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000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 260632
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM...FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT IS WELL UNDER
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM BELOW 3000-3500 FEET...SO IT/S GOING TO TAKE
A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CAN FALL TO THE
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. IF HISTORY IS ANY
GUIDE...IT/S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
FORCING LIFTS NE. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT THAN THE NAM (AND DOESN/T HAVE QUITE THE
COLD BIAS TENDENCY OF THE NAM DURING WINTER EVENTS AROUND HERE)
SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET...AND IT/S REALLY
NOT EVEN CLOSE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ALLOW THE EVENT TO UNFOLD A BIT
MORE BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX PRODUCTS.

AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260632
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM...FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT IS WELL UNDER
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM BELOW 3000-3500 FEET...SO IT/S GOING TO TAKE
A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CAN FALL TO THE
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. IF HISTORY IS ANY
GUIDE...IT/S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
FORCING LIFTS NE. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT THAN THE NAM (AND DOESN/T HAVE QUITE THE
COLD BIAS TENDENCY OF THE NAM DURING WINTER EVENTS AROUND HERE)
SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET...AND IT/S REALLY
NOT EVEN CLOSE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ALLOW THE EVENT TO UNFOLD A BIT
MORE BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX PRODUCTS.

AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 260609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY RIGHT OFF THE COAST AS PRES FALLS WERE INCREASING
AND SECONDARY LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE. A WET OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AS
RAINS INTENSITIES FLUCTUATE AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR WITH RAIN COVERAGE WANING AFTER DAYBREAK AND CERTAINLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING. CLEARING INITIALLY AT KSAV BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
BE SLOWER AT KCHS AS A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH.
VFR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO KCHS PERHAPS BY MID AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD BE JUST A BIT SLOWER. VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS THE COASTAL STORM DEPARTS AND COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WNW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT
HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60
NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW
OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD
PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV RECORD RAINFALL...OLD RECORD OF 2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899 WAS
BROKEN WITH 2.13 INCHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 260601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 260329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
TRENDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING. EXPECT
IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 260329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
TRENDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING. EXPECT
IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 260201
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260201
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINING THE THE DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE BACKED OFF HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 260022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINING THE THE DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE BACKED OFF HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 260018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 260018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 252105
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP AND RICH SW FEED FROM OUT OF THE NOT ONLY THE GULF...BUT
ALSO WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD...DEEP AND AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
CONTINUED FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE GULF STREAM ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB/3 HOURS ACROSS THAT REGION...INDICATIVE
OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN GULF BY 06Z...TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NE GULF BY
LATE. ROBUST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE OF A 175-200 KT UPPER JET THAT
PIVOTS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND STEADY HEIGHTS FALLS AND
STRONG BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BLOSSOM OFF OUR COASTS AS IT
HITS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...AND LIFTS NE AND DEEPENS AS
IT REACHES JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. TRAILING FROM THE LOW THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE.

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THIS AND FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY VARIOUS MODELS AT 700 MB. WITH
ASSOCIATED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE RAINS THAT WILL BE MODERATE
OR HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER 3/4 TO 1 1/4
INCH RAINS TO OCCUR...EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 9-11 PM THIS
EVENING...IN SYNC WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BETTER RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD. FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. WE ARE SHOWING
POPS RAMPING UP TO 100 PERCENT AREA WIDE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAIN
CHANCES TAPER FROM SW TO NE LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL
AWAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON POPS IN SOME SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 3 OR
4 AM. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND MAYBE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF AMZ350 WHERE THE COASTAL WARM FRONT TIPS
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATE IT ALLOWS FOR COOL
ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK /AROUND 13-15Z WEDNESDAY/...RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL THE
COOL ADVECTION SETS IN.

LAKE WINDS...AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY WE/LL SEE THE
ONSET OF LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION SET
IN ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF 40-50 KT
AT 1000 MB THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...VALID DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LULL IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES
NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRONG
LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT OCCURS OVER OR NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-
FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON
COASTAL WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL
GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME T-STORMS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM...AFFECTING PARTS OF AMZ374 AND MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AMZ350.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 252105
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP AND RICH SW FEED FROM OUT OF THE NOT ONLY THE GULF...BUT
ALSO WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD...DEEP AND AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
CONTINUED FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE GULF STREAM ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB/3 HOURS ACROSS THAT REGION...INDICATIVE
OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN GULF BY 06Z...TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NE GULF BY
LATE. ROBUST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE OF A 175-200 KT UPPER JET THAT
PIVOTS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND STEADY HEIGHTS FALLS AND
STRONG BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BLOSSOM OFF OUR COASTS AS IT
HITS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...AND LIFTS NE AND DEEPENS AS
IT REACHES JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. TRAILING FROM THE LOW THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE.

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THIS AND FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY VARIOUS MODELS AT 700 MB. WITH
ASSOCIATED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE RAINS THAT WILL BE MODERATE
OR HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER 3/4 TO 1 1/4
INCH RAINS TO OCCUR...EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 9-11 PM THIS
EVENING...IN SYNC WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BETTER RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD. FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. WE ARE SHOWING
POPS RAMPING UP TO 100 PERCENT AREA WIDE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAIN
CHANCES TAPER FROM SW TO NE LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL
AWAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON POPS IN SOME SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 3 OR
4 AM. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND MAYBE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF AMZ350 WHERE THE COASTAL WARM FRONT TIPS
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATE IT ALLOWS FOR COOL
ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK /AROUND 13-15Z WEDNESDAY/...RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL THE
COOL ADVECTION SETS IN.

LAKE WINDS...AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY WE/LL SEE THE
ONSET OF LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION SET
IN ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF 40-50 KT
AT 1000 MB THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...VALID DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LULL IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES
NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRONG
LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT OCCURS OVER OR NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-
FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON
COASTAL WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL
GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME T-STORMS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM...AFFECTING PARTS OF AMZ374 AND MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AMZ350.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 251937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ABRUPTLY ENDED
AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER VFR/HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS ARE FLOATING
AROUND IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPO CIGS AT BEST
THROUGH LATE DAY...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SFC
BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS COULD
CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ABRUPTLY ENDED
AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER VFR/HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS ARE FLOATING
AROUND IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPO CIGS AT BEST
THROUGH LATE DAY...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SFC
BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS COULD
CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 251851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE
50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE
50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE RAINS WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DWINDLED
CONSIDERABLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
THIS IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE BY THE HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING
OCCURRING. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL A REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAINS
SKIRTING OUR FAR WEST AND NW ZONES IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB COLD
FRONT AND WHERE WE/RE ALSO FINDING SOME HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKE PLACE. POPS WILL BE
GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT FORM 50 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS
LOCATIONS WEST OF US-301 IN SE GA AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
COLLETON...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WE HAVE AROUND 60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR
OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A DEFINITE LULL THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE
GULF STREAM AND STRONG LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL
JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE RAINS WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DWINDLED
CONSIDERABLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
THIS IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE BY THE HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING
OCCURRING. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL A REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAINS
SKIRTING OUR FAR WEST AND NW ZONES IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB COLD
FRONT AND WHERE WE/RE ALSO FINDING SOME HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKE PLACE. POPS WILL BE
GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT FORM 50 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS
LOCATIONS WEST OF US-301 IN SE GA AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
COLLETON...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WE HAVE AROUND 60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR
OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A DEFINITE LULL THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE
GULF STREAM AND STRONG LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL
JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 251754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 251754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 251529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

WE/RE DEFINITELY IN FOR A WET DAY...ALTHOUGH WE/RE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF THE RAINS WE/RE SEEING THIS MORNING WILL START TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT. OR WILL THESE TWO RAIN AREAS JUST MERGE TOGETHER. THE POP
SCHEME IS SHOWING HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...THEN
MAYBE A SMALL DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE TRANSITION ATTEMPTS
TO TAKE PLACE...THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN LATE FROM THE
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED THUNDER...THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF
STREAM WHICH HEADS INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERAL SITES
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG...WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE TODAY...MAYBE RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS BECOMING NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING. FOR NOW WE HAVE AROUND
60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY
FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY AS WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN A DECAYING COLD FRONT INLAND
AND A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE COULD
BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE DAY...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS
TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

WE/RE DEFINITELY IN FOR A WET DAY...ALTHOUGH WE/RE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF THE RAINS WE/RE SEEING THIS MORNING WILL START TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT. OR WILL THESE TWO RAIN AREAS JUST MERGE TOGETHER. THE POP
SCHEME IS SHOWING HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...THEN
MAYBE A SMALL DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE TRANSITION ATTEMPTS
TO TAKE PLACE...THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN LATE FROM THE
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED THUNDER...THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF
STREAM WHICH HEADS INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERAL SITES
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG...WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE TODAY...MAYBE RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS BECOMING NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING. FOR NOW WE HAVE AROUND
60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY
FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY AS WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN A DECAYING COLD FRONT INLAND
AND A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE COULD
BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE DAY...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS
TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 251457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS WILL BE MADE PENDING A
FULL REVIEW OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY HOWEVER THAT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY E AND
SOUTH THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SLIPPED JUST SE OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DRYING. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL
HEATING. ONLY THE SW MTNS SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE THEY START TO BUILD BACK W AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHARPENS UP.

THE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM
TX/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE CURRENT WARNING FOR AVERY AND
ADVISORIES FARTHER S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PENDING A FULL REVIEW OF
12Z MODEL DATA.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/ FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES IN THE POST FROPA AIR...AND NO
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN N/NE THROUGH THE AFTN
AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY
LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS WILL BE MADE PENDING A
FULL REVIEW OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY HOWEVER THAT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY E AND
SOUTH THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SLIPPED JUST SE OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DRYING. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL
HEATING. ONLY THE SW MTNS SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE THEY START TO BUILD BACK W AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHARPENS UP.

THE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM
TX/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE CURRENT WARNING FOR AVERY AND
ADVISORIES FARTHER S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PENDING A FULL REVIEW OF
12Z MODEL DATA.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/ FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES IN THE POST FROPA AIR...AND NO
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN N/NE THROUGH THE AFTN
AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY
LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 251318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 251219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS SETUP FROM HINESVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH JAMESTOWN. GAGE
REPORTS IN THIS CORRIDOR INDICATE AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE UPDATED OUR 6AM-NOON QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY ABOUT 1 INCH IN THIS AREA TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. AN UPDATED STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC WILL BE
POSTED TO THE WEATHER BRIEFING WEB PAGE SHORTLY.

REST OF TODAY...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO
CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL
UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE
TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL
TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT
MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY... MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 251219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS SETUP FROM HINESVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH JAMESTOWN. GAGE
REPORTS IN THIS CORRIDOR INDICATE AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE UPDATED OUR 6AM-NOON QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY ABOUT 1 INCH IN THIS AREA TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. AN UPDATED STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC WILL BE
POSTED TO THE WEATHER BRIEFING WEB PAGE SHORTLY.

REST OF TODAY...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO
CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL
UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE
TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL
TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT
MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY... MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251155
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE OUT OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/
WESTERN UPSTATE...AND AT THIS RATE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE AXIS OF A STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST.

COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...BASED UPON UPSTREAM OBS...THE TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST BAND THAT HAS RESULTED IN LOW
MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS. WILL THEREFORE BEGIN THE TAF ONLY
MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT009 IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z.
THE LARGER CONCERN MAY BE VISBY...WHICH HAS RECENTLY LOWERED TO MVFR
OWING TO CALM WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL INTRODUCE MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER THE PIEDMONT...IT APPEARS THIS WON/T OCCUR FOR A 2-3 MORE HOURS
AT KCLT. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A 3SM IN THE TEMPO...COUNTING ON
THE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT ANYTHING LOWER. OTHERWISE...
THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS AROUND TO LIGHT NW LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS (AT
LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS (AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 251146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND OBS INDICATE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS
GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 251146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND OBS INDICATE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS
GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AVERY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD SEE
PRIMARILY SNOW...SUPPORTING A WINTER STORM WARNING. AN ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...
HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 250937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AVERY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD SEE
PRIMARILY SNOW...SUPPORTING A WINTER STORM WARNING. AN ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...
HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 250851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 250606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAHN...TO
KCEU...TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING
FOG OR STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 250606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAHN...TO
KCEU...TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING
FOG OR STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 250349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 250330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCHS 250327
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT FOR LATER
TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTED IN MAINLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM
SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. SOME HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM IN THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT
KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR OR NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER
IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...MTE







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250327
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT FOR LATER
TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTED IN MAINLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM
SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. SOME HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM IN THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT
KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR OR NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER
IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...MTE






000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 242336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 242336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 242323
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 242323
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 241934
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO THE SE IN THE
DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NONE
OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY LIFTED/SCATTERED TO VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
EXPECT SWLY GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH
LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT IN ROBUST SWLY
MIXING AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY WITH FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY W TO NW AT THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241934
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO THE SE IN THE
DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NONE
OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY LIFTED/SCATTERED TO VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
EXPECT SWLY GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH
LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT IN ROBUST SWLY
MIXING AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY WITH FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY W TO NW AT THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1109 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. AS OF LATE MORNING WE/RE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
OF I-16 IN SE GA...WITH EVEN NEAR 80 JUST THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. WE/LL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWING 80 OR 81 IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF I-16...MID AND
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING BY THE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE
FETCH AND EVEN SOME LINGERING SEA FOG.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...COVERING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 301...AND SKIRTING THE NW
TIER OF OUR SC ZONES. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO DEW POINT
BOUNDARY IN SYNC WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE...WITH
SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMEST AIR. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS BY
LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND LCL HEIGHTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR SCATTERED T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE APPROACHING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVES ALOFT... AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH.
FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LOW STRATUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. IF THE INVERSION
LOWERS ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX.

A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SLUGGISH MOVING COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST/NW. WE/RE NOT YET CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST/SE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

FINALLY...DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD DECKS THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT BOAT IN
CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND HUGGING THE FIRST FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE. COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE DOWN UNDER
2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1109 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. AS OF LATE MORNING WE/RE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
OF I-16 IN SE GA...WITH EVEN NEAR 80 JUST THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. WE/LL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWING 80 OR 81 IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF I-16...MID AND
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING BY THE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE
FETCH AND EVEN SOME LINGERING SEA FOG.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...COVERING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 301...AND SKIRTING THE NW
TIER OF OUR SC ZONES. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO DEW POINT
BOUNDARY IN SYNC WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE...WITH
SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMEST AIR. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS BY
LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND LCL HEIGHTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR SCATTERED T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE APPROACHING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVES ALOFT... AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH.
FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LOW STRATUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. IF THE INVERSION
LOWERS ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX.

A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SLUGGISH MOVING COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST/NW. WE/RE NOT YET CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST/SE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

FINALLY...DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD DECKS THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT BOAT IN
CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND HUGGING THE FIRST FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE. COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE DOWN UNDER
2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 241555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
RE