Home > Products > State Listing > South Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDGSP |  AFDCAE |  AFDCHS |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 301454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SKY COVER IS EVIDENT IN LATE MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN
INITIATED AS EARLY AS 10 AM EDT IN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...LIKELY ALONG A SUBTLE LINE OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN
SPREAD ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE ADDING EXPLICIT
MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SKY COVER IS EVIDENT IN LATE MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN
INITIATED AS EARLY AS 10 AM EDT IN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...LIKELY ALONG A SUBTLE LINE OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN
SPREAD ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE ADDING EXPLICIT
MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 301446
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES BUT STILL REMAINS IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHER VALUES OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 14Z LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID 80S ALREADY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS NOTED ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH LINE FROM BAMBERG COUNTY SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY.

EXPECT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AND IN THE CSRA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
OGB/AGS/DNL WOULD LIKELY BE MORE LIKELY THAN CAE/CUB TO OBSERVE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM TEH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301446
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES BUT STILL REMAINS IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHER VALUES OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 14Z LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID 80S ALREADY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS NOTED ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH LINE FROM BAMBERG COUNTY SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY.

EXPECT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AND IN THE CSRA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
OGB/AGS/DNL WOULD LIKELY BE MORE LIKELY THAN CAE/CUB TO OBSERVE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM TEH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC
THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORNING LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT
WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2.5KFT EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT THESE
CONDITIONS IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME.
CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING STRATUS CLOUD
DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE CSRA...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE CSRA...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ON TRACK REGARDING TRENDS...HOWEVER MAGNITUDE OF THE SKY
COVER WAS UNDER DONE.  THUS...INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE ALSO HOLDING MIN TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BENEATH AND ADJACENT TO THIS STRATUS DECK.
LATEST MAV/MET/LAMP CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS AFFECTING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ON TRACK REGARDING TRENDS...HOWEVER MAGNITUDE OF THE SKY
COVER WAS UNDER DONE.  THUS...INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE ALSO HOLDING MIN TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BENEATH AND ADJACENT TO THIS STRATUS DECK.
LATEST MAV/MET/LAMP CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS AFFECTING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU...
STRATUS...AND CIRRUS.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE
RECENT SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...MAINLY
IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300157
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA
RAINFREE AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SPUR A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES. FOR NOW
WE HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS...THUS NO MENTION IN
THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

A FEW MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE.
BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300157
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA
RAINFREE AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SPUR A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES. FOR NOW
WE HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS...THUS NO MENTION IN
THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

A FEW MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE.
BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300151
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF OGB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHT FOG AT CAE/CUB.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM LATE
TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY 15Z
SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR ANY MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 292353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF OGB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHT FOG AT CAE/CUB.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM LATE
TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY 15Z
SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR ANY MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A FG/BR THREAT THAN
CIGS AS DOES THE STAT GUIDANCE...SO WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
MVFR VSBY. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A FG/BR THREAT THAN
CIGS AS DOES THE STAT GUIDANCE...SO WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
MVFR VSBY. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE. BUT ON
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV
WILL BE VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS
LOOK TO STAY INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH
SYNOPTIC FLOW. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON
SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
BUT THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291930
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENCE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. A PERSISTENT E-W ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THE SEABREEZE HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY...AS
WELL AS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...INITIATION OF LIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY CONSISTENT TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER STRONG UPPER
RIDGING.

ANY SCATTERED SKY COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHEN COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291413 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
AND LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO LANCASTER
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEWPORT NC WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST 925MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM HRRR AND SPC WRF
INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NC BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE
AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND LIKELY WILL MIX OUT AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND PEAK IN
THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291413 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
AND LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO LANCASTER
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEWPORT NC WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST 925MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM HRRR AND SPC WRF
INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NC BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE
AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND LIKELY WILL MIX OUT AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND PEAK IN
THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
334 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW
VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY THIS EVENING PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...MAINLY AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION
CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 290734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
334 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW
VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY THIS EVENING PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...MAINLY AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION
CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 290601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY MID MORNING.  THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     MED   72%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY MID MORNING.  THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     MED   72%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290522
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY THIS EVENING PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...MAINLY AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION
CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290522
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY THIS EVENING PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...MAINLY AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION
CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AT MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ELEVATED FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS...WEATHER REMAINS QUITE TRANQUIL.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM SSW ACROSS CHARLESTON WATERS TO SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AT MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ELEVATED FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS...WEATHER REMAINS QUITE TRANQUIL.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM SSW ACROSS CHARLESTON WATERS TO SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290239
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290239
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290239
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290239
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290159
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   57%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   56%     LOW   47%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   71%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290159
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   57%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   56%     LOW   47%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   71%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING NOT CONVINCED
THAT COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG JUSTIFIES A MENTION
WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS...PERHAPS
WE WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282330
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE DOMINATING
THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282330
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE DOMINATING
THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR
10C INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD  DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 282311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEW POINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEW POINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE
RIVER-VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. USED THE GFS MOS AND
FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR AT AGS AND OGB. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE ANY FOG AROUND 13Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG MAY OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE
AND REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR/WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 282233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE
AND REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR/WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS







000
FXUS62 KGSP 282033
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 282033
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/RJB/






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/RJB/







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED
ON LLVL WIND AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER
EAST TN INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK
FORCING IS OCCURRING AS EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM
IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS ON THE
RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE THE ONLY AREAS
THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS TO EXTEND
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT ESPECIALLY
EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS
CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED
ON LLVL WIND AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER
EAST TN INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK
FORCING IS OCCURRING AS EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM
IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS ON THE
RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE THE ONLY AREAS
THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS TO EXTEND
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT ESPECIALLY
EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS
CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT FOG PRONE OGB/AGS BUT
NOT EXPECTING FOG ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT FOG PRONE OGB/AGS BUT
NOT EXPECTING FOG ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT FOG PRONE OGB/AGS BUT
NOT EXPECTING FOG ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...NOW AROUND AN INCH...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT WITH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 700MB. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. A STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GOING TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS OBSERVED
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT FOG PRONE OGB/AGS BUT
NOT EXPECTING FOG ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281808
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

MORE DETAILS TO COME SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281808
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

MORE DETAILS TO COME SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AFTER 19Z...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR
DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...RJB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AFTER 19Z...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR
DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...RJB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281637
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK
A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING WEATHER MAP SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA. LAPS
SOUNDINGS CONFIRM MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH BUT SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT.

ANOTHER WARM BUT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
AGS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281637
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK
A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING WEATHER MAP SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA. LAPS
SOUNDINGS CONFIRM MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH BUT SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT.

ANOTHER WARM BUT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
AGS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities