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000
FXUS62 KCHS 050233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD THE SC/GA COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. DESPITE STRONG UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY RAINFALL. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND AT LEAST 5-10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S /WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND THEN MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY...MID 70S FRIDAY THAN
AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WEAK
VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY MARGINAL. THUS...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUST 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z FRI. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER DAYBREAK AT
BOTH TERMS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A WEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT AND
SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...FORCING A SFC COLD
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROMOTE
MIXING LOW LVL WINDS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO
INCREASE/BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. IN GENERAL...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS OUTSIDE CHS HARBOR. GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS NEAR 20 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST EAST PORTIONS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY...LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS. MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE THE
ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP LOW CENTER OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE WATERS. COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HANG ON OVER
THE OFFSHORE/BEYOND 20 NM WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL
NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT METTER GEORGIA OPERATING ON
A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ WILL BE OFF THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.

THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...RFM/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RFM
EQUIPMENT...



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000
FXUS62 KGSP 050223
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...THE FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS
GOING NEARLY AS PREDICTED. SHOWERS BREAKING UP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE
LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT
STILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE UPSTATE. THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOULD ALSO
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AS THE FIRST LINE...BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE
OVER NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. CAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AS THE FIRST ROUND OF
COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO THIS
FEATURE AS THE CAM GUIDANCE HAS THE CURRENT FORECAST IN HAND.

OTHERWISE...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE SW
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NC MTNS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG 850 MB
CAA WITHIN 30-40 KT OF FLOW WILL BRING 850 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C.
THIS TRANSLATES TO SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 5000 FT OR SO
OVERNIGHT. SO A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE AT IT CROSSES THE MTNS...BUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ACRS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL...AND UP TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE NW...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POPCORN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN SPITE OF TEMPS
REMAINING ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY 40-50 MTNS AND MID-UPR
60S PIEDMONT). FCST SNDGS SHOW CAPE INTO THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. SO
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTNS.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL "BREAK CONTAINMENT" INTO THE PIEDMONT...
PER THE CAMS AND THE NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PINWHEEL AROUND UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW SPOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND CONDITIONS TO DRY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. THE CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...BUT MID CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS MOISTURE MOVES IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LEE TROF OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS WELL. THIS WILL TURN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES IN. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 TO COVER. NW WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BRIEFLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BECOME VERY GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HAVE VCSH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A PROB30
THURSDAY FOR THE CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FUNNELED UP THE VALLEY.
LOW VFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE ARE FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LINGER BRINGING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC
SITES. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042352
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD THE SC/GA COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. DESPITE STRONG UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY RAINFALL. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND AT LEAST 5-10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES /WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND THEN MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY...MID 70S FRIDAY THAN
AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WEAK
VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY MARGINAL. THUS...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUST 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z FRI. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER DAYBREAK AT
BOTH TERMS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A WEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10-15
KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...FORCING A SFC
COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
PROMOTE MIXING LOW LVL WINDS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO
INCREASE/BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. IN GENERAL...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR.
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS LATE.

THURSDAY...LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS. MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE THE
ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP LOW CENTER OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE WATERS. COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HANG ON OVER
THE OFFSHORE/BEYOND 20 NM WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL
NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...RFM/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RFM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042352
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD THE SC/GA COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. DESPITE STRONG UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY RAINFALL. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND AT LEAST 5-10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES /WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND THEN MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY...MID 70S FRIDAY THAN
AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WEAK
VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY MARGINAL. THUS...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUST 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z FRI. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER DAYBREAK AT
BOTH TERMS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A WEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10-15
KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...FORCING A SFC
COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
PROMOTE MIXING LOW LVL WINDS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO
INCREASE/BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. IN GENERAL...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR.
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS LATE.

THURSDAY...LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS. MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE THE
ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP LOW CENTER OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE WATERS. COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HANG ON OVER
THE OFFSHORE/BEYOND 20 NM WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL
NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...RFM/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RFM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
ARE DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND TO DEVELOP WITH THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE SW
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NC MTNS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG 850 MB
CAA WITHIN 30-40 KT OF FLOW WILL BRING 850 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C.
THIS TRANSLATES TO SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 5000 FT OR SO
OVERNIGHT. SO A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE AT IT CROSSES THE MTNS...BUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ACRS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL...AND UP TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE NW...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POPCORN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN SPITE OF TEMPS
REMAINING ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY 40-50 MTNS AND MID-UPR
60S PIEDMONT). FCST SNDGS SHOW CAPE INTO THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. SO
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTNS.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL "BREAK CONTAINMENT" INTO THE PIEDMONT...
PER THE CAMS AND THE NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PINWHEEL AROUND UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW SPOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND CONDITIONS TO DRY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. THE CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...BUT MID CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS MOISTURE MOVES IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LEE TROF OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS WELL. THIS WILL TURN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES IN. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 TO COVER. NW WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BRIEFLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BECOME VERY GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HAVE VCSH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A PROB30
THURSDAY FOR THE CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FUNNELED UP THE VALLEY.
LOW VFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE ARE FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LINGER BRINGING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC
SITES. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 042324
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AROUND 09Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED AT TIMES ALTHOUGH VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042324
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AROUND 09Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED AT TIMES ALTHOUGH VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042031
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THAN EXPECTED. THEREFORE...HAVE SLOWED
PRECIP ONSET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALLOW THEM TO
QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE SW
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NC MTNS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A LEADING SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS...ENTERING THE
NC MTNS IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 850
MB CAA WITHIN 30-40 KT OF FLOW WILL BRING 850 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
0C. THIS TRANSLATES TO SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 5000 FT OR SO
OVERNIGHT. SO A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE AT IT CROSSES THE MTNS...BUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ACRS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL...AND UP TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE NW...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POPCORN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN SPITE OF TEMPS
REMAINING ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY 40-50 MTNS AND MID-UPR
60S PIEDMONT). FCST SNDGS SHOW CAPE INTO THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. SO
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTNS.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL "BREAK CONTAINMENT" INTO THE
PIEDMONT...PER THE CAMS AND THE NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PINWHEEL AROUND UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW SPOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND CONDITIONS TO DRY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...WITH BASES IN THE 5-7 KFT
RANGE. A LEE TROF IS ALSO SETTING UP THANKS TO NWLY LLVL FLOW. SO
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW TO WSW DIRECTION FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE
EVENING. THEN THE FRONT WILL PASS THRU AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
PUSH INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FIZZLE OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE PIEDMONT.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY
GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH KAVL
FROM THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAY REACH THE TERMINAL...SO
WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH. LATER TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE NW FLOW...THEN LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE NC MTNS BY
18Z...AND ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A STRONG MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING FORCE A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. THUS...A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEST/NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5-10
MPH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND THEN MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY...MID 70S FRIDAY THAN
AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MID 50S SATURDAY
MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WEAK
VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY MARGINAL. THUS...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUST 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
ALONG WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A WEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10-15
KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...FORCING A SFC
COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
PROMOTE MIXING LOW LVL WINDS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO
INCREASE/BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. IN GENERAL...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR.
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS LATE.

THURSDAY...LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS. MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE THE
ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP LOW CENTER OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE WATERS. COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HANG ON OVER
THE OFFSHORE/BEYOND 20 NM WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL
NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041907
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
SW GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NC MTNS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A LEADING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS...ENTERING THE NC MTNS IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG 850 MB CAA WITHIN 30-40 KT OF FLOW WILL BRING 850
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. THIS TRANSLATES TO SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO
AROUND 5000 FT OR SO OVERNIGHT. SO A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE AT IT CROSSES THE
MTNS...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT
ACRS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW NORMAL...AND UP TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE NW...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POPCORN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN SPITE OF TEMPS
REMAINING ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY 40-50 MTNS AND MID-UPR
60S PIEDMONT). FCST SNDGS SHOW CAPE INTO THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. SO
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTNS.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL "BREAK CONTAINMENT" INTO THE
PIEDMONT...PER THE CAMS AND THE NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PINWHEEL AROUND UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW SPOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND CONDITIONS TO DRY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...WITH BASES IN THE 5-7 KFT
RANGE. A LEE TROF IS ALSO SETTING UP THANKS TO NWLY LLVL FLOW. SO
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW TO WSW DIRECTION FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE
EVENING. THEN THE FRONT WILL PASS THRU AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
PUSH INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FIZZLE OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE PIEDMONT.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY
GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH KAVL
FROM THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAY REACH THE TERMINAL...SO
WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH. LATER TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE NW FLOW...THEN LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE NC MTNS BY
18Z...AND ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041817
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041817
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...A POTENT VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE IL/IN TODAY...THEN THE LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NC MTNS AROUND 00Z. THE LOW
WILL HAVE COLD MID LVL TEMPS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE CAMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT
LINE ENTERING THE NC MTNS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
USUAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING HIGH-BASED CU ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM HAS A POCKET
OF 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE
CWFA...WHERE DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. I THINK DRY AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN FROM THE NW...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST OUTSIDE THE
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. I WILL FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTN RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A
ROTATING LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD
FALL AS A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...WITH BASES IN THE 5-7 KFT
RANGE. A LEE TROF IS ALSO SETTING UP THANKS TO NWLY LLVL FLOW. SO
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW TO WSW DIRECTION FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE
EVENING. THEN THE FRONT WILL PASS THRU AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
PUSH INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FIZZLE OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE PIEDMONT.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY
GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH KAVL
FROM THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAY REACH THE TERMINAL...SO
WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH. LATER TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE NW FLOW...THEN LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE NC MTNS BY
18Z...AND ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN A COOL AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...A POTENT VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE IL/IN TODAY...THEN THE LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NC MTNS AROUND 00Z. THE LOW
WILL HAVE COLD MID LVL TEMPS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE CAMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT
LINE ENTERING THE NC MTNS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
USUAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING HIGH-BASED CU ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM HAS A POCKET
OF 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE
CWFA...WHERE DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. I THINK DRY AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN FROM THE NW...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST OUTSIDE THE
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. I WILL FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTN RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A
ROTATING LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD
FALL AS A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AN ERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH SUN AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY SUN. WITH A SFC HIGH CENTER
SITUATED OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF GOM MOISTURE AND HIGH THETA/E AIR. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
SUN...SCT AFTERNOON -SHRA/TSTMS SHUD DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS AREN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AVAILABLE
CAPE...BUT A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS AND HIGH TD/S. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES NORTH AND A
LOW AMPLITUDE ULVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THRU TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE NC MTNS WHERE POCKETS OF ULVL
ENERGY HELP INSTIGATE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE AND THE CWFA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THE HIGHER UNSTABLE AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WED/THU...BUT GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
KEEP POPS JUSTIFIED IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE THE WRN
ZONES....WITH MAINLY ISOL CONVEC ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED EAST. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS BEGINNING A COUPLE CATS
ABOVE NORMAL SUN THEN A SUBTLE DECREASE OF ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BY WED.
MINS WILL LINGER A LITTLE BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SE FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...WITH BASES IN THE 5-7 KFT
RANGE. A LEE TROF IS ALSO SETTING UP THANKS TO NWLY LLVL FLOW. SO
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW TO WSW DIRECTION FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE
EVENING. THEN THE FRONT WILL PASS THRU AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
PUSH INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FIZZLE OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE PIEDMONT.

AT KAVL...WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THRU
THE PERIOD...YIELDING NNW WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY
GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH KAVL
FROM THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAY REACH THE TERMINAL...SO
WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH. LATER TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE NW FLOW...THEN LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE NC MTNS BY
18Z...AND ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN. DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LVLS WILL HELP PRODUCE A
FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
DRY WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE. IN GENERAL...HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION...OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM.
ANOTHER COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LVLS WILL HELP PRODUCE A
FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
DRY WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE. IN GENERAL...HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION...OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM.
ANOTHER COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALREADY OVERTAKING THE REGION.
WITH THE DRIER AIR CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AND EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SKIES TEMPORARILY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN TONIGHT
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALREADY OVERTAKING THE REGION.
WITH THE DRIER AIR CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AND EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SKIES TEMPORARILY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN TONIGHT
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041420
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...A POTENT VORT MAX WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE IL/IN TODAY...THEN THE LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NC MTNS AROUND 00Z. THE LOW
WILL HAVE COLD MID LVL TEMPS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE CAMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT
LINE ENTERING THE NC MTNS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
USUAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING HIGH-BASED CU ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM HAS A POCKET
OF 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE
CWFA...WHERE DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. I THINK DRY AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN FROM THE NW...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST OUTSIDE THE
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. I WILL FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTN RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A
ROTATING LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD
FALL AS A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL
LIKELY VEER BACK FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT FROPA.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z...RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE
LATE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
956 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL ALSO
HELP ERODE CLOUDS AS THEY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A FULL SUN OVER MOST AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. IN GENERAL...HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION...OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM.
ANOTHER COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FDR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
GENERAL...WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
700 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN SMALL POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING. REMNANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE COAST BEFORE NOON. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRY...BRINGING JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER
50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION...OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM.
ANOTHER COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE MORNING TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 645 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR THE TN/NC LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY COME AND GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPS...WINDS...AND POPS.

AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD FALL AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL
LIKELY VEER BACK FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT FROPA.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z...RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE
LATE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 645 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR THE TN/NC LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY COME AND GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPS...WINDS...AND POPS.

AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD FALL AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL
LIKELY VEER BACK FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT FROPA.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z...RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE
LATE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS
COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA COULD BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE COUNTERED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MOS
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH INCREASING
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN COUPLED FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS
COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA COULD BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE COUNTERED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MOS
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH INCREASING
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN COUPLED FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040825
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KOGB THROUGH ABOUT
09-10Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER TERMINALS
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE
AUGUSTA AREA TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
THE EAST COAST. LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOME
REMNANT INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE ALSO
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

TODAY...A TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY. REMNANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY BUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE COAST BEFORE NOON. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRY...BRINGING JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER
50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM. ANOTHER
COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TAFS...THERE IS THE RISK FOR A BRIEF -SHRA OR -TSRA...MAINLY
BEFORE 09Z. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH VC WORDING SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY. THIS
RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
THE EAST COAST. LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SOME
REMNANT INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE ALSO
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

TODAY...A TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY. REMNANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY BUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE COAST BEFORE NOON. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRY...BRINGING JUST SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER
50S...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...A DEEP AND DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN IMPRESSIVE -25C 500 MB COLD POOL
REACHING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY LATE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY SMALL REGIONS OF CAPE BETWEEN 6 KFT AND 10 KFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED GRAUPEL/HAIL PCPN NW ZONES APPEARS QUITE
SLIM AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT THERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOWER 70S...FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHALLOW DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN THE NORM. ANOTHER
COOLER THAN CLIMO DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE LOOK OF
MUCH WARMER DAYS AS WEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP. WE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN HEADED TOWARD MID WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TAFS...THERE IS THE RISK FOR A BRIEF -SHRA OR -TSRA...MAINLY
BEFORE 09Z. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH VC WORDING SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY. THIS
RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PASSING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT 10-15 KT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO WIND
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3-5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURGES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SURGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM GRAYS REEF
SEAWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS THE VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A S TO SW SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040733
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
333 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040733
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
333 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. NW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS
TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. NW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS
TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A
SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040425
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1225 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A
SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE WORST STORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND ARE MOVING FURTHER AWAY
FROM BOTH LAND AND OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHES OUR AREA. POPS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REMNANT SHOWERS DECREASE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHING OUR
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NW TIER AND MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER -SHRA OR -TSRA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE WORST STORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND ARE MOVING FURTHER AWAY
FROM BOTH LAND AND OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHES OUR AREA. POPS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REMNANT SHOWERS DECREASE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHING OUR
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NW TIER AND MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER -SHRA OR -TSRA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE WORST STORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND ARE MOVING FURTHER AWAY
FROM BOTH LAND AND OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHES OUR AREA. POPS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REMNANT SHOWERS DECREASE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHING OUR
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NW TIER AND MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER -SHRA OR -TSRA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE WORST STORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND ARE MOVING FURTHER AWAY
FROM BOTH LAND AND OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHES OUR AREA. POPS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REMNANT SHOWERS DECREASE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHING OUR
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NW TIER AND MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER -SHRA OR -TSRA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY DROP AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATCH
EXPIRED AT 900 PM.

COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATCH
EXPIRED AT 900 PM.

COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040224
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS EXTENDED FOR BERKELEY...CHARELESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A STRONG LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THESE COUNTIES AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THESE AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS
FROM THIS LINE ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DESPITE THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHT DECREASES IN INSTABILITY...THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITSELF AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOO
MUCH BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS LINE OF STORMS
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A
STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR
APPROACHING OUR AREA. POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM REMNANT SHOWERS. THESE WILL DECREASE AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE
LOWER 60S NW TIER...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
KSAV. WE ARE SHOWING A 2 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW AT KCHS WITH A BOUT
IFR CEILINGS IN +TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040224
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS EXTENDED FOR BERKELEY...CHARELESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A STRONG LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THESE COUNTIES AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THESE AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS
FROM THIS LINE ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DESPITE THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHT DECREASES IN INSTABILITY...THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITSELF AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOO
MUCH BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS LINE OF STORMS
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A
STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR
APPROACHING OUR AREA. POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM REMNANT SHOWERS. THESE WILL DECREASE AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...THE
LOWER 60S NW TIER...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
KSAV. WE ARE SHOWING A 2 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW AT KCHS WITH A BOUT
IFR CEILINGS IN +TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040221
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM. A STRONG LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR AREA AT APPROXIMATELY 920 PM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT A
PRETTY GOOD PACE. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS FROM THIS LINE ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CURRENT RAP IS
STILL INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH
DCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS. THOUGH...THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL
DEFINITELY STAY SEVERE THE ENTIRE TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DECREASE AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING OUR AREA.
THOUGH...STRONG STORMS MAY MAINTAIN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT,

POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM REMNANT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL DECREASE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN
FAR ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
THE COOL ADVECTION NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER
WILL BE COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
KSAV. WE ARE SHOWING A 2 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW AT KCHS WITH A BOUT
MVFR CEILINGS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM. A STRONG LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR AREA AT APPROXIMATELY 920 PM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT A
PRETTY GOOD PACE. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS FROM THIS LINE ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CURRENT RAP IS
STILL INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH
DCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE FOR
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS. THOUGH...THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL
DEFINITELY STAY SEVERE THE ENTIRE TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DECREASE AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE AND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING OUR AREA.
THOUGH...STRONG STORMS MAY MAINTAIN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT,

POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM REMNANT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL DECREASE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN
FAR ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
THE COOL ADVECTION NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER
WILL BE COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
KSAV. WE ARE SHOWING A 2 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW AT KCHS WITH A BOUT
MVFR CEILINGS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 032356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 032348
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL WAIT TO DROP THE WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT OF
STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 032348
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL WAIT TO DROP THE WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT OF
STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM. THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING FROM DCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG AND ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS
ABLE TO BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS ALSO A RISK
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS
MAINLY IN A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING
FLOW AND COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHING THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL
ADVECTION NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE STRONGER STORMS APPEAR MORE
IN LINE TO MOVE THROUGH KSAV THAN AT KCHS. WE ARE SHOWING A 3 HOUR
TEMPO WINDOW AT KSAV OF MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BOUT OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IN +TSRA FROM
00-03Z. AT KCHS WE ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE INDICATING MARGINAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM.
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPES THAT AREA
NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AND ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS MAINLY IN
A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AND
COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHI9NG THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT/S THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL ADVECTION
NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE STRONGER STORMS APPEAR MORE
IN LINE TO MOVE THROUGH KSAV THAN AT KCHS. WE ARE SHOWING A 3 HOUR
TEMPO WINDOW AT KSAV OF MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BOUT OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IN +TSRA FROM
00-03Z. AT KCHS WE ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE INDICATING MARGINAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM.
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPES THAT AREA
NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AND ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS MAINLY IN
A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AND
COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHI9NG THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT/S THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL ADVECTION
NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE STRONGER STORMS APPEAR MORE
IN LINE TO MOVE THROUGH KSAV THAN AT KCHS. WE ARE SHOWING A 3 HOUR
TEMPO WINDOW AT KSAV OF MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BOUT OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IN +TSRA FROM
00-03Z. AT KCHS WE ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE INDICATING MARGINAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -TSRA FROM 02-04Z.

THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ANOTHER SHRA OR TSRA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-18 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
531 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE NEAR TERM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SHOWING
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...BUT NOW WE/RE ALSO
STARTING TO EXPERIENCE SOME SHEAR...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER WHICH IS OVER 30 KT. BUT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS STILL LESS THAN
15 KT AND THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVING MIXED OUT SOME
OF THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AND THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST...THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF NON-SEVERE STORMS SO FAR.

TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN DELAYED...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9-10 PM. MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPES THAT AREA NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AND
ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO
BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS MAINLY IN
A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AND
COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHI9NG THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT/S THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL ADVECTION
NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS IN THE
18Z TAFS...ANY TSRA INTO THIS EVENING CAN PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS AND THUS THE RISK FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA OR MAYBE A TSRA AT
BOTH AIRFIELDS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-17 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
531 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE NEAR TERM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SHOWING
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...BUT NOW WE/RE ALSO
STARTING TO EXPERIENCE SOME SHEAR...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER WHICH IS OVER 30 KT. BUT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS STILL LESS THAN
15 KT AND THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVING MIXED OUT SOME
OF THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AND THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST...THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF NON-SEVERE STORMS SO FAR.

TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN DELAYED...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9-10 PM. MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPES THAT AREA NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AND
ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO
BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS MAINLY IN
A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AND
COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHI9NG THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT/S THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL ADVECTION
NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS IN THE
18Z TAFS...ANY TSRA INTO THIS EVENING CAN PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS AND THUS THE RISK FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA OR MAYBE A TSRA AT
BOTH AIRFIELDS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-17 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 032038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS FORMING BACK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AS WELL. LATEST MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA...
SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND ISOLATED AT BEST
ELSEWHERE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED POP TO SHOW
THESE TRENDS. WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG STORMS.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRFIELD WILL MOVE EAST BY 21Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE SUNSET...BUT CHANCE
IS LOW. OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE
TSRA...WITH LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK/RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE NEAR TERM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SHOWING
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...BUT NOW WE/RE ALSO
STARTING TO EXPERIENCE SOME SHEAR...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER WHICH IS OVER 30 KT. BUT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS STILL LESS THAN
15 KT AND THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVING MIXED OUT SOME
OF THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AND THE SEA
BREEZE...THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
NON-SEVERE STORMS SO FAR.

CONVECTION FROM UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WILL START TO ORGANIZE A
LITTLE MORE INTO A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE/QLCS OR MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTERS AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE OH/MS VALLEYS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUT NW TIER.
ADDITIONALLY CONVECTION FORMING TO THE SOUTH FROM HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE FROM THE GULF WILL ALSO APPROACH...PUTTING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AT RISK FROM ABOUT 5-8 PM. THIS INCLUDES SAVANNAH AND
BEAUFORT...WHILE THE CHARLESTON METRO WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST
THREAT FROM 6-9 PM.

TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN DELAYED...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9-10 PM. MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPES THAT AREA NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AND
ALSO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION OF 500-600 J/KG. IF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO
BACK WINDS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SC COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS MAINLY IN
A WEST-EAST ALIGNMENT IS IN TANDEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AND
COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. IF BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS THAN THERE IS A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NW AND NOT
REACHI9NG THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WE HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
DIVERGENT PATTERN OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH/NW WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY DIFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND WE/RE WAITING FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR ABOUT THE PAST WEEK OUR NIGHT TIME LOWS HAVE BEEN FAR ABOVE
NORMAL AND THAT/S THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE COOL ADVECTION
NOT MAKING IT IN UNTIL LATE. LOWER 60S NW TIER WILL BE
COMMON...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING AND
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
OUT THE COLUMN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND EARLY MAY
NORMALS. LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. GIVEN THE FORCING
IN PLACE...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SO NO SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS SO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 MPH.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LINGERING COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND 50 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT DAYBREAK. THESE FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER OR NEAR KCHS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR CEILINGS WITH VCTS.

AT KSAV THE CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE GREATER FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT
THE TERMINAL FROM 21Z TO 02Z WEDNESDAY...AND THUS WE ARE SHOWING
MVFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY DOWN BRIEFLY TO IFR/ IN TSRA.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS IN THE 18Z TAFS...ANY
TSRA INTO THIS EVENING CAN PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
/THUS THE RISK FOR IFR/.

THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA OR MAYBE A TSRA AT
BOTH AIRFIELDS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECENT PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SE OF
THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TAPER THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING AND ONCE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS WILL ALSO MESS
UP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WE HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT
15-17 KT. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 OR PERHAPS 50 KT...LARGE HAIL..FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. STAY IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS
APPROACH. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...STARTING IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS THEN EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS AS WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ON AVERAGE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND 1-3 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031911
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY...LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. COORDINATION WITH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS RESULTED IN ISSUING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 VALID THROUGH 9PM. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM...WITH COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 9 PM THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN GENERALLY DISCRETE WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...AS LLVL SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...MP
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031809
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WJM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031809
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WJM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031727
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NW TIER
THROUGH 2 PM AND THEN STARTING TO FILL IN ELSEWHERE THEREAFTER.
LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR AND MLCAPES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. THIS HAS PREVENTED STORMS FROM
GETTING TOO TALL SO FAR. AND SHEAR IS NOT YET THAT SIGNIFICANT
THUS NO ORGANIZED STORMS SO FAR.

BUT THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO CHANGE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE WILD
CARD IS THE SHEAR WHICH WAS LACKING THE PAST TWO DAYS WHICH IS
EVIDENT TODAY. THIS COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR A SQUALL LINE/QLCS/LEWP FEATURE.
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 25-35 KT...ALTHOUGH IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM IS IS ONLY 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST PATTERN.

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THE FORECAST ZONES ARE WITHIN A REGION OF
MAINLY NVA ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLING ACROSS
EASTERN NC. UPSTREAM SHORT IN THE MID MS VALLEY IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK AND IS A NON-FACTOR AT THE MOMENT
FOR TODAY/S PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS. BUT SINCE DCAPES ARE 600-700 J/KG THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN ISOLATED STORMS...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW AT FT. SUMTER JUST PRIOR TO NOONTIME.

FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS WHEN THE
SITUATION IS PRIMED TO GET MUCH MORE ACTIVE. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ALOFT...THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
NECESSARY DIFLUENCE UPSTAIRS WITH A DIVERGING PATTERN TO THE POLAR
JET AND SUB TROPICAL JET STREAMS TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH...RESPECTIVELY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TO THE NW THIS MORNING
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE AND PEE DEE REGION OF SC
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OF GA BY NIGHTFALL. STORMS
WILL FORM IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK PRE-EXISTING
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH/SW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTH/SW GEORGIA ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
REGIONS WILL CONVERGE ON THE CWFA FROM ABOUT 2-8 PM...ASSUMING
MESOSCALE PROCESSES PAN OUT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WE
ARE MAINTAINING 50-70 POPS...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 OR -7C AND SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
PLUS THERE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR WHICH IS THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE THAT WE SEE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 800 OR 900 J/KG AND WINDEX VALUES FROM RAOB
ARE 55-65...BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL CAPES OF 800
J/KG OR GREATER AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 9K FT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE
FOR LARGE HAIL. IF WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ARE ABLE TO
BACK ENOUGH SOUTH WITH A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE THERE WOULD ALSO BE
A VERY LOW END RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE MEAN FLOW IS MORE WEST TO EAST
WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS IS MORE SW TO NE WHICH WILL AID IS
LIMITING BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING. STILL...ANY DEVIATION OF
THESE TRAJECTORIES MORE IN SYNC WITH EACH OTHER COULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER FLOODING RAIN THREAT.

THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THAT
ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. THIS SAME WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO
HELP MIX OUT DEW POINTS...AND DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OF THIS
OCCURS WILL BE FACTOR IN INSTABILITY. FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
THEM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 60S. WE HAVE ALSO ALTERED
THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION ONCE
CONVECTION INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER OR NEAR KCHS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR CEILINGS WITH VCTS.

AT KSAV THE CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE GREATER FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT
THE TERMINAL FROM 21Z TO 02Z WEDNESDAY...AND THUS WE ARE SHOWING
MVFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY DOWN BRIEFLY TO IFR/ IN TSRA.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS IN THE 18Z TAFS...ANY
TSRA INTO THIS EVENING CAN PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
/THUS THE RISK FOR IFR/.

THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA OR MAYBE A TSRA AT
BOTH AIRFIELDS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING
LEGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TIME TO TIME AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND/OR MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS COULD BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031647
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1247 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NW TIER
THROUGH 2 PM AND THEN STARTING TO FILL IN ELSEWHERE THEREAFTER.
LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR AND MLCAPES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. THIS HAS PREVENTED STORMS FROM
GETTING TOO TALL SO FAR. AND SHEAR IS NOT YET THAT SIGNIFICANT
THUS NO ORGANIZED STORMS SO FAR.

BUT THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO CHANGE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE WILD
CARD IS THE SHEAR WHICH WAS LACKING THE PAST TWO DAYS WHICH IS
EVIDENT TODAY. THIS COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR A SQUALL LINE/QLCS/LEWP FEATURE.
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 25-35 KT...ALTHOUGH IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM IS IS ONLY 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST PATTERN.

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THE FORECAST ZONES ARE WITHIN A REGION OF
MAINLY NVA ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLING ACROSS
EASTERN NC. UPSTREAM SHORT IN THE MID MS VALLEY IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK AND IS A NON-FACTOR AT THE MOMENT
FOR TODAY/S PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS. BUT SINCE DCAPES ARE 600-700 J/KG THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN ISOLATED STORMS...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW AT FT. SUMTER JUST PRIOR TO NOONTIME.

FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS WHEN THE
SITUATION IS PRIMED TO GET MUCH MORE ACTIVE. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ALOFT...THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
NECESSARY DIFLUENCE UPSTAIRS WITH A DIVERGING PATTERN TO THE POLAR
JET AND SUB TROPICAL JET STREAMS TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH...RESPECTIVELY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TO THE NW THIS MORNING
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE AND PEE DEE REGION OF SC
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OF GA BY NIGHTFALL. STORMS
WILL FORM IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK PRE-EXISTING
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH/SW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTH/SW GEORGIA ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
REGIONS WILL CONVERGE ON THE CWFA FROM ABOUT 2-8 PM...ASSUMING
MESOSCALE PROCESSES PAN OUT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WE
ARE MAINTAINING 50-70 POPS...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 OR -7C AND SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
PLUS THERE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR WHICH IS THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE THAT WE SEE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 800 OR 900 J/KG AND WINDEX VALUES FROM RAOB
ARE 55-65...BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL CAPES OF 800
J/KG OR GREATER AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 9K FT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE
FOR LARGE HAIL. IF WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ARE ABLE TO
BACK ENOUGH SOUTH WITH A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE THERE WOULD ALSO BE
A VERY LOW END RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE MEAN FLOW IS MORE WEST TO EAST
WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS IS MORE SW TO NE WHICH WILL AID IS
LIMITING BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING. STILL...ANY DEVIATION OF
THESE TRAJECTORIES MORE IN SYNC WITH EACH OTHER COULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER FLOODING RAIN THREAT.

THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THAT
ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. THIS SAME WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO
HELP MIX OUT DEW POINTS...AND DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OF THIS
OCCURS WILL BE FACTOR IN INSTABILITY. FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
THEM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 60S. WE HAVE ALSO ALTERED
THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION ONCE
CONVECTION INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TSTMS WILL IMPACT KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ROUGHLY 21-00Z...SO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MID-RANGE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER. LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR...ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. AT
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING
LEGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TIME TO TIME AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND/OR MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS COULD BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031647
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1247 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NW TIER
THROUGH 2 PM AND THEN STARTING TO FILL IN ELSEWHERE THEREAFTER.
LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR AND MLCAPES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. THIS HAS PREVENTED STORMS FROM
GETTING TOO TALL SO FAR. AND SHEAR IS NOT YET THAT SIGNIFICANT
THUS NO ORGANIZED STORMS SO FAR.

BUT THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO CHANGE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE WILD
CARD IS THE SHEAR WHICH WAS LACKING THE PAST TWO DAYS WHICH IS
EVIDENT TODAY. THIS COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR A SQUALL LINE/QLCS/LEWP FEATURE.
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 25-35 KT...ALTHOUGH IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM IS IS ONLY 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST PATTERN.

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THE FORECAST ZONES ARE WITHIN A REGION OF
MAINLY NVA ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLING ACROSS
EASTERN NC. UPSTREAM SHORT IN THE MID MS VALLEY IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK AND IS A NON-FACTOR AT THE MOMENT
FOR TODAY/S PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS. BUT SINCE DCAPES ARE 600-700 J/KG THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN ISOLATED STORMS...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW AT FT. SUMTER JUST PRIOR TO NOONTIME.

FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS WHEN THE
SITUATION IS PRIMED TO GET MUCH MORE ACTIVE. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ALOFT...THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
NECESSARY DIFLUENCE UPSTAIRS WITH A DIVERGING PATTERN TO THE POLAR
JET AND SUB TROPICAL JET STREAMS TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH...RESPECTIVELY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TO THE NW THIS MORNING
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE AND PEE DEE REGION OF SC
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OF GA BY NIGHTFALL. STORMS
WILL FORM IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK PRE-EXISTING
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH/SW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTH/SW GEORGIA ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
REGIONS WILL CONVERGE ON THE CWFA FROM ABOUT 2-8 PM...ASSUMING
MESOSCALE PROCESSES PAN OUT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WE
ARE MAINTAINING 50-70 POPS...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 OR -7C AND SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
PLUS THERE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR WHICH IS THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE THAT WE SEE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 800 OR 900 J/KG AND WINDEX VALUES FROM RAOB
ARE 55-65...BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL CAPES OF 800
J/KG OR GREATER AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 9K FT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE
FOR LARGE HAIL. IF WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ARE ABLE TO
BACK ENOUGH SOUTH WITH A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE THERE WOULD ALSO BE
A VERY LOW END RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE MEAN FLOW IS MORE WEST TO EAST
WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS IS MORE SW TO NE WHICH WILL AID IS
LIMITING BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING. STILL...ANY DEVIATION OF
THESE TRAJECTORIES MORE IN SYNC WITH EACH OTHER COULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER FLOODING RAIN THREAT.

THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THAT
ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. THIS SAME WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO
HELP MIX OUT DEW POINTS...AND DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OF THIS
OCCURS WILL BE FACTOR IN INSTABILITY. FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
THEM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 60S. WE HAVE ALSO ALTERED
THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION ONCE
CONVECTION INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TSTMS WILL IMPACT KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ROUGHLY 21-00Z...SO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MID-RANGE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER. LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR...ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. AT
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING
LEGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TIME TO TIME AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND/OR MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS COULD BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 13Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN TIME FOR THUNDER WILL BE 20Z TO 04/04Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 13Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN TIME FOR THUNDER WILL BE 20Z TO 04/04Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031425
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1025 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IS
EXPECTED...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE WILD CARD IS THE
SHEAR WHICH WAS LACKING THE PAST TWO DAYS WHICH IS EVIDENT TODAY.
THIS COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR A SQUALL LINE/QLCS/LEWP FEATURE.
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 25-35 KT...ALTHOUGH IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM IS IS ONLY 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST PATTERN.

FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE FORECAST ZONES ARE WITHIN
A REGION OF MAINLY NVA ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
PULLING ACROSS EASTERN NC. UPSTREAM SHORT IN THE MID MS VALLEY IS
PROBABLY NOT GOING TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK AND IS A NON-FACTOR
AT THE MOMENT FOR TODAY/S PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM ON DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S THAT ARE
EASILY REACHED. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY
MODEST THERMODYNAMICS. SINCE DCAPES ARE 600-800 J/KG THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN ISOLATED STORMS.

FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS WHEN THE
SITUATION IS PRIMED TO GET MUCH MORE ACTIVE. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ALOFT...THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
NECESSARY DIFLUENCE UPSTAIRS WITH A DIVERGING PATTERN TO THE POLAR
JET AND SUB TROPICAL JET STREAMS TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH...RESPECTIVELY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TO THE NW THIS MORNING
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE AND PEE DEE REGION OF SC
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OF GA BY NIGHTFALL. STORMS
WILL FORM IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK PRE-EXISTING
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH/SW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTH/SW GEORGIA ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
REGIONS WILL CONVERGE ON THE CWFA...LIKELY REACHING INTO SE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC BY 3-4 PM...AND INTO THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION BY 5-8 PM...ASSUMING MESOSCALE PROCESSES PAN
OUT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WE HAVE DONE LITTLE TO THE
HIGHEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENTILE...HIGHEST SOUTH
AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 OR -7C AND SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
PLUS THERE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR WHICH IS THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE THAT WE SEE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 800 OR 900 J/KG AND WINDEX VALUES FROM RAOB
ARE 55-65...BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL CAPES OF 800
J/KG OR GREATER AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 9K FT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE
FOR LARGE HAIL. IF WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ARE ABLE TO
BACK ENOUGH SOUTH WITH A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE THERE WOULD ALSO BE
A VERY LOW END RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS MORE STORM MOTION THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE MEAN FLOW IS MORE WEST TO EAST
WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS IS MORE SW TO NE WHICH WILL AID IS
LIMITING BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING. STILL...ANY DEVIATION OF
THESE TRAJECTORIES MORE IN SYNC WITH EACH OTHER COULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER FLOODING RAIN THREAT.

THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THAT
ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. THIS SAME WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO
HELP MIX OUT DEW POINTS...AND DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OF THIS
OCCURS WILL BE FACTOR IN INSTABILITY. FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
THEM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 60S. WE HAVE ALSO ALTERED
THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION ONCE
CONVECTION INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.





&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TSTMS WILL IMPACT KSAV LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNSET. PROBABILITIES FOR
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ROUGHLY 21-00Z...SO A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MID-RANGE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER.
LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
IF HEAVIER TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. AT KCHS...PROBABILITIES
ARE LOWER AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TSRA OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING
LEGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SITE VISIT WILL BE PERFORMED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 ALSO REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...AND A SITE
VISIT BY NDBC IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY TO EITHER
REPAIR THE SITE OR EXCHANGE FOR A NEW BUOY SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031409
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT ENTERS FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TO AL...ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AT 12Z. THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
AFTN. MORNING SHOWERS ARE DYING OFF AS EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM OF
INSTBY. THE VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS...AND EXPECT
ENUF HEATING TO RESULT IN 1500 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE BY EARLY AFTN
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS OVERLAPPED WITH THE INSTBY. AS
EXPECTED...THE CAMS SHOW SOME ROBUST-LOOKING DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS. SO I EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE THIS AFTN. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED COVERAGE OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...GIVEN LESS INSTBY. POPS WERE TWEAKED REFLECTING THE TRENDS
IN THE CAMS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT VORT LOBE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF AXIS AND CROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA. SO POPS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER WITHIN NWLY
FLOW. MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     LOW   52%
KHKY       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031203
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 13Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN TIME FOR THUNDER WILL BE 20Z TO 04/04Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031203
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 13Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN TIME FOR THUNDER WILL BE 20Z TO 04/04Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031101
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSOLIDATED
CONVECTIVE SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS...AS IT MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. THE LINE WOULD TENTATIVELY REACH INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY 3-4 PM AND REACH THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY 6-9 PM ASSUMING MESOSCALE PROCESSES REMAIN
IN CHECK. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS CERTAINLY A BIT WEAKER ALONG THE
I-16 CORRIDOR...BUT VALUES AROUND 30 KT IN THAT AREA ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A QLCS IF IT GETS ORGANIZED. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THE
BETTER SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLAN TO REALIGN POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE SUNRISE
UPDATE...INCREASING POPS TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND LOWER THEM TO 50 PERCENT IN ALLENDALE- WALTERBORO-
MONCKS CORNER CORRIDOR.

TODAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING
THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER GEORGIA
TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE/DAVA SPREADING IN IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY MORNING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONVECTION IS POISED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IS REPLACED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN RESPONSE TO POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUT OF THE
OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE OVER/INTO INLAND
AREAS, THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. CONVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS WELL AS A
CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BETWEEN DIVERGING BRANCHES OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA, SO POPS WILL BE MAXED OUT IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE SSEO CONSENSUS
TO CONSTRUCT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS
THROUGH SUNSET.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING MAX HEATING AS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST JUXTAPOSED WITH A RIBBON OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS--ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KT--OWING TO INFLUENCES FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, BUT THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
VARIOUS TIMING/CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT UNKNOWNS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR
OF STRONGEST UPPER FORCING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TSTMS WILL IMPACT KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT A LINE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ROUGHLY 21-00Z...SO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MID-RANGE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER. LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR...ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. AT
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING LEGS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031101
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSOLIDATED
CONVECTIVE SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS...AS IT MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. THE LINE WOULD TENTATIVELY REACH INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY 3-4 PM AND REACH THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY 6-9 PM ASSUMING MESOSCALE PROCESSES REMAIN
IN CHECK. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS CERTAINLY A BIT WEAKER ALONG THE
I-16 CORRIDOR...BUT VALUES AROUND 30 KT IN THAT AREA ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A QLCS IF IT GETS ORGANIZED. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THE
BETTER SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLAN TO REALIGN POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE SUNRISE
UPDATE...INCREASING POPS TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND LOWER THEM TO 50 PERCENT IN ALLENDALE- WALTERBORO-
MONCKS CORNER CORRIDOR.

TODAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING
THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER GEORGIA
TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE/DAVA SPREADING IN IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY MORNING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONVECTION IS POISED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IS REPLACED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN RESPONSE TO POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUT OF THE
OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE OVER/INTO INLAND
AREAS, THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. CONVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS WELL AS A
CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BETWEEN DIVERGING BRANCHES OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA, SO POPS WILL BE MAXED OUT IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE SSEO CONSENSUS
TO CONSTRUCT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS
THROUGH SUNSET.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING MAX HEATING AS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST JUXTAPOSED WITH A RIBBON OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS--ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KT--OWING TO INFLUENCES FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, BUT THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
VARIOUS TIMING/CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT UNKNOWNS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR
OF STRONGEST UPPER FORCING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TSTMS WILL IMPACT KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT A LINE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ROUGHLY 21-00Z...SO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MID-RANGE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER. LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR...ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. AT
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING LEGS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
OGB AND AGS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 04Z-06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
OGB AND AGS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 04Z-06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
OGB WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 04Z-06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
OGB WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 04Z-06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031003
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545AM TUESDAY MORNING...UPPER CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCED
TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY STUCK OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ADVANCE AS WELL BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND
EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING.  WINDS WITH THE FROPA VEER FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.  FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE ADVECTION OF DRYER AND
MORE STABLE AIR.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE NATURE AND
SEVERITY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  CAPE IMPROVES
DIURNALLY BUT WILL BE HIGHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DUE TO A REDUCTION IN MOIST ADVECTION AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
IMPROVES FLOW...WITH BULK SHEAR PROGGED AT 40 TO 60 KTS ALONG FRONT.

CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS...AND THE CAMS IN PARTICULAR...SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT THE BEST OVERLAY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY
INVOLVE ONLY THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 19Z...EXITING THE CWA BY
23Z.  VEERED SURFACE WINDS AND REDUCED INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT
WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO MOSTLY WIND GUSTS.  SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE TN
BORDER...BUT PRECIP CHANCES DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     LOW   39%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGMU       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KAND       MED   72%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030942
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
542 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -1 TO -4. EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR MAY STILL HELP SUPPORT
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
OGB WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 04Z-06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030900
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -1 TO -4. EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR MAY STILL HELP SUPPORT
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
JUST WEST OF THE CSRA NEWRD TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAE METRO AREA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 07Z-08Z DEPENDING ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA THIS MORNING. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING QUITE A BIT OF
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND
MIDLANDS WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD FIRE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...CSRA AND FAR INLAND ZONES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA
BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DAVA ADVECTS IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BUT THE RISK FOR A SEVERE TSTM IS LOW. WILL
CARRY 20-30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z WITH
THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS TRANSLATING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TODAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING
THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER GEORGIA
TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE/DAVA SPREADING IN IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY MORNING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONVECTION IS POISED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IS REPLACED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN RESPONSE TO POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUT OF THE
OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE OVER/INTO INLAND
AREAS, THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. CONVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS WELL AS A
CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE THAT WILL DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA BETWEEN DIVERGING BRANCHES OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA, SO POPS WILL BE MAXED OUT IN THE LOW-END LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE SSEO
CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
GRIDDED POPS THROUGH SUNSET.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING MAX HEATING AS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST JUXTAPOSED WITH A RIBBON OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS--ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KT--OWING TO INFLUENCES FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, BUT THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
VARIOUS TIMING/CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT UNKNOWNS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR
OF STRONGEST UPPER FORCING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT SUNSET...MOST OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. REMNANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME DISTURBANCES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO AT MOST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS...BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING AROUND
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANYTHING. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW IT. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOT...AND
THE MID 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT THEY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA DRY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
HEIGHTS...NO THREAT OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TSTMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KCHS THROUGH 07Z. WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WELL INLAND AFTER 09Z...WHICH COULD IMPACT
KCHS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA JUST YET. KSAV
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP THERE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ATTN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. TIMING/COVERAGE
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANY IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS WILL BE AFTER 20-21Z. WILL THEREFORE
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA THIS FAR OUT FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE ONCE THE 06Z
MODEL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 15 KT REMAINING LEGS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
STRONG TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE, SO
NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WIND FIELD. SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-20
KTS WITHING 20 NM AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 FT BEYOND 15 NM AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 3 FT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/MS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315AM TUESDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA.  THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING OF STORMS...HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE MADE
ENOUGH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TO AVOID TRAINING.  MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3S OF THE
CWA.  ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SW-NE SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...EXITING THE CWA
TUESDAY EVENING.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECLINE RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.  WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.  AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES GIVING INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OF 50 TO 55 KTS.  THIS
COMBINES WITH LI TO -6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.  VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARGUE AGAINST STRONG SUPERCELLS...WITH SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030615
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200AM TUESDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA.  THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING OF STORMS...HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE MADE
ENOUGH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TO AVOID TRAINING.  MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3S OF THE
CWA.  ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SW-NE SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...EXITING THE CWA
TUESDAY EVENING.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECLINE RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.  WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.  AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES GIVING INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OF 50 TO 55 KTS.  THIS
COMBINES WITH LI TO -6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.  VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARGUE AGAINST STRONG SUPERCELLS...WITH SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   75%     HIGH  99%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   63%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT/WJM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRODUCING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWER/TSTMS WILL PASS ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH 3 AM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOPING INLAND AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA 3AM-SUNRISE. MAINTAINED ELEVATED POPS
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA TO COVER. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
A DEGREE OR SO PER GOING TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S....APPROACHING
OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR
FIGURING OUT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION THAT MIGHT BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVES EAST. THE NAM THEN INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. GOING
WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS REDEVELOPING
LATER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE A
SIMILAR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY SURFACE
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY ONE
IMPULSE. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FEEL THERE IS STILL A
LOW/MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES
IN THE 500- 700 J/KG RANGE. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP
SOUTHWEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND DEEP LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. KEPT THE TREND OF LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST POPS LESS THAN 15% OVER LAND BY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE BLOCK...WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEST-
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AROUND 80. THIS IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. PERIODIC UPPER VORT
LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BASE OF THE UPPER/BLOCKING
TROUGH. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN BRIEF INCREASES IN CLOUDS...NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP. IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RE-
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. WINDS WILL STAY UP ALL NIGHT FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60
COAST...CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BLOCKING
UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES...NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS FROM OVER THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO FAR OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY.
REPLACING THE TROUGH WILL BE A BUILDING RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TSTMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KCHS THROUGH 07Z. WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WELL INLAND AFTER 09Z...WHICH COULD IMPACT
KCHS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA JUST YET. KSAV
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP THERE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ATTN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. TIMING/COVERAGE
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANY IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS WILL BE AFTER 20-21Z. WILL THEREFORE
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA THIS FAR OUT FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE ONCE THE 06Z
MODEL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOR TUESDAY...PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL BOTH SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTING S WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR
LESS WILL TRANSITION TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. AS A RESULT...S/SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20
KT...AND SEAS SHOULD BUILD FROM 2-3 FT TO 3-5 FT MOST
AREAS...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ALSO OF NOTE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS/SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...THE MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
COULD PERIODICALLY GET AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT GENERALLY 15
KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE/BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS INCREASING BACK TO 15-20 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5
FEET BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS DECREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030500
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
100 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -2 TO -3 AT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR MAY
STILL HELP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20 TO -25 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
JUST WEST OF THE CSRA NEWRD TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAE METRO AREA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 07Z-08Z DEPENDING ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030500
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
100 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -2 TO -3 AT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR MAY
STILL HELP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20 TO -25 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
JUST WEST OF THE CSRA NEWRD TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAE METRO AREA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 07Z-08Z DEPENDING ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




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