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000
FXUS62 KCHS 280748
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, becoming nearly
stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The front
will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure builds
across the region. Another cold front will approach the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The overall pattern today will favor a more active afternoon
and evening with increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Aloft, the persistent mid/upper level ridge will break down and
dissipate as shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. This
shortwave energy is on the southern periphery of a sharp upper
trough that will move through the Great Lakes region today. As the
larger scale flow becomes more cyclonic and the shortwave energy
approaches, it will help to push a cold front into the area from the
northwest this afternoon and evening. Moisture will pool along and
ahead of this front, and when combined with the aforementioned upper
support and low level convergence along the boundary will result in
at least numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The models seem to be in pretty good
agreement that initiation will take place to the north and northwest
across the Midlands, and will then propagate southward into the
area. The main time period for thunderstorms will be from roughly
around 2 pm for inland locations to around 8-9 pm along the coast.
Confidence is high that most, if not all, locations will see
measurable rainfall today. But pops have been capped at the 70
percent range due to uncertainties with regard to exactly when the
storms develop and how quickly the proceed southward. POP
adjustments will likely need to be made through the day as radar
trends become evident.

Regarding impacts, the main threat for today appears to be locally
heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values surge to in excess of 2
inches and the presence of embedded heavy thunderstorms could result
in rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. It appears that these storms will
have enough forward speed to preclude a significant flooding threat,
but we could still see isolated areas with locally excessive
rainfall that produces minor flooding issues. Given the expected
movement, a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook is not needed
at this time. Finally, regarding the severe potential, the forecast
area is in a general thunder from the Storm Prediction Center. Model
soundings do not reveal a particularly conducive atmosphere given
the deep moisture and lack of steep mid level lapse rates. However,
one thing to keep an eye on is if these storms can get any
organization as the form across the Midlands and put out much
leading outflow. The severe threat is certainly on the low side
given the marginal thermodynamics and modest CAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/kg, but we could still see an isolated strong to marginally
severe storm or two.

Tonight: In the evening the bulk of the ongoing activity is expected
to focus along the coast and be on a diminishing trend with the loss
of diurnal heating. Still, with the front in the vicinity, shortwave
energy aloft, and deep moisture, isolated to scattered showers and
storms could continue for much of the overnight. POPs feature a
diminishing trend but we do maintain mid to high range chances for
many areas through the period. Lows will fall into the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday: An amplified and broad large scale pattern will exist
aloft across the country, featuring a strong anticyclone near the
Four Corners in the west, and the eastern trough that stretches South
into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface we find an undulating cold
front near or over our north and northwest zones. An abundance of
moisture will prevail within a deep southwest feed of sub-tropical
air evidenced by Pwat that is near or in excess of 2 inches. Throw
in some weak upper divergence and subtle mid level perturbations,
convergence and large scale forcing for ascent from the proximity to
the cold front and the typical sea breeze boundary, and an elevated
convective rain chance will be prevalent. Our gridded forecast
depicts 40% chances of showers/t-storms north and north to 50% south
and southeast. The overall thermodynamics are modest at best, but
with some 20-25 kt of bulk shear in the 0-6km layer and MLCAPE
upwards of 1500 J/kg, there could be a low end risk for isolated
marginally severe storms. Probably a bigger concern will be the
potential for locally excessive rains with weak storm motion and the
high Pwat. Maximum temps will be held somewhat in check by the
higher rain chances, generally in the upper 80s or near 90.

Thursday: A broad and large scale trough will persist in east and
southeast, while a Piedmont trough and a rather weak cold front
wavers nearby. The proximity to the front and trough, the sea breeze
boundary, plus forcing for ascent due to subtle impulses aloft and
some divergence in the upper atmosphere will support yet another day
with higher than typical convective rain chances. We again have 40-
50 Pops across the entire CWFA, and locally heavy rains are again a
problem since storm motion is less than 10 kt and Pwat is up near
the 90th percentile for this time of year. There may also be a
slightly greater risk for isolated severe storms with better
instability and DCAPE on the order of 1200-1600 J/kg. With the high
moisture content this may allow for a few marginally severe storms
with wet downbursts. Temps will be near or a tad above normal.

Friday: The flow aloft starts to flatten and becomes quasi-zonal
with small height rises to occur locally by late in the day. The
cold front will have either dissipated or lifted far to the north,
allowing for sub-tropical high pressure to build from the Atlantic.
While there is the lack of any significant forcing, given the sea
breeze and the Piedmont trough still in place and still plenty of
deep moisture, scattered Pops are in order. With the higher heights
and an expansion of low level thickness, temps will reach at least
into the lower 90s before storms develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weekend will feature more typical summer weather, with the
Bermuda-Azores High and Piedmont trough to encompass the synoptic
pattern. Zonal flow aloft and mid level heights up near 5920-5940
meters will limit the amount of convection both Saturday and Sunday
to generally 30 or 40 percent. Low level thickness and 850 mb
temps are a little above normal, so max temps will peak around 93-
95F. With dew points in the lower and middle 70s will generate heat
indices as great as 103-105F each afternoon, but well below our July
1st Heat Advisory criteria of 110F or greater heat index.

An upstream cold front will attempt to approach early next week, but
the flow aloft stays fairly zonal, which indicates that the front
will struggle to get this far south. For that reason we won`t go any
higher than 30-40 Pops for Independence Day and next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main forecast problem for the next 24 hours revolves around
the potential for direct impacts from thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will approach the area and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north. These showers
and storms will then move southward and near the terminals by the
afternoon. Confidence is relatively high that both sites will see
a thunderstorm at some point. The time period for KCHS appears to
be 20z through 00z and the time period at KSAV appears to be 22z
through 02z. Have introduced a TEMPO group for TSRA with just MVFR
conditions for now. At least brief IFR conditions will be possible
as will some low end wind gusts. Once the storms push south and
dissipate overnight, there will be the potential for fog and/or
stratus development. The best chances for fog and/or stratus
appear to be beyond the current TAF window.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at least
periodically in SHRA/TSRA Wednesday through Thursday as a cold
front lingers nearby. While there are less chances for direct impacts
Friday and Saturday, there still does remain the potential for
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: A cold front will approach from the north and
northwest today and then stall in the vicinity of the coast
overnight. Winds will primarily be south to southwest through the
period, generally 15 knots or less. Seas will range 1-3 feet,
highest from 20 nm and beyond. We could see thunderstorms approach
the coast this evening and even push out into the waters tonight. As
such, mariners should be prepared for possible thunderstorms and
lightning and gusty winds.

Wednesday through Thursday: An oscillating cold front will be
situated near or just north of the marine community during the
middle of the week, with the Atlantic ridge suppressed across
Florida. A fairly light pressure pattern will prevail, although with
occasional small surges due to the sea breeze circulation and
nocturnal jetting, winds will be up near 15 kt at times. Seas for
the most part will average 2 or 3 ft through the period.

Given a rather slackened wind field both Wednesday and Thursday
morning, and the close by cold front and the expectation of
convergent cloud lines, there might be an enhanced risk for
waterspouts. There is also the potential for greater coverage of
showers and t-storms than what is typical.

Friday through Sunday: the Atlantic ridge will become the dominant
system, although inland a Piedmont trough will prevail. A general
southwest synoptic flow will prevail at or below 15 kt, with seas 3
ft or less.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The upcoming Perigee occurs early on Friday, and the New Moon
occurs on Independence Day. This could allow for another bout of
"King Tides" and we`ll see if enough departure will occur to
generate shallow coastal flooding late this week into early next
week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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000
FXUS62 KGSP 280747
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area today. Weak high
pressure should build in from the north for the middle to latter
part of the week. Another cold front is expected to push into the
area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday:  A large H5 anticyclone continues to
rotate atop the Desert Southwest while a trof digs across the
upper Midwest states into the Great Lakes region.  At the surface,
a cold front extends southward from a parent low pressure system
over Quebec into the Ohio valley while a broad area of high pressure
sweeps in behind over the upper MS/MO valleys.

Closer to home, light showers continue to push east past the I77
corridor this morning leaving patchy low stratus and fog behind.
An initial, yet weak front currently moving through the NC mtns
is progged to push east across the low terrain later this morning
with guidance favoring convection along/south of I85 as the boundary
intrudes into a destabilizing airmass.  Confidence in the amount of
buoyancy ahead of the front, and thus overall coverage, is low due
to the abundance of convective debris cloudiness about the region.
Coverage and intensity of said convection will no doubt depend on
how quickly the current low stratus erodes to allow for heating.
Regardless, convergence along the boundary will allow for said
convection and thus likely pops along/south of I85, tapering to
slight chances over the mountains.  Skies will lift/clear through
late morning from west to east as drier air begins to advect
in behind the weak fropa, thus pops will comply by lowering to
slight chances south of I85 by 00z, before all pops are removed
around midnight.  As for hazards, shear will increase with time
this morning however think model cape might be a bit overdone,
thus only a few strong storms are possible at best.  Temperatures
today will suffer as warming trends are slowed given this morning`s
stratus, thus the fcst features highs a few degrees below normal,
with overnight lows being near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, a weak surface boundary will remain stalled
just south and east of the CWFA through the period. A series of weak
waves will move along the front which will help keep a moist low
level easterly flow over the area. With afternoon heating, expect
weak instability to develop each afternoon. This will lead to
scattered diurnal convection near the boundary, with isolated
convection north and west of the boundary. Chance of severe storms
is low given the lack of shear and modest instability. However,
there will be a decent amount of DCAPE, so an isolated damaging
downburst cannot be ruled out. Highs Wednesday will be slightly
above normal then fall to right around normal on Thursday. Lows
follow the opposite pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday, Friday should be a similar day to Wednesday
and Thursday with the stalled boundary near the CWFA. Scattered to
isolated diurnal convection with temps slightly above normal.

A stronger more active cold front drops into the area from the NW on
Saturday and stalls across the area on Sunday. Waves of low pressure
move along the front keeping forcing and moisture over the area.
This will lead to increasing precip chances both days. The front
will sag south slightly on Monday, but a moist and unstable air mass
will remain over the area. Precip chances fall only slightly with
the southward movement of the front. Highs remain a little above
normal on Saturday, but fall to right around normal for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Vfr initially before a moist boundary layer yields lowering
mvfr stratus in the next few hours as shra departs to the east.
Said mvfr will prevail through daybreak with patchy fog possible
therefore a 3hr tempo was featured for 4sm visb restrictions.
Guidance remains insistent that convection will get going fairly
early in the morning as a front approaches from the NW.  Thus,
carried vcsh by 15z with a prob30 for tsra through late morning
into the early afternoon hours.  Beyond that, conditions should
improve rapidly and thus leading to solid vfr by late afternoon.
Winds will initialize light/calm our out of the south before
increasing and veering ahead of, and behind the intruding front.
Thus, am expecting northerly flow by late morning, however
confidence in wind shift timing is low.

SC Sites:  Trends very similar to that of KCLT above with mvfr
introduced over the next few hours as recent convection wains and
moves east.  Late morning convection continues to bet the primary
highlight with timing slightly adjusted vs KCLT, generally about
an hour ahead.  Otherwise, vfr will return behind the front this
afternoon.  Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by
late day.

At KAVL/KHKY:  Expecting patchy fog, perhaps dense, by morning
as the moist boundary layer decouples amidst departing shra/tsra,
thus tafs feature such with cigs in the lifr/ifr range.  Conditions
looks to improve around daybreak with shra/tsra chances being
highest at KHKY, thus prevailing shra vcts was featured, while
only vcsh was included at KAVL.  Vfr will return by late morning
to early afternoon as drier air advects in behind the front.
Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by mid/late day.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  91%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   63%     Med   75%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   76%     High  94%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   66%     Med   68%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   51%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  95%     Med   79%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



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000
FXUS62 KCAE 280605
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Potential for restrictions mainly mid morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves
toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or
lower at times.

Scattered showers early this morning focused in the western
and north Midlands in area of deeper moisture and stronger
instability. At the moment...it appears the showers will not
impact the terminals...or have minimal impact. All terminals have
VFR conditions at 06z...but some MVFR fog possible mainly at AGS
and OGB toward morning and this is supported by latest LAMP
guidance. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across central SC
and east central Georgia later this morning through the afternoon.
Mid level short wave trough...strong low level convergence near
the front and moderate instability will result in showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain threat which
may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at this time.
Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z to 21z can
be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift southeast of
the area during the evening but confidence low...Second stronger
front will be northwest of the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280605
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Potential for restrictions mainly mid morning through the
afternoon and possibly into the evening as a frontal system moves
toward the area and moisture increases. Expect numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today reducing visibility to mvfr or
lower at times.

Scattered showers early this morning focused in the western
and north Midlands in area of deeper moisture and stronger
instability. At the moment...it appears the showers will not
impact the terminals...or have minimal impact. All terminals have
VFR conditions at 06z...but some MVFR fog possible mainly at AGS
and OGB toward morning and this is supported by latest LAMP
guidance. Frontal boundary or trough will set up across central SC
and east central Georgia later this morning through the afternoon.
Mid level short wave trough...strong low level convergence near
the front and moderate instability will result in showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There is a heavy rain threat which
may result in IFR conditions but confidence low at this time.
Believe a period of MVFR due to thunderstorms from 18z to 21z can
be expected at times. Focus for convection may shift southeast of
the area during the evening but confidence low...Second stronger
front will be northwest of the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280559
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 150 AM EDT Tuesday:  Moderate to heavy showers were observed
via a band of convection that setup across portions of western
Greenville county over the last two hours.  Precipitation rates
were quite impressive with the heaviest cells as KGMU observed
nearly 3 inches of accumulation within an hour, totaling out to
just over 4 inches within 2 hours.  Reports of flooded roadways
did make it into the office shortly after midnight.  Fortunately,
this convection has waned and advected east therefore allowing
for any flash flooding to begin to recede.  Pops were tweaked to
account for recent radar trends.  Also made minor adjustments to
overnight hourly t/td per latest consshort, which didn`t yield
any significant changes.

Previous Discussion: Low temperatures tonight are forecast to
range from the mid 60s across the mtns to around 70 east. Early
morning fog will be possible over areas wet ground across the mtns
and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the
forecast area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will
slide off to the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Vfr initially before a moist boundary layer yields lowering
mvfr stratus in the next few hours as shra departs to the east.
Said mvfr will prevail through daybreak with patchy fog possible
therefore a 3hr tempo was featured for 4sm visb restrictions.
Guidance remains insistent that convection will get going fairly
early in the morning as a front approaches from the NW.  Thus,
carried vcsh by 15z with a prob30 for tsra through late morning
into the early afternoon hours.  Beyond that, conditions should
improve rapidly and thus leading to solid vfr by late afternoon.
Winds will initialize light/calm our out of the south before
increasing and veering ahead of, and behind the intruding front.
Thus, am expecting northerly flow by late morning, however
confidence in wind shift timing is low.

SC Sites:  Trends very similar to that of KCLT above with mvfr
introduced over the next few hours as recent convection wains and
moves east.  Late morning convection continues to bet the primary
highlight with timing slightly adjusted vs KCLT, generally about
an hour ahead.  Otherwise, vfr will return behind the front this
afternoon.  Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by
late day.

At KAVL/KHKY:  Expecting patchy fog, perhaps dense, by morning
as the moist boundary layer decouples amidst departing shra/tsra,
thus tafs feature such with cigs in the lifr/ifr range.  Conditions
looks to improve around daybreak with shra/tsra chances being
highest at KHKY, thus prevailing shra vcts was featured, while
only vcsh was included at KAVL.  Vfr will return by late morning
to early afternoon as drier air advects in behind the front.
Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by mid/late day.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  91%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   57%     Med   72%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   77%     High  89%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   69%     Med   67%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   52%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  82%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280559
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 150 AM EDT Tuesday:  Moderate to heavy showers were observed
via a band of convection that setup across portions of western
Greenville county over the last two hours.  Precipitation rates
were quite impressive with the heaviest cells as KGMU observed
nearly 3 inches of accumulation within an hour, totaling out to
just over 4 inches within 2 hours.  Reports of flooded roadways
did make it into the office shortly after midnight.  Fortunately,
this convection has waned and advected east therefore allowing
for any flash flooding to begin to recede.  Pops were tweaked to
account for recent radar trends.  Also made minor adjustments to
overnight hourly t/td per latest consshort, which didn`t yield
any significant changes.

Previous Discussion: Low temperatures tonight are forecast to
range from the mid 60s across the mtns to around 70 east. Early
morning fog will be possible over areas wet ground across the mtns
and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the
forecast area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will
slide off to the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Vfr initially before a moist boundary layer yields lowering
mvfr stratus in the next few hours as shra departs to the east.
Said mvfr will prevail through daybreak with patchy fog possible
therefore a 3hr tempo was featured for 4sm visb restrictions.
Guidance remains insistent that convection will get going fairly
early in the morning as a front approaches from the NW.  Thus,
carried vcsh by 15z with a prob30 for tsra through late morning
into the early afternoon hours.  Beyond that, conditions should
improve rapidly and thus leading to solid vfr by late afternoon.
Winds will initialize light/calm our out of the south before
increasing and veering ahead of, and behind the intruding front.
Thus, am expecting northerly flow by late morning, however
confidence in wind shift timing is low.

SC Sites:  Trends very similar to that of KCLT above with mvfr
introduced over the next few hours as recent convection wains and
moves east.  Late morning convection continues to bet the primary
highlight with timing slightly adjusted vs KCLT, generally about
an hour ahead.  Otherwise, vfr will return behind the front this
afternoon.  Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by
late day.

At KAVL/KHKY:  Expecting patchy fog, perhaps dense, by morning
as the moist boundary layer decouples amidst departing shra/tsra,
thus tafs feature such with cigs in the lifr/ifr range.  Conditions
looks to improve around daybreak with shra/tsra chances being
highest at KHKY, thus prevailing shra vcts was featured, while
only vcsh was included at KAVL.  Vfr will return by late morning
to early afternoon as drier air advects in behind the front.
Southerly winds will give way to veered N/NW flow by mid/late day.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  91%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   57%     Med   72%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   77%     High  89%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   69%     Med   67%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   52%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  82%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280545
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Quiet conditions continue across the forecast
area though not far upstream persistent shower and thunderstorm
activity has impacted much of the Midlands and CSRA. Fortunately,
this activity has been nearly stationary and has dissipated
significantly over the last hour or so. As such, the area should
remain dry through day break. No real concerns for the rest of the
night as dewpoint depressions around 4 degrees for many areas
should preclude the development of much if any fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main forecast problem for the next 24 hours revolves around
the potential for direct impacts from thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will approach the area and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north. These showers
and storms will then move southward and near the terminals by the
afternoon. Confidence is relatively high that both sites will see
a thunderstorm at some point. The time period for KCHS appears to
be 20z through 00z and the time period at KSAV appears to be 22z
through 02z. Have introduced a TEMPO group for TSRA with just MVFR
conditions for now. At least brief IFR conditions will be possible
as will some low end wind gusts. Once the storms push south and
dissipate overnight, there will be the potential for fog and/or
stratus development. The best chances for fog and/or stratus
appear to be beyond the current TAF window.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Wednesday through Thursday. Less
chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a risk for
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 2-3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280545
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Quiet conditions continue across the forecast
area though not far upstream persistent shower and thunderstorm
activity has impacted much of the Midlands and CSRA. Fortunately,
this activity has been nearly stationary and has dissipated
significantly over the last hour or so. As such, the area should
remain dry through day break. No real concerns for the rest of the
night as dewpoint depressions around 4 degrees for many areas
should preclude the development of much if any fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main forecast problem for the next 24 hours revolves around
the potential for direct impacts from thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will approach the area and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north. These showers
and storms will then move southward and near the terminals by the
afternoon. Confidence is relatively high that both sites will see
a thunderstorm at some point. The time period for KCHS appears to
be 20z through 00z and the time period at KSAV appears to be 22z
through 02z. Have introduced a TEMPO group for TSRA with just MVFR
conditions for now. At least brief IFR conditions will be possible
as will some low end wind gusts. Once the storms push south and
dissipate overnight, there will be the potential for fog and/or
stratus development. The best chances for fog and/or stratus
appear to be beyond the current TAF window.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Wednesday through Thursday. Less
chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a risk for
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 2-3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280208
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1008 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mainly dry although can`t rule out a few showers/weak thunderstorms
toward the Central Savannah River Area /CSRA/ closer to a pre-
frontal/lee side trough. Otherwise, expect a quiet night with
mainly some higher clouds which should prevent significant fog
development. Lows in the lower to mid 70s inland and closer to the
upper 70s at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR through 18Z Tuesday before chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase as a cold front approaches. There is also a
small chance for fog and/or stratus toward 12Z Tuesday but
probabilities are too low to include.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday night through Thursday.
Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a risk for
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 2-3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280208
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1008 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mainly dry although can`t rule out a few showers/weak thunderstorms
toward the Central Savannah River Area /CSRA/ closer to a pre-
frontal/lee side trough. Otherwise, expect a quiet night with
mainly some higher clouds which should prevent significant fog
development. Lows in the lower to mid 70s inland and closer to the
upper 70s at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR through 18Z Tuesday before chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase as a cold front approaches. There is also a
small chance for fog and/or stratus toward 12Z Tuesday but
probabilities are too low to include.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday night through Thursday.
Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a risk for
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 2-3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280207
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1007 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few
showers/storms possible across the CSRA and Central Midlands
through the period.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain across much of the
region overnight. Weak convergent boundaries remain across the
region, and the sea-breeze is pushing into the central Midlands.
Should still have some weak instability overnight, which could
bring a shower or two to taf sites through the night. Later
tonight a cold front will be approaching, and can not rule out an
isolated shower into the morning. Will include vcts at cae/cub for
current activity through 04z, with a tempo group through
03z. Additional shower activity near ags/dnl will also require
vcsh and possible tempo groups for light rain overnight.  Will
amend tafs overnight as necessary. Expect more high clouds with a
chance of some mvfr fog toward morning at AGS/OGB. Winds will be
light and variable through the period. A cold front pushing into
the region on Tuesday may bring an additional chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280207
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1007 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few
showers/storms possible across the CSRA and Central Midlands
through the period.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain across much of the
region overnight. Weak convergent boundaries remain across the
region, and the sea-breeze is pushing into the central Midlands.
Should still have some weak instability overnight, which could
bring a shower or two to taf sites through the night. Later
tonight a cold front will be approaching, and can not rule out an
isolated shower into the morning. Will include vcts at cae/cub for
current activity through 04z, with a tempo group through
03z. Additional shower activity near ags/dnl will also require
vcsh and possible tempo groups for light rain overnight.  Will
amend tafs overnight as necessary. Expect more high clouds with a
chance of some mvfr fog toward morning at AGS/OGB. Winds will be
light and variable through the period. A cold front pushing into
the region on Tuesday may bring an additional chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280127
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
927 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
0130 UTC Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the latest NAM
and ADJMAV guidance. Pops and QPF were adjusted per radar trends,
favoring the Blue Ridge and the Interstate 77 corridor. Only minor
changes were made to temperatures and dew points.

As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection will be slow to diminish and move out of the area
early this evening, and should increases again in the morning as a
cold front arrives. Guidance favors MVFR vsby around dawn. A
guidance blend favored a low VFR cig until late tonight, then MVFR,
returning to low VFR by midday. Winds will favor the south southeast
overnight. Guidance suggests winds veering to the northwest by
midday Tuesday as the front arrives, but with slow frontal
movement, veering may not occur until late.

Elsewhere: Another round of convection will move over the mountains
this evening, with the greatest impact on KAVL, although the
foothills sites may well be impacted. A relative lull is expected
overnight, but as a cold front approaches in the morning, convective
chances ramp up. Guidance favors MVFR vsbys around dawn, and MVFR
ceilings, falling to IFR in NC around dawn, and perhaps LIFR at
KAVL. Cigs return to low VFR by midday, and perhaps even high VFR
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  83%     High  84%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     Med   77%     High  88%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High  82%     High  93%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  93%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280127
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
927 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
0130 UTC Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the latest NAM
and ADJMAV guidance. Pops and QPF were adjusted per radar trends,
favoring the Blue Ridge and the Interstate 77 corridor. Only minor
changes were made to temperatures and dew points.

As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection will be slow to diminish and move out of the area
early this evening, and should increases again in the morning as a
cold front arrives. Guidance favors MVFR vsby around dawn. A
guidance blend favored a low VFR cig until late tonight, then MVFR,
returning to low VFR by midday. Winds will favor the south southeast
overnight. Guidance suggests winds veering to the northwest by
midday Tuesday as the front arrives, but with slow frontal
movement, veering may not occur until late.

Elsewhere: Another round of convection will move over the mountains
this evening, with the greatest impact on KAVL, although the
foothills sites may well be impacted. A relative lull is expected
overnight, but as a cold front approaches in the morning, convective
chances ramp up. Guidance favors MVFR vsbys around dawn, and MVFR
ceilings, falling to IFR in NC around dawn, and perhaps LIFR at
KAVL. Cigs return to low VFR by midday, and perhaps even high VFR
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  83%     High  84%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     Med   77%     High  88%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High  82%     High  93%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  93%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272338
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
738 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
The front will move into the area Tuesday and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool down slightly
through the middle of the week behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and
guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Will
continue with best pops through this evening across the western
Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to shift farther
ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight chance/chance pops
overnight. As for temperatures...once again went just above
guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight lows should be in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some
storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward the coast
Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day decreasing to
chance overnight. Models support general rainfall amounts of near
half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit instability and
insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few showers possible
across the CSRA and Central Midlands through the evening hours.
Have included a vcsh for AGS/DNL through 02z, and at CAE/CUB from
01z-02z.

Scattered cumulus and isolated showers will remain into this evening.
Weak convergent boundaries remain across the region, and the sea-breeze
is pushing into the eastern Midlands. Should still have some
lingering instability for the next hour or two, which could bring
a shower or two to taf sites through 02z. Later tonight a cold
front will be approaching, and can not rule out an isolated shower
through the night. Confidence not high enough to put in after 02z.
Afterwards, expect more high clouds with a chance of some mvfr
fog toward morning at AGS/OGB. Winds will be light and variable
through the period. A cold front pushing into the region on
Tuesday may bring an additional chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection possible each
afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272322
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mainly dry although can`t rule out a few showers/weak thunderstorms
toward central GA early this evening as the sea breeze pushes
inland. Otherwise, expect a quiet night with lows in the lower to
mid 70s inland and closer to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR through 18Z Tuesday before chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase as a cold front approaches. There is also a
small chance for fog and/or stratus toward 12Z Tuesday but
probabilities are too low to include.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/MS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272322
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mainly dry although can`t rule out a few showers/weak thunderstorms
toward central GA early this evening as the sea breeze pushes
inland. Otherwise, expect a quiet night with lows in the lower to
mid 70s inland and closer to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR through 18Z Tuesday before chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase as a cold front approaches. There is also a
small chance for fog and/or stratus toward 12Z Tuesday but
probabilities are too low to include.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/MS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272314
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
2315 UTC Update: Winds were updated to include the latest NAM
guidance. Pops and QPF were adjusted per radar trends, favoring the
eastern and wester portions of the area initially.

As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection will be slow to diminish and move out of the area
early this evening, and should increases again in the morning as a
cold front arrives. Guidance favors MVFR vsby around dawn. A
guidance blend favored a low VFR cig until late tonight, then MVFR,
returning to low VFR by midday. Winds will favor the south southeast
overnight. Guidance suggests winds veering to the northwest by
midday Tuesday as the front arrives, but with slow frontal
movement, veering may not occur until late.

Elsewhere: Another round of convection will move over the mountains
this evening, with the greatest impact on KAVL, although the
foothills sites may well be impacted. A relative lull is expected
overnight, but as a cold front approaches in the morning, convective
chances ramp up. Guidance favors MVFR vsbys around dawn, and MVFR
ceilings, falling to IFR in NC around dawn, and perhaps LIFR at
KAVL. Cigs return to low VFR by midday, and perhaps even high VFR
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   61%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   61%     High 100%     Med   65%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272314
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
2315 UTC Update: Winds were updated to include the latest NAM
guidance. Pops and QPF were adjusted per radar trends, favoring the
eastern and wester portions of the area initially.

As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection will be slow to diminish and move out of the area
early this evening, and should increases again in the morning as a
cold front arrives. Guidance favors MVFR vsby around dawn. A
guidance blend favored a low VFR cig until late tonight, then MVFR,
returning to low VFR by midday. Winds will favor the south southeast
overnight. Guidance suggests winds veering to the northwest by
midday Tuesday as the front arrives, but with slow frontal
movement, veering may not occur until late.

Elsewhere: Another round of convection will move over the mountains
this evening, with the greatest impact on KAVL, although the
foothills sites may well be impacted. A relative lull is expected
overnight, but as a cold front approaches in the morning, convective
chances ramp up. Guidance favors MVFR vsbys around dawn, and MVFR
ceilings, falling to IFR in NC around dawn, and perhaps LIFR at
KAVL. Cigs return to low VFR by midday, and perhaps even high VFR
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   61%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   61%     High 100%     Med   65%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272033
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
2040 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were raised along the Interstate 85
corridor per radar trends.

As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: As of 2 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
were located across the east facing slopes and across the upper
Savannah River Valley. The convection was developing within a larger
pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE across the region is generally
weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to 1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of
SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that the storms will favor a west to
east track, speeds expected to range from 10 to 20 kts. This
environment should support the convection to slide or develop east
of the mtns through the afternoon and into the evening hours. NAM
guidance indicates that a second band of convection over middle
KY/TN will cross the mtns late this evening into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may remain largely intact across the mtns,
but should fade east.

TAFs will feature periods of shra and tsra through 9z. The greatest
mention of TSRA will be given to KAVL, KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU. I will
indicate a broad mention of MVFR fog over KAVL and KHKY with the
arrival of drier mid level air late tonight. Light northwest winds
should remain during Tuesday morning, backing to SW by the afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High  83%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KAVL       High  90%     High  80%     Low   58%     High  93%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272004
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
404 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will lift back north on Friday as Atlantic high pressure
builds across the region. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Rest of this afternoon: Radar is showing a few showers across
portions of our area. Minimal moisture (especially in the mid
levels), limited instability (CAPE values barely reaching 1,000
J/kg), and a cap will keep the showers light and limited until
sunset.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft, ahead of the approaching trough from
the northwest. A cold front will begin to approach late, but the
forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may approach
our far western areas by daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, expect a
quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: A shortwave ridge will remain over the forecast area in
the morning with fairly deep westerly flow producing broad scale
subsidence. A cold front will be dropping into the SC Midlands by
noon. By afternoon, approaching shortwave energy will weaken the
ridge and help push the cold front into the forecast area. Modest
insolation across southeast GA in the morning and pre-frontal
compression will quickly push temps into the low to mid 90s before
the clouds and convection move in. Heat indices will briefly
approach 105 in a few spots.

The sea breeze will likely remain pinned near the coast during the
morning due to deep westerly flow. The associated subsidence
should minimize convective development prior to the front moving
into the area in the afternoon. We therefore lowered pops a bit
during the morning. Moisture rapidly increases in the afternoon
with Precipitable Water values approaching 2" late in the day.
Fairly good coverage of showers and tstms expected during the
latter half of the afternoon as the front moves in from the
northwest. Weak upper level jet divergence will impact northern
areas late in the day, potentially increasing coverage over the
Tri-County area. Convective parameters are not too impressive
though approximately 20 kt of 0-6 km shear and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE
values could support some multi-cell storms and isolated severe
storms. Weak steering flow and high PWs will support torrential
rainfall with anything that develops and the potential for
localized flooding issues.

Plenty of moisture, moderate instability, and low-level
convergence will persist into Tuesday evening, likely maintaining
decent coverage of convection until the effects of nighttime
stabilization cause activity to diminish. However, we maintained
20-30 pops through the night due to the persistent stalled front.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough will dominate the
eastern United States with several shortwaves rippling through the
area. The surface front will remain stalled across the forecast
area and moisture will remain high, supporting above-normal rain
chances. High temps will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90
Wednesday and lower to middle 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the area Friday through Sunday. This allows a westward
expansion of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge while a Piedmont
trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through 18Z Tuesday. The sea breeze has generated SHRA near
KCSH, so VCSH is included in it`s TAF until about 22Z. No
SHRA are expected for KSAV. There is a small chance for late
night fog and/or stratus at KCHS and KSAV. The probabilities are
too low to include in the current TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated surface
trough to our east will dissipate. This will result in a weak
surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to ease to 10 kt or
less and to become southerly. Seas will subside to 1-2 feet within
20 nm and 3 ft across AMZ374.

A slow-moving cold front drifts into the area late Tuesday and
lingers into Thursday before lifting back north on Friday. Fairly
light wind flow will maintain benign conditions outside of showers
and tstms. A more typical summer-time pattern returns next weekend
as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/MS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271903
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface analysis shows a weak convergence zone along the Savannah
River. This will be the focus for convection for the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach from the
west tonight and into Tuesday. The front will move into the area
Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remainder of the afternoon...
Convergence zone along the Savannah River will continue to be the
focus convection through the evening hours. Mesoanalysis indicates
this area with the best moisture and instability.

Tonight...the cold front will continue to push closer to the
region and guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning
hours. Will continue with best pops through this evening across
the western Midlands and CSRA...then the focus pops continue to
shift farther ewd toward daybreak. Have kept mainly slight
chance/chance pops overnight. As for temperatures...once again
went just above guidance based on current bias trends. Overnight
lows should be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front
approaches from the west. Abundant moisture is expected across the
area during the day with model precipitable water values peaking
near 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible
with some storms. The deepest moisture is expected to push toward
the coast Tuesday night so have likely pops during the day
decreasing to chance overnight. Models support general rainfall
amounts of near half an inch. Cloud cover is expected to limit
instability and insolation with high temperatures around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models have been consistent showing broad upper troughing over
the southeastern states through Thursday with the upper pattern
beginning to flatten out by Friday. At the surface, lee troughing
and a stationary front are expected to linger in the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Although the deepest moisture is expected along the
coast Wednesday and Thursday, ample moisture across the area
supports chance pops. The front will dissipate by the end of the
work week with the next front approaching over the weekend.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be near climatology in
the lower 90s, while warmer temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday in the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few showers and
thunderstorms possible across the CSRA through the evening hours.
Have included a vcts for AGS/CUB

Scattered cumulus and isolated showers/thunderstorms for this
afternoon. Overnight...expect more high clouds with a chance of
some fog toward morning at AGS/CUB/OGB. Once again...pops will
increase gradually overnight as cold front approaches the region.
Winds will be light and variable through the period. Did not
include any pops in the tafs...except for the vcts at AGS/CUB for
this afternoon and early evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday afternoon as a cold front crosses the region.
Otherwise, diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the
period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271851
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: As of 2 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
were located across the east facing slopes and across the upper
Savannah River Valley. The convection was developing within a larger
pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE across the region is generally
weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to 1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of
SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that the storms will favor a west to
east track, speeds expected to range from 10 to 20 kts. This
environment should support the convection to slide or develop east
of the mtns through the afternoon and into the evening hours. NAM
guidance indicates that a second band of convection over middle
KY/TN will cross the mtns late this evening into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may remain largely intact across the mtns,
but should fade east.

TAFs will feature periods of shra and tsra through 9z. The greatest
mention of TSRA will be given to KAVL, KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU. I will
indicate a broad mention of MVFR fog over KAVL and KHKY with the
arrival of drier mid level air late tonight. Light northwest winds
should remain during Tuesday morning, backing to SW by the afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  98%
KAVL       High  92%     Med   60%     Med   62%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271808
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing slopes and across the upper Savannah
River Valley. The convection was developing within a larger pool of
CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE across the region is generally weak,
500 J/kg across the mtns to 1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC.
Corfidi vectors indicate that the storms will favor a west to east
track, speeds expected to range from 10 to 20 kts. This environment
should support the convection to slide or develop east of the mtns
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. NAM guidance
indicates that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will
cross the mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This
activity may remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade
east.

As of 11 AM Monday: Latest SPC mesoscale analysis indicated a
gradient of CAPE from less than 500 J/kg along the I-40 corridor to
2000 J/kg across the upper Savannah River Valley. Recent radar
images showed isolated convection develop across the east facing
slopes of the mtns. Coverage across the mtns will increase through
the afternoon hours, with sct coverage spreading across the
foothills and Piedmont later this afternoon and evening. Steering
flow indicates that storms will move from west to east, with speeds
around 10 kts. It is possible that a few areas may see training and
slow moving cells, resulting in rounds of heavy downpours. I will
update the forecast to adjust PoPs to latest timing and placement of
convection and cloud cover. Overall, the current temperature
forecast appears on track.

As of 645 AM EDT Monday:  Tweaked pops across the southwest NC
mtns to reflect latest radar trends.  Also adjust t/td to better
align with recent obs.  Otherwise, current fcst remains on track
for this update.  No other changes were needed/made.

As of 330 AM EDT Monday:  A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states.  At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley.  Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis.  The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.

As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof.  Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region.  Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection.  Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain.  Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: As of 2 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
were located across the east facing slopes and across the upper
Savannah River Valley. The convection was developing within a larger
pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE across the region is generally
weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to 1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of
SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that the storms will favor a west to
east track, speeds expected to range from 10 to 20 kts. This
environment should support the convection to slide or develop east
of the mtns through the afternoon and into the evening hours. NAM
guidance indicates that a second band of convection over middle
KY/TN will cross the mtns late this evening into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may remain largely intact across the mtns,
but should fade east.

TAFs will feature periods of shra and tsra through 9z. The greatest
mention of TSRA will be given to KAVL, KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU. I will
indicate a broad mention of MVFR fog over KAVL and KHKY with the
arrival of drier mid level air late tonight. Light northwest winds
should remain during Tuesday morning, backing to SW by the afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High  82%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High  95%
KAVL       High  93%     Med   75%     Low   53%     High  86%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   79%     High  92%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High  97%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271729
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
129 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes with the afternoon update. Radar is showing showers
developing over Charleston County and that matches up well with
the ongoing forecast.

For the remainder of the day, the upper level pattern will
feature upper level ridging that continues to extend eastward
across the area from the large anticyclone that resides near the
four corners region. For the most part, NVA will prevail, though
there are some model progs that show a very weak embedded
shortwave that pushes mainly off the North Carolina coast. At the
surface, the weak surface low and associated trough will gradually
dissipate leaving behind a rather nebulous pattern dominated by
mainly onshore easterly flow. Model soundings and time heights
reveal a very dry mid/upper level atmosphere. Also, temperature
profiles in the mid/upper levels are quite warm and serve to
effectively cap the atmosphere. Even without the cap the
soundings indicate puny lapse rates and CAPE values struggling to
reach 1,000 J/kg. As such, convective activity is expected to be
quite limited and POPs have been limited to just slight chance
for a small area mainly along the South Carolina coast.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18Z Tuesday. Convection is developing along
the sea breeze in SC, so added TSRA to the KCHS TAF. Brief MVFR
is possible as the convection passes over the airport. No
convection is expected for KSAV. There is also a small
chance for late night fog and/or stratus at KCHS and KSAV. The
probabilities are too low to include in the current TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough just to our east will gradually dissipate through
the day. Winds along the land/sea interface are increasing this
afternoon with diurnal heating and could reach 15-20 knots for
the Charleston Harbor. Then overnight winds will diminish to 10
knots or less and become southerly. Seas will be 1-3 feet,
highest at 20 nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271729
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
129 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes with the afternoon update. Radar is showing showers
developing over Charleston County and that matches up well with
the ongoing forecast.

For the remainder of the day, the upper level pattern will
feature upper level ridging that continues to extend eastward
across the area from the large anticyclone that resides near the
four corners region. For the most part, NVA will prevail, though
there are some model progs that show a very weak embedded
shortwave that pushes mainly off the North Carolina coast. At the
surface, the weak surface low and associated trough will gradually
dissipate leaving behind a rather nebulous pattern dominated by
mainly onshore easterly flow. Model soundings and time heights
reveal a very dry mid/upper level atmosphere. Also, temperature
profiles in the mid/upper levels are quite warm and serve to
effectively cap the atmosphere. Even without the cap the
soundings indicate puny lapse rates and CAPE values struggling to
reach 1,000 J/kg. As such, convective activity is expected to be
quite limited and POPs have been limited to just slight chance
for a small area mainly along the South Carolina coast.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18Z Tuesday. Convection is developing along
the sea breeze in SC, so added TSRA to the KCHS TAF. Brief MVFR
is possible as the convection passes over the airport. No
convection is expected for KSAV. There is also a small
chance for late night fog and/or stratus at KCHS and KSAV. The
probabilities are too low to include in the current TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough just to our east will gradually dissipate through
the day. Winds along the land/sea interface are increasing this
afternoon with diurnal heating and could reach 15-20 knots for
the Charleston Harbor. Then overnight winds will diminish to 10
knots or less and become southerly. Seas will be 1-3 feet,
highest at 20 nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271522
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1122 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will develop in the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move into the
area Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar composite already showing a few shra/tsra
developing along the sea breeze and over the mountains of NC/GA
and into SC. Obs this morning indicate a weak surface trough
across the Upstate. Models indicate a weak trof in the vicinity of
the Upstate or Midlands by this afternoon. WV loop continues to
show mid/upper level ridging across the area. This will likely be
a limiting factor in afternoon convection. Have continued with
chance pops with higher values in the south and west. The models
show mainly weak instability associated with the upper ridging
supporting a diminished threat of severe thunderstorms, but dry
mid-level air may aid downdrafts indicating near-severe wind gusts
could possibly occur. Did bump up afternoon temperatures based on
a consistent bias of high temperatures above guidance over the
past week or so. Already off to a warm start with many areas in
the middle/upper 80s.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase tonight because of moisture
convergence into a weak pre-frontal trough plus increased moisture
and instability ahead of a shortwave trough in the mid-level
northwest flow. The NAM and GFS MOS support chance pops with the
greater values in the northwest section closer to deeper moisture.
The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent depicting high moisture in the
forecast area Tuesday associated with a cold front. The front is
shown lingering in the area Tuesday night but deeper moisture
shifts east of the area ahead of upper troughing. The guidance
consensus supports likely pops Tuesday and chance Tuesday night.
An average of the GFS and NAM and most SREF members indicate general
rainfall around 0.4 of an inch. However, both the GFS and NAM
have precipitable water increasing over 2 inches so heavy
rainfall may occur with some of the thunderstorms. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models show a front lingering near the area through the
medium-range period but deepest moisture appears to remain east
of the area ahead of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have
chance pops during the period. The MOS supports temperatures near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few showers and
thunderstorms later today/tonight could result in
restrictions...but confidence low on location.

Scattered cumulus by this afternoon. Air mass weakly to
moderately unstable this afternoon/evening. High resolution models
suggest focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorms may be in the
Piedmont and Upstate region and more scattered/isolated in the
Midlands and CSRA. Will leave thunder out of terminals although
some threat late in the period. Winds will be variable less than
10 knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise,
diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271510
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in tonight. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying. Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday: Latest SPC mesoscale analysis indicated a
gradient of CAPE from less than 500 J/kg along the I-40 corridor to
2000 J/kg across the upper Savannah River Valley. Recent radar
images showed isolated convection develop across the east facing
slopes of the mtns. Coverage across the mtns will increase through
the afternoon hours, with sct coverage spreading across the
foothills and Piedmont later this afternoon and evening. Steering
flow indicates that storms will move from west to east, with speeds
around 10 kts. It is possible that a few areas may see training and
slow moving cells, resulting in rounds of heavy downpours. I will
update the forecast to adjust PoPs to latest timing and placement of
convection and cloud cover. Overall, the current temperature
forecast appears on track.

As of 645 AM EDT Monday:  Tweaked pops across the southwest NC
mtns to reflect latest radar trends.  Also adjust t/td to better
align with recent obs.  Otherwise, current fcst remains on track
for this update.  No other changes were needed/made.

As of 330 AM EDT Monday:  A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states.  At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley.  Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis.  The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.

As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof.  Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region.  Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection.  Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain.  Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday: A prefrontal trough will stall just south and
east of the CWFA Tuesday as the cold front drops to near the spine
of the Appalachians. Moisture pooling along the prefrontal trough
will keep the best instability and forcing over the southern and
eastern CWFA. Therefore...have likely PoP south of I-85 with chance
elsewhere. Moderate instability may result southeast of I-85 with
moderate shear possible as well. Cannot rule out a severe storm, but
there is some uncertainty on where the best instability and shear
set up, so it is still to early to tell if severe storms will be
more scattered or organized. Drier air moves in Tuesday night as the
cold front moves in from the NW keeping a diurnal trend to the
convection. Highs will be near normal northern tier and below normal
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal.

The cold front stalls across the area Wednesday with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front. Moisture, and resulting
instability, will be greater south and east of the front with lower
amounts to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance on
the location of the front and resulting convection. Guidance blend
comes up with scattered convection from the Charlotte Metro area
southwest to the Lakelands, with isolated convection to the north.
Highs will return to near normal levels with lows nearly steady near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday: Guidance in good agreement aloft showing
eastern trough Rocky Mountain ridge remaining in place through the
period. At the surface, a frontal system remains stalled near or
over the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops into the area
Saturday and merges with the stalled front on Sunday. Moisture and
instability will favor the eastern and southern portions of the CWFA
closer to the stalled front on Thursday and Friday. Expect mainly
diurnal scattered convection there with isolated convection to the
west. Precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as the second
front drops into the area with increasing moisture inflow across the
area and good forcing. Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection
Saturday with likely coverage mountains and good chance elsewhere on
Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on the weekend systems and there
could be enough forcing and shear for organized convection, and
enough moisture and potentially training cells to increase the flood
potential. Near normal temps Thursday will rise a little above
normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back to near normal for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure starting its retreat to the east allowing southerly
flow to initiate this morning.  Sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through the first few hours of the taf cycle before
low vfr cu prevails.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC
this afternoon, spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont
by late afternoon to early evening.  Therefore taf features
lowering vfr stratocu within a tsra tempo from 22-02z, ahead of a
prevailing shra with a tsra prob30 through early morning. Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current low stratus along the Blue
Ridge southward into northeast GA and the SC Upstate, will persist
through much of the morning however lifting slightly within the next
2 hours.  Opted to remove any fog mention from previous taf set as
persistent sky cover has worked to keep td depressions elevated.
As stated above, convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of
a prefrontal trof, before sweeping east over the remainder of the
region this afternoon/evening.  All sites feature shra/vcts and
tempos for tsra with timing based upon cam consensus as well as
latest nam.  Winds will remain generally light and southerly at
all sites with gusting possible adjacent to deeper convection,
slowly veering to the wsw late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late
week leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and
morning fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  92%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAVL       High 100%     High  98%     Med   67%     Med   69%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  88%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271443
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1043 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes with the morning update. Radar continues to show
a few showers brushing the Charleston County coast and more
further offshore. These are associated with a subtle surface
trough and will continue to mainly impact the coastal waters.

For the remainder of the day, the upper level pattern will
feature upper level ridging that continues to extend eastward
across the area from the large anticyclone that resides near the
four corners region. For the most part, NVA will prevail, though
there are some model progs that show a very weak embedded
shortwave that pushes mainly off the North Carolina coast. At the
surface, the weak surface low and associated trough will gradually
dissipate leaving behind a rather nebulous pattern dominated by
mainly onshore easterly flow. Model soundings and time heights
reveal a very dry mid/upper level atmosphere. Also, temperature
profiles in the mid/upper levels are quite warm and serve to
effectively cap the atmosphere. Even without the cap the
soundings indicate puny lapse rates and CAPE values struggling to
reach 1,000 J/kg. As such, convective activity is expected to be
quite limited and POPs have been limited to just slight chance
for a small area mainly along the South Carolina coast. For
temperatures, the onshore flow will help to keep areas further
east a touch cooler and highs there should top out right around
90 degrees. Further inland, highs up to around 94 or 95 will be
possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 12z Tuesday. There is a small chance for SHRA
or TSRA at KCHS this afternoon, resulting from the sea breeze.
But the probabilities are too low to include in the current TAF.
There is also a small probability for late night fog and/or
stratus at KCHS and KSAV. Again, the probabilities are too low to
include in the current TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough just to our east will gradually dissipate through
the day. Winds will become easterly this afternoon and then southerly
overnight. Winds along the land/sea interface will increase this
afternoon with diurnal heating, and could increase to as high as
15-20 knots for the Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then
overnight winds will diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be
1-3 feet, highest at 20 nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271144
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
744 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
12z Tuesday. However, an area of stratus will impact the KCHS
terminal this morning, resulting in a period of MVFR ceilings,
maybe even briefly down into the IFR range. Given the proximity
to a wave of low pressure over the nearby Atlantic and the sea
breeze boundary, there is then a chance for SHRA or maybe TSRA at
the terminals late this morning and afternoon, mainly at KCHS. But
the probabilities are too low to include in the forecast. Maybe a
little late night fog and/or stratus at both sites, but for now
nothing worse than a few clouds at 1500 ft.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271128
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
728 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
12z Tuesday. Given the proximity to a wave of low pressure over
the nearby Atlantic and the sea breeze boundary, there is a
chance for SHRA or maybe TSRA at the terminals late this morning
and afternoon, mainly at KCHS. But the probabilities are too low
to include in the forecast. Maybe a little late night fog and/or
stratus at both sites, but for now nothing worse than a few
clouds at 1500 ft.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271128
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
728 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
12z Tuesday. Given the proximity to a wave of low pressure over
the nearby Atlantic and the sea breeze boundary, there is a
chance for SHRA or maybe TSRA at the terminals late this morning
and afternoon, mainly at KCHS. But the probabilities are too low
to include in the forecast. Maybe a little late night fog and/or
stratus at both sites, but for now nothing worse than a few
clouds at 1500 ft.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271106
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
706 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in tonight. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying. Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday:  Tweaked pops across the southwest NC
mtns to reflect latest radar trends.  Also adjust t/td to better
align with recent obs.  Otherwise, current fcst remains on track
for this update.  No other changes were needed/made.

As of 330 AM EDT Monday:  A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states.  At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley.  Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis.  The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.

As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof.  Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region.  Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection.  Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain.  Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday: A prefrontal trough will stall just south and
east of the CWFA Tuesday as the cold front drops to near the spine
of the Appalachians. Moisture pooling along the prefrontal trough
will keep the best instability and forcing over the southern and
eastern CWFA. Therefore...have likely PoP south of I-85 with chance
elsewhere. Moderate instability may result southeast of I-85 with
moderate shear possible as well. Cannot rule out a severe storm, but
there is some uncertainty on where the best instability and shear
set up, so it is still to early to tell if severe storms will be
more scattered or organized. Drier air moves in Tuesday night as the
cold front moves in from the NW keeping a diurnal trend to the
convection. Highs will be near normal northern tier and below normal
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal.

The cold front stalls across the area Wednesday with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front. Moisture, and resulting
instability, will be greater south and east of the front with lower
amounts to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance on
the location of the front and resulting convection. Guidance blend
comes up with scattered convection from the Charlotte Metro area
southwest to the Lakelands, with isolated convection to the north.
Highs will return to near normal levels with lows nearly steady near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday: Guidance in good agreement aloft showing
eastern trough Rocky Mountain ridge remaining in place through the
period. At the surface, a frontal system remains stalled near or
over the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops into the area
Saturday and merges with the stalled front on Sunday. Moisture and
instability will favor the eastern and southern portions of the CWFA
closer to the stalled front on Thursday and Friday. Expect mainly
diurnal scattered convection there with isolated convection to the
west. Precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as the second
front drops into the area with increasing moisture inflow across the
area and good forcing. Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection
Saturday with likely coverage mountains and good chance elsewhere on
Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on the weekend systems and there
could be enough forcing and shear for organized convection, and
enough moisture and potentially training cells to increase the flood
potential. Near normal temps Thursday will rise a little above
normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back to near normal for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure starting its retreat to the east allowing southerly
flow to initiate this morning.  Sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through the first few hours of the taf cycle before
low vfr cu prevails.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC
this afternoon, spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont
by late afternoon to early evening.  Therefore taf features
lowering vfr stratocu within a tsra tempo from 22-02z, ahead of a
prevailing shra with a tsra prob30 through early morning. Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current low stratus along the Blue
Ridge southward into northeast GA and the SC Upstate, will persist
through much of the morning however lifting slightly within the next
2 hours.  Opted to remove any fog mention from previous taf set as
persistent sky cover has worked to keep td depressions elevated.
As stated above, convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of
a prefrontal trof, before sweeping east over the remainder of the
region this afternoon/evening.  All sites feature shra/vcts and
tempos for tsra with timing based upon cam consensus as well as
latest nam.  Winds will remain generally light and southerly at
all sites with gusting possible adjacent to deeper convection,
slowly veering to the wsw late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late
week leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and
morning fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   66%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271106
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
706 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in tonight. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying. Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday:  Tweaked pops across the southwest NC
mtns to reflect latest radar trends.  Also adjust t/td to better
align with recent obs.  Otherwise, current fcst remains on track
for this update.  No other changes were needed/made.

As of 330 AM EDT Monday:  A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states.  At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley.  Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis.  The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.

As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof.  Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region.  Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection.  Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain.  Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday: A prefrontal trough will stall just south and
east of the CWFA Tuesday as the cold front drops to near the spine
of the Appalachians. Moisture pooling along the prefrontal trough
will keep the best instability and forcing over the southern and
eastern CWFA. Therefore...have likely PoP south of I-85 with chance
elsewhere. Moderate instability may result southeast of I-85 with
moderate shear possible as well. Cannot rule out a severe storm, but
there is some uncertainty on where the best instability and shear
set up, so it is still to early to tell if severe storms will be
more scattered or organized. Drier air moves in Tuesday night as the
cold front moves in from the NW keeping a diurnal trend to the
convection. Highs will be near normal northern tier and below normal
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal.

The cold front stalls across the area Wednesday with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front. Moisture, and resulting
instability, will be greater south and east of the front with lower
amounts to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance on
the location of the front and resulting convection. Guidance blend
comes up with scattered convection from the Charlotte Metro area
southwest to the Lakelands, with isolated convection to the north.
Highs will return to near normal levels with lows nearly steady near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday: Guidance in good agreement aloft showing
eastern trough Rocky Mountain ridge remaining in place through the
period. At the surface, a frontal system remains stalled near or
over the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops into the area
Saturday and merges with the stalled front on Sunday. Moisture and
instability will favor the eastern and southern portions of the CWFA
closer to the stalled front on Thursday and Friday. Expect mainly
diurnal scattered convection there with isolated convection to the
west. Precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as the second
front drops into the area with increasing moisture inflow across the
area and good forcing. Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection
Saturday with likely coverage mountains and good chance elsewhere on
Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on the weekend systems and there
could be enough forcing and shear for organized convection, and
enough moisture and potentially training cells to increase the flood
potential. Near normal temps Thursday will rise a little above
normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back to near normal for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure starting its retreat to the east allowing southerly
flow to initiate this morning.  Sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through the first few hours of the taf cycle before
low vfr cu prevails.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC
this afternoon, spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont
by late afternoon to early evening.  Therefore taf features
lowering vfr stratocu within a tsra tempo from 22-02z, ahead of a
prevailing shra with a tsra prob30 through early morning. Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current low stratus along the Blue
Ridge southward into northeast GA and the SC Upstate, will persist
through much of the morning however lifting slightly within the next
2 hours.  Opted to remove any fog mention from previous taf set as
persistent sky cover has worked to keep td depressions elevated.
As stated above, convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of
a prefrontal trof, before sweeping east over the remainder of the
region this afternoon/evening.  All sites feature shra/vcts and
tempos for tsra with timing based upon cam consensus as well as
latest nam.  Winds will remain generally light and southerly at
all sites with gusting possible adjacent to deeper convection,
slowly veering to the wsw late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late
week leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and
morning fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   66%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271049
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
649 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
06z Tuesday. Through daybreak, we could see some patches of MVFR
ceilings or even some light fog, but probabilities appear to be
too low to include in the forecast. A few surrounding observations
have reported some restrictions, but overall the fog and stratus
has been rather transient. Then for the afternoon, very low
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for impacts
would be at KCHS, but even there the probabilities are too low to
include in the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271049
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
649 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
06z Tuesday. Through daybreak, we could see some patches of MVFR
ceilings or even some light fog, but probabilities appear to be
too low to include in the forecast. A few surrounding observations
have reported some restrictions, but overall the fog and stratus
has been rather transient. Then for the afternoon, very low
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for impacts
would be at KCHS, but even there the probabilities are too low to
include in the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271028
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
628 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will develop in the forecast area today
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move into the
area Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisture convergence associated with the diffuse front near the
south part of the forecast area has helped cause a few showers
early this morning. This feature may linger through the day.
There may also be a greater chance in the west part this afternoon
as the models develop a weak trough developing ahead of the
approaching cold front. Still, upper ridging should help limit
coverage. Forecasted chance pops with higher values in the south
and west. The models show mainly weak instability associated with
the upper ridging supporting a diminished threat of severe
thunderstorms, but dry mid-level air may aid downdrafts
indicating near-severe wind gusts could possibly occur. Forecasted
highs above the guidance consensus because of the recent bias.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase tonight because of moisture
convergence into a weak pre-frontal trough plus increased moisture
and instability ahead of a shortwave trough in the mid-level
northwest flow. The NAM and GFS MOS support chance pops with the
greater values in the northwest section closer to deeper moisture.
The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent depicting high moisture in the
forecast area Tuesday associated with a cold front. The front is
shown lingering in the area Tuesday night but deeper moisture
shifts east of the area ahead of upper troughing. The guidance
consensus supports likely pops Tuesday and chance Tuesday night.
An average of the GFS and NAM and most SREF members indicate general
rainfall around 0.4 of an inch. However, both the GFS and NAM
have precipitable water increasing over 2 inches so heavy
rainfall may occur with some of the thunderstorms. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models show a front lingering near the area through the
medium-range period but deepest moisture appears to remain east
of the area ahead of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have
chance pops during the period. The MOS supports temperatures near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR should dominate through the period although a few showers and
thunderstorms later today/tonight could result in
restrictions...but confidence low on location.

Mainly thin mid and high level clouds this morning. AGS/OGB will
have MVFR visibility briefly until 13z...then VFR. Scattered
cumulus by this afternoon. Air mass weakly to moderately unstable
this afternoon/evening. High resolution models suggest focus for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms may be in the Piedmont and Upstate
region and more scattered/isolated in the Midlands and CSRA. Will
leave thunder out of terminals although some threat late in the
period. Winds will be variable less than 10 knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise,
diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270825
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
425 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak trough will develop in the forecast area today
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move into the
area Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisture convergence associated with the diffuse front near the
south part of the forecast area has helped cause a few showers
early this morning. This feature may linger through the day.
There may also be a greater chance in the west part this afternoon
as the models develop a weak trough developing ahead of the
approaching cold front. Still, upper ridging should help limit
coverage. Forecasted chance pops with higher values in the south
and west. The models show mainly weak instability associated with
the upper ridging supporting a diminished threat of severe
thunderstorms, but dry mid-level air may aid downdrafts
indicating near-severe wind gusts could possibly occur. Forecasted
highs above the guidance consensus because of the recent bias.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase tonight because of moisture
convergence into a weak pre-frontal trough plus increased moisture
and instability ahead of a shortwave trough in the mid-level
northwest flow. The NAM and GFS MOS support chance pops with the
greater values in the northwest section closer to deeper moisture.
The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent depicting high moisture in the
forecast area Tuesday associated with a cold front. The front is
shown lingering in the area Tuesday night but deeper moisture
shifts east of the area ahead of upper troughing. The guidance
consensus supports likely pops Tuesday and chance Tuesday night.
An average of the GFS and NAM and most SREF members indicate general
rainfall around 0.4 of an inch. However, both the GFS and NAM
have precipitable water increasing over 2 inches so heavy
rainfall may occur with some of the thunderstorms. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models show a front lingering near the area through the
medium-range period but deepest moisture appears to remain east
of the area ahead of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have
chance pops during the period. The MOS supports temperatures near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog at AGS/OGB.

Mainly thin high clouds across the region overnight. Some stratus
possible mainly near the coast overnight. Guidance suggesting
mainly VFR through morning except MVFR/IFR fog at AGS/OGB. Large
dew point depressions at other sites and no support in lamp/mos
guidance...so fog not forecast. For AGS/OGB...some support for
fog in latest HRRR model/lamp 09z to 13z. Scattered cumulus in the
afternoon...winds variable mainly less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise,
diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270825
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
425 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak trough will develop in the forecast area today
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move into the
area Tuesday and bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisture convergence associated with the diffuse front near the
south part of the forecast area has helped cause a few showers
early this morning. This feature may linger through the day.
There may also be a greater chance in the west part this afternoon
as the models develop a weak trough developing ahead of the
approaching cold front. Still, upper ridging should help limit
coverage. Forecasted chance pops with higher values in the south
and west. The models show mainly weak instability associated with
the upper ridging supporting a diminished threat of severe
thunderstorms, but dry mid-level air may aid downdrafts
indicating near-severe wind gusts could possibly occur. Forecasted
highs above the guidance consensus because of the recent bias.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase tonight because of moisture
convergence into a weak pre-frontal trough plus increased moisture
and instability ahead of a shortwave trough in the mid-level
northwest flow. The NAM and GFS MOS support chance pops with the
greater values in the northwest section closer to deeper moisture.
The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent depicting high moisture in the
forecast area Tuesday associated with a cold front. The front is
shown lingering in the area Tuesday night but deeper moisture
shifts east of the area ahead of upper troughing. The guidance
consensus supports likely pops Tuesday and chance Tuesday night.
An average of the GFS and NAM and most SREF members indicate general
rainfall around 0.4 of an inch. However, both the GFS and NAM
have precipitable water increasing over 2 inches so heavy
rainfall may occur with some of the thunderstorms. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models show a front lingering near the area through the
medium-range period but deepest moisture appears to remain east
of the area ahead of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have
chance pops during the period. The MOS supports temperatures near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog at AGS/OGB.

Mainly thin high clouds across the region overnight. Some stratus
possible mainly near the coast overnight. Guidance suggesting
mainly VFR through morning except MVFR/IFR fog at AGS/OGB. Large
dew point depressions at other sites and no support in lamp/mos
guidance...so fog not forecast. For AGS/OGB...some support for
fog in latest HRRR model/lamp 09z to 13z. Scattered cumulus in the
afternoon...winds variable mainly less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise,
diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270748
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
348 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in tonight. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying. Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday:  A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states.  At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley.  Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis.  The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.

As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof.  Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region.  Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection.  Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain.  Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday: A prefrontal trough will stall just south and
east of the CWFA Tuesday as the cold front drops to near the spine
of the Appalachians. Moisture pooling along the prefrontal trough
will keep the best instability and forcing over the southern and
eastern CWFA. Therefore...have likely PoP south of I-85 with chance
elsewhere. Moderate instability may result southeast of I-85 with
moderate shear possible as well. Cannot rule out a severe storm, but
there is some uncertainty on where the best instability and shear
set up, so it is still to early to tell if severe storms will be
more scattered or organized. Drier air moves in Tuesday night as the
cold front moves in from the NW keeping a diurnal trend to the
convection. Highs will be near normal northern tier and below normal
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal.

The cold front stalls across the area Wednesday with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front. Moisture, and resulting
instability, will be greater south and east of the front with lower
amounts to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance on
the location of the front and resulting convection. Guidance blend
comes up with scattered convection from the Charlotte Metro area
southwest to the Lakelands, with isolated convection to the north.
Highs will return to near normal levels with lows nearly steady near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday: Guidance in good agreement aloft showing
eastern trough Rocky Mountain ridge remaining in place through the
period. At the surface, a frontal system remains stalled near or
over the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops into the area
Saturday and merges with the stalled front on Sunday. Moisture and
instability will favor the eastern and southern portions of the CWFA
closer to the stalled front on Thursday and Friday. Expect mainly
diurnal scattered convection there with isolated convection to the
west. Precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as the second
front drops into the area with increasing moisture inflow across the
area and good forcing. Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection
Saturday with likely coverage mountains and good chance elsewhere on
Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on the weekend systems and there
could be enough forcing and shear for organized convection, and
enough moisture and potentially training cells to increase the flood
potential. Near normal temps Thursday will rise a little above
normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back to near normal for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure presently in control will retreat to the east later
this morning.  Thus, current sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through daybreak before low vfr cu prevails during the
day.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC this afternoon,
spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont by late afternoon
to early evening.  Therefore taf features lowering vfr stratocu
within a tsra prob30, all ahead of prevailing tsra after sunset per
cam guide consensus.  Prevailing tsra is removed late in the taf
giving way to vcsh when confidence in coverage is reduced.  Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current sat diff product features
thicker low stratus along the Blue Ridge, extending southward into
northeast GA and the western Upstate.  Thus, all SC sites as well as
KAVL feature mvfr cigs just ahead of daybreak per guidance rh
fields.  Otherwise, did continue with fog mention at KAVL and KHKY,
with the greatest restrictions in the mtn valleys.  As stated above,
convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of a prefrontal trof,
before sweeping east over the remainder of the region this
afternoon/evening.  All sites feature prob30s for tsra amidst low
vfr to high mvfr stratocu, eventually giving way to -shra with vcts
as confidence in coverage depletes late in the period.  Winds will
remain generally light and southerly at all sites with gusting
possible adjacent to deeper convection, slowly veering to the wsw
late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week
leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and morning
fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  84%     High  84%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   58%     Med   69%     Med   62%     Med   65%
KHKY       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  84%     High  84%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  87%     High  96%     High 100%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270738
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
338 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area today.
Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary and lingering nearby Wednesday and
Thursday, before dissipating by Friday. Atlantic high pressure
will then extend across the area next weekend, before another cold
front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The morning will start off with a few showers and/or
thunderstorms potentially brushing the Charleston County coast.
This shower and thunderstorm activity is originating offshore
within a subtle surface trough and will continue to mainly impact
the adjacent coastal waters. For the remainder of the day, the
upper level pattern will feature upper level ridging that
continues to extend eastward across the area from the large
anticyclone that resides near the four corners region. For the
most part, NVA will prevail, though there are some model progs
that show a very weak embedded shortwave that pushes mainly off
the North Carolina coast. At the surface, the weak surface low and
associated trough will gradually dissipate leaving behind a rather
nebulous pattern dominated by mainly onshore easterly flow. Model
soundings and time heights reveal a very dry mid/upper level
atmosphere. Also, temperature profiles in the mid/upper levels are
quite warm and serve to effectively cap the atmosphere from a few
models. Even on the soundings that aren`t capped, lapse rates are
putrid and CAPE values struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. As such,
convective activity is expected to be quite limited and pops have
been limited to just slight chance for a small area mainly along
the South Carolina coast. For temperatures, the onshore flow will
help to keep areas further east a touch cooler and highs there
should top out right around 90. Further inland, highs up to around
94 or 95 will be possible for Allendale to Statesboro and other
similar points.

Tonight: The forecast area will be solidly positioned within a
large region of NVA aloft ahead of the approaching trough from the
northwest. An associated cold front will begin to approach late,
but the forecast is dry. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may
make a run for the far western zones by daybreak Tuesday.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Mid and upper level ridging will break down atop the local
area as the east coast trough begins to re-establish itself as
strong short wave energy moves through the Great Lakes. This forces
a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians early in the period
to approach from the northwest. Compressional heating in advance of
the cold front will allow for temps of 90F north to 95F south,
before cloud cover and rain chances climb in response to the
approaching front. Heat indices will peak at 100-103F south of I-16
in Georgia, but not high enough for our pre-July 1 criteria of 105F
or greater for a Heat Advisory. Lift and convergence as the front
draw closer will have ample moisture to work with as PWAT reaches as
high as 2 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convective rain chances will build during the heating of the
afternoon, climbing into the 50-60% range northwest tier, with 30-
40% probabilities elsewhere. A sluggish storm motion and the elevated
moisture content supports a risk for localized flooding concerns in
persistent showers/t-storms. While the overall thermodynamics are
not overly impressive, dew points in the lower and middle 70s will
support steep low level lapse rates and that along with 20-25 kt of
0-6km shear might supply just enough of a boost to some of the
updrafts to support gusty winds with as much DCAPE as 800-1000 J/kg.

Wednesday through Thursday: The large scale pattern aloft will
feature a broad trough in the east and ridging in the west. The
surface cold front will struggle to make too much progress to the
south-southeast as it starts to become aligned parallel to to flow
upstairs. Thus we look for that front to waver over or near the
local zones during the middle of the week. While it is certainly
difficult to pinpoint if and when any short waves will slide through
the trough, better mid level lapse rates with the lower heights
aloft and at least seasonable PWAT will support a better than
average risk for showers and t-storms. Dependent upon where the cold
front is able to establish itself Wednesday and Thursday, there is
also the nearby proximity to the RRQ of the upper level jet and
indications of modest QG forcing per various models. That could
support even higher probabilities than the 40-50 Pop now shown in
the forecast. With the higher rain chances does come slightly lower
temps, with highs both days before the onset of convection to peak
a degree or two either side of 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft flattens out with a quasi-zonal flow to develop
over the local vicinity by late Friday into Sunday, with the cold
front at the surface becomes diffuse and dissipates. This allows for
an expansion westward of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge, while
Piedmont trough develops inland. This equates to a return to a more
typical pattern for summer, featuring mainly diurnal scattered
showers/t-storms. This allows for hotter temperatures and more
uncomfortable heat indices to occur. For early next week another
cold front may approach as the east coast trough begins to develop
yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
06z Tuesday. Through daybreak, we could see some patches of MVFR
ceilings or even some light fog, but probabilities appear to be
too low to include in the forecast. A few surrounding observations
have reported some restrictions, but overall the fog and stratus
has been rather transient. Then for the afternoon, very low
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for impacts
would be at KCHS, but even there the probabilities are too low to
include in the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
least periodically in SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday. Less chance of direct impacts on Friday, but still a
risk for SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A weak area of low pressure and associated
surface trough will gradually dissipate through the day just to
the east. Winds will generally top out in the 10-15 knot range out
of the northeast early and will veer around to easterly through
the afternoon, and more southerly by the overnight. Winds along
the land/sea interface will increase this afternoon with diurnal
heating, and could increase to as high as 15-20 knots for the
Charleston Harbor for a few hours. Then overnight winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less. Seas will be 1-3 feet, highest at 20
nm and further out.

Tuesday through Thursday: A slow moving cold front will move into or
near the marine area during the middle of the week, generating a
fairly nebulous pressure pattern with winds and seas far below any
Advisory thresholds. The proximity to the front will cause an
increased chance of showers and t-storms, and the lighter wind
fields plus sufficient instability, moisture and shear could support
an increased risk for waterspouts.

Friday through Saturday: The cold front will have dissipated and the
Bermuda High will expand west across the local waters, allowing for
a more typical pattern for early July, with slightly higher south-
southwest winds, seas of 2-3 ft and a lower potential for showers
and t-storms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270554
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday:  Weak shra starting to initiate adjacent to
the TN line as progged by cam guide, thus did continue with earlier
chance pops for these zones.  Also increased pops to slight chances
over the upper Savannah river valley early this morning per the same
cam guidance as well as radar trends indicating weak echoes
attempting to deepen.  Otherwise, no sig changes needed/made with
this update.

Previous Discussion:  The main concern for Monday will be the extent and
strength of convection that may develop after sufficient boundary
layer heating. The new model guidance indicates that a short wave
will probably remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a
pre-frontal sfc trof that probably will not reach the mtns until
late afternoon. As a result, the best environment for deep
convection and strong thunderstorms will remain to our N and W
through late in the day. Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving
into the mtns from northeast TN, particularly if some organization
happens late in the day over the Cumberland Plateau, however
confidence is no better than it has been in the last few days, so it
will not be mentioned in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the
coverage of precip Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely
precip probability mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but
this borders on ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning
toward drier model solutions when in a drought. The last precip
event was underwhelming and the thought is that the new scenario is
more likely to be drier rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only
scattered coverage at best south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High
temps will be close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure presently in control will retreat to the east later
this morning.  Thus, current sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through daybreak before low vfr cu prevails during the
day.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC this afternoon,
spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont by late afternoon
to early evening.  Therefore taf features lowering vfr stratocu
within a tsra prob30, all ahead of prevailing tsra after sunset per
cam guide consensus.  Prevailing tsra is removed late in the taf
giving way to vcsh when confidence in coverage is reduced.  Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current sat diff product features
thicker low stratus along the Blue Ridge, extending southward into
northeast GA and the western Upstate.  Thus, all SC sites as well as
KAVL feature mvfr cigs just ahead of daybreak per guidance rh
fields.  Otherwise, did continue with fog mention at KAVL and KHKY,
with the greatest restrictions in the mtn valleys.  As stated above,
convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of a prefrontal trof,
before sweeping east over the remainder of the region this
afternoon/evening.  All sites feature prob30s for tsra amidst low
vfr to high mvfr stratocu, eventually giving way to -shra with vcts
as confidence in coverage depletes late in the period.  Winds will
remain generally light and southerly at all sites with gusting
possible adjacent to deeper convection, slowly veering to the wsw
late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week
leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and morning
fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  86%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   64%     Med   67%     Med   61%     Med   65%
KHKY       High  94%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  86%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  89%     High  85%     High 100%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270554
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday:  Weak shra starting to initiate adjacent to
the TN line as progged by cam guide, thus did continue with earlier
chance pops for these zones.  Also increased pops to slight chances
over the upper Savannah river valley early this morning per the same
cam guidance as well as radar trends indicating weak echoes
attempting to deepen.  Otherwise, no sig changes needed/made with
this update.

Previous Discussion:  The main concern for Monday will be the extent and
strength of convection that may develop after sufficient boundary
layer heating. The new model guidance indicates that a short wave
will probably remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a
pre-frontal sfc trof that probably will not reach the mtns until
late afternoon. As a result, the best environment for deep
convection and strong thunderstorms will remain to our N and W
through late in the day. Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving
into the mtns from northeast TN, particularly if some organization
happens late in the day over the Cumberland Plateau, however
confidence is no better than it has been in the last few days, so it
will not be mentioned in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the
coverage of precip Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely
precip probability mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but
this borders on ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning
toward drier model solutions when in a drought. The last precip
event was underwhelming and the thought is that the new scenario is
more likely to be drier rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only
scattered coverage at best south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High
temps will be close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure presently in control will retreat to the east later
this morning.  Thus, current sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through daybreak before low vfr cu prevails during the
day.  A prefrontal trof will move into western NC this afternoon,
spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont by late afternoon
to early evening.  Therefore taf features lowering vfr stratocu
within a tsra prob30, all ahead of prevailing tsra after sunset per
cam guide consensus.  Prevailing tsra is removed late in the taf
giving way to vcsh when confidence in coverage is reduced.  Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.

Elsewhere:  Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection.  Current sat diff product features
thicker low stratus along the Blue Ridge, extending southward into
northeast GA and the western Upstate.  Thus, all SC sites as well as
KAVL feature mvfr cigs just ahead of daybreak per guidance rh
fields.  Otherwise, did continue with fog mention at KAVL and KHKY,
with the greatest restrictions in the mtn valleys.  As stated above,
convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of a prefrontal trof,
before sweeping east over the remainder of the region this
afternoon/evening.  All sites feature prob30s for tsra amidst low
vfr to high mvfr stratocu, eventually giving way to -shra with vcts
as confidence in coverage depletes late in the period.  Winds will
remain generally light and southerly at all sites with gusting
possible adjacent to deeper convection, slowly veering to the wsw
late in the period.

Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions.  Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week
leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and morning
fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  86%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   64%     Med   67%     Med   61%     Med   65%
KHKY       High  94%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  86%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  89%     High  85%     High 100%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270542
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
142 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area into
Monday. Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: The main forecast issue for the remainder of
the night concerns the showers and thunderstorms developing
offshore within a subtle surface trough. These showers and storms
are progressing westward toward the coast and it is certainly
plausible they could brush the Charleston County coast through
daybreak. Anything that does make it onshore should be isolated in
coverage and pops generally top out in the 20-30 percent range.
Otherwise, there are some patches of stratus developing but they
appear to be rather transient in nature based on observations.
Some patchy fog will continue to be possible for interior portions
of the forecast area, but visibilities shouldn`t get much lower
than 2-3 miles and should be shortlived.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
06z Tuesday. Through daybreak, we could see some patches of MVFR
ceilings or even some light fog, but probabilities appear to be
too low to include in the forecast. A few surrounding observations
have reported some restrictions, but overall the fog and stratus
has been rather transient. Then for the afternoon, very low
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for impacts
would be at KCHS, but even there the probabilities are too low to
include in the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: E/NE winds across the local waters, mainly 15 knots or
less. Seas mainly 3 feet or less, highest toward the Gulf Stream.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/MS
MARINE...RJB/MS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270521
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
121 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Earlier isolated showers near the CSRA have dissipated. High
pressure and a generally dry atmosphere will ensure fair weather
overnight. Some uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus
redevelopment late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog at AGS/OGB.

Mainly thin high clouds across the region overnight. Some stratus
possible mainly near the coast overnight. Guidance suggesting
mainly VFR through morning except MVFR/IFR fog at AGS/OGB. Large
dew point depressions at other sites and no support in lamp/mos
guidance...so fog not forecast. For AGS/OGB...some support for
fog in latest HRRR model/lamp 09z to 13z. Scattered cumulus in the
afternoon...winds variable mainly less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will
increase Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise,
diurnal convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270228
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area into
Monday. Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm all showers and thunderstorms have ended and it should
remain dry the rest of the night. Could see some low clouds move
ashore late associated with weak low pressure offshore with a
better chance of some fog well inland toward central GA where the
best combo of light winds and higher low-level moisture should
align. Temperatures should bottom out around 70 inland with mid
to upper 70s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/28. However, there is a low
risk of flight restrictions from fog and/or stratus toward
daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: E/NE winds across the local waters, mainly 15 knots or
less. Seas mainly 3 feet or less, highest toward the Gulf Stream.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270228
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area into
Monday. Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm all showers and thunderstorms have ended and it should
remain dry the rest of the night. Could see some low clouds move
ashore late associated with weak low pressure offshore with a
better chance of some fog well inland toward central GA where the
best combo of light winds and higher low-level moisture should
align. Temperatures should bottom out around 70 inland with mid
to upper 70s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/28. However, there is a low
risk of flight restrictions from fog and/or stratus toward
daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: E/NE winds across the local waters, mainly 15 knots or
less. Seas mainly 3 feet or less, highest toward the Gulf Stream.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270228
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area into
Monday. Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm all showers and thunderstorms have ended and it should
remain dry the rest of the night. Could see some low clouds move
ashore late associated with weak low pressure offshore with a
better chance of some fog well inland toward central GA where the
best combo of light winds and higher low-level moisture should
align. Temperatures should bottom out around 70 inland with mid
to upper 70s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/28. However, there is a low
risk of flight restrictions from fog and/or stratus toward
daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: E/NE winds across the local waters, mainly 15 knots or
less. Seas mainly 3 feet or less, highest toward the Gulf Stream.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270228
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall and dissipate south of the area into
Monday. Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm all showers and thunderstorms have ended and it should
remain dry the rest of the night. Could see some low clouds move
ashore late associated with weak low pressure offshore with a
better chance of some fog well inland toward central GA where the
best combo of light winds and higher low-level moisture should
align. Temperatures should bottom out around 70 inland with mid
to upper 70s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/28. However, there is a low
risk of flight restrictions from fog and/or stratus toward
daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: E/NE winds across the local waters, mainly 15 knots or
less. Seas mainly 3 feet or less, highest toward the Gulf Stream.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270225
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Earlier isolated showers near the CSRA have dissipated. High
pressure and a generally dry atmosphere will ensure fair weather
overnight. Some uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus
redevelopment late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Other than an isolated shower or two near ags/dnl through 01z,
conditions fair through the period. VFR cumulus field will
dissipate shortly after sunset, with maybe some high cirrus
pushing across the region. Near term guidance still showing the
possibility of stratus development along the coastal plain, with
some of this moving inland into portions of the Midlands by
morning. Believe that this stratus will remain just off to the
east of all taf sites. However, do expect to see some MVFR
visibilities in br at AGS/OGB. Can not rule out brief upper end
mvfr visibilities at CAE/CUB/DNL at sunrise, but confidence low at
those sites. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by
14z- 15z. Winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight, and
generally light and variable through the day on Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will increase
Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise, diurnal
convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270225
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Earlier isolated showers near the CSRA have dissipated. High
pressure and a generally dry atmosphere will ensure fair weather
overnight. Some uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus
redevelopment late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Other than an isolated shower or two near ags/dnl through 01z,
conditions fair through the period. VFR cumulus field will
dissipate shortly after sunset, with maybe some high cirrus
pushing across the region. Near term guidance still showing the
possibility of stratus development along the coastal plain, with
some of this moving inland into portions of the Midlands by
morning. Believe that this stratus will remain just off to the
east of all taf sites. However, do expect to see some MVFR
visibilities in br at AGS/OGB. Can not rule out brief upper end
mvfr visibilities at CAE/CUB/DNL at sunrise, but confidence low at
those sites. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by
14z- 15z. Winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight, and
generally light and variable through the day on Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will increase
Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise, diurnal
convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270155
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
955 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0200 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were adjusted in the NC mountains
based on radar trends. Winds were updated with a blend of the latest
NAM and ADJMAV. Only minor adjustments were made to temperatures.

At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR. Model time heights suggest low VFR clouds will
prevail, with off and on ceilings. Time heights suggest some lower
clouds around daybreak, but confidence is not great enough to carry
more than scattered clouds at or below 3000 ft. Convective and
precipitation chances will remain off the west late Monday
afternoon. Winds will favor the southeast tonight, and the southwest
on Monday, with gusts mainly limited to daylight hours.

Elsewhere...Guidance shows low VFR clouds prevailing, though cigs
may be off and on per cloud trends. Guidance does show some lower
clouds, but at this time confidence it not great enough to carry
MVFR cigs. Guidance supports MVFR vsby towards dawn at KHKY and
KAND...with IFR at KAVL. Winds will favor the southeast overnight,
and southwest after dawn, with gusts mainly during the day. Mountain
convective chances diminish this evening. Convective chances ramp up
in the morning, continuing into the afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM
chances will build again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should
be confined to thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and
river valley stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   79%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   74%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270155
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
955 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0200 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were adjusted in the NC mountains
based on radar trends. Winds were updated with a blend of the latest
NAM and ADJMAV. Only minor adjustments were made to temperatures.

At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR. Model time heights suggest low VFR clouds will
prevail, with off and on ceilings. Time heights suggest some lower
clouds around daybreak, but confidence is not great enough to carry
more than scattered clouds at or below 3000 ft. Convective and
precipitation chances will remain off the west late Monday
afternoon. Winds will favor the southeast tonight, and the southwest
on Monday, with gusts mainly limited to daylight hours.

Elsewhere...Guidance shows low VFR clouds prevailing, though cigs
may be off and on per cloud trends. Guidance does show some lower
clouds, but at this time confidence it not great enough to carry
MVFR cigs. Guidance supports MVFR vsby towards dawn at KHKY and
KAND...with IFR at KAVL. Winds will favor the southeast overnight,
and southwest after dawn, with gusts mainly during the day. Mountain
convective chances diminish this evening. Convective chances ramp up
in the morning, continuing into the afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM
chances will build again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should
be confined to thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and
river valley stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   79%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   74%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262343
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
743 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm near the CSRA in the
near term, otherwise, fair weather expected overnight. Some
uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus redevelopment
late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Other than an isolated shower or two near ags/dnl through 01z,
conditions fair through the period. VFR cumulus field will
dissipate shortly after sunset, with maybe some high cirrus
pushing across the region. Near term guidance still showing the
possibility of stratus development along the coastal plain, with
some of this moving inland into portions of the Midlands by
morning. Believe that this stratus will remain just off to the
east of all taf sites. However, do expect to see some MVFR
visibilities in br at AGS/OGB. Can not rule out brief upper end
mvfr visibilities at CAE/CUB/DNL at sunrise, but confidence low at
those sites. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by
14z- 15z. Winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight, and
generally light and variable through the day on Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for convection will increase
Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Otherwise, diurnal
convection possible each afternoon through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262322
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will dissipate south of our area into Monday.
Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, mainly across southeast GA, as the sea breeze pushes
inland. No severe storms are expected given weak instability/forcing.
Otherwise, conditions will remain favorable for at least localized
stratus/fog overnight. Temperatures should bottom out around 70
inland with mid to upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/27. However, there is a low risk
of flight restrictions due to showers early this evening and fog
and/or stratus toward daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The sea breeze circulation will give way to lighter E/NE
winds most areas. Wind direction across GA waters remains somewhat
uncertain due to the proximity of the stalling/dissipating cold
front. Otherwise, seas as high as 3-4 ft near shore waters and 4-5
ft beyond 20 nm this evening will subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore
and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm overnight.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262322
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will dissipate south of our area into Monday.
Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, mainly across southeast GA, as the sea breeze pushes
inland. No severe storms are expected given weak instability/forcing.
Otherwise, conditions will remain favorable for at least localized
stratus/fog overnight. Temperatures should bottom out around 70
inland with mid to upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/27. However, there is a low risk
of flight restrictions due to showers early this evening and fog
and/or stratus toward daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The sea breeze circulation will give way to lighter E/NE
winds most areas. Wind direction across GA waters remains somewhat
uncertain due to the proximity of the stalling/dissipating cold
front. Otherwise, seas as high as 3-4 ft near shore waters and 4-5
ft beyond 20 nm this evening will subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore
and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm overnight.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262313
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2315 UTC Update: Sky cover was adjusted per satellite imagery.
Winds were updated with a blend of the latest model data. Pops and
QPF were adjusted based on model trends.

2100 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were reduced along the blue ridge per
radar trends, which show convection presently limited to the
southwest NC mountains.

At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR. Model time heights suggest low VFR clouds will
prevail, with off and on ceilings. Time heights suggest some lower
clouds around daybreak, but confidence is not great enough to carry
more than scattered clouds at or below 3000 ft. Convective and
precipitation chances will remain off the west late Monday
afternoon. Winds will favor the southeast tonight, and the southwest
on Monday, with gusts mainly limited to daylight hours.

Elsewhere...Guidance shows low VFR clouds prevailing, though cigs
may be off and on per cloud trends. Guidance does show some lower
clouds, but at this time confidence it not great enough to carry
MVFR cigs. Guidance supports MVFR vsby towards dawn at KHKY and
KAND...with IFR at KAVL. Winds will favor the southeast overnight,
and southwest after dawn, with gusts mainly during the day.
Mountain convective chances diminish this evening. Convective
chances ramp up in the morning, continuing into the afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM
chances will build again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should
be confined to thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and
river valley stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262309
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm near the CSRA in the
near term, otherwise, fair weather expected overnight. Some
uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus redevelopment
late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262309
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm near the CSRA in the
near term, otherwise, fair weather expected overnight. Some
uncertainty regarding the possibility of stratus redevelopment
late tonight along the coastal plain pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 262139
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
539 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fair weather expected. No returns on radar over our FA due to a
dry atmosphere and an upper ridge. Some uncertainty regarding the
possibility of stratus redevelopment late tonight along the
coastal plain pushing inland but that could limit the cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262058
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2100 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were reduced along the blue ridge per
radar trends, which show convection presently limited to the
southwest NC mountains.

At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR should prevail through the period. Low convective
clouds with a base currently around 040 should gradually lift as the
boundary layer deepens through late afternoon. Expect this to form a
temporary VFR ceiling, until 22Z or so when clouds should scatter
out even more. A light wind should favor a NE direction. After
sunset, much of the remaining low clouds will dissipate. Wind may go
calm. On Monday, low clouds should develop again with boundary layer
heating by mid-morning. Think any shower development will not reach
the TAF site until after 18Z. Wind should be light from the SW.

Elsewhere...similar to KCLT. The NC mountains should have some
valley fog around daybreak. This could impact KAVL, but confidence
is not high enough to include right now. Convection should develop
by the middle part of the day on Monday over the higher terrain.
Will handle this with a PROB30 at KAVL and KHKY...and will leave the
others alone.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered
convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build
again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   67%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261952
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
352 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will dissipate south of our area tonight into Monday.
Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday, becoming
nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Through early Sunday evening: Scattered showers/thunderstorms will
continue to develop/dissipate along/south of I-16 where the sea
breeze and outflow from previous thunderstorms will interact with
MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg and downdraft CAPE as high as
1200 J/kg. The potential for brief/pulse severe thunderstorms
will remain low in this area. Elsewhere, isolated showers will
develop/dissipate along the inland progressing sea breeze.

Rest of tonight: Conditions will remain favorable for at least
localized stratus/fog overnight, but recent guidance signals
remain mixed. Will continue to assess. Otherwise, temperatures
will bottom out in the upper 60s inland and in the lower 70s most
other areas except mid/upper 70s on the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z TAFs maintain VFR conditions. However, the probability for
flight restrictions, especially in lowering ceilings to IFR/LIFR
levels, will increase overnight into early Monday. Will continue
to assess.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The sea breeze circulation will give way to lighter E/NE
winds most areas. Wind direction across GA waters remains somewhat
uncertain due to the proximity of the stalling/dissipating cold
front. Otherwise, seas as high as 3-4 ft near shore waters and 4-5
ft beyond 20 nm this evening will subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore
and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm overnight.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MS/SPR
MARINE...MS/SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261854
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR should prevail through the period. Low convective
clouds with a base currently around 040 should gradually lift as the
boundary layer deepens through late afternoon. Expect this to form a
temporary VFR ceiling, until 22Z or so when clouds should scatter
out even more. A light wind should favor a NE direction. After
sunset, much of the remaining low clouds will dissipate. Wind may go
calm. On Monday, low clouds should develop again with boundary layer
heating by mid-morning. Think any shower development will not reach
the TAF site until after 18Z. Wind should be light from the SW.

Elsewhere...similar to KCLT. The NC mountains should have some
valley fog around daybreak. This could impact KAVL, but confidence
is not high enough to include right now. Convection should develop
by the middle part of the day on Monday over the higher terrain.
Will handle this with a PROB30 at KAVL and KHKY...and will leave the
others alone.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered
convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build
again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  96%     Med   64%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A quiet afternoon so far with convection initiating and focused
along the old frontal boundary which is located across southern GA
back up to near Atlanta. Drier air over the forecast area has
resulted in much weaker instability today with only fair weather
cumulus across the region today. Temperatures are on track pushing
into the 90s early this afternoon and expect highs to range from
around 90 northern Midlands to mid 90s in the CSRA.

Any convection that may develop along the sea breeze and push
towards the lower CSRA and far southern Midlands should diminish
quickly with sunset and expect skies to clear overnight allowing
for some radiational cooling. Some uncertainty regarding the
possibility of stratus redevelopment late tonight along the
coastal plain pushing inland but that could limit the cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A quiet afternoon so far with convection initiating and focused
along the old frontal boundary which is located across southern GA
back up to near Atlanta. Drier air over the forecast area has
resulted in much weaker instability today with only fair weather
cumulus across the region today. Temperatures are on track pushing
into the 90s early this afternoon and expect highs to range from
around 90 northern Midlands to mid 90s in the CSRA.

Any convection that may develop along the sea breeze and push
towards the lower CSRA and far southern Midlands should diminish
quickly with sunset and expect skies to clear overnight allowing
for some radiational cooling. Some uncertainty regarding the
possibility of stratus redevelopment late tonight along the
coastal plain pushing inland but that could limit the cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging will weaken over the area Monday with upper level
flow becoming more westerly Monday night. A cold front stretched
out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Monday will make
its way toward the Appalachian region through the day with the
surface ridge shifting northeastward and a weak surface trough
developing.  Moisture will increase from west to east ahead of
the frontal boundary. Models are consistent showing an increased
chance of thunderstorms in the northwest portion of the area
closer to deeper moisture. Warm air advection will promote high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing an upper ridge
over the western US and a trough axis crossing the Great Lakes
region and spreading out over the eastern US by mid week. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Tuesday and
linger in the area through the end of the work week before
dissipating. Models show the deepest moisture over the area on
Tuesday with precipitable water values over 2.2 inches at times.
The deepest moisture shifts toward the coast late Tuesday and
Wednesday but with the front in the area and sufficient moisture,
still expect chance pops each day. Temperatures each day are
forecast near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions through around 09z
all terminals then possible MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog or stratus
with higher confidence at AGS/OGB.

Generally VFR cumulus clouds through evening then clearing after
sunset with some possible scattered high clouds overnight. Models
indicate possible stratus developing along the coastal plain and
advecting inland to the Midlands during the predawn hours.
Included MVFR vsbys with this forecast at AGS/OGB for fog but
could be stratus although low level jet is not as strong tonight
compared to last night. Possible to see restrictions at
DNL/CAE/CUB but confidence is lower therefore not included.

VFR conditions should return to all terminals by 14z-15z. Winds
will remain from the east to northeast 5 to 10 knots through
sunset then become light and variable to calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261802
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At 135 PM EDT, satellite imagery shows low clouds scattering out
across the region. Still expect to see some convective precip
developing over the higher terrain through the afternoon. No
significant changes.

Convection should dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.
The low level flow turns more southerly overnight which may bring a
return of low clouds across the western CWFA. Lows will be a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday:  The short term fcst period kicks
off Monday morning as a broad H5 ridge dominates across the
central/southern CONUS, while a trof digs south out of central
Canada into the Great Lakes region.  Meanwhile at the sfc, the
prevailing east coast ridge will be retreating to the northeast
allowing for the return of weak southerly waa across the southeast
states ahead of a cold front diving southward beneath the a fore
mentioned H5 trof.

Guidance continues to converge on a prefrontal trof pushing into the
southern Appalachians Monday afternoon/evening, likely accompanied
by an MCS.  This MCS/trof is progged to move into the NC high
terrain by mid/late afternoon, before propagating southeast into
the northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills/piedmont into the the
evening hours.  Upper flow remains relatively weak as the H3/H5
jet maxes reside well to the north across the Great Lakes, thus
providing little/no synoptic scale lift to enhance convection.
Profiles do exhibit modest CAPE ahead of the front/trof in the
building warm sector, generally 1-2k j/kg, all the while displaying
elevated LCL`s that would favor enhanced DCAPE and thus an increased
downburst threat.  Convection looks to die down a bit after heating
in lost into Monday night, however wouldn`t be suprised to see
continued shower activity through early morning given persistence
of elevated CAPE and moistening profiles.

The cold front finally looks to move into the picture on Tuesday
as a sprawling surface ridge spills into the OH valley, while the
old sfc trof looks to wash out over the Midlands.  Profiles are
increasingly moist on Tuesday thus think sky cover will work to keep
temperatures lower and thus yielding less instability.  The front
is progged move into the western NC by early evening,  eventually
spreading across the remainder of the fcst area overnight, likely
with little fanfare given the limited buoyancy.

All said, pops will maximize in the likely range across much of
western NC on Monday, topping out in the high chance range further
south into northeast GA and the SC upstate.  Pops will remain in the
mid/high chance range on Tuesday with the highest pops along/south
of I85 in proximity to the old quasi stationary sfc trof and any
residual boundaries.  Temperatures on Monday will top out near
normal, before falling a few degree below normal for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR should prevail through the period. Low convective
clouds with a base currently around 040 should gradually lift as the
boundary layer deepens through late afternoon. Expect this to form a
temporary VFR ceiling, until 22Z or so when clouds should scatter
out even more. A light wind should favor a NE direction. After
sunset, much of the remaining low clouds will dissipate. Wind may go
calm. On Monday, low clouds should develop again with boundary layer
heating by mid-morning. Think any shower development will not reach
the TAF site until after 18Z. Wind should be light from the SW.

Elsewhere...similar to KCLT. The NC mountains should have some
valley fog around daybreak. This could impact KAVL, but confidence
is not high enough to include right now. Convection should develop
by the middle part of the day on Monday over the higher terrain.
Will handle this with a PROB30 at KAVL and KHKY...and will leave the
others alone.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered
convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build
again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  98%     High  97%     Med   64%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261743
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region this afternoon
then will dissipate tonight int Monday. Another cold front will
impact the area beginning Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into
Wednesday, then dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early Sunday afternoon, a cold front was slowly advancing through
far southern counties of the forecast area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to fire in this area this afternoon.
An isolated/pulse severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.
However, locally heavy rainfall and periods of frequent cloud to
ground lightning will remain the primary impacts. Elsewhere, pops
decrease as one moves north of the front. Otherwise, temps will
top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s at most locations away from the
immediate coast.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs maintain VFR conditions. However, the probability for
flight restrictions, especially in lowering ceilings to IFR/LIFR
levels, will increase overnight into early Monday. Will continue
to assess.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
Outside thunderstorms, mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Early Sunday afternoon, a cold front was progressing through
GA waters. This front should push just south of Altamaha Sound
by this evening. In the wake of the front, E/NE winds will average
15-20 kt and will be accompanied by seas 2-4 ft near shore waters
and as high as 4-5 ft at 20 nm and beyond.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches
from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected
to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface
each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261539 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1139 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning stratus clouds across the forecast area have pushed a bit
further southwestward and become a cumulus field. Visible imagery
showing convection beginning to fire along the differential
heating boundary from the morning stratus across central and
southeast GA at this time. 850mb analysis revealed widespread
drier air across the forecast area and think this will help
prevent convection across much of our region along with weaker
instability today and lack of triggers or shortwave energy to
initiate convection. Will hold on to slight chance pops across far
southeastern Midlands and lower CSRA counties for possible sea
breeze convection drifting into the area late afternoon.

Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than on Saturday as
temperatures are currently running 3-5 degrees cooler than this
time yesterday. Any convection that develops should diminish
quickly with sunset and expect skies to clear overnight allowing
for some radiational cooling. Some uncertainty regarding the
possibility of stratus redevelopment late tonight but that could
limit the cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture should remain shallow Monday with upper ridging
continuing to extend into the area from the west. However, strong
heating and convergence into a developing weak surface trough
support a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The models show
moisture increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front. There
should also be increased moisture and instability ahead of a mid-
level shortwave trough. Expect an increased chance of
thunderstorms especially in the northwest section closer to deeper
moisture. Followed the guidance consensus for the pop. The
temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display the deepest moisture Tuesday associated
with the front moving into the area. The models show the front
lingering near the area through the medium-range period but
deepest moisture appears to shift east of the area Wednesday ahead
of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have likely pops
Tuesday and chance during the rest of the period. The MOS supports
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Morning stratus has mixed out and become a cumulus field with low
VFR cigs at CAE/CUB and MVFR cigs at OGB/AGS/DNL. VFR cigs should
return all terminals by 17-18z with persistent northeasterly winds
5 to 10 knots. Any convection likely will be confined south of the
region although not impossible for AGS/DNL to possibly see an
isolated shower where moisture is a bit deeper. Possible stratus
redevelopment late tonight but confidence is low at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261523
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1123 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late Sunday morning: Per recent/expected radar trends, raised pops
to likely/categorical and raised QPF to account for locally heavy
rainfall for the next couple of hours near the lower Altamaha
River.

Also late Sunday morning, a cold front was approaching the lower
Altamaha River. In this area, vigorous thunderstorms had developed
within a band of enhanced instability/PWAT around 2 inches. Latest
thinking is that the front will advance south of the Altamaha
River over the next few hours, pushing strongest instability south
of the forecast area. However, if the front stalls north of the
river, the potential for isolated severe weather will persist into
the afternoon.

Otherwise, the cold front has pushed cooler air into the forecast
area, and temperatures should top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s
most areas, highest across SE GA, as low clouds break up to allow
for at least partial sunshine. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out most areas, but recent high resolution
guidance suggests that coverage will remain sparse, and the severe
potential will remain very low most areas this afternoon.

If the front stalls north of the Altamaha River, a combination of
temps in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s could push max
heat index values to around 105F near the river this afternoon.
However, assuming the front continues to progress toward the
south, opted not to issue any Heat Advisories with this package.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extensive low stratus behind the cold front that is exiting to the
south will cause MVFR or IFr ceilings at both terminals through
late late morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and the cold front
to the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
For the next couple of hours, light winds in the vicinity of the
cold front and ongoing/new convection could produce isolated
waterspouts across GA waters.

This afternoon will feature an abnormal pattern for summer, an
inland wedge of high pressure pushing a cold front south of the
Georgia waters this afternoon. There is a decent pinching of the
resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to generate winds upwards
of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although the Georgia waters
start the day with a southeast wind component at or below 15 kt,
they too will eventually experience the NE-E winds later this
morning and afternoon. Seas will build as high as 3-5 ft all
waters, with 1-2 ft waves in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches
from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected
to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface
each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261513
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1113 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalled out south of the region will wash out
today as drier air continues to move in from the northeast.
Another cold front will sweep in Monday night, nearly stalling out
early on Tuesday leading to continued precipitation chances.  High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At 1105 AM EDT, satellite imagery shows low clouds banked up against
the Blue Ridge, indicative of a light easterly flow at low levels.
The clouds are a good clue as to who stands the best chance of
seeing a shower or storm later this afternoon and evening. Think the
fcst has this well in hand with a small chance over the higher
terrain and near the Blue Ridge. The low clouds will slowly scatter
out and lift through the late morning with mostly sunny skies
expected during early afternoon. The low level flow turns more
southeasterly this afternoon keeping low level moisture, and the
resulting instability, across the mountains and Upper Savannah River
Valley. Think the GFS and SREF are more reasonable in showing the
amount of instability this afternoon. The result will be scattered
diurnal convection across this area with a dry forecast elsewhere.
Thickness values will be lower across the western CWFA today with
similar values across the east. This will put highs right around
normal.

Convection should dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.
The low level flow turns more southerly overnight which may bring a
return of low clouds across the western CWFA. Lows will be a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday:  The short term fcst period kicks
off Monday morning as a broad H5 ridge dominates across the
central/southern CONUS, while a trof digs south out of central
Canada into the Great Lakes region.  Meanwhile at the sfc, the
prevailing east coast ridge will be retreating to the northeast
allowing for the return of weak southerly waa across the southeast
states ahead of a cold front diving southward beneath the a fore
mentioned H5 trof.

Guidance continues to converge on a prefrontal trof pushing into the
southern Appalachians Monday afternoon/evening, likely accompanied
by an MCS.  This MCS/trof is progged to move into the NC high
terrain by mid/late afternoon, before propagating southeast into
the northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills/piedmont into the the
evening hours.  Upper flow remains relatively weak as the H3/H5
jet maxes reside well to the north across the Great Lakes, thus
providing little/no synoptic scale lift to enhance convection.
Profiles do exhibit modest CAPE ahead of the front/trof in the
building warm sector, generally 1-2k j/kg, all the while displaying
elevated LCL`s that would favor enhanced DCAPE and thus an increased
downburst threat.  Convection looks to die down a bit after heating
in lost into Monday night, however wouldn`t be suprised to see
continued shower activity through early morning given persistence
of elevated CAPE and moistening profiles.

The cold front finally looks to move into the picture on Tuesday
as a sprawling surface ridge spills into the OH valley, while the
old sfc trof looks to wash out over the Midlands.  Profiles are
increasingly moist on Tuesday thus think sky cover will work to keep
temperatures lower and thus yielding less instability.  The front
is progged move into the western NC by early evening,  eventually
spreading across the remainder of the fcst area overnight, likely
with little fanfare given the limited buoyancy.

All said, pops will maximize in the likely range across much of
western NC on Monday, topping out in the high chance range further
south into northeast GA and the SC upstate.  Pops will remain in the
mid/high chance range on Tuesday with the highest pops along/south
of I85 in proximity to the old quasi stationary sfc trof and any
residual boundaries.  Temperatures on Monday will top out near
normal, before falling a few degree below normal for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday:  The medium range fcst period initializes
on Wednesday morning amidst a broad H5 ridge centered over the
desert southwest while a large trof encompasses the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure looks to build across the OH/TN
valleys, eastward into the southern Appalachians, while an
old frontal axis remains draped across the deep south possibly
providing focus for wave development.  Guidance suggests that the
surface ridge will move by just to the north, thus allowing for
weaker surface based inhibition along south of the I40 corridor
Wednesday and Thursday, before moving northeast on Friday.
During this time, diurnally favored convection looks probable,
however coverage limitations will keep pops below climo levels.
Late in the period another cold front is fcst to push across the
MO valley, eventually moving into the OH valley region Saturday
evening.  Diurnal convective trends will continue Saturday ahead
of the front into Sunday where precipitation chances looks to
improve further.  Temperatures through the period will gradually
moderate back to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT, MVFR cigs will scatter out by late morning with the
scattered cumulus slowly lifting to higher based VFR by early
afternoon. These clouds will linger through the night with
increasing amounts of cirrus. ENE wind today becomes ESE this
evening, then light S overnight.

Elsewhere, similar conditions to KCLT, but with slightly different
timing. KAND has the least chance of seeing MVFR cigs, but they will
be close by. KAVL will have S winds through the period. Scattered
convection could flirt with KAVL and isolated convection with KAND
later in the afternoon. However, chance too low to include in the
TAF for now.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered convection
could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build again on
Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  85%     High 100%     High  94%     Med   66%
KHKY       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  86%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/PM
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261510
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late Sunday morning: A cold front was approaching the lower
Altamaha River. In this area, vigorous thunderstorms had
developed within a band of enhanced instability/PWAT around 2
inches. Latest thinking is that the front will advance south of
the Altamaha River over the next few hours, pushing strongest
instability south of the forecast area. However, if the front
stalls north of the river, the potential for isolated severe
weather will persist into the afternoon.

Otherwise, the cold front has pushed cooler air into the forecast
area, and temperatures should top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s
most areas, highest across SE GA, as low clouds break up to allow
for at least partial sunshine. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out most areas, but recent high resolution
guidance suggests that coverage will remain sparse, and the severe
potential will remain very low most areas this afternoon.

If the front stalls north of the Altamaha River, a combination of
temps in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s could push max
heat index values to around 105F near the river this afternoon.
However, assuming the front continues to progress toward the
south, opted not to issue any Heat Advisories with this package.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extensive low stratus behind the cold front that is exiting to the
south will cause MVFR or IFr ceilings at both terminals through
late late morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and the cold front
to the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
For the next couple of hours, light winds in the vicinity of the
cold front and ongoing/new convection could produce isolated
waterspouts across GA waters.

This afternoon will feature an abnormal pattern for summer, an
inland wedge of high pressure pushing a cold front south of the
Georgia waters this afternoon. There is a decent pinching of the
resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to generate winds upwards
of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although the Georgia waters
start the day with a southeast wind component at or below 15 kt,
they too will eventually experience the NE-E winds later this
morning and afternoon. Seas will build as high as 3-5 ft all
waters, with 1-2 ft waves in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches
from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected
to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface
each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261452
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Late Sunday morning: A cold front was approaching the lower
Altamaha River. In this area, vigorous thunderstorms had
developed within a band of enhanced instability/PWAT around 2
inches. Latest thinking is that the front will advance south of
the Altamaha River over the next few hours, pushing strongest
instability south of the forecast area. However, if the front
stalls north of the river, the potential for isolated severe
weather will persist into the afternoon.

Otherwise, the cold front has pushed cooler air into the forecast
area, and temperatures should top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s
most areas, highest across SE GA, as low clouds break up to allow
for at least partial sunshine. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out most areas, but recent high resolution
guidance suggests that coverage will remain sparse, and the severe
potential will remain very low most areas this afternoon.

If the front stalls north of the Altamaha River, a combination of
temps in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s could push max
heat index values to around 105F near the river this afternoon.
However, assuming the front continues to progress toward the
south, opted not to issue any Heat Advisories with this package.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extensive low stratus behind the cold front that is exiting to the
south will cause MVFR or IFr ceilings at both terminals through
late late morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and the cold front
to the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon will feature an abnormal pattern for summer, an
inland wedge of high pressure pushing a cold front south of the
Georgia waters this afternoon. There is a decent pinching of the
resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to generate winds upwards
of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although the Georgia waters
start the day with a southeast wind component at or below 15 kt,
they too will eventually experience the NE-E winds later this
morning and afternoon. Seas will build as high as 3-5 ft all
waters, with 1-2 ft waves in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches
from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected
to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface
each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261124
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
724 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update the main changes were to raise sky
coverage to account for expanding stratus behind the cold front
and to add 20-30 Pops across the coast of Charleston County, where
we find the best low level convergence.

Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will lift and transition into a decent
diurnal cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary
layer between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extensive low stratus behind the cold front that is exiting to the
south will cause MVFR or IFr ceilings at both terminals through
late late morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and the cold front
to the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although
the Georgia waters start the day with a southeast wind component
at or below 15 kt, they too will eventually experience the NE-E
winds later this morning and afternoon. Seas will build as high
as 3 or 4 ft all waters, with 1-2 ft waves in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261124
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
724 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update the main changes were to raise sky
coverage to account for expanding stratus behind the cold front
and to add 20-30 Pops across the coast of Charleston County, where
we find the best low level convergence.

Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will lift and transition into a decent
diurnal cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary
layer between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extensive low stratus behind the cold front that is exiting to the
south will cause MVFR or IFr ceilings at both terminals through
late late morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and the cold front
to the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although
the Georgia waters start the day with a southeast wind component
at or below 15 kt, they too will eventually experience the NE-E
winds later this morning and afternoon. Seas will build as high
as 3 or 4 ft all waters, with 1-2 ft waves in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261047
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update the main changes were to raise sky
coverage to account for expanding stratus behind the cold front
and to add 20-30 Pops across the coast of Charleston County, where
we find the best low level convergence.

Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will lift and transition into a decent
diurnal cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary
layer between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Low stratus behind the cold front will at least occasionally
cause MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminal through 14z. VFR
conditions will return thereafter, with only a small potential for
SHRA/TSRA and associated flight restrictions in the late morning
and afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal convergence
between high pressure to the north and a cold front to the south.

KSAV: The terminal could occasionally drop into the MVFR/IFR range
through mid morning. Otherwise, VFR through 06z Monday, with
only a low end possibility of SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions
this afternoon due to the proximity of a nearby cold front to the
south and the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although
the Georgia waters start the day with a southeast wind component
at or below 15 kt, they too will experience the NE-E winds. Seas
will build as high as 3 or 4 ft all waters, with 1-2 ft waves in
Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261047
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update the main changes were to raise sky
coverage to account for expanding stratus behind the cold front
and to add 20-30 Pops across the coast of Charleston County, where
we find the best low level convergence.

Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will lift and transition into a decent
diurnal cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary
layer between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion, as well as some stratocumulus from off the
ocean. Temps will fall to near or slightly above late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Low stratus behind the cold front will at least occasionally
cause MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminal through 14z. VFR
conditions will return thereafter, with only a small potential for
SHRA/TSRA and associated flight restrictions in the late morning
and afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal convergence
between high pressure to the north and a cold front to the south.

KSAV: The terminal could occasionally drop into the MVFR/IFR range
through mid morning. Otherwise, VFR through 06z Monday, with
only a low end possibility of SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions
this afternoon due to the proximity of a nearby cold front to the
south and the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, and although
the Georgia waters start the day with a southeast wind component
at or below 15 kt, they too will experience the NE-E winds. Seas
will build as high as 3 or 4 ft all waters, with 1-2 ft waves in
Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261046
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalled out south of the region will wash out
today as drier air continues to move in from the northeast.
Another cold front will sweep in Monday night, nearly stalling out
early on Tuesday leading to continued precipitation chances.  High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At 645 AM EDT, low clouds across the area will slowly scatter out
and lift through the morning with mostly sunny skies expected by
early afternoon. The low level flow turns more southeasterly this
afternoon keeping low level moisture, and the resulting instability,
across the mountains and Upper Savannah River Valley. The NAM once
again shows very high instability across the area, but the GFS and
SREF are more reasonable. The result will be scattered diurnal
convection across this area with a dry forecast elsewhere. Thickness
values will be lower across the western CWFA today with similar
values across the east. This will put highs right around normal.

Convection should dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.
The low level flow turns more southerly overnight which may bring a
return of low clouds across the western CWFA. Lows will be a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday:  The short term fcst period kicks
off Monday morning as a broad H5 ridge dominates across the
central/southern CONUS, while a trof digs south out of central
Canada into the Great Lakes region.  Meanwhile at the sfc, the
prevailing east coast ridge will be retreating to the northeast
allowing for the return of weak southerly waa across the southeast
states ahead of a cold front diving southward beneath the a fore
mentioned H5 trof.

Guidance continues to converge on a prefrontal trof pushing into the
southern Appalachians Monday afternoon/evening, likely accompanied
by an MCS.  This MCS/trof is progged to move into the NC high
terrain by mid/late afternoon, before propagating southeast into
the northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills/piedmont into the the
evening hours.  Upper flow remains relatively weak as the H3/H5
jet maxes reside well to the north across the Great Lakes, thus
providing little/no synoptic scale lift to enhance convection.
Profiles do exhibit modest CAPE ahead of the front/trof in the
building warm sector, generally 1-2k j/kg, all the while displaying
elevated LCL`s that would favor enhanced DCAPE and thus an increased
downburst threat.  Convection looks to die down a bit after heating
in lost into Monday night, however wouldn`t be suprised to see
continued shower activity through early morning given persistence
of elevated CAPE and moistening profiles.

The cold front finally looks to move into the picture on Tuesday
as a sprawling surface ridge spills into the OH valley, while the
old sfc trof looks to wash out over the Midlands.  Profiles are
increasingly moist on Tuesday thus think sky cover will work to keep
temperatures lower and thus yielding less instability.  The front
is progged move into the western NC by early evening,  eventually
spreading across the remainder of the fcst area overnight, likely
with little fanfare given the limited buoyancy.

All said, pops will maximize in the likely range across much of
western NC on Monday, topping out in the high chance range further
south into northeast GA and the SC upstate.  Pops will remain in the
mid/high chance range on Tuesday with the highest pops along/south
of I85 in proximity to the old quasi stationary sfc trof and any
residual boundaries.  Temperatures on Monday will top out near
normal, before falling a few degree below normal for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday:  The medium range fcst period initializes
on Wednesday morning amidst a broad H5 ridge centered over the
desert southwest while a large trof encompasses the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure looks to build across the OH/TN
valleys, eastward into the southern Appalachians, while an
old frontal axis remains draped across the deep south possibly
providing focus for wave development.  Guidance suggests that the
surface ridge will move by just to the north, thus allowing for
weaker surface based inhibition along south of the I40 corridor
Wednesday and Thursday, before moving northeast on Friday.
During this time, diurnally favored convection looks probable,
however coverage limitations will keep pops below climo levels.
Late in the period another cold front is fcst to push across the
MO valley, eventually moving into the OH valley region Saturday
evening.  Diurnal convective trends will continue Saturday ahead
of the front into Sunday where precipitation chances looks to
improve further.  Temperatures through the period will gradually
moderate back to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT, MVFR cigs will scatter out by late morning with the
scattered cumulus slowly lifting to higher based VFR by early
afternoon. These clouds will linger through the night with
increasing amounts of cirrus. ENE wind today becomes ESE this
evening, then light S overnight.

Elsewhere, similar conditions to KCLT, but with slightly different
timing. KAND has the least chance of seeing MVFR cigs, but they will
be close by. KAVL will have S winds through the period. Scattered
convection could flirt with KAVL and isolated convection with KAND
later in the afternoon. However, chance too low to include in the
TAF for now.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered convection
could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build again on
Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       Med   70%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   65%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   73%     High  92%     High 100%     High  91%
KHKY       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   65%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   67%     Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/PM
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261030
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast
through tonight. A diffuse front will remain near the south part
of the area. Upper ridging will extend into the region from the
west. Low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling has helped cause
areas of stratus early this morning. Heating and mixing should
dissipate this cloudiness later this morning. The thunderstorm
chance should remain low because of upper ridging and shallow
moisture. Forecasted just slight chance pops in the south part
because of somewhat deeper moisture associated with the diffuse
front. A sea breeze front may also help support a few
thunderstorms in the southeast section late this afternoon.
Followed the higher temperature guidance today because of the
recent bias and upper ridging. Used the guidance consensus for the
temperature tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture should remain shallow Monday with upper ridging
continuing to extend into the area from the west. However, strong
heating and convergence into a developing weak surface trough
support a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The models
show moisture increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front. There
should also be increased moisture and instability ahead of a mid-
level shortwave trough. Expect an increased chance of
thunderstorms especially in the northwest section closer to
deeper moisture. Followed the guidance consensus for the pop. The
temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display the deepest moisture Tuesday associated
with the front moving into the area. The models show the front
lingering near the area through the medium-range period but
deepest moisture appears to shift east of the area Wednesday ahead
of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have likely pops
Tuesday and chance during the rest of the period. The MOS supports
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest IR satellite loop and surface obs indicating IFR/MVFR stratus
across the area early this morning. Northeasterly winds pick up
after 14z and stratus mixes out and VFR conditions expected to
return throughout the day and afternoon. Isolated convection
possible this afternoon especially near the Savannah River, but
areal coverage is too low to mention in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected Monday.
The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 261023
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast
through tonight. A diffuse front will remain near the south part
of the area. Upper ridging will extend into the region from the
west. Low-level moisture in the northeast flow behind the front
plus nocturnal cooling has helped cause stratus early this
morning. Heating and mixing should dissipate this cloudiness later
this morning. The thunderstorm chance should remain low because of
upper ridging and shallow moisture. Forecasted just slight chance
pops in the south part because of somewhat deeper moisture
associated with the diffuse front. A sea breeze front may also
help support a few thunderstorms in the southeast section late
this afternoon. Followed the higher temperature guidance today
because of the recent bias and upper ridging. Used the guidance
consensus for the temperature tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture should remain shallow Monday with upper ridging
continuing to extend into the area from the west. However, strong
heating and convergence into a developing weak surface trough
support a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The models
show moisture increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front. There
should also be increased moisture and instability ahead of a mid-
level shortwave trough. Expect an increased chance of
thunderstorms especially in the northwest section closer to
deeper moisture. Followed the guidance consensus for the pop. The
temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display the deepest moisture Tuesday associated
with the front moving into the area. The models show the front
lingering near the area through the medium-range period but
deepest moisture appears to shift east of the area Wednesday ahead
of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have likely pops
Tuesday and chance during the rest of the period. The MOS supports
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models indicating the possibility of development of low-level
stratus during the early morning hours. Highest confidence in
development appears to be across the Midlands sites, with lower
confidence along the CSRA. Northeasterly winds pick up after 14z
and stratus mixes out and VFR conditions expected to return
throughout the day and afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold
front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 260804
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
404 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the
northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night
ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast
through tonight. A diffuse front will remain near the south part
of the area. Upper ridging will extend into the region from the
west. Low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling has helped cause
areas of stratus early this morning. Heating and mixing should
dissipate this cloudiness later this morning. The thunderstorm
chance should remain low because of upper ridging and shallow
moisture. Forecasted just slight chance pops in the south part
because of somewhat deeper moisture associated with the diffuse
front. A sea breeze front may also help support a few
thunderstorms in the southeast section late this afternoon.
Followed the higher temperature guidance today because of the
recent bias and upper ridging. Used the guidance consensus for the
temperature tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture should remain shallow Monday with upper ridging
continuing to extend into the area from the west. However, strong
heating and convergence into a developing weak surface trough
support a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The models
show moisture increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front. There
should also be increased moisture and instability ahead of a mid-
level shortwave trough. Expect an increased chance of
thunderstorms especially in the northwest section closer to
deeper moisture. Followed the guidance consensus for the pop. The
temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display the deepest moisture Tuesday associated
with the front moving into the area. The models show the front
lingering near the area through the medium-range period but
deepest moisture appears to shift east of the area Wednesday ahead
of upper troughing. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have likely pops
Tuesday and chance during the rest of the period. The MOS supports
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models indicating the possibility of development of low-level
stratus during the early morning hours. Highest confidence in
development appears to be across the Midlands sites, with lower
confidence along the CSRA. Northeasterly winds pick up after 14z
and stratus mixes out and VFR conditions expected to return
throughout the day and afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a cold
front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260802
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will transition into a decent diurnal
cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary layer
between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion. Temps will fall to near or slightly above
late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Low stratus spreading in from the northeast behind a cold
front will at least occasionally cause MVFR ceilings at the
terminal through 12z. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and a cold front to
the south.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Monday, with only a low end possibility of
SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions this afternoon due to the
proximity of a nearby cold front to the south and the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, ands
although the Georgia waters start the day with mostly some sort
of southerly wind component at or below 15 kt, they too will
experience the NE-E winds. Seas will build as high as 3 or 4 ft.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260802
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s. Our
dew points never really change too much despite the passage of the
cold front, as they`ll generally remain in the 70-75 degree range.
The resulting heat indices will reach as high as 100-104F over our
Georgia zones. A few places could peak around 105F south of I-16,
but duration and spatial coverage is too small to raise a Heat
Advisory.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will transition into a decent diurnal
cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary layer
between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion. Temps will fall to near or slightly above
late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Low stratus spreading in from the northeast behind a cold
front will at least occasionally cause MVFR ceilings at the
terminal through 12z. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and a cold front to
the south.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Monday, with only a low end possibility of
SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions this afternoon due to the
proximity of a nearby cold front to the south and the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, ands
although the Georgia waters start the day with mostly some sort
of southerly wind component at or below 15 kt, they too will
experience the NE-E winds. Seas will build as high as 3 or 4 ft.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260756
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
356 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly south of the region today before
dissipating. Another cold front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday, becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then
dissipating through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: A change in air mass has arrived, and the heat and humidity
won`t be as intolerable for many people as it was the past couple
of days. This is courtesy of a cold front that is pushing through
our Georgia counties early this morning, and gradually heads south
of the Altamaha thereafter. A 1024 mb high hugging the coast from
the Delmarva to southeast New England has actually wedged in
behind the front, and will supply the area with an easterly flow
from off the ocean. This will cut down on max temps, as 850 mb
temps are closer to where they should be this time of year, around
16-18C. The end result is for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most communities, with mid 90s across interior
southeast Georgia. The beaches will receive the most benefit from
the onshore flow, as highs will hold in the mid or upper 80s.

We start the day with an expanding area of low stratus behind the
cold front, which initially will cut down on the insolation. But
during the mid and late morning the wedge inversion relaxes and
climbs and these clouds will transition into a decent diurnal
cumulus field. The onshore trajectories in the boundary layer
between the departing front and around the inland high will
generate sufficient low level convergence, enough to negate the
lack of any short waves aloft as we`re under the influence of the
eastern side of an amplified mid and upper ridge centered in the
lower MS valley. With the sea breeze boundary to get an early
start and sufficient instability and moisture, we anticipate
isolated to scattered showers and t-storms. Warm mid level air
will result in poor mid level lapse rates, so the vertical growth
of convection will be limited overall. But with DCAPE on the order
of 1200-1600 J/kg a few of the tallest storms can produce strong
winds, especially south of I-16 where the better thermodynamic
environment will be situated.

Tonight: Mid and upper level ridging will continue as the cold
front stalls near the Florida-Georgia border and becomes more
diffuse or dissipates. Most of the convection is diurnally driven
and will fade this evening, but there is still enough coastal
convergence in the boundary layer from around the inland wedge.
This results in at least small Pops during the overnight along the
coastal counties. Again there could be some areas of low stratus
after midnight with just enough moisture trapped beneath a weak
nocturnal inversion. Temps will fall to near or slightly above
late June norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The large ridge aloft centered near the
Four Corners region will continue to extend eastward and across
the southeast for Monday. The ridge will then begin to break down
and retreat Monday night. A rather nebulous surface pattern will
prevail across the forecast area well in advance of a front
shifting towards the southern Appalachians and the deep south.
Monday looks like a rather generic summertime day with highs
rising into the low 90s for most locations and lows falling into
the low to mid 70s overnight. Thunderstorm chances will be quite
limited thanks to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper
levels. Have maintained a slight chance pop, but any showers and
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of
the spectrum. The overnight is forecast to be dry as the
aforementioned upstream front begins to approach from the
northwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday: The pattern will begin to shift as the
ridge aloft completely weakens and is gradually replaced by
increasingly cyclonic flow. A weak front will slowly push into the
area from the west/northwest Tuesday afternoon and the increased
moisture will result in increased convective activity. This uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as the front becomes stationary and aligned near or just
upstream of the forecast area. High end chance pops are in place for
now, and we may end up needing higher pops with subsequent forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Low stratus spreading in from the northeast behind a cold
front will at least occasionally cause MVFR ceilings at the
terminal through 12z. VFR conditions will return thereafter, with
only a small potential for SHRA/TSRA and associated flight
restrictions in the afternoon due to the sea breeze and coastal
convergence between high pressure to the north and a cold front to
the south.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Monday, with only a low end possibility of
SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions this afternoon due to the
proximity of a nearby cold front to the south and the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Chance for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Somewhat of an abnormal pattern for summer, an inland wedge
with it`s parent high not far from long Island, with a cold front
pushing south into the Georgia waters early this morning, before
clearing the entire marine area by afternoon. There is a decent
pinching of the resulting NE-E gradient behind the front to
generate winds upwards of 15 or perhaps locally 20 kt, ands
although the Georgia waters start the day with mostly some sort
of southerly wind component at or below 15 kt, they too will
experience the NE-E winds. Seas will build as high as 3 or 4 ft.

Tonight: High pressure to the southeast of New England will weaken
a few millibars as the cold front to the south stalls and becomes
diffuse. The pressure gradient will ease off enough where mostly
easterly winds will fall to less than 10 or 15 kt. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in height.

Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as
a weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then
become more south to southwest through late week as a front
approaches from the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds
are expected to be 15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea
interface each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze.
Seas will generally range 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Rip Currents: We`ll be very close to a moderate risk of rip
currents today given modest NE-E winds. But with some uncertainty
in regards to the amount of swell energy reaching the beaches we
have held onto a low risk. Even so, the longshore current will be
stronger than normal, running from N-NE to S-SW or "down" the
coast. Be safe if at the beach and swim only near a life guard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Charleston Airport /KCHS/ tied the record high temperature of 99
degrees Saturday set in 1977.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




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