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000
FXUS62 KCAE 171326
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
926 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT THINK CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITIES PROJECTED. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG WIND GUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CHANCES
NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL
INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS.  FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS62 KCHS 171145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLE E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS
LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH
CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE... TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
THERMODYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER
FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE
MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP UP ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS ALSO
GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 171145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLE E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS
LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH
CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE... TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
THERMODYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER
FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE
MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP UP ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS ALSO
GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






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000
FXUS62 KGSP 171135
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DOTTING THE UPSTATE THIS
MORNING...JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN AN AREA
OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN PULLED
INTO THE UPSTATE FOR THIS MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE
OVERSTATING THE SITUATION A BIT. OTHERWISE...STRATOCU SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATE MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST EAST OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...AND THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS
IN THE FORECAST LATER TODAY...WHICH CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS BEING
OF THE /LOW CONFIDENCE/ VARIETY...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST
POTENTIAL. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE /WEDGE-LIKE/ TODAY...
THE SITUATION WILL BE ANYTHING BUT CLASSICAL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
IS VERY WEAK AND NOT IN VERY GOOD POSITION. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM OFFERING (BY FAR) THE
WETTEST SOLUTION. THE NAM DEVELOPS A WELL DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG A NARROW AXIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER...IT IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE AND LLJ THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL.

THE UPSHOT IS THE NAM IS PRODUCING A LOT OF PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD. THE FACT
THAT THE 00Z RUN INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF PRECIP GOING
ON RIGHT NOW ACROSS WESTERN NC GIVES THE NAM A BIT OF A CREDIBILITY
PROBLEM FROM THE GET-GO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WE HAVE OPTED TO
FEATURE A FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH DRIER MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL
WEDGE SCENARIO...AND THE DEGREE OF HEATING (OR LACK THEREOF) TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS IS
COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL
BE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (NE AND
SW)..WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS WAS TO DEPICT
MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...TO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND/OR REDEVELOP IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
NERN STATES THU AND THU NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO
REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA. WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE IS IMPLIED AND PROG
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS INDICATE CAPPING ALOFT THOUGH THE GFS LAPSE
RATES ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO THINK A FEW TOWERING CU COULD GO UP. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ALBEIT
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP AHEAD OF
THE WAVE BUT EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INHIBITED.

A CAD EVENT WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE DAY THU AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS ACRS THE MTNS. FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS BASICALLY SHOWING THE TROUGH FILLING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE PARENT HIGH STAYS IN MOTION AS A RESULT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEING WEAKER...CAPPING IS LESS CERTAIN DURING
HEATING FRIDAY AFTN. ALLOWED A SCHC POP TO RETURN TO THE FCST IN THE
MOST FAVORED AREA...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.  US MODELS BEAR THEIR USUAL DISCREPANCIES
IN TERMS OF CAPE...BUT AGREE THAT SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK AND
PROFILES QUITE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WE/D PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH PULSE STORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CELLS WERE TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WED...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY THE PARENT HIGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LATE-WEEK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE FORCED FURTHER OFFSHORE.
EASTERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE WILL BE MINIMAL. THE PATTERN SHIFTS AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE ERN CONUS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS SHOWN ON BOTH GFS/EC BUT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN IMPACT THIS FAR INLAND. POPS WILL REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND
THE EC DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER. POPS MONDAY
APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMO THOUGH NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS
SIGNIFICANT QPF AT THIS TIME. BOTH GFS/EC DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THRU
MONDAY...WITH MAXES AROUND CLIMO THAT DAY. THEY THEN DROP A COUPLE
CATEGORIES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z OR SO...THEN WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE I STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CIGS AT THE
LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING (THE LIKELY EXCEPTION BEING KAND). CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
EVEN SCATTER OUT FROM TIME TO TIME...ESP AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE FLT CATEGORY
AT THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS MAY
FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   69%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS IN THE AREA SO
BRIEF PERIOD LOW CEILINGS THROUGH 13Z EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AGS/DNL AND OGB TERMINALS. VFR DEVELOPING 14Z-15Z ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING...LIKELY NORTH OF CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MAINLY EAST OR NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF IFR/MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR OGB THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 170822
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINS RE-SATURATED THE
SOILS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD CERTAINLY EXPAND EAST
AND SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PROBLEMS DO NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY GIVEN LATEST
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES UP TO 850 MB.
A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD SEE VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE NORTH OF
BEAUFORT NEARING DAWN...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN EITHER CLOSER TO THE BEACHES...JUST OFFSHORE OR
MOSTLY N OF THE AREA.

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED BACKDOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE
E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL
THE MODELS LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E
CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID/UPPER FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE
WITH THE MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS
WHICH WILL WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP
UP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS
ALSO GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 08Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE TRENDED A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD BECOME IFR OR
LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170822
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINS RE-SATURATED THE
SOILS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD CERTAINLY EXPAND EAST
AND SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PROBLEMS DO NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY GIVEN LATEST
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES UP TO 850 MB.
A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD SEE VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE NORTH OF
BEAUFORT NEARING DAWN...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN EITHER CLOSER TO THE BEACHES...JUST OFFSHORE OR
MOSTLY N OF THE AREA.

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED BACKDOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE
E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL
THE MODELS LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E
CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID/UPPER FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE
WITH THE MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS
WHICH WILL WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP
UP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS
ALSO GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 08Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE TRENDED A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD BECOME IFR OR
LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170752
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST EAST OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...AND THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS
IN THE FORECAST LATER TODAY...WHICH CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS BEING
OF THE /LOW CONFIDENCE/ VARIETY...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST
POTENTIAL. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE /WEDGE-LIKE/ TODAY...
THE SITUATION WILL BE ANYTHING BUT CLASSICAL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
IS VERY WEAK AND NOT IN VERY GOOD POSITION. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM OFFERING (BY FAR) THE
WETTEST SOLUTION. THE NAM DEVELOPS A WELL DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG A NARROW AXIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER...IT IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE AND LLJ THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL.

THE UPSHOT IS THE NAM IS PRODUCING A LOT OF PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD. THE FACT
THAT THE 00Z RUN INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF PRECIP GOING
ON RIGHT NOW ACROSS WESTERN NC GIVES THE NAM A BIT OF A CREDIBILITY
PROBLEM FROM THE GET-GO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WE HAVE OPTED TO
FEATURE A FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH DRIER MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL
WEDGE SCENARIO...AND THE DEGREE OF HEATING (OR LACK THEREOF) TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS IS
COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL
BE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (NE AND
SW)..WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS WAS TO DEPICT
MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...TO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND/OR REDEVELOP IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
NERN STATES THU AND THU NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO
REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA. WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE IS IMPLIED AND PROG
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS INDICATE CAPPING ALOFT THOUGH THE GFS LAPSE
RATES ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO THINK A FEW TOWERING CU COULD GO UP. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ALBEIT
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP AHEAD OF
THE WAVE BUT EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INHIBITED.

A CAD EVENT WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE DAY THU AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS ACRS THE MTNS. FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS BASICALLY SHOWING THE TROUGH FILLING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE PARENT HIGH STAYS IN MOTION AS A RESULT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEING WEAKER...CAPPING IS LESS CERTAIN DURING
HEATING FRIDAY AFTN. ALLOWED A SCHC POP TO RETURN TO THE FCST IN THE
MOST FAVORED AREA...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.  US MODELS BEAR THEIR USUAL DISCREPANCIES
IN TERMS OF CAPE...BUT AGREE THAT SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK AND
PROFILES QUITE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WE/D PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH PULSE STORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CELLS WERE TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     MED   72%     MED   78%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   71%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170752
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST EAST OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...AND THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS
IN THE FORECAST LATER TODAY...WHICH CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS BEING
OF THE /LOW CONFIDENCE/ VARIETY...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST
POTENTIAL. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE /WEDGE-LIKE/ TODAY...
THE SITUATION WILL BE ANYTHING BUT CLASSICAL...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
IS VERY WEAK AND NOT IN VERY GOOD POSITION. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM OFFERING (BY FAR) THE
WETTEST SOLUTION. THE NAM DEVELOPS A WELL DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG A NARROW AXIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER...IT IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE AND LLJ THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL.

THE UPSHOT IS THE NAM IS PRODUCING A LOT OF PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD. THE FACT
THAT THE 00Z RUN INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF PRECIP GOING
ON RIGHT NOW ACROSS WESTERN NC GIVES THE NAM A BIT OF A CREDIBILITY
PROBLEM FROM THE GET-GO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WE HAVE OPTED TO
FEATURE A FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH DRIER MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL
WEDGE SCENARIO...AND THE DEGREE OF HEATING (OR LACK THEREOF) TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS IS
COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL
BE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (NE AND
SW)..WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS WAS TO DEPICT
MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...TO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER SC
PIEDMONT.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND/OR REDEVELOP IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
NERN STATES THU AND THU NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO
REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA. WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE IS IMPLIED AND PROG
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS INDICATE CAPPING ALOFT THOUGH THE GFS LAPSE
RATES ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO THINK A FEW TOWERING CU COULD GO UP. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ALBEIT
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP AHEAD OF
THE WAVE BUT EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INHIBITED.

A CAD EVENT WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE DAY THU AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS ACRS THE MTNS. FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS BASICALLY SHOWING THE TROUGH FILLING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE PARENT HIGH STAYS IN MOTION AS A RESULT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEING WEAKER...CAPPING IS LESS CERTAIN DURING
HEATING FRIDAY AFTN. ALLOWED A SCHC POP TO RETURN TO THE FCST IN THE
MOST FAVORED AREA...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.  US MODELS BEAR THEIR USUAL DISCREPANCIES
IN TERMS OF CAPE...BUT AGREE THAT SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK AND
PROFILES QUITE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WE/D PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH PULSE STORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CELLS WERE TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     MED   72%     MED   78%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   71%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 170620
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 205 AM...CONVECTION IS FINALLY SHOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TIER OF FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THIS
GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY SHOULD BE 20
PERCENT AT BEST. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT
A SNAILS PACE THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY IN
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONS.

1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   74%     MED   75%     MED   73%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170620
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 205 AM...CONVECTION IS FINALLY SHOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TIER OF FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THIS
GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY SHOULD BE 20
PERCENT AT BEST. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT
A SNAILS PACE THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY IN
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONS.

1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   74%     MED   75%     MED   73%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170620
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 205 AM...CONVECTION IS FINALLY SHOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TIER OF FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THIS
GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY SHOULD BE 20
PERCENT AT BEST. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT
A SNAILS PACE THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY IN
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONS.

1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   74%     MED   75%     MED   73%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170620
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 205 AM...CONVECTION IS FINALLY SHOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TIER OF FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING IN THIS
GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY SHOULD BE 20
PERCENT AT BEST. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT
A SNAILS PACE THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY IN
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONS.

1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A NUMBER
OF COMPETING FACTORS WILL DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. A LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A WET GROUND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
AROUND THE TERMINAL EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
STICK AROUND...AS INCREASING (ALBEIT LIGHT) NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE WET
GROUND AND PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...EXPECT LMVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING...BUT JUST DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THESE
CONDITIONS ATTM. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO
LIFT LATER TODAY...AND ARE  ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNY OF THE TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
A TAF MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MADE SOMEWHAT RADICAL CHANGES TO THE KAVL TAF...AS A
PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY WIND...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATOCU IS
RESULTING IN A TEMP/DEWP SPREAD THAT IS MAKING DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD STILL VERY WELL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK...SO A TEMPO FOR 2SM/BKN004 WAS INCLUDED AFTER
10Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS FOR KGSP/KHKY ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...AS LIGHT NE WINDS AND VFR STRATOCU HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED (WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT)...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE SOIL IS VERY WET (ESP NEAR
KGSP) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
COUNT ON THE DEEP NE FLOW EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR WIND PROFILE
DISPLAY AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT LMVFR OR
BETTER LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT KAND/KGMU. CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER AT KAND AS SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVED FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   74%     MED   75%     MED   73%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING....FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE CSRA BUT REMAINING
ROBUST AND PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION NORTH AND
TREND TOWARD WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS
SLIDING SE OVERNIGHT AND WHILE ADDITIONAL COASTAL RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE...THEY WILL TEND TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 06Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECTED IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW
CLOUDS EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE
TRENDED A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD
BECOME IFR OR LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 FT ORE LESS ...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATE.
MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH
LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG
IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE
SAFE ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 170228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   69%     LOW   56%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   63%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     MED   65%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   71%     MED   66%     MED   72%     LOW   58%
KGMU       LOW   57%     LOW   41%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 170228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM ED UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF +1000J/KG MUCAPE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND UNION NC WAS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
ONGOING. LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
AFFECTING AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A COOL AIR WEDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PREVAILING NE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE LLVL CLOUDINESS.

745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG SBCAPE PRESENT
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WED
EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH
A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MTNS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE AND MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   69%     LOW   56%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   63%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     MED   65%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   71%     MED   66%     MED   72%     LOW   58%
KGMU       LOW   57%     LOW   41%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170006
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE... THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     MED   70%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     MED   76%     MED   64%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     LOW   55%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   61%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170006
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE... THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     MED   70%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     MED   76%     MED   64%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     LOW   55%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   61%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170006
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE... THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     MED   70%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     MED   76%     MED   64%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     LOW   55%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   61%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 170006
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO POPS WERE UPDATED
TO RAMP DOWN ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOL AIR WEDGE TO SET
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE... THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH 02Z PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS/VISBY OVERNIGHT AS A COOL AIR WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU WED NIGHT...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE LMVFR
CLOUDINESS WITH PERSISTENT NE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A COOL AIR WEDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...YIELDING MVFR CIGS/VISBY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VISBY IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS.
HENCE...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LVFR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NE WINDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     MED   70%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     MED   76%     MED   64%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     LOW   55%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   61%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR ASHEVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDED...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ALL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY SOME PERSISTANT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY. SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CHESTERFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH 03Z AS HRRR INDICATES SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV






000
FXUS62 KCAE 162345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR ASHEVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDED...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ALL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY SOME PERSISTANT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY. SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CHESTERFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH 03Z AS HRRR INDICATES SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. SINCE WE STILL HAVE ROADS CLOSED IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND RAIN ONGOING OR FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL ZONES AND PARTS OF SE GA WHERE WE HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ONGOING...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH UNTIL 11 PM. COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINS IN A FEW OTHER NEARBY COUNTIES...BUT
THESE WILL BE HANDLED IN A FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY OR POSSIBLE WARNING.

EARLIER WE SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CHATHAM
AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. SBCAPES
AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. SINCE WE STILL HAVE ROADS CLOSED IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND RAIN ONGOING OR FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL ZONES AND PARTS OF SE GA WHERE WE HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ONGOING...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH UNTIL 11 PM. COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINS IN A FEW OTHER NEARBY COUNTIES...BUT
THESE WILL BE HANDLED IN A FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY OR POSSIBLE WARNING.

EARLIER WE SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CHATHAM
AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. SBCAPES
AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BACK-BUILDING OF
CONVECTION AS THE WEST/NW STEERING MOTION RUNS INTO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND JUST PILES UP DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THESE
PROMINENT FEATURES. WE STILL HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
UNTIL 8 PM SINCE THERE IS STILL AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED...MAINLY
IN DOWNTOWN. WE ALSO SAW A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES WITH A FEW REPORTS OF TREES DOWN.
SBCAPES AND DCAPES ARE DECREASING...SO THE RISK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
515 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A
COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS
OVER SOUTHERN GA AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED
VORT LOBE ENTERING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THAT PLUS
UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB
JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE
IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE
THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED
MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE
STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP
AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A PILING UP OF
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR SE TO
GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING THE
COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHER WEST AND NW
WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND
POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AS CINH REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO
ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT
COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
515 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A
COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS
OVER SOUTHERN GA AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED
VORT LOBE ENTERING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THAT PLUS
UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB
JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE
IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE
THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED
MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE
STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP
AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A PILING UP OF
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR SE TO
GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING THE
COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHER WEST AND NW
WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND
POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AS CINH REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO
ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT
COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 162054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
454 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG
SBCAPE PRESENT ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 162054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
454 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AMONGST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG
SBCAPE PRESENT ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC UPSTATE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A
COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS
OVER SOUTHERN GA AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED
VORT LOBE ENTERING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THAT PLUS
UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB
JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE
IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE
THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED
MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE
STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP
AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A PILING UP OF
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR SE TO
GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING THE
COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHER WEST AND NW
WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND
POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AS CINH REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO
ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT
COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME IS FROM 20-23Z AT KCHS AND FROM 21-24Z AT KSAV.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 162002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A
COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS
OVER SOUTHERN GA AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED
VORT LOBE ENTERING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND THAT PLUS
UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB
JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE
IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE
THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED
MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE
STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP
AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A PILING UP OF
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR SE TO
GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING THE
COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHER WEST AND NW
WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND
POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AS CINH REDEVELOPS AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE WE HAVE HELD ONTO
ISOLATED POPS FAR INLAND AND SCATTERED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03-05Z. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE FROM NEAR BEAUFORT
COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA LATE THIS EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WE LOOK FOR ALL CONVECTION TO HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE.

OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH A FAVORABLE 1-2C INVERSION TO SET UP OFF THE
DECK. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS AND
THAT FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A SMIDGEN OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHIFTING IN...CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR AFTER 2 OR 3 AM...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FALL TO UNDER 10 OR 20 MB. OUTSIDE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

THE TEMP CURVE HAS BECOME INTERRUPTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED OUR BEST TO SHOW THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL TO TEMPS. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...A TAD COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AS THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE UPPER 60S INTO OUR
NW HALF OF THE CWFA BY MORNING...WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND A FEW MID 70S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME IS FROM 20-23Z AT KCHS AND FROM 21-24Z AT KSAV.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT...WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET
GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
FORM WE LOOK FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LIGHT SE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO FADE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH/NW...LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FORM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP NEAR 30 OR 35 KT...HEAVY RAINS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER 1 NM AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. BE SAFE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.

WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING FROM SHORT
WAVES...ABUNDANT PWATS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KT WE LOOK
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 OR 5 INCHES. THESE ARE NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE SERFC...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161905 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161905 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
RATHER LARGE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NORTHEAST GA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THESE ZONES DO INDICATE DECENT CAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 400MB WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE.
THUS...AFTERNOON FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  OTHERWISE...ASIDE FOR
POSSIBLE/BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO ERODE BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING
SUBSIDES AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGIONS OF NC/SC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I77.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL MOISTURE RESIDES...AND ALSO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...DESPITE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ENCROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NORTHEAST
GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST GA AND THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THUS...OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. FULL
FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...DESPITE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ENCROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NORTHEAST
GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST GA AND THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THUS...OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. FULL
FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS DOES MOVE OFF SHORE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE TROF. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME MECHANICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION WED EVENING. THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT TIME
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY FLOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...UPPER TROF BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF SHORE. ANOTHER
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ON MON AND REMAINS ON TUE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUE. EXPECT A DRY FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUN. MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP MON WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE HIGHEST. PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
TUE AND MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...DESPITE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ENCROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NORTHEAST
GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST GA AND THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THUS...OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. FULL
FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...DESPITE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ENCROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NORTHEAST
GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST GA AND THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THUS...OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. FULL
FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BKN LOW VFR CU WITH A 4HR TEMPO FROM 22-02Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT PROB30
IN THE NEXT FM GROUP AS LATEST CAMS INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT ITSELF SLIDES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM RUNS SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS/VISB RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MORNING WITH VISB IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA AND EARLY MORNING VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS MENTION WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND 4SM VISB WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEPENDING ON SITE LOCATION. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION BEYOND
TEMPOS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CIG AND VISB RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...WITH GUIDANCE HITTING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THE HARDEST DESPITE THE FROPA. THUS...CARRIED MVFR
CIGS/VISB AT KAVL BUT OPTED FOR ONLY A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FOR KHKY WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161726
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SOUTHERN GA
AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE ENTERING
THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY
THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT
DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE STEERED TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP AGAINST THE
PINNED SEA BREEZE /ONCE IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS/...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FIRST WHERE WE HAVE SEEN
SOME INSOLATION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE
INSOLATION HAS BEEN SLOWER IN ARRIVING AND CINH HAS BEEN HOLDING
ON...THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BUT THAT AREA WILL
ALSO GET IN ON THE ACTION BY 3 OR 4 PM. RAINFALL IN OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. FURTHER WEST AND NW WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40
PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS FROM 20-23Z AT KCHS AND FROM
21-24Z AT KSAV. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET GROUNDS...LITTLE
TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR
SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP UNDERNEATH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST/NW TO GIVE WAY TO A RESULTANT
SOUTH/SW SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES THE WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION.
WE/RE STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161726
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SOUTHERN GA
AND THE SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT BUT PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE ENTERING
THE UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO NORTHERN GA. THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY
THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT
DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION WILL BE STEERED TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL BUMP UP AGAINST THE
PINNED SEA BREEZE /ONCE IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS/...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FIRST WHERE WE HAVE SEEN
SOME INSOLATION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE
INSOLATION HAS BEEN SLOWER IN ARRIVING AND CINH HAS BEEN HOLDING
ON...THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BUT THAT AREA WILL
ALSO GET IN ON THE ACTION BY 3 OR 4 PM. RAINFALL IN OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. FURTHER WEST AND NW WE/LL RELY ON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS TO POP ANY CONVECTION...AND POPS ARE HELD TO 30-40
PERCENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HAS SOME
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS....PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF THE TALLER
STORMS.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACTS AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS FROM 20-23Z AT KCHS AND FROM
21-24Z AT KSAV. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS A CONCERN.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN WET GROUNDS...LITTLE
TO NO WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR
SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP UNDERNEATH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST/NW TO GIVE WAY TO A RESULTANT
SOUTH/SW SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES THE WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION.
WE/RE STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161501
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH OBS INDICATE LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS SUBSIDED WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS
AIDED IN STRATUS EROSION ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT REGION
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
ALREADY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST SITES. DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA PREVAILS LEADING TO DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
LOWER 70S. IN RESPONSE...LATEST SPC MESO PLOTS INDICATE AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDING OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE SBCAPE MAXIMA ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.
THUS FOR THE FORECAST...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE AS LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE
INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30
FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE
MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 161426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SW GA AND THE
SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE FROM NC TO NORTHERN GA/AL. THESE
FEATURES WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT
PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE
NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION
WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL
BUMP UP AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS ONLY A SMALL RISK FOR LATE MORNING CONVECTION WITH A
LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. BUT
COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON
OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE SEA
BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICALLY THAN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ROUGHLY 19-21Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO FOR MVFR IMPACTS FROM TSTMS WILL
BE SHOWN.

KSAV...VFR EXPECTED 15-16Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST AND NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...AS A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN
SETS UP UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RESULTANT SOUTH/SW SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES THE WIND FIELDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION. WE/RE
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SW GA AND THE
SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE FROM NC TO NORTHERN GA/AL. THESE
FEATURES WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT
PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE
NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION
WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL
BUMP UP AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS ONLY A SMALL RISK FOR LATE MORNING CONVECTION WITH A
LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. BUT
COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON
OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE SEA
BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICALLY THAN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ROUGHLY 19-21Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO FOR MVFR IMPACTS FROM TSTMS WILL
BE SHOWN.

KSAV...VFR EXPECTED 15-16Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST AND NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...AS A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN
SETS UP UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RESULTANT SOUTH/SW SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES THE WIND FIELDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION. WE/RE
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SW GA AND THE
SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE FROM NC TO NORTHERN GA/AL. THESE
FEATURES WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT
PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE
NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION
WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL
BUMP UP AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS ONLY A SMALL RISK FOR LATE MORNING CONVECTION WITH A
LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. BUT
COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON
OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE SEA
BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICALLY THAN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ROUGHLY 19-21Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO FOR MVFR IMPACTS FROM TSTMS WILL
BE SHOWN.

KSAV...VFR EXPECTED 15-16Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST AND NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...AS A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN
SETS UP UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RESULTANT SOUTH/SW SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES THE WIND FIELDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION. WE/RE
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK
BUT DEFINED BY DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALIGNED NE-SW THAT
LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NW THROUGH DARK. THIS SCENARIO SETS THE
STAGE FOR MORE MORE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES HEADING OUR WAY FROM UPSTREAM. ONE IS OVER SW GA AND THE
SECOND IS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE FROM NC TO NORTHERN GA/AL. THESE
FEATURES WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THAT
PLUS UPPER DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
250 MB JET WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MEANWHILE THERE IS STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...UP ALMOST AT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE
NOTICEABLE THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL SLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIMITED MOVEMENT TO OUR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. PLUS THE CONVECTION
WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE WEST/NW FLOW AND WILL
BUMP UP AGAINST THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...WHICH IMPLIES THAT A
PILING UP OF RAINFALL CAN OCCUR AS IT HAS NOWHERE FURTHER EAST OR
SE TO GO...STUCK AT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL HITTING
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SC AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND IT/S IN THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS ONLY A SMALL RISK FOR LATE MORNING CONVECTION WITH A
LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. BUT
COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON
OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT FROM THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT...THE SEA
BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS A TAD BIT DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN OF LATE.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICALLY THAN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...MERGERS AND/OR COLLISIONS OCCUR. THIS IS A LOW END
PROBABILITY...BUT WORTHY OF TALKING ABOUT.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL NEGATE THE EFFECTS
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS EVEN SOME POCKETS OF DECENT
INSOLATION BETWEEN LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROWN INTO THE
MIX. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON ACTUAL HIGHS...BUT WE
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S OR
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PENDING TRENDS WE MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO GO A TAD HIGHER. KEEP IN MIND THAT ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES AND COVERAGE SPREADS OUT THAT OUR DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WILL NEED BIG ADJUSTMENTS. WE HAVE LEANED THIS WAY IN OUR HOURLY
TEMP FORECAST...BUT NO DOUBT FUTURE AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ROUGHLY 19-21Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO FOR MVFR IMPACTS FROM TSTMS WILL
BE SHOWN.

KSAV...VFR EXPECTED 15-16Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST AND NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...AS A FAIRLY NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN
SETS UP UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RESULTANT SOUTH/SW SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES THE WIND FIELDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO CONVECTION. WE/RE
STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD APPROACHING OUR WATERS FROM THE EAST...BUT AVERAGE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE HELD TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MARINERS
ARE ALERTED TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 OR 2 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH
SOUTH TO DARIEN AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER SUGGEST THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
4 OR EVEN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161250 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE
INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30
FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE
MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 161250 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE
INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30
FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE
MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 161250 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE
INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30
FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE
MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 161250 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE
INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30
FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE
MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 161247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE NOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER
EXTREME NW NC. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LATE MORNING POPS AND
RAMP UP TO MORE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN
LINE WITH THE 06Z BIAS CORRECETD MOS AND IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...HAVE HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WEAK NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING. MORE HEATING WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NW FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH
A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR
LIFTING OR SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER HEATING
WILL MEAN MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT... ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KCHS 161037
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...

1. CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY...ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW BROAD
DIFLUENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF YET ANOTHER 250 HPA JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD
DURING PEAK HEATING. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BEING PINNED TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND LATE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THEN CONCENTRATE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD VERY SLOWLY INLAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT SIGNATURE THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE SAVANNAH...DARIEN...SPRINGFIELD...
GLENNVILLE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

POPS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA TO 70 PERCENT FROM BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH SOUTH...INCLUDING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. FATHER INLAND...MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED. POPS
OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 14-15Z. CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY 19-21Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO FOR MVFR IMPACTS FROM
TSTMS WILL BE SHOWN.

KSAV...VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE
19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NEAR TERM CONCERNS CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
MOVING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. HARBOR WEBCAMS SUGGEST CIGS ARE
SLOWLY LOWERING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER VSBYS WILL DROP
ENOUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN
AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 8 PM EDT AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCAE 161022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT
AGS/DNL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...MVFR TO IFR
FORECAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT
AGS/DNL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...MVFR TO IFR
FORECAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 160747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9
AM FOR VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FOG MAY LIFT
OR VSBYS IMPROVE ABOVE 1/4 MILE PRIOR TO 9 AM AS CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE MIDLANDS COULD BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...
BUT ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. AREAS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS MONDAY. AN EXPANSION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING HOURS.

TODAY...ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW BROAD
DIFLUENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF YET ANOTHER 250 HPA JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD
DURING PEAK HEATING. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BEING PINNED TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND LATE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THEN CONCENTRATE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD VERY SLOWLY INLAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT SIGNATURE THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE SAVANNAH...DARIEN...SPRINGFIELD...
GLENNVILLE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

POPS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA TO 70 PERCENT FROM BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH SOUTH...INCLUDING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. FATHER INLAND...MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED. POPS
OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NEAR TERM CONCERNS CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
MOVING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. HARBOR WEBCAMS SUGGEST CIGS ARE
SLOWLY LOWERING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER VSBYS WILL DROP
ENOUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN
AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 8 PM EDT AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ044-045-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 160747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9
AM FOR VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FOG MAY LIFT
OR VSBYS IMPROVE ABOVE 1/4 MILE PRIOR TO 9 AM AS CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE MIDLANDS COULD BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...
BUT ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. AREAS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS MONDAY. AN EXPANSION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING HOURS.

TODAY...ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW BROAD
DIFLUENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF YET ANOTHER 250 HPA JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD
DURING PEAK HEATING. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BEING PINNED TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND LATE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THEN CONCENTRATE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD VERY SLOWLY INLAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT SIGNATURE THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE SAVANNAH...DARIEN...SPRINGFIELD...
GLENNVILLE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

POPS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA TO 70 PERCENT FROM BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH SOUTH...INCLUDING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. FATHER INLAND...MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED. POPS
OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NEAR TERM CONCERNS CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
MOVING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. HARBOR WEBCAMS SUGGEST CIGS ARE
SLOWLY LOWERING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER VSBYS WILL DROP
ENOUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN
AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 8 PM EDT AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ044-045-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 160747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9
AM FOR VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FOG MAY LIFT
OR VSBYS IMPROVE ABOVE 1/4 MILE PRIOR TO 9 AM AS CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE MIDLANDS COULD BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...
BUT ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. AREAS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS MONDAY. AN EXPANSION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING HOURS.

TODAY...ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW BROAD
DIFLUENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF YET ANOTHER 250 HPA JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD
DURING PEAK HEATING. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BEING PINNED TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND LATE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THEN CONCENTRATE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD VERY SLOWLY INLAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT SIGNATURE THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE SAVANNAH...DARIEN...SPRINGFIELD...
GLENNVILLE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

POPS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA TO 70 PERCENT FROM BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH SOUTH...INCLUDING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. FATHER INLAND...MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED. POPS
OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NEAR TERM CONCERNS CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
MOVING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. HARBOR WEBCAMS SUGGEST CIGS ARE
SLOWLY LOWERING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER VSBYS WILL DROP
ENOUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN
AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 8 PM EDT AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ044-045-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 160747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9
AM FOR VSBYS 1/4 NM OR LESS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FOG MAY LIFT
OR VSBYS IMPROVE ABOVE 1/4 MILE PRIOR TO 9 AM AS CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE MIDLANDS COULD BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...
BUT ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. AREAS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS MONDAY. AN EXPANSION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING HOURS.

TODAY...ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW BROAD
DIFLUENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF YET ANOTHER 250 HPA JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD
DURING PEAK HEATING. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BEING PINNED TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND LATE. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE THEN CONCENTRATE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD VERY SLOWLY INLAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT SIGNATURE THAT AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE SAVANNAH...DARIEN...SPRINGFIELD...
GLENNVILLE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

POPS WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA TO 70 PERCENT FROM BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH SOUTH...INCLUDING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-16. FATHER INLAND...MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED. POPS
OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION. THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME CLEARING
WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WET GROUNDS AND THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING OR NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WHEN A MORE DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE MOVED TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES SOME FORCING/CONVERGENCE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARD
THE COASTLINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES
TO SHIFT OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION...PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...YET TREND COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WHILE ONLY RISING TO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE...AS LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES FRIDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE DRIER INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL ADVERTISE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NEAR TERM CONCERNS CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
MOVING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. HARBOR WEBCAMS SUGGEST CIGS ARE
SLOWLY LOWERING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER VSBYS WILL DROP
ENOUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 11-14 SECONDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
ATTM IT APPEARS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND
2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FAR OFFSHORE AND REMAINS FAIRLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 1 FT
SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR TODAY. LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL DIMINISH...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE DAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SIGNAL THAT AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP IN THE AREA FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN
AND OVER TO SPRINGFIELD AND GLENNVILLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3
IN/HR...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 8 PM EDT AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
FALLING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ044-045-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KCAE 160539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 160539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 160454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SUNRISE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND
FOG. VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA WHERE THE FOG HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER. ITS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BECOME NOW THAT
THE WEDGE FRONT IS TO THE NORTH...BUT WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST THE RISK IS RATHER ELEVATED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH...THEN WILL
TURN TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW WILL ALSO ALTER LOCAL WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN
ABOUT 2 FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 160454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SUNRISE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND
FOG. VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA WHERE THE FOG HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER. ITS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BECOME NOW THAT
THE WEDGE FRONT IS TO THE NORTH...BUT WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST THE RISK IS RATHER ELEVATED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE.

KCHS...CIGS/VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED AT KCHS...BUT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND. IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY DROP TO PREVAILING LIFR. MAINTAINED TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN 13-15Z. CHANCES
FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

KSAV...VFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
PREVAILING IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT ITS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER THAT WILL
OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. VFR BY 13-15Z WITH TSTM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE 19-22Z. LIMITED TSTM IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH...THEN WILL
TURN TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW WILL ALSO ALTER LOCAL WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN
ABOUT 2 FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER
SWELLS AROUND 3 FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KGSP 160224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   58%     LOW   59%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   73%     MED   65%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     LOW   54%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   67%     LOW   45%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   67%     MED   67%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 160139
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DISCONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SC COUNTIES FROM COLLETON
TO THE SANTEE RIVER.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING ALONG VARIOUS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM COLLETON COUNTY NE TO THE SANTEE RIVER
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. ALSO...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16. HERE TOO...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED NOTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST POPS CAPPED AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT SHOULD SHIFT
INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST.

GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KCHS RAOB...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.

STRATUS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND LOWER TO THE SURFACE LATE
TONIGHT...THUS FORECASTS INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL...THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF DETERIORATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN... AND AMENDMENTS/
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH...THEN WILL
TURN TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW WILL ALSO ALTER LOCAL WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 160139
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DISCONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SC COUNTIES FROM COLLETON
TO THE SANTEE RIVER.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING/EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING ALONG VARIOUS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM COLLETON COUNTY NE TO THE SANTEE RIVER
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. ALSO...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16. HERE TOO...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED NOTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST POPS CAPPED AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT SHOULD SHIFT
INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST.

GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KCHS RAOB...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.

STRATUS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND LOWER TO THE SURFACE LATE
TONIGHT...THUS FORECASTS INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL...THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF DETERIORATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN... AND AMENDMENTS/
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH...THEN WILL
TURN TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW WILL ALSO ALTER LOCAL WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 152358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     LOW   59%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     LOW   51%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   65%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   60%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     LOW   39%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     LOW   57%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 152358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     LOW   59%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     LOW   51%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   65%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   60%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     LOW   39%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     LOW   57%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 152322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE/VE SEEN PLENTY OF WATER IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THAT
OCCURRED UNFORTUNATELY AROUND THE TIME OF RUSH HOUR...BUT
FORTUNATELY DURING AN OUTGOING TIDE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE IN A DIMINISHING MODE...BUT UNTIL IT DOES SO WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THERE IS A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF INTENSE
RAINS SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DRIVING NE FROM THE GULF AND
VARIOUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. ODDS FAVOR THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EVEN SO AFTER A METEOROLOGICAL CONSULTATION WE HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND ALL
OTHER COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY REGION.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN CORRUPTED BY THE CONVECTION...BUT
WILL STABILIZE LATER THIS EVENING...THEN HEADING DOWN TO LATE NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...LOWEST INLAND AND WARMEST ON
THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND GIVEN THE
RAINFALL TODAY AND YESTERDAY THE GROUNDS IN MANY AREAS ARE QUITE
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR CIG/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AT KCHS EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
USUAL...THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF DETERIORATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...
AND AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TONIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LINGERING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SET UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SW AND WEST
WITH TIME. ON AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED...ONLY AROUND 2 FT. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FLARING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLLETON COUNTY AND THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING INLAND SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 152322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE/VE SEEN PLENTY OF WATER IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THAT
OCCURRED UNFORTUNATELY AROUND THE TIME OF RUSH HOUR...BUT
FORTUNATELY DURING AN OUTGOING TIDE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE IN A DIMINISHING MODE...BUT UNTIL IT DOES SO WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THERE IS A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF INTENSE
RAINS SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DRIVING NE FROM THE GULF AND
VARIOUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. ODDS FAVOR THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EVEN SO AFTER A METEOROLOGICAL CONSULTATION WE HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND ALL
OTHER COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY REGION.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN CORRUPTED BY THE CONVECTION...BUT
WILL STABILIZE LATER THIS EVENING...THEN HEADING DOWN TO LATE NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...LOWEST INLAND AND WARMEST ON
THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND GIVEN THE
RAINFALL TODAY AND YESTERDAY THE GROUNDS IN MANY AREAS ARE QUITE
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR CIG/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AT KCHS EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
USUAL...THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF DETERIORATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...
AND AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TONIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIRECT IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LINGERING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SET UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SW AND WEST
WITH TIME. ON AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED...ONLY AROUND 2 FT. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FLARING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLLETON COUNTY AND THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING INLAND SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 152232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
632 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE/VE SEEN PLENTY OF WATER IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THAT
OCCURRED UNFORTUNATELY AROUND THE TIME OF RUSH HOUR...BUT
FORTUNATELY DURING AN OUTGOING TIDE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE IN A DIMINISHING MODE...BUT UNTIL IT DOES SO WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THERE IS A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF INTENSE
RAINS SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DRIVING NE FROM THE GULF AND
VARIOUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. ODDS FAVOR THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EVEN SO AFTER A METEOROLOGICAL CONSULTATION WE HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND ALL
OTHER COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY REGION.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN CORRUPTED BY THE CONVECTION...BUT
WILL STABILIZE LATER THIS EVENING...THEN HEADING DOWN TO LATE NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...LOWEST INLAND AND WARMEST ON
THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND GIVEN THE
RAINFALL TODAY AND YESTERDAY THE GROUNDS IN MANY AREAS ARE QUITE
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LINGERING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SET UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SW AND WEST
WITH TIME. ON AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED...ONLY AROUND 2 FT. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FLARING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 152232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
632 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE/VE SEEN PLENTY OF WATER IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THAT
OCCURRED UNFORTUNATELY AROUND THE TIME OF RUSH HOUR...BUT
FORTUNATELY DURING AN OUTGOING TIDE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE IN A DIMINISHING MODE...BUT UNTIL IT DOES SO WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THERE IS A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF INTENSE
RAINS SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DRIVING NE FROM THE GULF AND
VARIOUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. ODDS FAVOR THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EVEN SO AFTER A METEOROLOGICAL CONSULTATION WE HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AND ALL
OTHER COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY REGION.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN CORRUPTED BY THE CONVECTION...BUT
WILL STABILIZE LATER THIS EVENING...THEN HEADING DOWN TO LATE NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...LOWEST INLAND AND WARMEST ON
THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND GIVEN THE
RAINFALL TODAY AND YESTERDAY THE GROUNDS IN MANY AREAS ARE QUITE
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LINGERING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SET UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SW AND WEST
WITH TIME. ON AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED...ONLY AROUND 2 FT. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FLARING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KCHS 152007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE STALLED WEDGE FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH
RETREATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
ERODE THE WEDGE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKS INLAND BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NEARBY FRONT.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO STRATUS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF FOG AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
TODAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT WILL BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY THE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MEAN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT...EXCEPT
2-3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HIGH PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2-3 IN/HR...WHICH ARE NEAR THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 152007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE STALLED WEDGE FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH
RETREATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
ERODE THE WEDGE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKS INLAND BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NEARBY FRONT.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO STRATUS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF FOG AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
TODAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT WILL BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY THE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MEAN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT...EXCEPT
2-3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HIGH PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2-3 IN/HR...WHICH ARE NEAR THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 152007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE STALLED WEDGE FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH
RETREATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
ERODE THE WEDGE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKS INLAND BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NEARBY FRONT.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO STRATUS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF FOG AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
TODAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT WILL BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY THE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MEAN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT...EXCEPT
2-3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HIGH PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2-3 IN/HR...WHICH ARE NEAR THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 152007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE STALLED WEDGE FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH
RETREATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
ERODE THE WEDGE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKS INLAND BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NEARBY FRONT.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO STRATUS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF FOG AS WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
TODAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT WILL BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY THE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A STRONG BUT DAMPENING SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND AND ALSO WEAKENING SHORT WAVE HEADS
INTO OUR AREA WITHIN THE WEST-NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE LOOKED TO BE
FOUND IN THE MID-MS VALLEY AS OF LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NEBULOUS AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALIGNED MAINLY NE-SW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR MID WEEK
COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH
PWATS TO FALL TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT
DAYS...IT IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
THERE IS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAVE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NEAR THE
SAVANNAH AREA TO MCINTOSH AND LONG COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER STORM MOTION THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR AND BETTER VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THAN OF LATE...THERE IS A
VERY LOW RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AND WAITS FOR THE PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL FORM AT LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALSO ACTS TO SLOW IT DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THIS TIME. WE NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH PROBABLY NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE COOL AIR LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS. THURSDAY WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
AIR MASS WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ACTUALLY DOWN BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST DIMINISHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND MARINE ZONES...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO GO
AROUND. LOW CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...POSSIBLY GOING LIFR AND PROBABLY
LOWERING ENOUGH TO EVEN YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN OCCASIONAL SHRA AND/OR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME PERIODS...AND IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MEAN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT...EXCEPT
2-3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.

TUESDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 15-16 SECONDS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD MAY
ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT NO MORE
THAN 2 OR 3 FT. CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ONCE ANY LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LIFTS/DISSIPATES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE
WAY TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
EDOUARD...AVERAGING AROUND 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT FURTHER
OUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE
PINCHED AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR SE
AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. A LONG ONSHORE
FETCH AND STRONGER NE WINDS LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD
START ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 2
FT SWELL THAT MAKES IT TO THE BEACHES BY LATE TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LARGER SWELLS AROUND 3
FT MIGHT OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE LOSE THE SWELL FROM EDOUARD...BUT
STRONGER NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TO AGAIN PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HIGH PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2-3 IN/HR...WHICH ARE NEAR THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD D