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000
FXUS62 KGSP 030313
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...SFC WEDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER SW ACROSS THE CWFA IS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER ISENT LIFT -SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES.
MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GOM/ATL OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE -RA BY 08Z OR SO. THE LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND SFC MINS WILL DROP OFF JUST ENUF ACROSS THE
NRN BLUE RIDGE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA/FRDZ JUST BEFORE AND AFTER
SUNRISE...SO NO ADJ WERE MADE TO THE FZ.Y.

AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030313
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...SFC WEDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER SW ACROSS THE CWFA IS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER ISENT LIFT -SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES.
MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GOM/ATL OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE -RA BY 08Z OR SO. THE LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND SFC MINS WILL DROP OFF JUST ENUF ACROSS THE
NRN BLUE RIDGE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA/FRDZ JUST BEFORE AND AFTER
SUNRISE...SO NO ADJ WERE MADE TO THE FZ.Y.

AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030313
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...SFC WEDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER SW ACROSS THE CWFA IS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER ISENT LIFT -SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES.
MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GOM/ATL OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE -RA BY 08Z OR SO. THE LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND SFC MINS WILL DROP OFF JUST ENUF ACROSS THE
NRN BLUE RIDGE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA/FRDZ JUST BEFORE AND AFTER
SUNRISE...SO NO ADJ WERE MADE TO THE FZ.Y.

AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 030313
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...SFC WEDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER SW ACROSS THE CWFA IS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER ISENT LIFT -SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES.
MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GOM/ATL OVERNIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE -RA BY 08Z OR SO. THE LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND SFC MINS WILL DROP OFF JUST ENUF ACROSS THE
NRN BLUE RIDGE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA/FRDZ JUST BEFORE AND AFTER
SUNRISE...SO NO ADJ WERE MADE TO THE FZ.Y.

AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 030257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
THEN WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 290-295K SURFACE PRODUCE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN THAT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 11 PM-12 AM NW
SECTIONS...THEN SPREADING EAST TO REACH PLACES SUCH AS MONCKS
CORNER...SUMMERVILLE...WALTERBORO BY 3 AM...AND THE
CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND STATESBORO LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF I-16 WILL STAY RAINFREE.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR
CEILINGS. MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MVFR. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SC
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INTO AND THROUGH THE GA WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE/EAST AND SURGING IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS VALID FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF 15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD
WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. GIVEN MID AND
UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS ARE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE
FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...MOST ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERNMOST SC WATERS
OUT 20 NM AND THE GA WATERS OUT 20 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
THEN WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 290-295K SURFACE PRODUCE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN THAT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 11 PM-12 AM NW
SECTIONS...THEN SPREADING EAST TO REACH PLACES SUCH AS MONCKS
CORNER...SUMMERVILLE...WALTERBORO BY 3 AM...AND THE
CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND STATESBORO LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF I-16 WILL STAY RAINFREE.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR
CEILINGS. MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MVFR. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SC
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INTO AND THROUGH THE GA WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE/EAST AND SURGING IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS VALID FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF 15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD
WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. GIVEN MID AND
UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS ARE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE
FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...MOST ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERNMOST SC WATERS
OUT 20 NM AND THE GA WATERS OUT 20 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 022358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...MADE UPWARD ADJ/S TO HR/LY TEMP TRENDS WHICH ARE
STILL AFFECTED BY THE WARM AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
TONIGHT/S MIN TEMPS A LITTLE AND RUN NEW DIURNAL CURVE...EVEN
WITH WEDGE BNDRY BEGINNING TO PUSH IN.

AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SFC BNDRY
STALLING AND ATL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING. WITH WEDGE MOISTENING BY
08Z...CIGS WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING -SHRA/DZ WILL REDUCE CIGS TO IFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 40 KT SW/LY JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT 3 KFT AFT 20Z...A LITTLE TOO ELEVATED FOR A
SIGFNT WINDSHEAR CONCERN...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH
HIGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE...FLIGHT CONDS WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. A MOIST WEDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BRING
CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE IFR RANGE
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE A 40 KT SW/LY
JET DEVELOP AFT 20Z ARND 3 KFT. A LITTLE HIGH FOR A DEFINITE
WINDSHEAR ISSUE...BUT GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NONETHELESS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A LOWERING OF THE VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 04Z THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE VALID CYCLE. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS OFFSHORE
WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN MID
AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A LOWERING OF THE VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 04Z THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE VALID CYCLE. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS OFFSHORE
WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN MID
AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A LOWERING OF THE VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 04Z THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE VALID CYCLE. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS OFFSHORE
WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN MID
AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A LOWERING OF THE VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 04Z THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE VALID CYCLE. THERE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH WIND FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SUB-1000 FT CEILINGS AND MIST DO REMAIN A
DEFINITE CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF WINDS SLACKEN
ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAINS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERATED BY SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DECENT INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS OFFSHORE
WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN MID
AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ATOP THE COLDER SHELF WATERS WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE/WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022326
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 022150
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022150
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 022150
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022150
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING WARMER THAN THE FCST GRIDS. OBSERVED WINDS ARE A
CAT OR SO STRONGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STILL EXPECT ISOL/SCT -RA TO
REACH THE SW/RN ZONES BY 00Z.

AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND GRAND STRAND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA...MID 70S IN
MOST PLACES...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ITS
WAKE AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER
LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
EXPECT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS
OFFSHORE WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT ALONG AT LEAST THE GEORGIA NEAR SHORE WATERS IF NOT THE
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL. DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER
NORTH...INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS BUILD DOWN SO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LESS OF A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS/MTE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...JAQ/WMS/MTE



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND GRAND STRAND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA...MID 70S IN
MOST PLACES...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME AND
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. RAIN
PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST...IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEDGE
WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION. MEANWHILE...SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW THICK CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HOLD THE WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE SETS UP...BEFORE THE FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL IN AN INLAND WEDGE
PATTERN...HAVE INDICATED A RATHER NOTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE COULD GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN ITS WAKE.
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BUILD-
DOWN OF STRATUS WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES QUITE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WITHIN SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAY THAN SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...A RESULT OF BOTH THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND POSSIBLY SOME INTRUSION OF SEA FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INLAND...PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT CONSIDERING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...YET REMAIN JUST UPSTREAM BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE AS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD
STILL PERSIST AND SLIP LOCALLY ONSHORE.

THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT NOON ON THURSDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE...BUT
I AM STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
12Z NAM IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT AND I
THINK IT IS OVERDONE...BUT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK
THAT UPPER END CHANCE LEVELS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT BASED ON THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED
A LITTLE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ITS
WAKE AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER
LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
EXPECT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/E AND
SURGING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT BEGINNING
AT 10 PM FOR 20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD PEAK UPWARDS OF
15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD WITHIN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A
FAVORABLE FETCH...REACHING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK AS
OFFSHORE WINDS ADVECTED IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT ALONG AT LEAST THE GEORGIA NEAR SHORE WATERS IF NOT THE
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL. DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER
NORTH...INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS BUILD DOWN SO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LESS OF A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AMZ350
BY LATE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS/MTE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...JAQ/WMS/MTE




000
FXUS62 KCAE 022123
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
423 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022123
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
423 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 022008
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 022008
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 022008
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE TARDY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WREAK
HAVOC UPON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RUNNING ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN FCST AS OF 19Z. WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP TEMPS UP ONCE MORE...AND ADJUST TO THE TREND THAT
WAS TAKEN FROM A SUPER-BLEND OF GUIDANCE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT YET...SO
POP TREND WAS ALSO KNOCKED DOWN.

WHAT WE HAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANOTHER NUISANCE-TYPE
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS OF NC. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE CARRIES A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PAST TO
THE N THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE OLD BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN/UPSTATE/SRN NC MTNS AS THE UPGLIDE BEGINS. WILL
START WITH A CHANCE POP THERE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND/INCREASE THE
POP...FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST...THERE WILL
BE A SLIVER OR AREA OF TEMPS THAT DROP DOWN TO SOMETHING SUB-
FREEZING MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE N OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY AT BEST...BUT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THINK IT BEST TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING. THE REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD
ONTO A LIKELY POP FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE WEST...
WITH A CHC OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL SEEM LIKE
A CRUEL JOKE...NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH A NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY EVENING AMONGST WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
EAST...WHILE A TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE A MODEST WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE.  THE FCST INITIALIZES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPING WHILE LOWER MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED
FURTHER EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOLID LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS ADDED MENTION
OF THUNDER WHERE NEEDED ALTHOUGH NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FCST.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ONLY SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FROPA OCCURS LEADING TO SOLID LIKELY POPS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE PERIOD
BECOMES WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG THE NC MTN ZONES NEAR THE TN
LINE.   MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHEN THERMAL PROFILES YIELD A
SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH WOULD
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THE GFS LEANED TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...THUS A SHORTER PERIOD OF FZRA.
OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE MUCH ALIGNED WITH
THE NEW ECMWF.  THEREFORE...FCST FEATURES A PERIOD OF FZRA ALONG THE
TN LINE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PHASE CHANGE OCCURS TO
SLEET...THEN ALL SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN
HWO. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONT...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL RAIN PROCESSES WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AMONGST WAA
REGIME...WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN POST FROPA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...SFC FRONT WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THU
NIGHT AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE NW. LLVL
PROFILES ALONG THE TENN BORDER INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW...BUT THIS DIMINISHES QUICKLY. GLOBAL MODELS
NOW IN STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FLA PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FRI-SAT AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY
BEFORE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND TOP OUT AROUND 5 BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER COOL TEMPS ARE REINFORCED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF APPEARS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...THE 02/00Z EC AND A HANDFUL OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND LIFT INTO THE AREA
SUN OR SUN NIGHT. POPS WERE ALLOWED TO RAMP BACK UP FROM THE SW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021847
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY. AS A
RESULT HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIMIT VSBYS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBILITY PRODUCTS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR THE GA NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021847
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY. AS A
RESULT HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIMIT VSBYS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBILITY PRODUCTS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR THE GA NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JAQ



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021847
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY. AS A
RESULT HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIMIT VSBYS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBILITY PRODUCTS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR THE GA NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JAQ



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021847
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE
LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY. AS A
RESULT HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIMIT VSBYS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBILITY PRODUCTS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR THE GA NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOIST AND MILDER AIR SHOULD BE BACK ON WEDNESDAY OUT
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...DRYING US OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...THE FOG IS LONG GONE...AND THE SKY HAS CLEARED
ACROSS ALL BUT A REMNANT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE ARE MUCH CLEARER
THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RACE
UPWARD A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES. THE MAX TEMPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCEEDED BY MORE THAN TEN DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS YET TO
ARRIVE. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THOSE
AREAS...AND ALSO A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHICH
CLEARED OUT MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO PRECIP YET.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. THINK
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES IN THE 035-050
RANGE...WHICH COULD BRING A TEMPORARY CEILING. A WEST WIND AT THE
MOMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO COME AROUND TO NW OR N. THE SITUATION
SHOULD GO DOWNHILL THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
THROUGH FROM THE NE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING
TO DEVELOP NO LATER THAN 03Z...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AS
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS AND UPGLIDE INCREASES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD BE NE FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS...INTO THE
LOWER PART OF MVFR...AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN MVFR CEILING AT KAVL SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE FCST WILL PROCEED SIMILAR TO KCLT
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE N/NE. CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MID
EVENING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FIRST MVFR AND THEN IFR. A
CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU DAYBREAK HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KHKY HAS A CHANCE AT ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT CHANCE SHOULD BE SMALL AS THE MAIN POTENTIAL IS
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
VFR.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021713
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1213 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER
WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS
AFTER 14Z AS COLD AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 021549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
KCHS SOUNDING...AND THIS INVERSION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.

A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WORK TO ERODE SOME OF THE
STRATUS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE AND/OR MARINE
FOG/STRATUS COULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS IN THE 50S
FOR THE WHOLE DAY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL THESE HIGHS
ARE TOO WARM...AND IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST BUT CONFIDENCE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO
THE GEORGIA SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...JAQ/33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
KCHS SOUNDING...AND THIS INVERSION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.

A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WORK TO ERODE SOME OF THE
STRATUS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE AND/OR MARINE
FOG/STRATUS COULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS IN THE 50S
FOR THE WHOLE DAY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL THESE HIGHS
ARE TOO WARM...AND IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST BUT CONFIDENCE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO
THE GEORGIA SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...JAQ/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
KCHS SOUNDING...AND THIS INVERSION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.

A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WORK TO ERODE SOME OF THE
STRATUS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE AND/OR MARINE
FOG/STRATUS COULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS IN THE 50S
FOR THE WHOLE DAY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL THESE HIGHS
ARE TOO WARM...AND IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST BUT CONFIDENCE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO
THE GEORGIA SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...JAQ/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
KCHS SOUNDING...AND THIS INVERSION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.

A RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL WORK TO ERODE SOME OF THE
STRATUS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE AND/OR MARINE
FOG/STRATUS COULD KEEP THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS IN THE 50S
FOR THE WHOLE DAY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL THESE HIGHS
ARE TOO WARM...AND IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY
UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST BUT CONFIDENCE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO
THE GEORGIA SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...JAQ/33



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021525
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...OWING TO SOME STRONGER WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MOST EVIDENT OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS. THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA MIGHT BE THE LAST SPOT TO RETAIN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...
BUT THIS SHOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST EVEN UNTIL 11 AM...SO THE ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE EXTENDED. SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AT DAYBREAK HAS
DISSIPATED IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW E OF THE MTNS. OTHER LIGHT PRECIP
COMING ACROSS N GA HAS ALSO SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. WILL AMEND THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THEM FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME PLACES OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS THAT CLEARED OUT
IMMEDIATELY...THAT HAVE TEMPS ROCKETING UP PAST THE FCST HIGH. WILL
RE-EVALUATE THE COOL DRY AIR THAT SHOULD DROP DOWN FROM THE N LATER
IN THE DAY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021525
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...OWING TO SOME STRONGER WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MOST EVIDENT OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS. THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA MIGHT BE THE LAST SPOT TO RETAIN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...
BUT THIS SHOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST EVEN UNTIL 11 AM...SO THE ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE EXTENDED. SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AT DAYBREAK HAS
DISSIPATED IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW E OF THE MTNS. OTHER LIGHT PRECIP
COMING ACROSS N GA HAS ALSO SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. WILL AMEND THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THEM FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME PLACES OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS THAT CLEARED OUT
IMMEDIATELY...THAT HAVE TEMPS ROCKETING UP PAST THE FCST HIGH. WILL
RE-EVALUATE THE COOL DRY AIR THAT SHOULD DROP DOWN FROM THE N LATER
IN THE DAY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID-40S ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021452
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021410
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
910 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 021318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM...DO NOT LIKE THE TREND OF VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THINK IT BEST TO PAINT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING AREA ALONG/S OF I-85...WHICH HAS THE BENEFIT OF
FILLING IN A GAP BETWEEN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM...DO NOT LIKE THE TREND OF VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THINK IT BEST TO PAINT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING AREA ALONG/S OF I-85...WHICH HAS THE BENEFIT OF
FILLING IN A GAP BETWEEN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM...DO NOT LIKE THE TREND OF VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THINK IT BEST TO PAINT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING AREA ALONG/S OF I-85...WHICH HAS THE BENEFIT OF
FILLING IN A GAP BETWEEN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM...DO NOT LIKE THE TREND OF VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THINK IT BEST TO PAINT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING AREA ALONG/S OF I-85...WHICH HAS THE BENEFIT OF
FILLING IN A GAP BETWEEN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
705 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING
OFF A HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE
INVERSION LAYER WAS SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG THE
RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
AT DAYBREAK WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOST AREAS SOMEWHERE
EITHER SIDE OF 1/2 MILE.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DENSE FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
705 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING
OFF A HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE
INVERSION LAYER WAS SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG THE
RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
AT DAYBREAK WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOST AREAS SOMEWHERE
EITHER SIDE OF 1/2 MILE.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DENSE FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY UNTIL 16Z-17Z.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
BUILD DOWN STRATUS/FOG EVENT AT KCHS. IF IT OCCURS AT KSAV...IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE
THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE...ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SUPPORTING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLT HAS STILL YET TO FALL BELOW THE TERMINAL
MINIMUM THIS MORNING...BUT THEY ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND LEAVE CONDITIONS AT
1/2SM/VV002...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS (OF
COURSE) TIMING IMPROVEMENT OF THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN LIGHT OF THE LIGHT MIXING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THAT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN FLT CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z OR SO...WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z...
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER AT KCLT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
GIVE OR TAKE. NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT COMMENCES. PRECIP AND
LOW CIG CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...IT/S A DIFFERENT WORLD AT KAVL THIS MORNING...AS OTHER
THAN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...VFR
HAS PREDOMINATED. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE COME ROARING UP THE
VALLEY...CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT ANY FOG AND LOW CIG CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH I
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE SE BY
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 020927
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING OFF A
HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE INVERSION LAYER WAS
SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS THE RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A NICE BUILD-DOWN EVENT UNFOLDED AND FOG WAS WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS BELOW
1 NM. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT MODELS DAMPEN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
AS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RACES TO SE GEORGIA BY 12Z.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MID MORNING...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION LOCKING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020927
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING OFF A
HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE INVERSION LAYER WAS
SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS THE RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A NICE BUILD-DOWN EVENT UNFOLDED AND FOG WAS WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS BELOW
1 NM. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT MODELS DAMPEN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
AS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RACES TO SE GEORGIA BY 12Z.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MID MORNING...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION LOCKING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020927
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING OFF A
HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE INVERSION LAYER WAS
SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS THE RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A NICE BUILD-DOWN EVENT UNFOLDED AND FOG WAS WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS BELOW
1 NM. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT MODELS DAMPEN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
AS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RACES TO SE GEORGIA BY 12Z.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MID MORNING...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION LOCKING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020927
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING OFF A
HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE INVERSION LAYER WAS
SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS THE RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A NICE BUILD-DOWN EVENT UNFOLDED AND FOG WAS WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS BELOW
1 NM. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT MODELS DAMPEN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
AS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RACES TO SE GEORGIA BY 12Z.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MID MORNING...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION LOCKING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020927
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...15C-16C AIR AT 1500 FEET AGL THIS MORNING TOPPING OFF A
HUGE INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPS WERE STABLE IN THE MID 40S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AND ATOP THE INVERSION LAYER WAS
SATURATED AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS THE RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A NICE BUILD-DOWN EVENT UNFOLDED AND FOG WAS WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS BELOW
1 NM. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT MODELS DAMPEN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
AS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RACES TO SE GEORGIA BY 12Z.

A CLOUDY AND COOL...FOGGY AND DAMP START TO THE DAY WITH A RATHER
NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND FOG LOCKED IN THIS MORNING...WE THINK IT COULD
BE A SLOW PROCESS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MIX-DOWN SOME OF
THE WARMER AIR OFF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MEAN RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WHILE A LOT OF CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAINTAINED GENERAL PERSISTENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS
65 TO 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO GO HIGHER IF SOME SPOTS
SEE CLOUDS ERODING MORE THAN EXPECTED AND VICE-VERSA TO THE LOWER
SIDE IF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE TENACIOUS INTO THE MIDDAY OR
JUST BEYOND HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES INITIALLY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL YET AGAIN BE FOUND INLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WE LOOK TO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON MAINLY THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES TO GENERATE
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
COVERAGE WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION INTO A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT. DEPENDING UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS
ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A HUGE NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH
ALSO HAS THE RISK FOR A LARGE BUST IN REGARDS TO TEMPS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE COOLEST CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND 70-74 IN MANY COMMUNITIES SOUTH
OF I-16. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO RAPID IN SHIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICT...AND WE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION. EVEN SO...A
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG TO
ADVECT SECTIONS EAST OF I-95. THIS WILL BLEND WITH FOG AND STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN FURTHER WEST AS THE WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES ATOP THE COOLER GROUNDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
SEEM LIKELY AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME IN THE
EVENING...THEN WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS BRINGS WITH IT IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A
DEEP SW FLOW. IF WE WENT ENTIRELY WITH THE PURE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES IT SUPPORTS LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. BUT A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
FORMS IN THIS SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN EAST OF I-
95. EVEN SO WE/RE STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S WEST OF I-95...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WE/RE FORECASTING TEMPS SOME 6-8F BELOW ANY RECORDS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SEA
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RANGE OF SOME 18-20F IF NOT MORE FROM THE BEACHES TO THE WARMEST
INTERIOR LOCALES. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF/LIFT BY NOONTIME...BUT
WILL LURK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SPUR A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF US WILL BE RAINFREE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE HEADWAY TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL DISTRICT THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL IN THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY. THUS NO MENTION OF ANY T-STORMS. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...A MIXTURE OF SEA FOG AND LAND-BASED RADIATION FOG. A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED...FAR ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. THE
HIGH THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE
OFF SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND EAST...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS COULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PRODUCE A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNLESS THIS PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN NOW ANTICIPATED
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MID MORNING...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION LOCKING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILD DOWN STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED VSBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SOUNDS AND HARBOR OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MANY
REPORTS OTHER THAN THE CHS HARBOR CLOSURE EARLIER. ENOUGH EVIDENCE
HOWEVER FROM WEB CAMS TO GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO LATE MORNING. THE FOG MAY LINGER PAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT WITH FOG OF THIS NATURE IS
LOW. OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BUILD INTO THE GEORGIA
SHELF WATERS. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST BUT THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA FOG...WILL JUST HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN.

WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THEY BACK TO TO W OR NW.
WIND SHIFT NE AND ONSHORE FROM N TO S TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CHARLESTON WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN ON TUE. SEAS
WILL RE-BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PROMINENT FEATURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THERE IS ENOUGH PINCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST AMZ350 INTO MIDDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FROM BOTH THE WATER AND LAND
SOURCES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...PUTTING THE AREA
INTO THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR...AS A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE FLOW WILL OVERSPREADS THE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS...LEADING TO AT LEAST AREAS OF SEA
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR A GOOD BET...AND THE PORTS OF
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH CERTAINLY COULD BE CLOSED FOR AN EXTENDED
LENGTH OF TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND MOVES INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WINDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE COMBINATION OF
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AS A COASTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY FORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR GALES FOR ESPECIALLY
THE OUTER GA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IF THE COLD ADVECTION
IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020833
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER
MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSRUE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE ONGOING FOG
SITUATION...IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD 1/2-1/4 MILE VISBY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25...AS VISBY WAS
IMPROVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/THE WESTERN
UPSTATE...WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH GA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NEAR THE NC AND GA
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT CHANCE OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...UNTIL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID-40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NC...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO 65-70 ACROSS THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

WARM FRONT ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A CYCLONE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURE THING
THAT PRECIP WILL EXPAND THAT FAR NORTH...AND IF IT DOES QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE CAD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS AND THE SC MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ENTERTAINED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHS TILT
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN PORTION PROGRESSES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A FRONT IN
S GA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A RAIN
EVENT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL N OF OUT AREA.
AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FINALLY MOVING SW OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLE
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT
APPEAR TO COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN COLD AIR DAMMING ON TUESDAY...AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH ARM ADVECTION SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL...IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EST MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA TO NW MEXICO...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES...ORPHANING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW
MEXICO AND THE SW USA. THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY...
THOUGH STILL REMAINING BROAD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN NW
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE REMAINING TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE
AREA....WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE KEEPING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW GOING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE MAY
SPREAD NORTH OVER THIS HIGH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ007>009-
     012>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020603
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM...OCCL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA AREA BY DAYBREAK...AS
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG REMAINS SPORADIC ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HOISTING A DFA ATTM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS MOST AT RISK (I.E. THE PIEDMONT)...IT IS
STILL NOT NECESSARILY INEVITABLE THAT ONE WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LOSE
STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST. GFS ACCORDINGLY REMAINS
THE WETTEST MODEL. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH-END POPS BUT KEEP QPF ON THE
LOW END. A CONCERN WITH THE FROPA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PTYPE
TRANSITION ON ITS BACK SIDE. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH FZRA AND SLEET IN BETWEEN...AND PARTIAL
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FROM EC/GEM WOULD BASICALLY SUGGEST THE SAME.
FOLLOWING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS...THE MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU MRNG. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX THU MRNG AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT IF PCPN LASTS THAT LONG. TEMPS THU WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WHILE THE OPNL GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A NUMBER OF GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INSTEAD STALL IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...THIS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY THE 01/00Z EC. 12Z EC HAS COME IN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO
A DRY FCST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT KHKY/KCLT/KAND...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND ALREADY OCCURRING AT KHKY/KAND.
CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KGSP/GMU...AND WITH A WESTERLY/
SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. TIMING OF IMPROVING CIGS AND FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE...AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TOWARD THE N/NW. IN
FACT...DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH MAY EVEN RESULT
IN CLEARING AT KHKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS
ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN DETERIORATION IN FLT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...
OR HOW RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/POOR VISBY APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN ANYTHING THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN UP-VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT
TYPICALLY A GREAT SETUP FOR IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS AT KAVL...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS (SCT008). VISBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020600
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY. THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS HAS BUILT DOWN...LOW ENOUGH WHERE
FOG WAS NOW WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE FOG
TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS FAIR
GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RECENTLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY REGION...FOG HAD BECOME DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AND IT MAY NEED LATER EXPANSIONS.

DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F
NW TIER TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT
INVERSION TO LOCK ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG...PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T
GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM AT KSAV...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE. FOG WAS DENSE AT 06Z AT KCHS AND WHILE IT MAY BOUNCE
LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY TEND TO HANG IN.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A SHORT TIME. THIS EVENING
AND PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND KCHS AND MAY IMPINGE ON KSAV
SOMETIME AFTER MID EVENING. LOOK FOR

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020415
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL
YIELD TO A COLD FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK WITHIN AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COLD AIR
WEDGE REGIME...WITHIN THE FIRST 800-900 FT PER THE EVENING
SOUNDING...AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A LITTLE SPOTTY RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK THAT
HOLDS IN PLACE. WITH TIME THIS ALREADY LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN
FURTHER...LOW ENOUGH WHERE AREAS OF FOG LATE THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WIDESPREAD. WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST/NW WITHIN THE 925-750 MB THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IS FAIR GAME FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ONE MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES...DEPENDENT UPON HOW LOW THE STRATUS
FALLS AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS GO LIGHT OR CALM. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY COLD OR WARM ADVECTION THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO RANGE FROM 41-42F NW TIER
TO 46-49F ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE PATTERN. AFTER FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO START MONDAY...THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT...CLOUDS COULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THEN...A COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/OVERRUNNING REGIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS/SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE VORT PUSHES EAST AND THE OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WINDS DOWN...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VARIES FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOW.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND COULD EVEN
RISE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEA FOG WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH DEWPOINTS UPWARD
THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...USHERING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
ONE DAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD REACH 80F. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RELATED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE COOL/MOIST MARINE LAYER. SUNDAY
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS/FOG AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S INTO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD HOLD
FOG/STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/NEAR 80F. THE FORECAST AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCORPORATES
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN EITHER CASE...LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...POPS
REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHERN/INLAND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS WILL BE STUCK WITHIN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROMINENT INVERSION
TO HOLD ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE CERTAINLY COULD DROP BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG..PLUS A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. FOR NOW WE HAVEN/T GONE ANY LOWER THAN 200 FT AND 3/4NM...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AS THE INVERSION LIFTS THERE WILL BE AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN VFR FOR A
SHORT TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SHARP COASTAL COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GIVES WAY TO A PORTION OF THE
INLAND WEDGE FROM THE NW BY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING...BACKING AROUND MORE TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR UNDER. SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED GIVEN RECENT STRONG WINDS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PERSISTS FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 5 FT OR LOWER IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 1
FOOT WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS ALREADY BEEN
CLOSED DUE TO DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LOW STRATUS DECKS UNDER 400-500 FT
WILL LOWER MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG THAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY STILL MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME AS VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
PRESENTLY IN EFFECT DUE TO THE FOG FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...PERHAPS PEAKING AT NE 15-20 KT ACCOMPANIED
BY SEAS 3-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THEN
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THUS SUPPORT SLACKENING WINDS LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM WEDNESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S OVER CHILLY SHELF WATERS...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEA FOG COULD PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD
FROPA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
LIKELY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...DPB/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 020258
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. YET
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FCST. STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE
SFC INVERSION KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CUT OFF RAD
COOLING...BUT A DENSE FG ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE SFC TDD/S ARE ONLY 1-2 DEGREES F. A FEW SITES ARE
ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VSBY IN THESE AREAS. STILL COUNTING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE ALIGNED WITHIN AND BEHIND A SFC TROF TO REACH THE SW/RN
ZONES IN A FEW HRS...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE WITH SW/LY ADJ/S MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MORE AREAS RECEIVING DZ THAN -SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

630 PM EST UPDATE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE MTNS. A WEAKLY SUPPORTED SFC BNDRY IS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH -SHRA COVERAGE AS CROSSES EAST...BUT PATCHY DZ WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMP DIURNAL CURVES ACROSS MOST MTN
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJ TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE HEATING IN SCT CONDS.

430 PM EST UPDATE...OVC/BKN LLVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED AND THE CENTER OF
THE SMALL SCALE SFC HIGH KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF ISENT LIFT WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT POP TRENDS
HAVE THE PRECIP IN CHECK WITH DIMINISHING -RA/DZ OVER THE SE/RN
ZONES AND INCREASING -SHRA POPS OVER THE NC MTN AND NE GA WITH WEAK
BNDRY MOVING IN. TEMPS/TDS ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY STATE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

AS OF 220 PM EST SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE
ATOP SAID WEDGE YIELDS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT.  SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AMONGST WEAK SFC FLOW
SETTING UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR REDUCED VISB DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST
WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1KFT.  EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CAD WEDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALIZED
LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS DECREASING AS UPGLIDE REGIME WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WHILE
AIDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FORM WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPS MID MORNING
MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN SHARPLY BEHIND.  MODEL
PROGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
TERRAIN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.  THIS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BACK DOOR FROPA.  AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTRUDES.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH FLOW POSSIBLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO ABUNDANT SKY
COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP ONCE AGAIN MON
NITE AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. EXPECT PRECIP
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE
AREAS OF NC. RIGHT NOW...QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. OF
COURSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RISE ACROSS THE MTNS...OUTSIDE OF THE CAD...BUT
WILL ONLY SEE A SMALL RISE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE WITH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS END UP
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CAD SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE TUE NITE INTO WED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE...WITH BEST CHC
RETREATING TO THE MTNS...BEFORE DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SPEED OF
PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A
MDL BLEND FOR POP. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE TUE NITE
AND WED MORNING AS THE CAD ERODES...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHOULD SEE EARLY
LOWS TUE NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. HIGHS WED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL. HOWEVER...FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIP WILL PLAY A
BIG PART IN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE AT LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWFA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LATEST AVBL OPNL GFS/EC/GEM RUNS IN
TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE FROPA...BUT THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BUT STALLING
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EC/GEM
AND EVEN MOST MEMBERS OF THE GFS