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000
FXUS62 KCAE 300709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
TOWARD THE COAST ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI
NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW
VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
TOWARD THE COAST ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI
NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW
VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
TOWARD THE COAST ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI
NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW
VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
TOWARD THE COAST ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI
NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW
VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 300609
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...A LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK /NOT WELL HANDLED BY
GUIDANCE/ HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A POCKET OF STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS FROM PRECIP ENCOUNTERING THE MTNS OF EAST TN HAS NOW
EVIDENTLY PUSHED INTO THE MTNS LEAVING MAINLY NW FLOW PRECIP. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY FALLING FROM THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AREA OF WNC WITH FLEETING VERY LIGHT RETURNS. TRENDS SUGGEST THESE
WON/T MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST EVEN AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS.
TEMPS ARE REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN WARMING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY SLOWED NOCTURNALLY. IT IS STILL PROGGED
TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. REVISED HRLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY NOT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE CLOUD COVER ENOUGH. DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE IT BUT THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME. RAPID
COOLING IS LIKELY ONCE WINDS FLIP AND SKIES CLEAR.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD
BE A DOMINANT P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF NW SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...MOIST LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN
STRONG CAA NW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF
CAMPOP AND OTHER GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG
THE TN LINE WITH SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND
LESS FAVORING H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN
2 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN
LINE TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ALREADY SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH TIMING OF WSHFT. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST OF THE MTNS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR NWLY AFTER 08Z WITH SOLIDLY NW
WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER. A MIDLEVEL CIG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE UNLESS DOWNSLOPING IS MORE EFFECTIVE
THAN ANTICIPATED. NW WINDS WITH FREQUENT LOW-END GUSTS AS SOON AS
MIXING BEGINS TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT
THOUGH. GENERALLY CALMER AND CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SFC CONDS.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW VFR CIG WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY AM DUE TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA. NW FLOW WILL DRIVE
MTN PRECIP ALONG THE TENN BORDER. PCPN CHANCES AT KAVL ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION BUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER EXPECTATION OF AN MVFR CIG AT KAVL
BUT A FEW CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. WSHFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR POST FROPA GENERALLY IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE
CIGS SCOURING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CIGS MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS GUSTING HIGHER. KAVL MIGHT
SEE SOME GUSTS OF 30-35KT. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO REMAIN MCLR.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS.
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300609
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...A LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK /NOT WELL HANDLED BY
GUIDANCE/ HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A POCKET OF STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS FROM PRECIP ENCOUNTERING THE MTNS OF EAST TN HAS NOW
EVIDENTLY PUSHED INTO THE MTNS LEAVING MAINLY NW FLOW PRECIP. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY FALLING FROM THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AREA OF WNC WITH FLEETING VERY LIGHT RETURNS. TRENDS SUGGEST THESE
WON/T MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST EVEN AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS.
TEMPS ARE REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN WARMING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY SLOWED NOCTURNALLY. IT IS STILL PROGGED
TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. REVISED HRLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY NOT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE CLOUD COVER ENOUGH. DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE IT BUT THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME. RAPID
COOLING IS LIKELY ONCE WINDS FLIP AND SKIES CLEAR.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD
BE A DOMINANT P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF NW SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...MOIST LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN
STRONG CAA NW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF
CAMPOP AND OTHER GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG
THE TN LINE WITH SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND
LESS FAVORING H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN
2 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN
LINE TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ALREADY SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH TIMING OF WSHFT. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST OF THE MTNS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR NWLY AFTER 08Z WITH SOLIDLY NW
WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER. A MIDLEVEL CIG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE UNLESS DOWNSLOPING IS MORE EFFECTIVE
THAN ANTICIPATED. NW WINDS WITH FREQUENT LOW-END GUSTS AS SOON AS
MIXING BEGINS TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT
THOUGH. GENERALLY CALMER AND CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SFC CONDS.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW VFR CIG WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY AM DUE TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA. NW FLOW WILL DRIVE
MTN PRECIP ALONG THE TENN BORDER. PCPN CHANCES AT KAVL ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION BUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER EXPECTATION OF AN MVFR CIG AT KAVL
BUT A FEW CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. WSHFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR POST FROPA GENERALLY IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE
CIGS SCOURING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CIGS MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS GUSTING HIGHER. KAVL MIGHT
SEE SOME GUSTS OF 30-35KT. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO REMAIN MCLR.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS.
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 300526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
30/05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MEAGER
SO FAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY
REMAINING QUITE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMES MORE INTO PLAY...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REALLY
ONLY SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

LAKE WINDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2 AM...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST WINDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z AFTER WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT AMZ374 OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT TRENDS...DELAYED THE START OF
THE SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR UNTIL 2 AM...AND SCA WINDS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP A FEW HOURS LATER.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE SW TOWARD THE
W AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INTENSIFY...AND GUSTS 25-30 KT SHOULD BECOME COMMON LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-6 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
30/05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MEAGER
SO FAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY
REMAINING QUITE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMES MORE INTO PLAY...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REALLY
ONLY SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

LAKE WINDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2 AM...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST WINDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z AFTER WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT AMZ374 OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT TRENDS...DELAYED THE START OF
THE SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR UNTIL 2 AM...AND SCA WINDS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP A FEW HOURS LATER.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE SW TOWARD THE
W AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INTENSIFY...AND GUSTS 25-30 KT SHOULD BECOME COMMON LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-6 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXIT
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KY/TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE LINES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE ERN CWA AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN OFFSHORE.

AS THE SHORT WAVE/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AREA
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95
TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXIT
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KY/TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE LINES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE ERN CWA AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN OFFSHORE.

AS THE SHORT WAVE/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AREA
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95
TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXIT
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KY/TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE LINES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE ERN CWA AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN OFFSHORE.

AS THE SHORT WAVE/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AREA
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95
TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXIT
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KY/TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE LINES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE ERN CWA AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN OFFSHORE.

AS THE SHORT WAVE/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AREA
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95
TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KCHS
SOUNDING...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MANY
AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AND EVEN MOST
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FALL SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH.

UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE WINDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2 AM...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST WINDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA APPROXIMATELY DURING THE
08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM
03Z-06Z UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT AMZ374 OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT TRENDS...DELAYED THE START OF
THE SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR UNTIL 2 AM...AND SCA WINDS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP A FEW HOURS LATER.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE SW TOWARD THE
W AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INTENSIFY...AND GUSTS 25-30 KT SHOULD BECOME COMMON LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-6 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KCHS
SOUNDING...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS
STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MANY
AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AND EVEN MOST
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FALL SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH.

UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE WINDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2 AM...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST WINDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA APPROXIMATELY DURING THE
08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM
03Z-06Z UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT AMZ374 OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT TRENDS...DELAYED THE START OF
THE SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR UNTIL 2 AM...AND SCA WINDS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP A FEW HOURS LATER.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE SW TOWARD THE
W AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INTENSIFY...AND GUSTS 25-30 KT SHOULD BECOME COMMON LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-6 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300310
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...PRECIP IS SLOW TO GET GOING UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE THE MOISTURE REACHES THE
MTNS...THERE SHUD BE A QUICK INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I TWEAKED THE POP TRENDS TO DELAY
ONSET...BUT STILL ALLOW TO RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN LESS SNOW ACCUM...BUT THE SPS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED CROSSING THE GREAT TN
VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN A LITTLE LOWER ON WINDS...BUT
AGAIN...THINK THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WIND ADV LEVEL GUSTS
ACRS THE NRN MTNS THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WIND ADV. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NW
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ALSO
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300310
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...PRECIP IS SLOW TO GET GOING UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE THE MOISTURE REACHES THE
MTNS...THERE SHUD BE A QUICK INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I TWEAKED THE POP TRENDS TO DELAY
ONSET...BUT STILL ALLOW TO RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN LESS SNOW ACCUM...BUT THE SPS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED CROSSING THE GREAT TN
VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN A LITTLE LOWER ON WINDS...BUT
AGAIN...THINK THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WIND ADV LEVEL GUSTS
ACRS THE NRN MTNS THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WIND ADV. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NW
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ALSO
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DRY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED
ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 292143
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291522 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291522 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291517
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...20/30 POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR THE AFFECTING
AREAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
VERY LIGHT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO
WINTRY P-TYPE IS EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING
TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE AREA WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ADVECTING TO THE REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL
FORCING EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290616
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP
CHANCES...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND
THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290514
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290514
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEAR CALM AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEAR CALM AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KGSP 281443
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF WESTERN NC...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
REGIONWIDE THIS MORNING.  INCREASING INSOLATION AND MODERATE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE ALREADY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.  WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BLUERIDGE THUS BLENDED IN LATEST MAV AND RECALCULATED GUSTS TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS.  RH LEVELS ARE STILL FCST TO FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY
FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NNW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GO SOUTH THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT
QUANTITIES FOR A CIG. ALTHOUGH LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY...IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KGSP 281116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NNW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GO SOUTH THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT
QUANTITIES FOR A CIG. ALTHOUGH LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY...IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




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