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000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 021458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FOUND. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSITION INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC. HIGHS WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO START OFF BUT SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S FAR INLAND AND CLOSER TO 90
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S
ALONG THE GA COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE
LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK...POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS...SOME SHALLOW SALTWATER INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL PRONE AREAS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
THAT LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FOUND. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSITION INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC. HIGHS WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO START OFF BUT SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S FAR INLAND AND CLOSER TO 90
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S
ALONG THE GA COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE
LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK...POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS...SOME SHALLOW SALTWATER INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL PRONE AREAS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
THAT LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FOUND. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSITION INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC. HIGHS WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO START OFF BUT SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S FAR INLAND AND CLOSER TO 90
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S
ALONG THE GA COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE
LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK...POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS...SOME SHALLOW SALTWATER INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL PRONE AREAS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
THAT LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INLAND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FOUND. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSITION INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC. HIGHS WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO START OFF BUT SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S FAR INLAND AND CLOSER TO 90
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S
ALONG THE GA COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE
LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK...POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS...SOME SHALLOW SALTWATER INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL PRONE AREAS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
THAT LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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000
FXUS62 KCAE 021431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
16Z.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
16Z.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
16Z.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
16Z.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS ARE
TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING
THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA
WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY
NW OF A LINE FROM LUDOWICO TO SAVANNAH HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAV WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A BETTER BET AT KSAV WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS JUST INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
FIELD...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF HIGH CIGS THIS MORNING. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FEET TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CIG. INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LEANING TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING
SITES...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 021045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
FIELD...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF HIGH CIGS THIS MORNING. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FEET TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CIG. INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LEANING TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING
SITES...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 021040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG AND/OR STRATUS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TO BKN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB. OGB EXPERIENCING LIFR
CONDITIONS. IN THE NEAR TERM...CONDITIONS AT AGS...AND POSSIBLY
DNL...COULD DETERIORATE TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR...AS AN AREA OF LIFR
CONDITIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THERE COULD POSSIBLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD. WILL EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG...AND POSSIBLY STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020815
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A MYRIAD OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IN ANCHORED ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
AND SHOWERS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS ONGOING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS IN
A REGION OF CHANNELED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPANDING AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF I-95 WHERE
SLIGHT DRIER AIR AROUND 850 MB WAS NOTED. SKIES WERE CLEAR IN SOME
AREAS AND CLOUDY IN OTHERS AND IT SHOULD BE A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
LEADING INTO DAYBREAK. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FOR SOME INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95.

A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES
BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
GEORGIA WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS TO THE SE OF A LINE OF
GLENNVILE TO SAVANNAH TODAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
CONVECTIVE RAINS TO TRAIN WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE IF RAINS
ARE ONGOING AROUND THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE IN AREAS SUCH
AS DARIEN GA.

ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINAL BETWEEN DAWN AND
NOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

KSAV...SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPANDING ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY STAY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT MAY BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z IF NOT A BIT SOONER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020815
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A MYRIAD OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IN ANCHORED ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
AND SHOWERS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS ONGOING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS IN
A REGION OF CHANNELED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPANDING AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF I-95 WHERE
SLIGHT DRIER AIR AROUND 850 MB WAS NOTED. SKIES WERE CLEAR IN SOME
AREAS AND CLOUDY IN OTHERS AND IT SHOULD BE A COMPLEX MESOSCALE
LEADING INTO DAYBREAK. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FOR SOME INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95.

A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORING VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SE GEORGIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THESE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUT NW TIER OF ZONES
BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLAND TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
GEORGIA WHERE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE ALL DAY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS TO THE SE OF A LINE OF
GLENNVILE TO SAVANNAH TODAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
CONVECTIVE RAINS TO TRAIN WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE IF RAINS
ARE ONGOING AROUND THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE IN AREAS SUCH
AS DARIEN GA.

ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LESS THAN ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S NW ZONES WHILE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 80S TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SE
GEORGIA TONIGHT WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...
EVIDENCED BY A SURGE OF PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE S. INLAND AREAS OF GEORGIA WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE ALLOWING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BUCKLING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN SC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SPREADING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS AND ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. BY LATE DAY THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THUS...THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MID 90S FAR INLAND.

TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
LOW AND MID LEVELS (PWATS DROPPING BELOW 1.5") SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS HOT AND DRY. WE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PWATS
WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BETTER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE 2"
LATE WEEK WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.3" SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...THUS HIGHS WILL MAINLY REACH NO
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINAL BETWEEN DAWN AND
NOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

KSAV...SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPANDING ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY STAY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT MAY BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z IF NOT A BIT SOONER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT SAGS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH MAINTAIN 15
KT TO 20 KT WINDS OVER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER WATERS BEYOND 20
NM TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE SCRAMBLES THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHTTIME SURGES TO 15-20 KT EXPECTED WHILE DURING THE
DAYTIME THE MAIN SURGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 15 KT SEA BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT TEMPS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT... WE
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO
SOME 6 FT SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FA. AMENDED CAE/CUB/OGB.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
PREVENTED FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT AGS AND DNL SO FAR.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FA. AMENDED CAE/CUB/OGB.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
PREVENTED FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT AGS AND DNL SO FAR.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FA. AMENDED CAE/CUB/OGB.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
PREVENTED FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT AGS AND DNL SO FAR.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020524
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
124 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND EVEN POCKETS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
APPEARS TO BE INLAND SE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL ON SATURDAY. WE
RAISED SOME POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF GEORGIA
AND POP NOW REACH THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINAL BETWEEN DAWN AND
NOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

KSAV...SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPANDING ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY STAY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL BUT MAY BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z IF NOT A BIT SOONER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS COULD GET VERY CLOSE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE...BUT THE DURATION OF SUCH
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 3-4 HOURS AT BEST. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA IMPACTED...WILL CAP BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT
20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT...OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...AND NOT HOIST AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020249
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020249
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND THEN A SLOW EXPANSION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY. THE RISK FOR FOG WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OFF THE GEORGIA
BEACHES WILL BE GREATER. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
02/18Z NAM 1000 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RAP AND 21Z RUN OF THE NCEP TIME-LAGGED
NORTH AMERICAN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /NARRE-TL/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS A FOGGIER SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS...EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES. WILL INCREASE THE FOG COVERAGE QUALIFIER FROM PATCHY TO
AREAS OF ACROSS THE FAR INLAND TIER OF ZONES WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF A SAVANNAH-LUDOWICI LINE
WHERE NO MENTION OF FOG WILL BE INCLUDED.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS STILL MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL MAINTAIN 20-40 PERCENT
POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI
LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS COULD GET VERY CLOSE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE...BUT THE DURATION OF SUCH
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 3-4 HOURS AT BEST. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA IMPACTED...WILL CAP BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT
20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT...OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...AND NOT HOIST AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND THEN A SLOW EXPANSION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY. THE RISK FOR FOG WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OFF THE GEORGIA
BEACHES WILL BE GREATER. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
02/18Z NAM 1000 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RAP AND 21Z RUN OF THE NCEP TIME-LAGGED
NORTH AMERICAN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /NARRE-TL/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS A FOGGIER SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS...EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES. WILL INCREASE THE FOG COVERAGE QUALIFIER FROM PATCHY TO
AREAS OF ACROSS THE FAR INLAND TIER OF ZONES WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF A SAVANNAH-LUDOWICI LINE
WHERE NO MENTION OF FOG WILL BE INCLUDED.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS STILL MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL MAINTAIN 20-40 PERCENT
POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI
LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS COULD GET VERY CLOSE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE...BUT THE DURATION OF SUCH
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 3-4 HOURS AT BEST. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA IMPACTED...WILL CAP BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT
20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT...OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...AND NOT HOIST AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO
20-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON
HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TO TREND. IF THE H3R BEGINS TO COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP...THEN AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND SLOW EXPANSION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. THE
RISK FOR FOG WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY FAR SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST LEVELS COULD GET IN THE 6.9-7.0 FT
MLLW RANGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT 7.0 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
BREACHED...SO HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
VERY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH TIDES FALLING JUST SHORT OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE NEED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO
20-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON
HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TO TREND. IF THE H3R BEGINS TO COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP...THEN AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND SLOW EXPANSION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. THE
RISK FOR FOG WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY FAR SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST LEVELS COULD GET IN THE 6.9-7.0 FT
MLLW RANGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT 7.0 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
BREACHED...SO HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
VERY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH TIDES FALLING JUST SHORT OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE NEED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO
20-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON
HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TO TREND. IF THE H3R BEGINS TO COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP...THEN AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND SLOW EXPANSION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. THE
RISK FOR FOG WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY FAR SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST LEVELS COULD GET IN THE 6.9-7.0 FT
MLLW RANGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT 7.0 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
BREACHED...SO HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
VERY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH TIDES FALLING JUST SHORT OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE NEED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO
20-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON
HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TO TREND. IF THE H3R BEGINS TO COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP...THEN AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND SLOW EXPANSION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. THE
RISK FOR FOG WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY FAR SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST LEVELS COULD GET IN THE 6.9-7.0 FT
MLLW RANGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT 7.0 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
BREACHED...SO HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
VERY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH TIDES FALLING JUST SHORT OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE NEED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 3-4 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING INTENSIFIES AND INTERACTS WILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE
EMPHATIC ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WHILE THE H3R IS LESS SO. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO
20-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HILTON
HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE...HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TO TREND. IF THE H3R BEGINS TO COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP...THEN AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION AND SLOW EXPANSION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. THE
RISK FOR FOG WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSEST TO THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY FAR SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME THIS FAR OUT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSTM IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS ENDED. PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KCHS/KSAV.
THE RISK FOR LOW STRATUS LOOKS HIGHEST AT KSAV AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING TAKES HOLD AN INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
FOG IS MORE LIKELY AT KCHS. THE DEGREE OF JETTING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW IMPACTFUL EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A TRENDED YET CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR CIGS
09-14Z WITH VERY LIGHT FOG AT KSAV...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
VSBYS FROM 09-12Z WILL BE SHOWN AT KCHS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST LEVELS COULD GET IN THE 6.9-7.0 FT
MLLW RANGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT 7.0 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
BREACHED...SO HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS
VERY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH TIDES FALLING JUST SHORT OF 7.0 FT MLLW. THE NEED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCHS 012134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
534 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. LARGE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISION IS
DRIVING DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN BRYAN COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN
EVANS AND NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHEST IN THIS AREA. POPS INCREASED TO
80-90 PERCENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 012134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
534 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. LARGE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISION IS
DRIVING DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN BRYAN COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN
EVANS AND NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHEST IN THIS AREA. POPS INCREASED TO
80-90 PERCENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012035
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH ONLY A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS SPREAD ABOUT THE REGION.  WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS OCCURRING IN THE MTN
VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELING.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH SKY IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
SEABREEZE FRONT ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE
IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF
ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND
WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
SEABREEZE FRONT ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE
IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF
ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND
WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. AS
PER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLESTON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE. SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER DIMINISH
BUT STRATUS AND SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE. FOG CHANCES LOOK BEST INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT
PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS AROUND ALLENDALE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF THE REGION.
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FURTHER DECREASING COVERAGE BY TUESDAY. POPS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FURTHER INLAND AT TIMES...BUT IT WOULDN/T
REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS TO WARRANT
RAISING POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM BUT
FOR NOW WE KEPT CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SUCH LEVELS /20 KT AND 5
FT/.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF SURGING IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...BUT
COULD MARGINALLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST FETCH AS
WELL...INCREASING TO 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND MAINLY 4-5 FT BEYOND. 6
FT SEAS COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STARTING MONDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING WE DID NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LAST NIGHT AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE PREFER
NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND
PERIGEE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 011842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SEABREEZE FRONT
ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS ALSO GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...IF ENTRAINED INTO STORMS. TSTM
THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST REMAINS LOW AS SOUNDINGS
APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR
NEAR THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE
INDICATED VCSH AT OGB INTO THE EVENING. AS PER GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z NAM12
INDICATES LITTLE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDLANDS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO NOT BUYING
INTO THAT SOLUTION ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS AND LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN INLAND STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ANTICIPATED
FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET
FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z NAM12
INDICATES LITTLE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDLANDS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO NOT BUYING
INTO THAT SOLUTION ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS AND LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...MAINLY AT KSAV...WHILE KCHS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS SC CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN INLAND STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ANTICIPATED
FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET
FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z NAM12
INDICATES LITTLE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDLANDS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO NOT BUYING
INTO THAT SOLUTION ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS AND LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A
GROUP IN THE TAF DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN INLAND STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ANTICIPATED
FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET
FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z NAM12
INDICATES LITTLE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDLANDS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO NOT BUYING
INTO THAT SOLUTION ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS AND LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A
GROUP IN THE TAF DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN INLAND STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ANTICIPATED
FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET
FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z NAM12
INDICATES LITTLE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDLANDS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO NOT BUYING
INTO THAT SOLUTION ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS AND LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A
GROUP IN THE TAF DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN INLAND STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ANTICIPATED
FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET
FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011304
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO OSCILLATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK FRONT TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. ALREADY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND
DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT DRY...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
OSCILLATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AT 13Z...WHICH
COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT AGS/DNL/OGB
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 011304
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO OSCILLATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK FRONT TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. ALREADY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND
DRIER. KEPT THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT DRY...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES...SO WENT
CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR OGB. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
OSCILLATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AT 13Z...WHICH
COULD AFFECT AGS/DNL/OGB. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT AGS/DNL/OGB
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE THE BEST
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE EAST OF
I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COMPONENT
IN THE MIX BETWEEN STABLE CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-16 AND UNSTABLE CLOUDS
ALONG THE BORDER OF THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...OVERNIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT AND EXPECT
CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING TO STRATOCU WHICH WILL BE
BROKEN IN MVFR RANGE PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A GROUP IN THE TAF
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE THUS CLOUDS/CIGS AT
ABOUT ANY LEVEL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE THE BEST
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE EAST OF
I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COMPONENT
IN THE MIX BETWEEN STABLE CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-16 AND UNSTABLE CLOUDS
ALONG THE BORDER OF THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...OVERNIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT AND EXPECT
CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING TO STRATOCU WHICH WILL BE
BROKEN IN MVFR RANGE PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A GROUP IN THE TAF
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE THUS CLOUDS/CIGS AT
ABOUT ANY LEVEL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE THE BEST
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE EAST OF
I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COMPONENT
IN THE MIX BETWEEN STABLE CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-16 AND UNSTABLE CLOUDS
ALONG THE BORDER OF THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...OVERNIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT AND EXPECT
CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING TO STRATOCU WHICH WILL BE
BROKEN IN MVFR RANGE PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A GROUP IN THE TAF
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE THUS CLOUDS/CIGS AT
ABOUT ANY LEVEL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE THE BEST
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE EAST OF
I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COMPONENT
IN THE MIX BETWEEN STABLE CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-16 AND UNSTABLE CLOUDS
ALONG THE BORDER OF THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...OVERNIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT AND EXPECT
CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING TO STRATOCU WHICH WILL BE
BROKEN IN MVFR RANGE PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A GROUP IN THE TAF
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK THIS FAR OUT.

KCHS...12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE THUS CLOUDS/CIGS AT
ABOUT ANY LEVEL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT INLAND OR SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
TONIGHT BUT TIMING OR EVENTUAL COVERAGE VERY UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 011041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WEAK FRONT TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THAT REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG
WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. MET HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY RELEGATED MAINLY
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA AND THE SOUTH COAST OF SC. STILL
SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT THIS COULD SHIFT NORTH INTO THE AGS/DNL/OGB
TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL/OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DRY WEATHER HAS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE
CLOSER TO THE BEACHES AND U.S. 17 CORRIDOR NEARING DAYBREAK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA PRODUCES AREAS OF
STRATUS AND STRATOCU AND EVEN PATCHY FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE
THE BEST DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE
EAST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KCHS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KCHS. THE DEEP MOISTURE AT KSAV HAS RESULTED IN
STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND
EVEN LIFR AT TIMES. KCHS COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS BREAKING OUT
FROM NEAR DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND S OF I-16. DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT KSAV 15Z-19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DRY WEATHER HAS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE
CLOSER TO THE BEACHES AND U.S. 17 CORRIDOR NEARING DAYBREAK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA PRODUCES AREAS OF
STRATUS AND STRATOCU AND EVEN PATCHY FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BUT MODELS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY. PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO BLANKET COASTAL AREAS AND ALL OF SE GEORGIA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-16. THE MESOSCALE TO START THE DAY IS QUITE COMPLEX WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST TO THE NORTH WHILE
THE BEST DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RESIDING TO THE
EAST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PROGGED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PLENTY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION
ON COMPLEX BOUNDARIES. A NARROW CHANNEL OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E IS
NOTED THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MORE
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY PROGS AGREE WITH THIS
GENERAL REGION FOR A DIURNAL CONVECTION MAXIMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR ALL ZONES
TOUCHING AND WEST OF I-95. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS BEST
OVER WESTERN ZONES WHILE MID LEVELS ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THE CLOUDS AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FAIL TO
REACH 90...EXCEPT NW ZONES.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING
THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TRICKY FORECAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
FLARE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW MODELS PUSHING
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE INCREASED POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH TO TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA WILL DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 1.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY GIVEN HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE THE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND. PWATS WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL 2" FOR EARLY AUGUST BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KCHS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KCHS. THE DEEP MOISTURE AT KSAV HAS RESULTED IN
STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND
EVEN LIFR AT TIMES. KCHS COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS BREAKING OUT
FROM NEAR DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND S OF I-16. DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED WITH TEMPO
SHOWERS AT KSAV 15Z-19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND PEAK THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
GULF STREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING
IS ANTICIPATED FROM GRAYS REEF WATERS SEAWARD WHERE 20 KT
SUSTAINED IS A GOOD BET FOR A FEW LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15-20
KT OR LESS. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH THE
CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ARE DECREASING DUE TO WIND
DIRECTIONS MORE FROM THE SOUTH. TIDES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR DID NOT
REACH 7 FT FRIDAY EVENING...AN INDICATION THAT THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DESPITE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WEAK FRONT TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THAT REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG
WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. MET HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WEAK FRONT TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THAT REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG
WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. MET HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010724
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WIL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010724
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WIL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.

TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010524
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
124 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE PEE DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT CHANCES MIGHT BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
AND RIGHT ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KCHS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV AND KCHS. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS BREAKING OUT FROM NEAR DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND S OF I-16. DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT KSAV 15Z-19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE
COAST LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010524
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
124 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE PEE DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT CHANCES MIGHT BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
AND RIGHT ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KCHS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV AND KCHS. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS BREAKING OUT FROM NEAR DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND S OF I-16. DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT KSAV 15Z-19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE
COAST LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE PEE DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BENEATH
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT CHANCES MIGHT BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE PEE DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BENEATH
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT CHANCES MIGHT BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PEE
DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND COULD ACTUALLY RISE A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY REACHING LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BENEATH MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PEE
DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND COULD ACTUALLY RISE A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY REACHING LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BENEATH MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PEE
DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND COULD ACTUALLY RISE A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY REACHING LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BENEATH MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGIONS LOSES SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PEE
DEE...THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO...THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.

EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TONIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...AND COULD ACTUALLY RISE A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY REACHING LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BENEATH MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST INTRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S AFTER 14Z UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REACH
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20
NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
750 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...- KCAE 312350
WRKAVN

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SRN CSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NW THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM 10 TO 20 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. LOOKS LIKE TIMING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. HAVE KEPT A
BRIEF PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FOR SHRA AT OGB...BOT
EXPECT REMAINING TAF SITES TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FEATURE COULD
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BE SMALL AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG AT OGB/AGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 22Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE OGB AREA THROUGH 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 22Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE OGB AREA THROUGH 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 22Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE OGB AREA THROUGH 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 22Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE OGB AREA THROUGH 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINIMAL FAIR WX CU PRESENT.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WHERE SOME ENHANCED CU PERSISTS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION...THUS DID INTRODUCE A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINIMAL FAIR WX CU PRESENT.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WHERE SOME ENHANCED CU PERSISTS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION...THUS DID INTRODUCE A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KCHS 311934
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST
SC/GA AS AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER THE EAST COAST.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WE KEEP AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH/JET
DIVERGENCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
FROM WET MICROBURSTS. LOWS LIKELY MODIFIED BY RAIN BUT GENERALLY
THINK MID 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE MILDER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO
LINGER TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGER OVER
THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG AT THE
TERMS TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE 25 KT GUSTS COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT
AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311934
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST
SC/GA AS AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER THE EAST COAST.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WE KEEP AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH/JET
DIVERGENCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
FROM WET MICROBURSTS. LOWS LIKELY MODIFIED BY RAIN BUT GENERALLY
THINK MID 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE MILDER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
2.30-2.40 INCHES OR VERY NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF 2.42 INCHES FOR 1
AUGUST AT KCHS. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE VENTING AND A WEAK MEAN
WIND IN THE 925-700 HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH A
RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL
SETUP...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING WITH EACH RUN. ODDS FAVOR
IN THE CORRIDOR BOUNDED BY A METTER-HAMPTON-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-
HILTON HEAD-SAVANNAH-HINESVILLE LINE FOR THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF THIS AREA COULD LIKELY HANDLE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT 1-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED
3 IN/HR OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT AREA WIDE AND A
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES QUALIFIER WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS. AS STRONG TSTM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND INSTABILITY
WANES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT NORTHERN
AREAS TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S COAST/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT EDGING BACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
POPS 20-40 PERCENT LOOK FINE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO
LINGER TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGER OVER
THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG AT THE
TERMS TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT INLAND WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY OVER THE GA WATERS WHERE 25 KT GUSTS COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
ABOUT 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM...POSSIBLY NEAR 5 FT
AROUND 60 NM OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TOPPING OUT 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT AT TIMES OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SC COAST FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 311856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE
MIDLANDS TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS
IN ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING
THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 311856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE
MIDLANDS TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS
IN ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING
THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 311856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE
MIDLANDS TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS
IN ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING
THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KGSP 311826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE MIDLANDS
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE MIDLANDS
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE MIDLANDS
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE MIDLANDS
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KCHS 311707
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND SETTLE OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING INLAND ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH NEAR
INTERSTATE 16. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FIRE THERE AND
NORTHWARD UP THE SC COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING. SO FAR
STORMS HAVE ENOUGH MOTION SO THE FLOOD RISK IS LOW BUT THIS MIGHT
CHANGE LATER AS STORMS TRY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MULTI-CELLULAR
AND POSSIBLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS ALONG BOUNDARIES.

LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW- MOVING STORMS AND WITH PWAT VALUES UNSEASONABLY HIGH OVER
2 INCHES THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD /OTHER
THAN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING/ AS THE MODIFIED CHS
SOUNDING FOR A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S YIELDS OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1400 J/KG. WE WILL MENTION A LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND CONSIDER INCLUDING MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
FORTUNATELY TIDES ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE FLOODING IN COASTAL URBAN LOCALES LIKE DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND WITH
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INLAND FRONTAL TROUGH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AND ONCE
AGAIN THERE MAY BE SOME DOWNPOURS FROM WARMER PROCESS CONVECTION
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. AN
EAST COAST TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE A WEAK FRONT SITS ALONG
OUR COAST. THE 00Z GFS CAME IN DRIER WITH 1.5" PWATS SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AND FAR EASTERN GA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF RETAINS A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. GIVEN OUR
ONGOING WETTER FORECAST...WE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE
BUT MAINTAINED 50-60 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GA SATURDAY WITH 40-
50 FARTHER NORTH. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS DRIER REGARDLESS OF MODEL
SO WE PUSHED VALUES DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. MONDAY COULD BE
COMPLETELY DRY BASED ON THE GFS...BUT SINCE THE ECMWF STILL HANGS
ONTO MORE MOISTURE WE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT
21Z...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO LINGER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGER OVER THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG AT THE TERMS TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS OR SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP TO THE NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MAINLY SW FLOW WILL SEE SOME
SURGING BY THIS EVENING OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. WE BUMPED WIND
SPEED CLOSER TO 15 KT WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
WE DO NOT THINK THE SURGE WILL BE TOO STRONG ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST GIVEN THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. OF
COURSE...CONVECTION COULD SCRAMBLE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TONIGHT
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS
WELL OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT NIGHT DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT 10-15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. SEAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 5 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER OUTER PORTIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO OF
NOTE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...
MORE SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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