FRONT WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT TO JUST NW OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THU...AND THEN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PIEMDONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE OVER THE AREA WED EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RAMP POPS UPWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THU...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS IN PROFILES ARE DECIDELY DOWNSLOPE
IN NATURE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
POOLING TO 1500-2000J OVER THE PIEMDONT. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST DECREASING POPS THU NIGHT AND THEN A DRY
DAY ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO BOTH THU AND FRI IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT NEAR CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINSON THU AND THEN
ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE EASTERN U.S TROUGH BY MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEEKLY RIDGED OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL TURN STORMY. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ANY OF THE PARENT STORMS WILL MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OUTFLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO..AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NW ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN BELOW CLIMO ON TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AERODROME
AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING... HOWEVER THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER
HAS EVOLVED INTO A CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO MORE
STRATIFORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD WITH BASES 1-2K FT. OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG AND HAZE VICINITY
KCLT... BUT CONFIDENCE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEITHER THE NAM MOS OR NGM MOS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST GFS LAMP POINTS TOWARD MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FROM
09Z TO 12Z. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
UNRESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 4K FT.

ELSEWHERE... CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NO RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL EVOLVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES 1-2K FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTER 14Z VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED
AND SURFACE HEARING WILL PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 4K
FT.

OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     MED   65%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL






000
FXUS62 KCHS 221522
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1122 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL REGION CROSSES
THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW. 12Z NAM
INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION..
FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS... WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST
VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER... MOIST ATMOSPHERE  AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CEILING RESTRICTION IN LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN IMPROVING AT
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS. SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KCLT
IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY LAYER STEADILY WARMS AND
MIXING OCCURS. THE MOST RECENT LAMP FITS THIS IMPROVING
TREND... SO PLAN TO CONTINUE FORECAST OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH BASES 3-5K FT BY 19Z. VISIBILITY WILL BE
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED... BUT LOCAL CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. SURFACE WIND SHOULD
FAVOR A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEED OF LESS THAN 10 KT. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK... SO WIND CAN BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY AROUND 5 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME... SO NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF.

ELSEWHERE... BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AT ALL SITES WILL RESULT IN
LIFTING OF REMAINING LOW MORNING STRATUS THROUGH 16Z. BY 18Z...
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH BASES NEAR 3-4K FT.
VISIBILITY GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL/NED






000
FXUS62 KGSP 221445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD PER THE RECENT GUIDANCE. 500 MB CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE COL REGION CROSSES
THE CWA AND WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW. 12Z NAM
INDICATES A VERY SUBTLE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION..
FROM THE EAST FOLLOWING THE SHEAR AXIS... WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORTICITY ADVECTION PATTERN AND ONLY MODEST
VALUES OF CAPE SUGGEST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC. HOWEVER... MOIST ATMOSPHERE  AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WESTERN PORTION OF CWA NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CEILING RESTRICTION IN LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN IMPROVING AT
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS. SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KCLT
IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY LAYER STEADILY WARMS AND
MIXING OCCURS. THE MOST RECENT LAMP FITS THIS IMPROVING
TREND... SO PLAN TO CONTINUE FORECAST OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH BASES 3-5K FT BY 19Z. VISIBILITY WILL BE
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED... BUT LOCAL CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. SURFACE WIND SHOULD
FAVOR A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEED OF LESS THAN 10 KT. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK... SO WIND CAN BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY AROUND 5 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME... SO NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF.

ELSEWHERE... BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AT ALL SITES WILL RESULT IN
LIFTING OF REMAINING LOW MORNING STRATUS THROUGH 16Z. BY 18Z...
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH BASES NEAR 3-4K FT.
VISIBILITY GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LGL/NED







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW PATCHES OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS
INDICATE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER UNTIL 15Z. HOWEVER...MID
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 21Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING TSRA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 12Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
AVL TO IFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 1050Z...RECENT
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. -RA OVER
THE MIDLANDS SHOULD REACH THE I-85 TERMINALS AROUND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MID TO LATE
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID DAY. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 21Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING TSRA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   78%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     MED   66%     MED   66%
KHKY       MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     MED   66%     MED   66%
KHKY       MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     MED   66%     MED   66%
KHKY       MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO TWEAK POP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
POPULATED THE VIS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LAMP.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     MED   66%     MED   66%
KHKY       MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KCHS 220819
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYTIME THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER/NEAR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KCHS. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY IFR. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL OCCUR AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...THEN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
06Z/WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 220732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   63%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 220732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING COOLER AIR...BUT
IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL. DEEP MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...LIFTING PW UP TO 2
INCHES...OR 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...EAST H85
WINDS...AND LFC BETWEEN 3-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10M/S. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 80S EAST.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK WEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND ENDING LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...FALLING TO SCHC LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION OF SORTS WILL
BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL BRING THE FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE SW
TO W FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...WITH STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM A BIT SURPRISED WITH THE LACK OF COVERAGE IN THE
NAM SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THINK THAT THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...SO THE FCST STAYS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE SEEN ON THE GFS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/END GRADUALLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT E OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING THE CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
MTNS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER PUSH BY A SHORT WAVE HELPING
TO CARVE OUT A NEW EASTERN UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE
TIMING. THE NAM BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLIER AND DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
WHICH MAKES ME THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACTUALLY RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP PROBABILITY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE. ONCE THE
TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...EXPECT THIS TO CREEP BACK TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO
THE S THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONFIRMS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US A CLEANER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. WITH THIS TREND ESTABLISHED IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA PER THE MOSGUIDE...WITH A CHANCE ON THE SE FRINGE.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HOPEFULLY
THERE WILL BE ENUF DROP IN THE DEWPOINT TO MAKE THE RH FALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MCS-LIKE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS LOW. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT NEXT MONDAY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ON THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   63%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KGSP 220610
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...RECENT KGSP AND TCLT IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...EXPECTED BY 9Z. I WILL UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS AND TWEAK TEMPS TO AGREE TO OBS.

AS OF 1020 PM...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FROM AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
CWFA IN THE CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POP
AGAIN IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO
INCREASE TO SCT AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES ALL NITE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSRA...BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHED AND
THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SHRA ARE BACK ON
THE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SHRA TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MOST OF THE NITE. ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT
COVERAGE WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT BEST COVERAGE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TEMPS IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

AS OF 425 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ERN CWFA AND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE WHERE SFC BOUNDARY IS REACTIVATING
IN AN AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF TSRA WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP ELSEHWERE.
HAVE RETAINED THE EARLY EVENING LIKELY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH SCT POP ELSEWHERE. HAVE GREATLY
TRIMMED TEMPS OVER THE EAST WHERE RAIN WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT
KEPT TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE WEST WHERE RAIN IS MORE ISOLATED.

AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT HELPING TO MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SEPARATING CLOUDY AND MOIST AIR
MASS FROM AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRED
HELPED A NICE THERMAL AND STABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOP. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG PROMOTED THE
FORMATION OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPSTATE SC
EASTWARD TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE
SOME OF THE CAPE HAS BEEN CONSUMED BY CONVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN BOUNDARY A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMPONENT THIS
EVENING ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THUS... POPS
WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WAS MAXIMIZED BUT INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE
DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING TUESDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ONCE AGAIN IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES... BUT UNDETECTABLE MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD
RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT A SLOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE U.S. BETWEEN A WEAK
UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW AT 850 MB IS FCST TO VEER SUBSTANTIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE ANY ONGOING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD
END WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE DEMISE OF THE WEDGE LIKE PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL/CLIMO TREND IN THE PRECIP ON WED AS THE WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE SW-W THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON THU AND WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDELY WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE COLUNM ON THU WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS AND
CHANCE OTHER AREAS ON THU. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ON THU AS CAPES SHOULD EASILY POOL TO 1500-2000J AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO ON WED AND
NEAR CLIMO ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS AN EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. THE ECM IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT A CLEAN FROPA WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DRYER AIRMASS TO TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AT
THIS POINT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A CLEAN FROPA AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST FRONT REACHING THE SE U.S. HENCE...WILL INDICATE
LOWERING POPS FOR FRI. HOWEVER...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE SE ON SAT AS FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO THE NE.
THIS WARRANTS POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. CLIMO POPS SEEM WARRANTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S. AND
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT. ON MONDAY...AN APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DICTATES HIGHER POPS. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       LOW   51%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  86%     MED   79%
KHKY       MED   63%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED






000
FXUS62 KGSP 220610
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...RECENT KGSP AND TCLT IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...EXPECTED BY 9Z. I WILL UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS AND TWEAK TEMPS TO AGREE TO OBS.

AS OF 1020 PM...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FROM AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
CWFA IN THE CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POP
AGAIN IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO
INCREASE TO SCT AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES ALL NITE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSRA...BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHED AND
THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SHRA ARE BACK ON
THE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SHRA TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MOST OF THE NITE. ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT
COVERAGE WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT BEST COVERAGE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TEMPS IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

AS OF 425 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ERN CWFA AND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE WHERE SFC BOUNDARY IS REACTIVATING
IN AN AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF TSRA WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP ELSEHWERE.
HAVE RETAINED THE EARLY EVENING LIKELY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH SCT POP ELSEWHERE. HAVE GREATLY
TRIMMED TEMPS OVER THE EAST WHERE RAIN WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT
KEPT TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE WEST WHERE RAIN IS MORE ISOLATED.

AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT HELPING TO MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SEPARATING CLOUDY AND MOIST AIR
MASS FROM AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRED
HELPED A NICE THERMAL AND STABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOP. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG PROMOTED THE
FORMATION OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPSTATE SC
EASTWARD TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE
SOME OF THE CAPE HAS BEEN CONSUMED BY CONVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN BOUNDARY A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMPONENT THIS
EVENING ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THUS... POPS
WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WAS MAXIMIZED BUT INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE
DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING TUESDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ONCE AGAIN IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES... BUT UNDETECTABLE MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD
RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT A SLOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE U.S. BETWEEN A WEAK
UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW AT 850 MB IS FCST TO VEER SUBSTANTIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE ANY ONGOING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD
END WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE DEMISE OF THE WEDGE LIKE PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL/CLIMO TREND IN THE PRECIP ON WED AS THE WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE SW-W THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON THU AND WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDELY WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE COLUNM ON THU WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS AND
CHANCE OTHER AREAS ON THU. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ON THU AS CAPES SHOULD EASILY POOL TO 1500-2000J AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO ON WED AND
NEAR CLIMO ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS AN EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. THE ECM IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT A CLEAN FROPA WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DRYER AIRMASS TO TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AT
THIS POINT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A CLEAN FROPA AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST FRONT REACHING THE SE U.S. HENCE...WILL INDICATE
LOWERING POPS FOR FRI. HOWEVER...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE SE ON SAT AS FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO THE NE.
THIS WARRANTS POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. CLIMO POPS SEEM WARRANTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S. AND
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT. ON MONDAY...AN APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DICTATES HIGHER POPS. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. RECENT TCLT SCANS SHOW A PATCH OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS CABARRUS DRIFTING WEST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z TO 8Z. ONCE THE LOW
CEILING ARRIVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUD COVER. BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY 19Z. I WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 19Z-24Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

ELSEWHERE...THE INITIAL GROUP OF THE 6Z TAFS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT
HKY TO MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT 2 AM...RECENT
IMAGES INDICATE AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...WITH ANOTHER BAND LIFTING NW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE
DEVELOP OF THE -RA WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS...EXPECTED BY 9Z. ONCE THE LOW CEILING ARRIVE AND
DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON FAVORED GUIDANCE...VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID DAY. I WILL
MAINTAIN A PROB30 FROM 18Z-24Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING TSRA.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       LOW   51%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  86%     MED   79%
KHKY       MED   63%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220609
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220609
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK INLAND ON TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINKING UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY LATE. SLOW
MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY WHERE RAIN FELL MONDAY AND
CLOUD COVER BECOMES THIN...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
NEAR THE COAST OUTSIDE OF WHERE RAIN PRODUCES LOCALLY COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC STREAMS INTO THE AREA. THE
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LIFT THERE WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
MORNING COULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WANES...THEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
SC. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT AN 850 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION. WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS
WHILE A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE SETS UP. MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMING MID
LEVELS AND A GROWING CAP. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WE SHOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RETURN
TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A FRONT APPEARS TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYTIME THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER/NEAR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KCHS. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY IFR. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL OCCUR AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...THEN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
06Z/WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL POSITIONED WITHIN A BROAD COASTAL
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES UP MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS QUITE WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK/VARIABLE
WINDS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INLAND...WITH A
GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/LATE
NIGHT HOURS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING UPWARDS
OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS EACH NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK INLAND ON TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINKING UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY LATE. SLOW
MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY WHERE RAIN FELL MONDAY AND
CLOUD COVER BECOMES THIN...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
NEAR THE COAST OUTSIDE OF WHERE RAIN PRODUCES LOCALLY COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC STREAMS INTO THE AREA. THE
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LIFT THERE WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
MORNING COULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WANES...THEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
SC. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT AN 850 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION. WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS
WHILE A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE SETS UP. MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMING MID
LEVELS AND A GROWING CAP. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WE SHOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RETURN
TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A FRONT APPEARS TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYTIME THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER/NEAR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KCHS. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY IFR. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL OCCUR AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...THEN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
06Z/WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL POSITIONED WITHIN A BROAD COASTAL
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES UP MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS QUITE WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK/VARIABLE
WINDS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INLAND...WITH A
GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/LATE
NIGHT HOURS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING UPWARDS
OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS EACH NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 220226
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK INLAND ON TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINKING UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE OR FEATURES WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
LATE. SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS THINNEST...WHICH IS
MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST OUTSIDE OF WHERE RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC STREAMS INTO THE AREA. THE
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LIFT THERE WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
MORNING COULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WANES...THEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
SC. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT AN 850 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION. WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS
WHILE A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE SETS UP. MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMING MID
LEVELS AND A GROWING CAP. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WE SHOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RETURN
TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A FRONT APPEARS TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS NEAR KSAV TO START BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERM. BOTH SITES COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IN STRATUS IF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. THE CONVECTION NEAR KSAV
COULD WORK UP THE COAST TOWARD KCHS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL POSITIONED WITHIN A BROAD COASTAL
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES UP MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS QUITE WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK/VARIABLE
WINDS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INLAND...WITH A
GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/LATE
NIGHT HOURS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING UPWARDS
OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS EACH NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB







000
FXUS62 KGSP 220221
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FROM AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
CWFA IN THE CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POP
AGAIN IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO
INCREASE TO SCT AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES ALL NITE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSRA...BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHED AND
THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SHRA ARE BACK ON
THE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SHRA TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MOST OF THE NITE. ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT
COVERAGE WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT BEST COVERAGE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TEMPS IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

AS OF 425 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ERN CWFA AND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE WHERE SFC BOUNDARY IS REACTIVATING
IN AN AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF TSRA WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP ELSEHWERE.
HAVE RETAINED THE EARLY EVENING LIKELY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH SCT POP ELSEWHERE. HAVE GREATLY
TRIMMED TEMPS OVER THE EAST WHERE RAIN WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT
KEPT TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE WEST WHERE RAIN IS MORE ISOLATED.

AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT HELPING TO MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SEPARATING CLOUDY AND MOIST AIR
MASS FROM AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRED
HELPED A NICE THERMAL AND STABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOP. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG PROMOTED THE
FORMATION OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPSTATE SC
EASTWARD TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE
SOME OF THE CAPE HAS BEEN CONSUMED BY CONVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN BOUNDARY A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMPONENT THIS
EVENING ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THUS... POPS
WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WAS MAXIMIZED BUT INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE
DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING TUESDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ONCE AGAIN IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES... BUT UNDETECTABLE MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD
RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT A SLOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE U.S. BETWEEN A WEAK
UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW AT 850 MB IS FCST TO VEER SUBSTANTIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE ANY ONGOING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD
END WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE DEMISE OF THE WEDGE LIKE PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL/CLIMO TREND IN THE PRECIP ON WED AS THE WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE SW-W THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON THU AND WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDELY WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE COLUNM ON THU WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS AND
CHANCE OTHER AREAS ON THU. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ON THU AS CAPES SHOULD EASILY POOL TO 1500-2000J AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO ON WED AND
NEAR CLIMO ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS AN EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. THE ECM IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT A CLEAN FROPA WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DRYER AIRMASS TO TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AT
THIS POINT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A CLEAN FROPA AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST FRONT REACHING THE SE U.S. HENCE...WILL INDICATE
LOWERING POPS FOR FRI. HOWEVER...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE SE ON SAT AS FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO THE NE.
THIS WARRANTS POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. CLIMO POPS SEEM WARRANTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S. AND
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT. ON MONDAY...AN APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DICTATES HIGHER POPS. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING WITH IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LIFR
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY TUE. IN
FACT...THE BULK OF THE DAY COULD BE MVFR. INCLUDED A VCSH OVERNIGHT
AS SHRA WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BUT REMAIN SCT. PROB30 INCLUDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE NE TO ENE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT IFR FOG AND AND
CIGS AT KAVL. KAVL WILL ALSO SEE VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN A LIGHT SLY WIND DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 220221
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FROM AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
CWFA IN THE CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POP
AGAIN IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO
INCREASE TO SCT AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES ALL NITE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSRA...BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 740 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHED AND
THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SHRA ARE BACK ON
THE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SHRA TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MOST OF THE NITE. ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT
COVERAGE WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT BEST COVERAGE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TEMPS IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

AS OF 425 PM...CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ERN CWFA AND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE WHERE SFC BOUNDARY IS REACTIVATING
IN AN AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF TSRA WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP ELSEHWERE.
HAVE RETAINED THE EARLY EVENING LIKELY POP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH SCT POP ELSEWHERE. HAVE GREATLY
TRIMMED TEMPS OVER THE EAST WHERE RAIN WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT
KEPT TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE WEST WHERE RAIN IS MORE ISOLATED.

AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF LOW ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT HELPING TO MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SEPARATING CLOUDY AND MOIST AIR
MASS FROM AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRED
HELPED A NICE THERMAL AND STABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOP. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG PROMOTED THE
FORMATION OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPSTATE SC
EASTWARD TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE
SOME OF THE CAPE HAS BEEN CONSUMED BY CONVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN BOUNDARY A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMPONENT THIS
EVENING ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THUS... POPS
WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WAS MAXIMIZED BUT INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE
DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING TUESDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ONCE AGAIN IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES... BUT UNDETECTABLE MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD
RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT A SLOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE U.S. BETWEEN A WEAK
UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW AT 850 MB IS FCST TO VEER SUBSTANTIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE ANY ONGOING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD
END WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE DEMISE OF THE WEDGE LIKE PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL/CLIMO TREND IN THE PRECIP ON WED AS THE WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE SW-W THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON THU AND WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDELY WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE COLUNM ON THU WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS AND
CHANCE OTHER AREAS ON THU. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ON THU AS CAPES SHOULD EASILY POOL TO 1500-2000J AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO ON WED AND
NEAR CLIMO ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS AN EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. THE ECM IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
STALLS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING THAT A CLEAN FROPA WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DRYER AIRMASS TO TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AT
THIS POINT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A CLEAN FROPA AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST FRONT REACHING THE SE U.S. HENCE...WILL INDICATE
LOWERING POPS FOR FRI. HOWEVER...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE SE ON SAT AS FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO THE NE.
THIS WARRANTS POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. CLIMO POPS SEEM WARRANTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S. AND
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT. ON MONDAY...AN APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DICTATES HIGHER POPS. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... MVFR RETURNS THIS EVENING WITH IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LIFR
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY TUE. IN
FACT...THE BULK OF THE DAY COULD BE MVFR. INCLUDED A VCSH OVERNIGHT
AS SHRA WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BUT REMAIN SCT. PROB30 INCLUDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE NE TO ENE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT IFR FOG AND AND
CIGS AT KAVL. KAVL WILL ALSO SEE VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN A LIGHT SLY WIND DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS CLOSED OFF OVER ALABAMA WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
NEAR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GO WITH VCSH AND UPDATE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECTING QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SET UP DUE TO HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 220214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS CLOSED OFF OVER ALABAMA WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
NEAR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GO WITH VCSH AND UPDATE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECTING QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SET UP DUE TO HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 220214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS CLOSED OFF OVER ALABAMA WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
NEAR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GO WITH VCSH AND UPDATE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECTING QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SET UP DUE TO HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 220214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS AS IF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTREME
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE COUNTY AND CITY OF
ORANGEBURG...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS CLOSED OFF OVER ALABAMA WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
NEAR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GO WITH VCSH AND UPDATE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECTING QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SET UP DUE TO HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities