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000
FXUS62 KGSP 200234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER AL/GA...WHERE
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ELEVATED STRATIFORM RETURNS. UPPER DIVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SAID DIVERGENCE
SPREADS OVER OUR WRN ZONES A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. REVISED POPS TO
MATCH THE EXPECTED ONSET. 00Z NAM NOT LOOKING AS WEDGY TMRW
MRNG...EVIDENTLY A RESULT OF LESS QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS THRU DAYBREAK
PER LATEST OBS AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT. OBS TRENDS INDICATE
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS DOING PERHAPS AN EVEN BETTER JOB OF LIMITING
COOLING THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEW MIN TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
LINE WITH EXPECTATION FOR A WEAKER WEDGE. THIS REDUCED THE COVERAGE
OF WINTRY WX EVEN MORE.

630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. PTYPE IS STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO
FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION
CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR
SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON
SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE
WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS
DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN
FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH...WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KGSP 200234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER AL/GA...WHERE
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ELEVATED STRATIFORM RETURNS. UPPER DIVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SAID DIVERGENCE
SPREADS OVER OUR WRN ZONES A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. REVISED POPS TO
MATCH THE EXPECTED ONSET. 00Z NAM NOT LOOKING AS WEDGY TMRW
MRNG...EVIDENTLY A RESULT OF LESS QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS THRU DAYBREAK
PER LATEST OBS AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT. OBS TRENDS INDICATE
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS DOING PERHAPS AN EVEN BETTER JOB OF LIMITING
COOLING THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEW MIN TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
LINE WITH EXPECTATION FOR A WEAKER WEDGE. THIS REDUCED THE COVERAGE
OF WINTRY WX EVEN MORE.

630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. PTYPE IS STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO
FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION
CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR
SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON
SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE
WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS
DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN
FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH...WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 200216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
916 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
916 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 200108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE
RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE
RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 200011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. REVISED POPS THRU TONIGHT/TMRW PER
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES RESULTED IN THOSE. PTYPE IS
STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART
BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES
BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE
MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS
STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST
AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   70%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 200011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. REVISED POPS THRU TONIGHT/TMRW PER
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES RESULTED IN THOSE. PTYPE IS
STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART
BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES
BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE
MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS
STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST
AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   70%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 200011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. REVISED POPS THRU TONIGHT/TMRW PER
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES RESULTED IN THOSE. PTYPE IS
STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART
BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES
BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE
MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS
STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST
AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   70%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 200011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...18Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE IN FAVOR
OF CAD DEVELOPMENT VS THEIR COUNTERPARTS FROM 12Z. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE OF THE NAM. REVISED POPS THRU TONIGHT/TMRW PER
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES RESULTED IN THOSE. PTYPE IS
STILL A TRICKY FCST. I DO FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART
BEFORE THE LLVL WARM ADVECTION CREATES ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE TO
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OR SLEET. I DID REGENERATE THE WX TYPES
BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AND ON SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS...AND AS ONE
MIGHT EXPECT A BIT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RESULTED. HOWEVER MODEL QPF IS
STILL LIGHT AND TEMPS DO WARM ENOUGH THRU THE MRNG TO CHANGE MOST
AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SNOW ACCUMS REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE AT MOST ON RIDGETOPS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT SPEAK FOR THE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK LIKELY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
RAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WEDGE IN
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING SCHEME. AS A RESULT I HAVE FAVORED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
WEDGE FORMATION I AVOIDED GOING BELOW 020...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP IT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ANYWAY. NELY...SLIGHTLY VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD IF THE WEDGE DOES FORM.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIKE KCLT...WITH A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL VFR NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. INCIPIENT CAD WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL SITES AT LEAST BY PROLONGING THE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND KEEPING WINDS NELY /EXCEPT SE AT KAVL/.
INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY WHICH IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE. AT BOTH KAVL AND KHKY
HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PTYPES WHEN THE WARM LAYER IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FZRA/PL AT THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT AS -RASN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   70%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KCAE 192343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 192316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH
MODEL PWAT PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10
INCHES BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 3-4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-HARLEYVILLE-
NORTH CHARLESTON BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL...SOUTH
AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BASED ON SHORT
  TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 192316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH
MODEL PWAT PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10
INCHES BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 3-4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-HARLEYVILLE-
NORTH CHARLESTON BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL...SOUTH
AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BASED ON SHORT
  TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KGSP 192101
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...BROUGHT IN CLOUD COVER A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY
THRU EARLY EVENING AS CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. OTHERWISE...FCST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL TOUCH UP TEMP TRENDS SHORTLY BASED ON
THE HRLY OBS.

AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NNE
THIS AFTN BEFORE VEERING TO NEAR DUE E TONIGHT...AND BACKING TO NE
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOME VARIABILITY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KCHS 192052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. THEN...CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE E/NE AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN SUPPORTED BY
FOCUSED/DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEPICTED BY PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W/SW TO E/NE. PRIMARY
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN. DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
RAIN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SPREADING
INTO AREAS FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE EARLIEST ONSET OF HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
FOR THESE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY...WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN COULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...THUS OVERNIGHT POPS ARE GRADUATED
FROM CATEGORICAL CENTRAL/NORTH TO CHANCE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS ISN/T
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE CONTINUE
TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 06Z- 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD...AND AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS INCLUDING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT
LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO
TIDES...GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS
AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33







000
FXUS62 KCHS 192052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. THEN...CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE E/NE AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN SUPPORTED BY
FOCUSED/DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEPICTED BY PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W/SW TO E/NE. PRIMARY
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN. DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
RAIN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SPREADING
INTO AREAS FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE EARLIEST ONSET OF HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
FOR THESE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY...WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN COULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...THUS OVERNIGHT POPS ARE GRADUATED
FROM CATEGORICAL CENTRAL/NORTH TO CHANCE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS ISN/T
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE CONTINUE
TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 06Z- 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD...AND AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS INCLUDING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT
LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO
TIDES...GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS
AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACRS THE
TN VLY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A 1025-1028 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. A WEAK SFC
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF DEEPER LAYER RH CROSSING THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL
TROF. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ON A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT...WITH GENERALLY
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MTNS AND LWR
PIEDMONT...AND A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE STILL LOOKS TO BE P-TYPE IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC
FOOTHILLS...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MOISTENING PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH WETBULB EFFECTS
CREATING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK OMEGA AND
MARGINAL ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION...THERE MAY BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL...ESP AT ONSET OF PRECIP...PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. USING A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH THE TOP-DOWN
APPROACH...I DO GET A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP DURING THE WEE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW BY DAYBREAK. A LIGHT
COATING OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ABOVE 3500 FT FROM
HAYWOOD COUNTY NORTHEAST. THIS ISN/T ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WINTRY MIX AND SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS). OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE.

SATURDAY...AS THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS...TAKING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT...POPS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. FCST SNDGS SHOW THE SFC LAYER
WARMING...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE WEAK OR EVENT MORE OF A
"LOOK-ALIKE" EVENT...AS PRECIP JUST TOO LIGHT TO HOLD A WEDGE
IN...GIVEN PARENT HIGH WEAK AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE FAVORED AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO I
STILL UNDERCUT MOS BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S
ABOVE 3500 FT...AND MID-UPR 40S BELOW 3500 FT...INCLUDING PIEDMONT.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THEN TEMPS COULD BUST BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...AND INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD
RESULT SCT LIGHT RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER AND SCT RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR DAMMING APPEARS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NE
SFC WINDS WITH 4 MB NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY. THE PERIOD
FROM 6Z-15Z SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...GENERALLY
AROUND 0.25/3 HRS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE U30S TO L40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS COULD
DIP TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SPOTTY FZRA IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RULE THE WEATHER. SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEADY NE WINDS AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS RISING OVER
MORNING LOWS BY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THIS APPROACH WILL PLACE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE U30S TO L40S...PERFECTLY PLACED COOLER THAN WARM
BIAS GUIDANCE DURING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
WEAK/MOIST ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT REGIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...AS COLD FRONT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. A CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THUS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL-LIQUID. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ANYTHING THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS.

RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SPEED MAX UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF WED.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETREAT DURING THIS TIME...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE...ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD BE QUITE LOW-IMPACT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SPELLING MODERATING TEMPS BY
DAY 7...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER IN CLOUDY/PERIODIC IN-
SITU COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW UPPER HEIGHTS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 191839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 191806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM...FOR THE 1730 UTC UPDATE...I UPDATED THE NEAR TERM
GRIDS THRU SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOME CHANGES TO THE
DEPICTION OF WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NC MTNS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SO NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. I WILL FINALIZE
TEMPS/POPS/WX WITH THE NEXT UPDATE (2030 UTC).

AS OF 930 AM...FOR THE 1430 UTC UPDATE...FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. I TWEAKED SKY COVER THRU NOON TO REFLECT MORE SUNSHINE PER
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WNWLY FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LOWERING CIGS TO
SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...THERE IS A CHC FOR SPOTTY -
RA AND SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR -RA...BUT
KEEPING IT VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NE
THRU THE AFTN...THEN E/SE OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LVL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN/FZRA MAY FALL AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...
BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP AT KAVL...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE MVFR CIGS CREEPING IN FROM THE SW TOWARD THE UPSTATE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DOES PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...I KEPT ALL THE OTHER SITES VFR.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP RESTRICTIONS. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...FOR THE 1430 UTC UPDATE...FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. I TWEAKED SKY COVER THRU NOON TO REFLECT MORE SUNSHINE PER
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WNWLY FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...FOR THE 1430 UTC UPDATE...FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. I TWEAKED SKY COVER THRU NOON TO REFLECT MORE SUNSHINE PER
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WNWLY FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...FOR THE 1430 UTC UPDATE...FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. I TWEAKED SKY COVER THRU NOON TO REFLECT MORE SUNSHINE PER
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WNWLY FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...FOR THE 1430 UTC UPDATE...FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. I TWEAKED SKY COVER THRU NOON TO REFLECT MORE SUNSHINE PER
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WNWLY FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 191442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT
OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING TX WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
FROM W/SW TO E/NE TODAY...PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER COULD TRANSLATE
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING FOR AT LEAST BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND REQUIRED LITTLE/NO ADJUSTMENT WITHIN THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. SEAS LESS THAN 2
FT SEAS MOST OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT
OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING TX WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
FROM W/SW TO E/NE TODAY...PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER COULD TRANSLATE
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING FOR AT LEAST BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND REQUIRED LITTLE/NO ADJUSTMENT WITHIN THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. SEAS LESS THAN 2
FT SEAS MOST OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KGSP 191153
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 191153
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. ARAS OVER THE
NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON SAT
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT
MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS
FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS VFR.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 191129 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. ARAS OVER THE NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN ON SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING
LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON
SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 191129 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ON SAT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/P-TYPE
ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. ARAS OVER THE NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN ON SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING
LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON
SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 191114
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. ARAS OVER THE NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN ON SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING
LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON
SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 191114
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER TO PRESERVE GREATER GUSTS
AT NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALLOWED TO START A
FEW HOURS EARLIER AT SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SKY COVER WAS REDUCED EARLY PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE MODELS SHOW A
RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF
STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. ARAS OVER THE NOTHERN NC MTNS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN ON SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS DIPS INTO THE FREEZING
LEVEL WHILE MID-LAYER WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON
SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE CAD WITH
DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING
LVL...SUGGESTING ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS ATT. WITH
DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED
POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING
DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE
NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS FAVORS
VFR. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL AND THE
SC SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL AT
KAVL BEFORE A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AT DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER FORM NNW TO SE BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 191107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITING EARLY MORNING FOG EXCEPT AT
AGS WHERE BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 13Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITING EARLY MORNING FOG EXCEPT AT
AGS WHERE BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 13Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 190945
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE STARTING OFF MILDER THIS MORNING.
1000 MB TO 850 MB RH IS ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLOSER TO 5C ALONG WITH THICKER PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM
TIME TO TIME. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 38-43 DEGREE RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK...COOLEST NORTH OF I-16 AND INLAND FROM THE
BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON CORRIDOR.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A MIX OF CONVECTIVE
AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. PERIODS
OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM CLOUD FIELD PROGS
INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK... THINNING LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN THE DAY. WE
MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX TEMP FORECAST
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 190945
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE STARTING OFF MILDER THIS MORNING.
1000 MB TO 850 MB RH IS ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLOSER TO 5C ALONG WITH THICKER PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM
TIME TO TIME. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 38-43 DEGREE RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK...COOLEST NORTH OF I-16 AND INLAND FROM THE
BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON CORRIDOR.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A MIX OF CONVECTIVE
AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. PERIODS
OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM CLOUD FIELD PROGS
INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK... THINNING LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN THE DAY. WE
MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX TEMP FORECAST
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 190945
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE STARTING OFF MILDER THIS MORNING.
1000 MB TO 850 MB RH IS ELEVATED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLOSER TO 5C ALONG WITH THICKER PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM
TIME TO TIME. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 38-43 DEGREE RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK...COOLEST NORTH OF I-16 AND INLAND FROM THE
BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON CORRIDOR.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A MIX OF CONVECTIVE
AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. PERIODS
OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM CLOUD FIELD PROGS
INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK... THINNING LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN THE DAY. WE
MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX TEMP FORECAST
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KGSP 190916 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE
MODELS SHOW A RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
THERMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE CAD WITH DECENT WARM
NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING...SUGGESTING ALL
LIQUID PRECIP ATT. WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD
WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHNACES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 190916 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE
MODELS SHOW A RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SURFACE PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER
THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
EAST. MEANWHILE...A CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND
THIS WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SC PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE
BETTER UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT
MORNING. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
MENTIONED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NC PIEDMONT WITH 40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS FARTHER NE.

SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS
1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST) UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE SOLID CHANCE/LIKLEY RANGE BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER
THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
THERMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE CAD WITH DECENT WARM
NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING...SUGGESTING ALL
LIQUID PRECIP ATT. WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD
WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHNACES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 190913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE
MODELS SHOW A RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZCZC GSPWRKSHT 000
TTAA00 KCAE 190851

AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...A
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND THIS WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SC
PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE BETTER UPPER
FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING WILL PROVIDE
BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERMAL PROFILE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH
40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS FARTHER NE. SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS 1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH DRY FORECAST UNDER THE
RIDGE...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LOW END
CHANCE RANGE BY SUN NIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND
BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL
RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
THERMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE CAD WITH DECENT WARM
NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING...SUGGESTING ALL
LIQUID PRECIP ATT. WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD
WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHNACES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 190854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM EST FRIDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER TN AND NC IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF TO THE THE OH RIVER VALLEY.THE
MODELS SHOW A RATHER NOISE PATTERN OF VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL...DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
NE SURFACE WINDS. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SETTING UP OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT
STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION AT THE UPPER
END OF THE MOIST LAYER...HAVE EITHER A WARM NOSE ALOFT OR WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE LOCATION. EXAMINING BOTH A TOP DOWN APPROACH AND THE BOURGOIUN
METHOD...AND BLENDING THE NAM AND GFS...WOULD YIELD A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN SNOW.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT WOULD STILL WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE BE GREAT ENOUGH. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SO MARGINAL FOR ICE VERSUS SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A MENTION OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MADE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZCZC GSPWRKSHT 000
TTAA00 KCAE 190851

AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ON SAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE REASONABLE CHANGES TO THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON SAT...SHEARING OUT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE BY SUN AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CAD WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA ON SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...A
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SC COAST AND THIS WILL AID IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OUR SE ZONES OF THE CWA. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SC
PIEDMONT AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WHILE BETTER UPPER
FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER FORCING WILL PROVIDE
BETTER LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERMAL PROFILE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS ON SAT
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE MENTIONED LOW END
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH
40/50S ELSEWHERE ON SAT MORNING...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
BY SAT 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS COAST PULLS FARTHER NE. SUN...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
WEAK CAD REGIME OVER THE REGION AS 1028 MB HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH DRY FORECAST UNDER THE
RIDGE...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LOW END
CHANCE RANGE BY SUN NIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND
BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW SETS UP. NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT GIVEN WARMER THERMALPROFILE. TEMPS ON SAT WILL
RUN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
THERMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. A LOW IN THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY WED. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CAD OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH A CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AT THE SAME TIME. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE CAD WITH DECENT WARM
NOSE ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE FREEZING...SUGGESTING ALL
LIQUID PRECIP ATT. WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE (0.25-0.75")PER 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...RAMPING DOWN INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THRU MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE NC COAST PULLS FARTHER NE AWAY AND THE CAD
WEAKENS.

TUE...MODELS AGREE THAT IN SITU CAD AND MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
KY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER CHNACES LOOK MINIMAL GIVEN ZERO
SBCAPE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAA FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY TUE NIGHT
OVER THE NC MTNS. WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PREVAILING CAA NW
FLOW...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 190602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 190602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190522
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV GUIDANCE. CLOUD OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

915 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER CROSSING THE MTNS FROM THE TENN VALLEY
IS BREAKING UP UPSTREAM AS MODELS SUGGESTED...BEING IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DOWNSLOPING
HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF AN IMPACT...AS THE CLOUDS THAT FILLED IN OVER
THE CWFA AFTER SUNSET NOW ARE BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL FOR A COUPLE MORE HRS BUT SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY MRNG. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. TEMPS THRU THE LATE EVENING SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED...BUT
PREVIOUS MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

630 PM UPDATE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 190522
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV GUIDANCE. CLOUD OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

915 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER CROSSING THE MTNS FROM THE TENN VALLEY
IS BREAKING UP UPSTREAM AS MODELS SUGGESTED...BEING IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DOWNSLOPING
HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF AN IMPACT...AS THE CLOUDS THAT FILLED IN OVER
THE CWFA AFTER SUNSET NOW ARE BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL FOR A COUPLE MORE HRS BUT SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY MRNG. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. TEMPS THRU THE LATE EVENING SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED...BUT
PREVIOUS MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

630 PM UPDATE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AROUND DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THEN BE
THE DOMINATE CLOUD GROUP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE
LOW. LOW VFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HOWEVER.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND WINDS VEER FROM N
TO NE. CIRRUS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AT KAVL AND THE SC
SITES...WITH PRECIPITATION AS WELL. RAINFALL COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT
KAVL AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 190515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190302
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 190302
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVER CAE/CUB AND NOT
MAKE IT TO AGS/DNL/OGB. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT FOG PRONE AGS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER CROSSING THE MTNS FROM THE TENN VALLEY
IS BREAKING UP UPSTREAM AS MODELS SUGGESTED...BEING IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DOWNSLOPING
HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF AN IMPACT...AS THE CLOUDS THAT FILLED IN OVER
THE CWFA AFTER SUNSET NOW ARE BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL FOR A COUPLE MORE HRS BUT SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY MRNG. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. TEMPS THRU THE LATE EVENING SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED...BUT
PREVIOUS MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

630 PM UPDATE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 050 WILL PASS THRU
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
PERIODS OF CIGS WILL BE SEEN UNTIL THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THE BULK
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE TENN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE ERODED BY
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT SCT 050-070 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SEEN THRU MRNG. WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW-N BY LATE EVENING AS
MIXING CEASES...VEERING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT REMAINING LIGHT THRU
THE DAY. KAVL IS AN EXCEPTION...REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RISING OUT OF THE GULF STATES LATE
FRI.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 190232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER CROSSING THE MTNS FROM THE TENN VALLEY
IS BREAKING UP UPSTREAM AS MODELS SUGGESTED...BEING IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DOWNSLOPING
HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF AN IMPACT...AS THE CLOUDS THAT FILLED IN OVER
THE CWFA AFTER SUNSET NOW ARE BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL FOR A COUPLE MORE HRS BUT SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY MRNG. REVISED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. TEMPS THRU THE LATE EVENING SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED...BUT
PREVIOUS MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

630 PM UPDATE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 050 WILL PASS THRU
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
PERIODS OF CIGS WILL BE SEEN UNTIL THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THE BULK
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE TENN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE ERODED BY
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT SCT 050-070 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SEEN THRU MRNG. WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW-N BY LATE EVENING AS
MIXING CEASES...VEERING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT REMAINING LIGHT THRU
THE DAY. KAVL IS AN EXCEPTION...REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RISING OUT OF THE GULF STATES LATE
FRI.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KCHS 190222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE
  MORE RURAL AREAS OF UPPER AND LOWER CHARLESTON COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST
  OF HIGHWAY 17 AS WELL AS THE RURAL AREAS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY AWAY
  FROM THE BROAD RIVER/INLAND WATERWAYS.
* MODIFIED HOURLY DEWPOINTS BASED ON A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND
  RAP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 190222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE
  MORE RURAL AREAS OF UPPER AND LOWER CHARLESTON COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST
  OF HIGHWAY 17 AS WELL AS THE RURAL AREAS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY AWAY
  FROM THE BROAD RIVER/INLAND WATERWAYS.
* MODIFIED HOURLY DEWPOINTS BASED ON A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND
  RAP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 190222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE
  MORE RURAL AREAS OF UPPER AND LOWER CHARLESTON COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST
  OF HIGHWAY 17 AS WELL AS THE RURAL AREAS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY AWAY
  FROM THE BROAD RIVER/INLAND WATERWAYS.
* MODIFIED HOURLY DEWPOINTS BASED ON A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND
  RAP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 190222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE
  MORE RURAL AREAS OF UPPER AND LOWER CHARLESTON COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST
  OF HIGHWAY 17 AS WELL AS THE RURAL AREAS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY AWAY
  FROM THE BROAD RIVER/INLAND WATERWAYS.
* MODIFIED HOURLY DEWPOINTS BASED ON A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND
  RAP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 190001
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...REVISED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER AND WINDS PER LATEST
GUIDANCE THOUGH NO WHOLESALE CHANGES RESULTED. SEEING A LOT OF
CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA /OVER THE TENN VALLEY/ BUT
GUIDANCE APPARENTLY IS PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPING TO
BREAK UP THESE CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO CROSS THE MTNS. THAT EVOLUTION
IS LIKELY SO KEPT MOST AREAS IN PCLDY RANGE TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS INDEED IS ABLE TO HAPPEN.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 050 WILL PASS THRU
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
PERIODS OF CIGS WILL BE SEEN UNTIL THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THE BULK
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE TENN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE ERODED BY
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT SCT 050-070 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SEEN THRU MRNG. WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW-N BY LATE EVENING AS
MIXING CEASES...VEERING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT REMAINING LIGHT THRU
THE DAY. KAVL IS AN EXCEPTION...REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RISING OUT OF THE GULF STATES LATE
FRI.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KGSP 190001
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...REVISED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER AND WINDS PER LATEST
GUIDANCE THOUGH NO WHOLESALE CHANGES RESULTED. SEEING A LOT OF
CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA /OVER THE TENN VALLEY/ BUT
GUIDANCE APPARENTLY IS PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNSLOPING TO
BREAK UP THESE CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO CROSS THE MTNS. THAT EVOLUTION
IS LIKELY SO KEPT MOST AREAS IN PCLDY RANGE TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS INDEED IS ABLE TO HAPPEN.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...REVISED POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BETTER
REFLECT GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SRN STREAM WAVE. CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED TOO HIGH OVER THE NRN
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS...SO WE REDUCED THEM TO LKLY
RANGE.

AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 050 WILL PASS THRU
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
PERIODS OF CIGS WILL BE SEEN UNTIL THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THE BULK
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE TENN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE ERODED BY
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT SCT 050-070 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SEEN THRU MRNG. WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW-N BY LATE EVENING AS
MIXING CEASES...VEERING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT REMAINING LIGHT THRU
THE DAY. KAVL IS AN EXCEPTION...REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RISING OUT OF THE GULF STATES LATE
FRI.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES. SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AFFECTING
KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KCHS 182306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. NOTE...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING
TIME FRAME TO TAKE CHANGES MADE BY WFOS TO THE NORTH INTO ACCOUNT
BASED ON THE 18Z MODEL SUITE. THIS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE SAVANNAH AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID
40S ALONG THE COAST.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* INTRODUCED A WEAK SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
  CAROLINA COAST PER 18/22-23Z OBSERVATIONS.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 182257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 182257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 182116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 182116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 182116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 182116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...A VORT MAX WILL STREAK WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THIS
FAR SOUTH BEING A REINFORCING VEERING NWLY LLVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SO
WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO MAKE
INROADS FROM THE TN VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF CIRRUS WITHIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THRU
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AIR FAIRLY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S MTNS AND LWR-MID 30S
PIEDMONT).

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTN ATOP THE
CWFA. LLVL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BACK TO SWLY...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES LINGERS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO ACRS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. BY 12Z SAT...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TN. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND. I WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL BETTER MID FORCING
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AT THE TIME OF PRECIP
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RA AND SNOW ACROSS THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A COLD RAIN EAST. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS...I HAVE DECREASED QPF ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY. SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS.
HIGHS WILL BE TWEAKED A LITTLE WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...S/W RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE L30S ALONG I-40 TO U30 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
SCHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION
TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AS A DEEP
EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN INITIATING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF RESPOND WITH QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE CONSENSUS LOW CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIP IS
HARDLY A SLAM DUNK...THUS POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGE...
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MTNS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED
TIME FRAME...WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSE
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST). HIGHER POPS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
AREA OF DEEP FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IN SITU CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCHS 182042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID
40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. VARIABLE
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NW/N AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2
FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID
40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. VARIABLE
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NW/N AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2
FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID
40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. VARIABLE
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NW/N AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2
FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
AROUND NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID
40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. VARIABLE
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NW/N AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2
FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECT RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
AREA. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 181810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECT RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
AREA. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KGSP 181803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 181756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONGOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/ECT






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONGOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/ECT







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1025 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. ONE
POTENTIAL INHIBITOR TO TEMPS REACHING THOSE VALUES WOULD BE HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET THAT CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER
THE AREA. MODEL RH PLOTS AND SIMULATED SATELLITE PRODUCTS HINT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST WAS
IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/ECT






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1025 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. ONE
POTENTIAL INHIBITOR TO TEMPS REACHING THOSE VALUES WOULD BE HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET THAT CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER
THE AREA. MODEL RH PLOTS AND SIMULATED SATELLITE PRODUCTS HINT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST WAS
IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/ECT







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCHS 181159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING
AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE
GEORGIA WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THICKNESS VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN AND DIMINISH AS MODELS DEPICT THIS AFTERNOON...
SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING
AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE
GEORGIA WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THICKNESS VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN AND DIMINISH AS MODELS DEPICT THIS AFTERNOON...
SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING
AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE
GEORGIA WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THICKNESS VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN AND DIMINISH AS MODELS DEPICT THIS AFTERNOON...
SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 181137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 181110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 180905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN THIN. NEARING SUNRISE...
MANY LOCATIONS INLAND WILL BE AROUND THE MID 30...MILDER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BUT STILL SOME UPPER 30S JUST INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING AROUND
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN THE GRAND
SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE GEORGIA WITH
A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THICKNESS
VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN
AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN THIN. NEARING SUNRISE...
MANY LOCATIONS INLAND WILL BE AROUND THE MID 30...MILDER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BUT STILL SOME UPPER 30S JUST INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING AROUND
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN THE GRAND
SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE GEORGIA WITH
A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THICKNESS
VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN
AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 180905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN THIN. NEARING SUNRISE...
MANY LOCATIONS INLAND WILL BE AROUND THE MID 30...MILDER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BUT STILL SOME UPPER 30S JUST INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT LIGHT WINDS TO NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MID MORNING AROUND
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...A VERY SUBTLE FEATURE IN THE GRAND
SCHEME OF THINGS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE WARMER POTENTIAL READINGS OVER COASTAL SE GEORGIA WITH
A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THICKNESS
VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S RANGE. IF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN
AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...SAVANNAH COULD REACH 67 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED ANY HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN WHICH WHAT BOTH THE NAM AND GEM SKY COVER PROGS SUGGEST.
WE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
AREAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE BENIGN DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STILL RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES AND RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE...I HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IMPROVED
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...JET DYNAMICS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE ONLY A 1027 MB HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CAD WILL STRENGTHEN
THANKS TO DIABATIC ENHANCEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN PLACE. THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
THE LOSS OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. SOME INLAND AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND...WHILE EVEN COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 60S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SPEEDS...EXPECT
INHERENT OCCASIONAL PERIODIC VARIABILITIES IN DIRECTION. SEAS 1 TO
2 FT WITH A SMALL 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180545
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT
YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES
AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. ON FRIDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DECK SPREADING IN LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSW AND
INCREASES TO 20-25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. CONDITIONS FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERCAST SKIES...COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT...THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN HAS INCREASED AS WELL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE AS A DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY ON SUNDAY THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS. THEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK IN FROM
THE WEST THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN QUIET OVER THE MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SC COAST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180545
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT
YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES
AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. ON FRIDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DECK SPREADING IN LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSW AND
INCREASES TO 20-25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. CONDITIONS FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERCAST SKIES...COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT...THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN HAS INCREASED AS WELL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE AS A DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY ON SUNDAY THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS. THEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK IN FROM
THE WEST THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN QUIET OVER THE MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SC COAST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180545
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT
YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES
AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. ON FRIDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DECK SPREADING IN LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSW AND
INCREASES TO 20-25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. CONDITIONS FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERCAST SKIES...COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT...THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN HAS INCREASED AS WELL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE AS A DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY ON SUNDAY THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS. THEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK IN FROM
THE WEST THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN QUIET OVER THE MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SC COAST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180545
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT
YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES
AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. ON FRIDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DECK SPREADING IN LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSW AND
INCREASES TO 20-25 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. CONDITIONS FAVOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERCAST SKIES...COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT...THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN HAS INCREASED AS WELL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE AS A DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY ON SUNDAY THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS. THEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK IN FROM
THE WEST THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO THE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN QUIET OVER THE MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SC COAST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY BUT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 180319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW THREAT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW THREAT OF MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW THREAT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW THREAT OF MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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