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000
FXUS62 KCHS 301349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...HERE COMES THE SUN...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ERODE THE CLOUD DECK FROM NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN...
THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
HAS ENDED AND GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S LOOK REASONABLE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...HERE COMES THE SUN...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ERODE THE CLOUD DECK FROM NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN...
THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
HAS ENDED AND GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S LOOK REASONABLE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...HERE COMES THE SUN...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ERODE THE CLOUD DECK FROM NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN...
THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
HAS ENDED AND GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S LOOK REASONABLE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...HERE COMES THE SUN...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ERODE THE CLOUD DECK FROM NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN...
THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
HAS ENDED AND GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S LOOK REASONABLE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 301311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...ALONG WITH AREA WEB CAMS...STILL
INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CSRA AND MIDLANDS...AND ALONG SOME RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

FOR THE REMINDER OF THE DAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
DRY AIR ALOFT.  BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 301311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...ALONG WITH AREA WEB CAMS...STILL
INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CSRA AND MIDLANDS...AND ALONG SOME RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

FOR THE REMINDER OF THE DAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
DRY AIR ALOFT.  BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 301225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UTC UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 301225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UTC UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH MIDLANDS...ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CSRA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID MORNING.
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020-021-025-026.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH MIDLANDS...ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CSRA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID MORNING.
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020-021-025-026.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 16Z AT KCHS AND 18Z AT KSAV. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z...AFTER WHICH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AROUND 14Z OR PERHAPS
15Z AT THE VERY LATEST AS THERE IS NO MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYER TO
PREVENT A QUICK WARMUP. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW
STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND. LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...SO AN MVFR VSBY WAS INCLUDED AFTER 10Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR FOG THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE VISIBILITY FIRST THING THIS MORNING AT TAF
SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE VLIFR TO IFR RANGES.
PLACES THAT DO NOT HAVE THE DENSE FOG WILL PROBABLY HAVE VERY LOW
STRATUS...AND THUS WILL BE AT LEAST IFR AS WELL. THE FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z AT MOST PLACES. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH A
LIGHT N WIND. EXPECT MORE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST PLACES AT LEAST MVFR. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS GENERALLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DENSE FOG AREA
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE SC...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE FOG HAS
ALREADY LIFTED TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING UP THE
VALLEY FROM THE NW. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE NC MTNS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300802
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN
PATCHES OF HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR
LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300802
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY AS THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
5000 FEET BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BREEZE THOUGH...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES A BIT LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST...EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE GA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MANAGE TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE UPPER 80S LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND GET REPLACED BY A
MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN
PATCHES OF HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR
LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS BUT DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LESS...HIGHEST IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY
AROUND CHARLESTON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AND WAS DEVELOPING INTO METRO CHARLOTTE.
WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW. OTHERWISE...THE
FCST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW
STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     048-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...AND WAS DEVELOPING INTO METRO CHARLOTTE.
WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW. OTHERWISE...THE
FCST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW
STRATUS TO DELAY ANY WARMUP.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WILL KEEP AN UPPER TROF AXIS ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CHANNELED VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS IS NOT AS EXCITED. FOR
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO H85. THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SMALL POOL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS MAY SUPPORT ISO LATE
AFTERNOON SHRA...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SCHC POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF A LLVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...LLVL WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING 15KTS AT
H85. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC CAPE AND SSE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 80S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIME A SFC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED L/W TROF ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
0Z GFS DEPICTS THE CONCURRENCE OF SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ON FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID
MORNING...A BAND OF H3 JET DIVERGENCE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD...RUNNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VEERING LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
IN ADDITION...CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FIELD OF CAPE...UPPER FORCING...AND LLVL
SHEAR. I WILL FORECAST POPS TO RANGE FROM CATE TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST
TEMPS OF THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50 EAST...HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     048-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300634
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300634
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300556
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...THINK IT BEST TO HOIST THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS...TO
THE NW PIEDMONT. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AT SEVERAL OF THE OBS
SITES BUT KEEPS COMING BACK TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY
WILL PROBABLY NOT END THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THAT MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
WORSE AS DRIVERS ENCOUNTER FOG BANKS THAT SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO. WILL KEEP ON EYE TOWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...IN PARTICULAR DOWN INTO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...WHICH THE
NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIGHT HAPPEN. TEMPS LOOK OK. ALL PRECIP HAS
ENDED.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP
FORM THE NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   78%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     053-056-057-065-068-069-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300556
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...THINK IT BEST TO HOIST THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS...TO
THE NW PIEDMONT. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AT SEVERAL OF THE OBS
SITES BUT KEEPS COMING BACK TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY
WILL PROBABLY NOT END THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THAT MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
WORSE AS DRIVERS ENCOUNTER FOG BANKS THAT SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO. WILL KEEP ON EYE TOWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...IN PARTICULAR DOWN INTO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...WHICH THE
NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIGHT HAPPEN. TEMPS LOOK OK. ALL PRECIP HAS
ENDED.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP
FORM THE NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   78%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     053-056-057-065-068-069-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300556
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...THINK IT BEST TO HOIST THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS...TO
THE NW PIEDMONT. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AT SEVERAL OF THE OBS
SITES BUT KEEPS COMING BACK TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY
WILL PROBABLY NOT END THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THAT MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
WORSE AS DRIVERS ENCOUNTER FOG BANKS THAT SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO. WILL KEEP ON EYE TOWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...IN PARTICULAR DOWN INTO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...WHICH THE
NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIGHT HAPPEN. TEMPS LOOK OK. ALL PRECIP HAS
ENDED.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP
FORM THE NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   78%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     053-056-057-065-068-069-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300556
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...THINK IT BEST TO HOIST THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS...TO
THE NW PIEDMONT. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AT SEVERAL OF THE OBS
SITES BUT KEEPS COMING BACK TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY
WILL PROBABLY NOT END THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THAT MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
WORSE AS DRIVERS ENCOUNTER FOG BANKS THAT SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO. WILL KEEP ON EYE TOWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...IN PARTICULAR DOWN INTO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...WHICH THE
NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIGHT HAPPEN. TEMPS LOOK OK. ALL PRECIP HAS
ENDED.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP
FORM THE NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG IF THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO SRN FOOTHILLS AND EXPECT
THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND S INTO METRO CLT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL GO
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 09Z...THEN PREVAILING MVFR WITH A TEMPO IFR FROM
09Z TO 13Z AS THE FOG EXPANDS. THIS COULD VERY EASILY GO TO LIFR OR
VLIFR IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW STRATOCU AND A LIGHT N WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BE WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS
ALREADY MOST PREVALENT IN THE MTN VALLEYS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE IFR HAD
ALREADY SURROUNDED KHKY AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CLOSE IN BY 09Z.
THE OTHER TAF SITES GET A LONG TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK AT LEAST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING AT THE VERY LATEST. AFTER THAT...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO START DEVELOPING IN THE MTN VALLEYS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   78%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     053-056-057-065-068-069-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300443
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR THE COASTAL WARM FRONT
AND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PUSHING SOUTH FROM AROUND
CHARLESTON WESTWARD THROUGH WALTERBORO AND SYLVANIA. EXPECT THIS
GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH....ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN PATCHES OF
HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300443
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR THE COASTAL WARM FRONT
AND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PUSHING SOUTH FROM AROUND
CHARLESTON WESTWARD THROUGH WALTERBORO AND SYLVANIA. EXPECT THIS
GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH....ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN PATCHES OF
HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300443
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR THE COASTAL WARM FRONT
AND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PUSHING SOUTH FROM AROUND
CHARLESTON WESTWARD THROUGH WALTERBORO AND SYLVANIA. EXPECT THIS
GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH....ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN PATCHES OF
HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300443
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR THE COASTAL WARM FRONT
AND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PUSHING SOUTH FROM AROUND
CHARLESTON WESTWARD THROUGH WALTERBORO AND SYLVANIA. EXPECT THIS
GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT AND
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH....ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. AT KCHS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
14Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AT KSAV...IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE LIKELY IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 18Z. AT BOTH TERMS...VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN PATCHES OF
HEAVIER DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300229
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AS OF 750 PM...ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE HWO MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON FOG
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MIXED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DECOUPLING ATMOS WITH FOG
FORMING. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG
DENSE FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS FORMING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE FEATURES
AND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS SHUD
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE MORNING TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY OR CIGS. HAVE KEPT
CONSISTENCY AND GONE WITH MVFR FOG AND SCT MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORN. IF CIGS DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER
THRU NOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WHILE FOG ENDS EARLIER. LIGHT NNE
WIND BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NLY WIND DEVELOPING TUE. ANY
CLOUDS TUE AFT WILL BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT
BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. HAVE DROPPED KHKY AND KAND TO IFR AS
THEY USUALLY HAVE MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN KGSP/KGMU. KAVL LOOKS TO
SEE VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE. RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY MID MORNING...BUT SCT
LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THRU NOON. VFR EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MTN CONVECTION WITH THE CAPPED ATMOS. LIGHT WIND THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     MED   68%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     MED   71%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 300229
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AS OF 750 PM...ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE HWO MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON FOG
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MIXED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DECOUPLING ATMOS WITH FOG
FORMING. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG
DENSE FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS FORMING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE FEATURES
AND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS SHUD
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE MORNING TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY OR CIGS. HAVE KEPT
CONSISTENCY AND GONE WITH MVFR FOG AND SCT MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORN. IF CIGS DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER
THRU NOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WHILE FOG ENDS EARLIER. LIGHT NNE
WIND BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NLY WIND DEVELOPING TUE. ANY
CLOUDS TUE AFT WILL BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT
BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. HAVE DROPPED KHKY AND KAND TO IFR AS
THEY USUALLY HAVE MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN KGSP/KGMU. KAVL LOOKS TO
SEE VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE. RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY MID MORNING...BUT SCT
LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THRU NOON. VFR EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MTN CONVECTION WITH THE CAPPED ATMOS. LIGHT WIND THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     MED   68%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     MED   71%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300229
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE
SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. ALMOST
A CERTAINTY NOW THAT AREAS OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL WIN
OUT. EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF IT BECOMES MORE THAN PATCHY.

AS OF 750 PM...ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE HWO MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON FOG
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MIXED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DECOUPLING ATMOS WITH FOG
FORMING. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG
DENSE FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS FORMING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE FEATURES
AND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS SHUD
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE MORNING TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY OR CIGS. HAVE KEPT
CONSISTENCY AND GONE WITH MVFR FOG AND SCT MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORN. IF CIGS DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER
THRU NOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WHILE FOG ENDS EARLIER. LIGHT NNE
WIND BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NLY WIND DEVELOPING TUE. ANY
CLOUDS TUE AFT WILL BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT
BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. HAVE DROPPED KHKY AND KAND TO IFR AS
THEY USUALLY HAVE MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN KGSP/KGMU. KAVL LOOKS TO
SEE VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE. RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY MID MORNING...BUT SCT
LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THRU NOON. VFR EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MTN CONVECTION WITH THE CAPPED ATMOS. LIGHT WIND THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     MED   68%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     MED   71%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   65%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...LAST OF BANDED/CONVECTIVE RAIN WAS CLINGING TO
AREAS AROUND ALTAMAHA SOUND...JUST WEST OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...
THIS HEAVIER RAIN COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RETREAT OFF THE
COAST AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED DEEP MOISTURE/PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1
INCHES...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS DEPICTED THAT
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS SPREADING STEADILY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THUS...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LOWER TO THE
SURFACE TO CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SO NO FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...LAST OF BANDED/CONVECTIVE RAIN WAS CLINGING TO
AREAS AROUND ALTAMAHA SOUND...JUST WEST OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...
THIS HEAVIER RAIN COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RETREAT OFF THE
COAST AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED DEEP MOISTURE/PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1
INCHES...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS DEPICTED THAT
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS SPREADING STEADILY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THUS...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LOWER TO THE
SURFACE TO CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SO NO FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE E/SE WINDS
10-15 KT OVER GA WATERS. THEN...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY...WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 15-20 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED NE WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2-4 FT WILL REMAIN COMMON...AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292352
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE HWO MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON FOG
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MIXED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DECOUPLING ATMOS WITH FOG
FORMING. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG
DENSE FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS FORMING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE FEATURES
AND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS SHUD
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE MORNING TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY OR CIGS. HAVE KEPT
CONSISTENCY AND GONE WITH MVFR FOG AND SCT MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORN. IF CIGS DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER
THRU NOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WHILE FOG ENDS EARLIER. LIGHT NNE
WIND BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NLY WIND DEVELOPING TUE. ANY
CLOUDS TUE AFT WILL BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT
BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. HAVE DROPPED KHKY AND KAND TO IFR AS
THEY USUALLY HAVE MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN KGSP/KGMU. KAVL LOOKS TO
SEE VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE. RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY MID MORNING...BUT SCT
LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THRU NOON. VFR EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MTN CONVECTION WITH THE CAPPED ATMOS. LIGHT WIND THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   67%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   63%     MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292352
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE HWO MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IN LESS AGREEMENT ON FOG
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MIXED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DECOUPLING ATMOS WITH FOG
FORMING. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG
DENSE FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS FORMING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE FEATURES
AND FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS SHUD
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE MORNING TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY OR CIGS. HAVE KEPT
CONSISTENCY AND GONE WITH MVFR FOG AND SCT MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORN. IF CIGS DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER
THRU NOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WHILE FOG ENDS EARLIER. LIGHT NNE
WIND BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NLY WIND DEVELOPING TUE. ANY
CLOUDS TUE AFT WILL BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT
BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. HAVE DROPPED KHKY AND KAND TO IFR AS
THEY USUALLY HAVE MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN KGSP/KGMU. KAVL LOOKS TO
SEE VLIFR OVERNIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE. RESTRICTIONS SHUD BE GONE BY MID MORNING...BUT SCT
LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THRU NOON. VFR EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MTN CONVECTION WITH THE CAPPED ATMOS. LIGHT WIND THRU
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   78%     MED   67%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   63%     MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292335
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUED TO RETREAT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST. WHILE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST/SOUTH OF OSSABAW
ISLAND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WILL ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER TO THE SURFACE TO
CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO NO
FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292335
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUED TO RETREAT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST. WHILE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST/SOUTH OF OSSABAW
ISLAND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WILL ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER TO THE SURFACE TO
CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO NO
FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292335
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUED TO RETREAT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST. WHILE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST/SOUTH OF OSSABAW
ISLAND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WILL ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER TO THE SURFACE TO
CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO NO
FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292335
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUED TO RETREAT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST. WHILE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST/SOUTH OF OSSABAW
ISLAND THIS EVENING...RAINFALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WILL ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER TO THE SURFACE TO
CREATE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP STRATUS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO NO
FOG IS MENTIONED WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
601 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DISCONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.

EARLY MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WAS RETREATING
TOWARD THE EAST. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...
RAINFALL COVERAGE/RATES WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED POP TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...OCCASIONAL
VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
601 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DISCONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.

EARLY MONDAY EVENING...THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WAS RETREATING
TOWARD THE EAST. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...
RAINFALL COVERAGE/RATES WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT/EXPECTED POP TRENDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...OCCASIONAL
VFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCHS AND KSAV OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TRANSIENT...AND IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN VFR CEILINGS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED E/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL. LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS GA WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN
TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY CLEARING COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR FROM LATE NIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN
TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY CLEARING COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR FROM LATE NIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN MVFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE NEARBY SITES...BUT CHC
IS LOW. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT
WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST
VSBYS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBY IN THE TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP
VALLEY OR GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   54%     MED   61%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     LOW   59%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     LOW   54%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     MED   68%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     LOW   56%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN MVFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE NEARBY SITES...BUT CHC
IS LOW. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT
WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST
VSBYS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBY IN THE TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP
VALLEY OR GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   54%     MED   61%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     LOW   59%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     LOW   54%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     MED   68%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     LOW   56%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN MVFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE NEARBY SITES...BUT CHC
IS LOW. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT
WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST
VSBYS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBY IN THE TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP
VALLEY OR GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   54%     MED   61%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     LOW   59%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     LOW   54%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     MED   68%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     LOW   56%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 292036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHRA LINGER OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT SLOWLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE OBSERVED WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS...ALONG WITH SKY AND WINDS.

AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN MVFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE NEARBY SITES...BUT CHC
IS LOW. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT
WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST
VSBYS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBY IN THE TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP
VALLEY OR GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   54%     MED   61%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     LOW   59%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     MED   73%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     LOW   54%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     MED   68%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     LOW   56%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/RWH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO END TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO BRIGHTER CONDITIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF
80-100 PERCENT WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THEN. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER CLOSE TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
LIKELY...BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL. IT APPEARS RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TEETERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR.
OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW-END IFR FOR NOW. PREVAILING IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WINDS
LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BY
BRIEFLY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINS. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA FOR THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. A FLASH WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR INLAND TIER
OF ZONES. 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
REMAIN POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE
CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS TATTNALL AND EVANS
COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED
BY RADAR AND SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MESONET REPORTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO END TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO BRIGHTER CONDITIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF
80-100 PERCENT WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THEN. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING OVER THE REGION. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE AS GRADUAL RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BRING SOME SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER CLOSE TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
LIKELY...BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL. IT APPEARS RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TEETERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR.
OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW-END IFR FOR NOW. PREVAILING IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WINDS
LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BY
BRIEFLY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINS. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 3-5 FT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA FOR THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. A FLASH WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR INLAND TIER
OF ZONES. 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
REMAIN POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE
CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS TATTNALL AND EVANS
COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED
BY RADAR AND SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MESONET REPORTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291838
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE
MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER.
IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     LOW   59%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   61%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%     LOW   57%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     MED   60%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291838
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE
MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER.
IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     LOW   59%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   61%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%     LOW   57%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     MED   60%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291838
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE
MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER.
IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     LOW   59%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   61%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%     LOW   57%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     MED   60%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291838
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IN THE
PIEDMONT....WHILE ANOTHER WAS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LESSENING CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

DRYING FROM ALOFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
WITH DENSE FOG QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE LINGERING THE LOWER LEVELS...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME UP FORM THE
NE...MORNING FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE SE DURING THE DAY...REMAINING LIGHT. WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE REGION AND A
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...THE SHORT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOME
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE TROF MULTIPLE TIMES FROM
SAT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ORIENTED TO OUR
NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EARLY FRI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...A ROBUST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT MORNING. IT ITS WAKE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWFA AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER...THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS INCONSISTENT AND THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE FROPA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I
STEADILY RAMP POPS UP FORM WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z SAT...POPS DROP BACK
BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE DRY. TEMPS WILL COOL AFTER THE FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE
MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH DECLINING CLOUD COVER.
IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     LOW   59%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   61%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  82%     LOW   57%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     MED   60%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 291747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KGSP 291717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA COASTS
TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH
DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   60%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   63%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%     MED   60%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA COASTS
TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH
DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   60%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   63%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%     MED   60%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA COASTS
TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH
DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   60%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   63%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%     MED   60%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA COASTS
TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THE MAIN DECK WILL BE BELOW 3000 FT...ALBEIT WITH
DECLINING CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT...A
BRIEF MVFR CIG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES BUT KGSP HAVE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS COVER FRO
TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FORM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY BEHIND A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...DESPITE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING...THE BEST BET FOR CIGS
WILL BE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COL AIR WILL POOL. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD FOG BY DAWN...BUT KEEPS ITS LOWEST VSBYS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR NOW FOOTHILLS SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY IN THE
TAFS...WHILE KAVL WILL HAVE IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY OR GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   60%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   63%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%     MED   60%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   59%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER CLOSE TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
LIKELY...BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL. IT APPEARS RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TEETERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR.
OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW-END IFR FOR NOW. PREVAILING IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER CLOSE TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
LIKELY...BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL. IT APPEARS RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TEETERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR.
OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW-END IFR FOR NOW. PREVAILING IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291624 CCA
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291624 CCA
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE OLD COASTAL FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SET OF HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT
WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. QPF WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...ESPECIALLY IN TATTNALL COUNTY WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA FOR THE GREATEST
RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR FROM HAMPTON COUNTY INTO INLAND
BERKELEY COUNTY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND INLAND BERKELEY WITH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING...HOWEVER
REMAINS A POSSIBLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WATCH
REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1-3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 1000 FEET TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. TRANSPORT WINDS WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. SMOKE
MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 1000 FEET TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. TRANSPORT WINDS WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. SMOKE
MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 1000 FEET TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. TRANSPORT WINDS WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. SMOKE
MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 1000 FEET TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. TRANSPORT WINDS WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. SMOKE
MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291349
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TO THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL FRONT...AS LEAST OVER OUR AREA... PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED CROSSING THE PIEDMONT...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
LATER TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS OR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS
TODAY...THAT COULD PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE
INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA
AFTER DUMPING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SEABROOK AND KIAWAH ISLANDS UP
INTO MOUNT PLEASANT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON EARLIER THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DESTIN FLORIDA WILL
RACE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY THE 29/12Z
KCHS RAOB COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROMOTE A SLOW BUT STEADY EXPANSION OF THE RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE TRAINING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL BUT
ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH
ADDITIONAL GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A FEW OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS WOULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SIGNAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CAREFULLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE...PERHAPS WARMING A FEW MORE
DEGREES BEFORE STEADYING OUT OR EVEN FALLING SOME AS THE RAIN
SHIELD BECOMES MORE EXPANSIVE. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS LOOKS LOW. RAP/NAM-12 INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR
TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ARCING BACK INTO THE SAVANNAH-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE RETAINED
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA
AFTER DUMPING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SEABROOK AND KIAWAH ISLANDS UP
INTO MOUNT PLEASANT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON EARLIER THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DESTIN FLORIDA WILL
RACE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY THE 29/12Z
KCHS RAOB COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROMOTE A SLOW BUT STEADY EXPANSION OF THE RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE TRAINING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL BUT
ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH
ADDITIONAL GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A FEW OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS WOULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SIGNAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CAREFULLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE...PERHAPS WARMING A FEW MORE
DEGREES BEFORE STEADYING OUT OR EVEN FALLING SOME AS THE RAIN
SHIELD BECOMES MORE EXPANSIVE. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS LOOKS LOW. RAP/NAM-12 INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR
TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ARCING BACK INTO THE SAVANNAH-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE RETAINED
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA
AFTER DUMPING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SEABROOK AND KIAWAH ISLANDS UP
INTO MOUNT PLEASANT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON EARLIER THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DESTIN FLORIDA WILL
RACE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY THE 29/12Z
KCHS RAOB COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROMOTE A SLOW BUT STEADY EXPANSION OF THE RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE TRAINING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL BUT
ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH
ADDITIONAL GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A FEW OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS WOULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SIGNAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CAREFULLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE...PERHAPS WARMING A FEW MORE
DEGREES BEFORE STEADYING OUT OR EVEN FALLING SOME AS THE RAIN
SHIELD BECOMES MORE EXPANSIVE. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS LOOKS LOW. RAP/NAM-12 INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR
TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ARCING BACK INTO THE SAVANNAH-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE RETAINED
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291334
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...MORE ONE WET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA
AFTER DUMPING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SEABROOK AND KIAWAH ISLANDS UP
INTO MOUNT PLEASANT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON EARLIER THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DESTIN FLORIDA WILL
RACE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY THE 29/12Z
KCHS RAOB COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROMOTE A SLOW BUT STEADY EXPANSION OF THE RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE TRAINING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL BUT
ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH
ADDITIONAL GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A FEW OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS WOULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SIGNAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CAREFULLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE...PERHAPS WARMING A FEW MORE
DEGREES BEFORE STEADYING OUT OR EVEN FALLING SOME AS THE RAIN
SHIELD BECOMES MORE EXPANSIVE. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS LOOKS LOW. RAP/NAM-12 INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS SUGGEST THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR
TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ARCING BACK INTO THE SAVANNAH-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE RETAINED
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
AND GETTING REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291200
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE...EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALLENDALE...JENKINS AND SCREVEN COUNTY. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT COULD EXPAND FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
THEREFORE RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING INLAND FROM THE COAST
AS WELL.

TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD
INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH.
THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291200
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE...EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALLENDALE...JENKINS AND SCREVEN COUNTY. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT COULD EXPAND FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
THEREFORE RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING INLAND FROM THE COAST
AS WELL.

TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD
INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH.
THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT KCHS AND IFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LOWER DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING
2-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NEARLY
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH...AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-
     137>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291112
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
712 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF DAYBREAK...THE KGSP RADAR SHOWS BANDS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING NE ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOWLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS FOR TODAY...AS WAS SUSPECTED ALL ALONG...IT LOOKS AS IF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BYPASS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO FCST A RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FORCING
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND THE UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NE. READERS ARE REMINDED THAT
THE PRECIP PROBABILITY IN THE FCST IS THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT
LEAST 0.01 INCH OF RAIN...AND THAT A VERY HIGH POP DOES NOT
NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SO...WE ARE
LEFT WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A VERY LITTLE BIT OF RAIN.
WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT
DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS TODAY...THAT COULD
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. OBS AND RADAR TRENDS BEAR THIS
OUT AS OF 11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD DECK BLO 050 IN THE
EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA
MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO 01Z AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N TO NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLEARING SKY AND DRY AIR MOVING IN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
SET UP A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 10Z AND EVALUATE FURTHER
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE GREAT ENUF TO
REDUCE VSBY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT A SOONER THAN KCLT LATER THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THINK THE GUIDANCE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON
TO SOMETHING THIS TIME WITH VLIFR IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL LIMIT
KAVL TO IFR FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO MAKE
TO IFR IF FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING
IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH. THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS
GETTING 1-2 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AS THIS IS WHERE WE THINK WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING
IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH. THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS
GETTING 1-2 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AS THIS IS WHERE WE THINK WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING
IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH. THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS
GETTING 1-2 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AS THIS IS WHERE WE THINK WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...RATHER WET DAY IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/JET.
RAIN SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
REMAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHEAST GA/SC AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE RISK OF FLOODING
IS GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE COAST WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH. THUS...THE TYPICAL URBAN COASTAL AREAS LIKE
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. THERE COULD BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LOWER/MID
60S INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND GETTING
REPLACED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STEADILY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING AN END TO ALL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON BY
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OR EVEN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM THE NORTH. A RETURN FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE STRONG. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5 FT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.3
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
IS HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST HAMPERS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE THINKING MOST INLAND
LOCALES WILL PICK UP A HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITH COASTAL AREAS
GETTING 1-2 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING DEEPER CONVECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AS THIS IS WHERE WE THINK WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS LIKE DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AROUND HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...THE KGSP RADAR SHOWS BANDS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
MOVING NE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EARLY ON ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT THAT AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILL IN A BIT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

AS FOR TODAY...AS WAS SUSPECTED ALL ALONG...IT LOOKS AS IF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BYPASS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO FCST A RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FORCING
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND THE UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NE. READERS ARE REMINDED THAT
THE PRECIP PROBABILITY IN THE FCST IS THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT
LEAST 0.01 INCH OF RAIN...AND THAT A VERY HIGH POP DOES NOT
NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SO...WE ARE
LEFT WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A VERY LITTLE BIT OF RAIN.
WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT
DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS TODAY...THAT COULD
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       MED   68%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  82%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...THE KGSP RADAR SHOWS BANDS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
MOVING NE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EARLY ON ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT THAT AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILL IN A BIT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

AS FOR TODAY...AS WAS SUSPECTED ALL ALONG...IT LOOKS AS IF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BYPASS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO FCST A RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FORCING
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND THE UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NE. READERS ARE REMINDED THAT
THE PRECIP PROBABILITY IN THE FCST IS THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT
LEAST 0.01 INCH OF RAIN...AND THAT A VERY HIGH POP DOES NOT
NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SO...WE ARE
LEFT WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A VERY LITTLE BIT OF RAIN.
WHAT RAIN FALLS SHOULD GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MID/UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT
DRAMATICALLY. ASSUMING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLS TODAY...THAT COULD
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE INCLUDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH VALUES NEAR 80
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON THURSDAY...INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY/S VALUES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING L/W
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH H85 TEMPS ACROSS CWA UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 80 EAST OF I-85.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE L/W TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SFC CAPE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO 1.7 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING FRONT AND TROUGH...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW TSRA ON FRIDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS
AND CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL,

NEXT WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       MED   68%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  82%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
309 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 290550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS SEEN ON KGSP RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH IT CONFIRM
THAT RAIN IS INDEED REACHING THE GROUND. WILL BUMP UP PRECIP PROB TO
LIKELY RANGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AS THIS BAND GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD
OVER THE NE GEORGIA AND NC MTNS. ELSEWHERE...JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY THE END OF THE
MONDAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE
SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65.
WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW
NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS SEEN ON KGSP RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH IT CONFIRM
THAT RAIN IS INDEED REACHING THE GROUND. WILL BUMP UP PRECIP PROB TO
LIKELY RANGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AS THIS BAND GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD
OVER THE NE GEORGIA AND NC MTNS. ELSEWHERE...JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY THE END OF THE
MONDAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE
SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65.
WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW
NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS SEEN ON KGSP RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH IT CONFIRM
THAT RAIN IS INDEED REACHING THE GROUND. WILL BUMP UP PRECIP PROB TO
LIKELY RANGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AS THIS BAND GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD
OVER THE NE GEORGIA AND NC MTNS. ELSEWHERE...JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY THE END OF THE
MONDAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE
SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65.
WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW
NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS SEEN ON KGSP RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH IT CONFIRM
THAT RAIN IS INDEED REACHING THE GROUND. WILL BUMP UP PRECIP PROB TO
LIKELY RANGE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AS THIS BAND GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD
OVER THE NE GEORGIA AND NC MTNS. ELSEWHERE...JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY THE END OF THE
MONDAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE
SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65.
WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW
NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OUT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT AT A GREAT ENOUGH RATE TO BRING THE CEILING
DOWN OR LOWER VSBY ENOUGH FOR MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY CLOUD
DECK BLO 050 IN THE EVENT THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON SFC OBS
OVER CENTRAL/ERN GA MAKE IT THIS FAR N. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE THIS
IN LATER ISSUANCES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND 23Z TO
01Z AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EWD. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT N
TO NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL GA MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. WILL START WITH A
TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILING AT KAND AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. THINK THE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH FOG ACROSS THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN...BUT
FEW LOW STRATOCU AT KAVL SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO FOR MVFR IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR OBS AT K1A5 AND AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT A RATE
GREAT ENUF TO REDUCE VSBY.

OUTLOOK...COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC LOW...
PROVIDED WE SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FOG/VSBY CONCERNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY EACH MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290436
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1236 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES BEST RAIN COVERAGE NEAR THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST. THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THERE
WON/T BE MUCH MOTION AND PWATS ARE OVER 2 INCHES MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290436
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1236 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES BEST RAIN COVERAGE NEAR THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST. THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THERE
WON/T BE MUCH MOTION AND PWATS ARE OVER 2 INCHES MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMS THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE TIME WITH IFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE VFR
BUT ALSO MVFR AT TIMES...AND EVEN LOWER DURING HEAVY RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT FEW DAYS TIDES
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AROUND CHARLESTON AND DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 290228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREAS OF SPRINKLES INCREASING THIS EVENING EVEN AS
THE SHOWERS REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT THE SPRINKLES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN CWFA. OTHERWISE...FCST REASONING STILL
UNCHANGED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND SRN UPSTATE. ALSO
UNCHANGED IS THE EXPECTED LIGHT QPF AS GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     LOW   59%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290214
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR POPS
TRENDS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOST FREQUENTLY PUSH
ONSHORE INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-26...WHILE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF THESE FAVORED AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCING
TOWARD THE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1 INCHES...SO ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WILL IMPACT AN ALREADY
COMPLEX FORECAST. VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290214
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR POPS
TRENDS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOST FREQUENTLY PUSH
ONSHORE INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-26...WHILE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF THESE FAVORED AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCING
TOWARD THE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1 INCHES...SO ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WILL IMPACT AN ALREADY
COMPLEX FORECAST. VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290214
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR POPS
TRENDS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOST FREQUENTLY PUSH
ONSHORE INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-26...WHILE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF THESE FAVORED AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCING
TOWARD THE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1 INCHES...SO ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WILL IMPACT AN ALREADY
COMPLEX FORECAST. VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290214
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR POPS
TRENDS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOST FREQUENTLY PUSH
ONSHORE INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-26...WHILE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF THESE FAVORED AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCING
TOWARD THE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE 00Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1 INCHES...SO ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WILL IMPACT AN ALREADY
COMPLEX FORECAST. VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEAS 2-4 FT TO PREVAIL...HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS62 KGSP 282347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 282347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...RADAR STILL RELATIVELY QUITE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
SPRINKLES AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIP BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS GA AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN
UPSTATE. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THE BEST PRECIP CHC
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GULF COAST CONVECTION ROBS THE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX. IN FACT...THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC HAS SHIFTED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HAVE TAKEN THESE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE UPDATE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING POP THIS EVENING
AND QPF THRU MON. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GULF COASTAL
CONVECTION ROBBING THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CUTTING
PRECIP CHC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY MON. WITH THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WITH THE DECREASE IN POTENTIAL...HAVE REMOVED
ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAFS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR AROUND
THAT TIME THOUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT NLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT SLY
MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MON NITE...
PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY CONCERNS
REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282313
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM
SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282313
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM
SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282313
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM
SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282313
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM
SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282303
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...RAISED EVENING POPS
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND LOWERED
EVENING POPS INLAND. OF NOTE...ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAD
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KSAV THIS EVENING...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KCHS. OUTSIDE THESE BRIEF PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PULLS THE THE COASTAL FRONT/ASSOCIATED TROUGH TOWARD
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE EAST...EVEN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS 2-3 FT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THIS
EVENING

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 282303
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...RAISED EVENING POPS
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND LOWERED
EVENING POPS INLAND. OF NOTE...ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAD
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KSAV THIS EVENING...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KCHS. OUTSIDE THESE BRIEF PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. PERIODS OF LIFR COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PULLS THE THE COASTAL FRONT/ASSOCIATED TROUGH TOWARD
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE EAST...EVEN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS 2-3 FT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THIS
EVENING

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282250
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...RAISED EVENING POPS
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND LOWERED
EVENING POPS INLAND.

THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE MVFR/IFR ARE MOST LIKELY...PERIODS OF LIFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PULLS THE THE COASTAL FRONT/ASSOCIATED TROUGH TOWARD
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE EAST...EVEN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS 2-3 FT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THIS
EVENING

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 282250
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND AN OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...RAISED EVENING POPS
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND LOWERED
EVENING POPS INLAND.

THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE MVFR/IFR ARE MOST LIKELY...PERIODS OF LIFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BETWEEN THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL
FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PULLS THE THE COASTAL FRONT/ASSOCIATED TROUGH TOWARD
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE EAST...EVEN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS 2-3 FT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT
ACROSS NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OVER GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THIS
EVENING

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282206
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282206
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282206
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282206
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 282048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LLVL WEDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE ONLY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
-SHRA AROUND 08Z-11Z. AT KCLT...PRECIP WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH
THE AIRFIELD...LIKELY ARND 15Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE TAF
PERIOD ATOP THE SFC RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH MON
NIGHT...PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY
CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 282048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...RADAR IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN LINE WITH OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ALLOW
PRECIP TO QUICKLY RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH GOING
FCST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LLVL WEDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE ONLY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
-SHRA AROUND 08Z-11Z. AT KCLT...PRECIP WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH
THE AIRFIELD...LIKELY ARND 15Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE TAF
PERIOD ATOP THE SFC RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH MON
NIGHT...PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY
CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   75%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LONG
DURATION WEDGE HOLDS FIRM INLAND. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST WHICH AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LONG
DURATION WEDGE HOLDS FIRM INLAND. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST WHICH AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LONG
DURATION WEDGE HOLDS FIRM INLAND. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST WHICH AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK
AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS SHARPENING WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIFLUENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE COASTAL FRONT AND INLAND
WEDGE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING BROAD CORRIDOR
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
ARE STEADILY RAMPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRIDDED VALUES REACHING
40-60 PERCENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT WILL
BECOME HEAVIER WITH TIME AS PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
29/12Z. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR TSTMS WITH THE LATEST LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS
SHOWING VALUES BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LIKELY TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM AND WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
SHOULD HELP SET UP AN EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
SC/GA STATE LINE AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FAVORS A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE COAST...BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THE EAST-WEST CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAIRLY QUICK AS A MID LVL TROUGH FORCES IT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 1-3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE GIVEN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS 80 DEGREES...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DECLINE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LAGGING H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY A FEW
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOWER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LONG
DURATION WEDGE HOLDS FIRM INLAND. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST WHICH AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT 15-20 KT TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE LATE WEEK WHILE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281818
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM...SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE
88D ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES CURRENTLY. MECH LIFT AND CONTINUED
ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH GOM MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE
GA...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW/RN UPSTATE AND ESCARPMENT
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE EVENING.

A WEAK GOM COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SLOWLY TRACKING ENE. THIS WILL BRING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOST ZONES AFT 09Z OR SO. NOT
SEEING A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AS THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR SPURIOUS DEFORMATION FORCING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MODESTLY STRONG SFC WEDGE OVER THE FCST AREA. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN
UPSTATE AND NE GA...WHERE ARND 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL IN A HIGHLY MOIST ENV.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE SRN GA COAST BY
THE END OF THE MON DAY PERIOD. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME QPF
ENHANCEMENT ATOP THE SFC WEDGE MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH N/S OF NEW PRECIP THROUGH
THIS TIME...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE EVENT TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH 00Z MON WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH...TO ARND A HALF INCH
NORTH. CONTINUED UPSLOPE H85 FLOW WILL INSTIGATE -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON AFTERNOON...WITH THIN
CAPE NOTED BTW H8/H65. WITH CONTINUOUS PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL
BE HELD A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY U60S NON/MTNS AND ACROSS
MTN VALLEYS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...A POSITIVE TILT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRYING FROM THE WEST WILL PRECEDE
THE WAVE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RAPID END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...AND THEN NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END ISOLD SHRA POPS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE TUE AS MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OVER TO THE N. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LINE WITH LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MINS...WITH MAXES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED AFTN WITH INMPROVING INSULATION
DESPITE THE NRLY/EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LLVL WEDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE ONLY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
-SHRA AROUND 08Z-11Z. AT KCLT...PRECIP WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH
THE AIRFIELD...LIKELY ARND 15Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE TAF
PERIOD ATOP THE SFC RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH MON
NIGHT...PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY
CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN
GA WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH 29/04Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY
ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN
GA WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH 29/04Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY
ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN
GA WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH 29/04Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY
ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN
GA WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH 29/04Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY
ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 281738
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST.
TEMPS ARE RISING SLOWLY AS EXPECTED AND CLOUD COVER IS HANDLED WELL
BY THE SKY GRIDS.

1030 AM EDT UPDATE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX IN FROM THE
EAST AND CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED MIXED ACROSS THE FAR SW FA AND THE
NC PIEDMONT ZONES. THUS...THE SKY GRIDS WERE ADJ DOWN IN A FEW
REGIONS OUTSIDE THE THICK CI ADV. HR/LY TEMPS/TDS WERE ADJ SLIGHTLY
AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO...MAINLY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND ERN NC ZONES.

AS OF 650 AM...WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS MORNING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR POPS AND TEMPS
APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT BKN TO OVC
CIRRUS WAS COVERING THE DEEP SOUTH REGION...LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL ADVECT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS GA/SC...INCREASING SHARPLY
AFTER 18Z. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL QPF REMAINS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEST CHCS
ACROSS THE MTNS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
CHC POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE FAVORED MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE L70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID
TO U70S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED BY STEADY LIGHT NE WINDS AND BUILD CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...NAM INDICATES THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 6Z
TO 9Z...WITH A BAND OF 305K TO 315K OMEGA ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
EAST FACING SLOPES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT POPS RISING FROM CHC
DURING THE LATE EVENING TO CATE BY DAWN. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
NEARLY ZERO OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING ONLY A MENTION OF SHOWERS. QPF
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BASED ON LATEST NATIONAL GUIDANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE MTNS
TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN STILL LOOKS
LIKE A SAFE BET FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND THE
EXPECTED MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION...ALL TO
ACT UPON DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. THUS...
EXPANDING THE CATEGORICAL POP WAS AN EASY DECISION FOR MONDAY. TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE A RAINY DAY. ITS THE
AMOUNT THAT IS PROBLEMATIC. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOT
ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER. IT IS LIKELY THAT
AN IN-SITU WEDGE OR REMNANT COOL POOL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEGATING
ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE MODELS DEVELOP AN 850 MB LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE 850MB WIND MORE NORTHEASTERLY...WHICH CUTS
DOWN ON MECHANICAL FORCING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. A BIG PROBLEM COULD
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARMER AIR CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST...OR AT LEAST ALONG A WEDGE BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE MOISTURE FLUX TOWARD THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL PV
ANOMALIES THAT DRIVE PATCHES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE MODEL
OUTPUT...THE LOCATION OF WHICH HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT. BOTTOM LINE...WOULD NOT BET THE FARM ON ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE ANY FLOODING...SO NO WATCHES ARE CONTEMPLATED. THE HWO ALREADY
MENTIONS HEAVY RAIN SO THAT DIE HAS BEEN CAST...AND SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AS A MATTER OF COURSE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RAMPED DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING PER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE PROVIDED A
TREND TOWARD ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES EARLIER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. THIS POP TREND SUGGESTS A WARMING TEMP TREND FOR TUESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THAT DAY HAS BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE FLOW AT 850MB COMES AROUND TO DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE IS QUIET AND RELATIVELY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK DOWN
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUPPORT OF LINGERING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE CWFA TO START OFF
THE PERIOD...THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AS IS. FRIDAY/S SENSIBLE WX FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AS WELL FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT...PROBABLY AIDING IN A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST
PLACES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...AND
AN EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH PROGGED TO SET UP NEXT WEEKEND...WILL
FEATURE A DRY DAYS 6/7 WITH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LLVL WEDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE ONLY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
-SHRA AROUND 08Z-11Z. AT KCLT...PRECIP WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH
THE AIRFIELD...LIKELY ARND 15Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE
TAF PERIOD ATOP THE SFC RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH MON
NIGHT...PERHAPS INDUCING DENSE FG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN VALLEYS. THE ATMOS DRIES OUT TUE INTO FRI WITH MORNING VSBY
CONCERNS REMAINING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
1. LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING FIRM.
2. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
3. EXPANDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


THE PERSISTENT...LONG DURATION WEDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM
THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
CORE. THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST OF BUOY 41004 AND IS
ATTACHED TO WHAT APPEARS TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUOY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
HEAD OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS A RIBBON OF UPPER
DIFLUENCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND PWATS SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST SET OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOLDING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...RANGING
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHER POPS MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY
DEPENDING ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
LIFTED INDEX PROGS DO SHOW VALUES GOING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES AND FAR SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS WAS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS WELL AS A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL ENABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEARING SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...THE LATEST 00Z/28 MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE PWATS PUSHING 2.5 INCHES /WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MOST
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC/GA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FROM WPC. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE HELD AT OR BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/RAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING LOW CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WHILE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE GOOD NORTHEAST
FETCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOUTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...LIKELY FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE 2-4 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT TIMES...MAINLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
1. LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING FIRM.
2. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
3. EXPANDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


THE PERSISTENT...LONG DURATION WEDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM
THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
CORE. THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST OF BUOY 41004 AND IS
ATTACHED TO WHAT APPEARS TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUOY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
HEAD OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS A RIBBON OF UPPER
DIFLUENCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND PWATS SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST SET OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOLDING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...RANGING
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHER POPS MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY
DEPENDING ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
LIFTED INDEX PROGS DO SHOW VALUES GOING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES AND FAR SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS WAS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS WELL AS A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL ENABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEARING SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...THE LATEST 00Z/28 MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE PWATS PUSHING 2.5 INCHES /WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MOST
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC/GA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FROM WPC. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE HELD AT OR BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/RAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING LOW CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WHILE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE GOOD NORTHEAST
FETCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOUTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...LIKELY FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE 2-4 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT TIMES...MAINLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
1. LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING FIRM.
2. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
3. EXPANDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


THE PERSISTENT...LONG DURATION WEDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM
THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
CORE. THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST OF BUOY 41004 AND IS
ATTACHED TO WHAT APPEARS TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUOY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
HEAD OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS A RIBBON OF UPPER
DIFLUENCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND PWATS SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST SET OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOLDING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...RANGING
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHER POPS MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY
DEPENDING ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
LIFTED INDEX PROGS DO SHOW VALUES GOING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES AND FAR SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS WAS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS WELL AS A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL ENABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEARING SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...THE LATEST 00Z/28 MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE PWATS PUSHING 2.5 INCHES /WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MOST
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC/GA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FROM WPC. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE HELD AT OR BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/RAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING LOW CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WHILE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE GOOD NORTHEAST
FETCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOUTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...LIKELY FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE 2-4 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT TIMES...MAINLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MID WEEK AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...
1. LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING FIRM.
2. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
3. EXPANDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


THE PERSISTENT...LONG DURATION WEDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM
THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
CORE. THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST OF BUOY 41004 AND IS
ATTACHED TO WHAT APPEARS TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUOY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
HEAD OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY ROTATING
ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS A RIBBON OF UPPER
DIFLUENCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND PWATS SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST SET OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOLDING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...RANGING
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHER POPS MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY
DEPENDING ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
LIFTED INDEX PROGS DO SHOW VALUES GOING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES AND FAR SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS WAS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS WELL AS A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL ENABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEARING SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...THE LATEST 00Z/28 MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE PWATS PUSHING 2.5 INCHES /WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/JET. THE MOST
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC/GA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FROM WPC. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE HELD AT OR BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/RAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PUSHES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNTIL DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO MVFR AT
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SOLID WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP INTO IFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCHS AS BAND OF HEAVY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MOVES INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER 10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING RAIN EXPECTED
BY 12-14Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z MONDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING LOW CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WHILE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE GOOD NORTHEAST
FETCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOUTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...LIKELY FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE 2-4 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT TIMES...MAINLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE...BUT PARTS
ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1134 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAYBREAK THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY OVER SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST AND PROMOTE A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR FA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING OUR FA FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROGGED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW TRACK...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW...TO PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION WED/THU. DRIER AIR
TO ENTER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER WED/THU WITH LESS INDICATIONS OF LINGERING
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT FOR FRI/FRI NT TIME
FRAME...WHICH BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE MOVING THROUGH BY 12Z SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 29/04Z.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE CONTINUES TO KEEP
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MVFR AT AGS/DNL AFTER 29/04Z...AND
CAE/CUB/OGB 29/06Z. EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAFS ATTM...HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
AGS/DNL AFTER 29/09Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1134 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAYBREAK THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY OVER SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST AND PROMOTE A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR FA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING OUR FA FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROGGED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW TRACK...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW...TO PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION WED/THU. DRIER AIR
TO ENTER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER WED/THU WITH LESS INDICATIONS OF LINGERING
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT FOR FRI/FRI NT TIME
FRAME...WHICH BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE MOVING THROUGH BY 12Z SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 29/04Z.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE CONTINUES TO KEEP
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MVFR AT AGS/DNL AFTER 29/04Z...AND
CAE/CUB/OGB 29/06Z. EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAFS ATTM...HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
AGS/DNL AFTER 29/09Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 281444
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX IN FROM THE
EAST AND CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED MIXED ACROSS THE FAR SW FA AND THE
NC PIEDMONT ZONES. THUS...THE SKY GRIDS WERE ADJ DOWN IN A FEW
REGIONS OUTSIDE THE THICK CI ADV. HR/LY TEMPS/TDS WERE ADJ SLIGHTLY
AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO...MAINLY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND ERN NC ZONES.

AS OF 650 AM...WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS MORNING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR POPS AND TEMPS
APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 330 AM...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT BKN TO OVC
CIRRUS WAS COVERING THE DEEP SOUTH REGION...LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL ADVECT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS GA/SC...INCREASING SHARPLY
AFTER 18Z. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL QPF REMAINS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEST CHCS
ACROSS THE MTNS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
CHC POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE FAVORED MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE L70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID
TO U70S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED BY STEADY LIGHT NE WINDS AND BUILD CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...NAM INDICATES THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 6Z
TO 9Z...WITH A BAND OF 305K TO 315K OMEGA ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
EAST FACING SLOPES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT POPS RISING FROM CHC
DURING THE LATE EVENING TO CATE BY DAWN. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
NEARLY ZERO OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING ONLY A MENTION OF SHOWERS. QPF
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BASED ON LATEST NATIONAL GUIDANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE MTNS
TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN STILL LOOKS
LIKE A SAFE BET FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND THE
EXPECTED MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION...ALL TO
ACT UPON DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. THUS...
EXPANDING THE CATEGORICAL POP WAS AN EASY DECISION FOR MONDAY. TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE A RAINY DAY. ITS THE
AMOUNT THAT IS PROBLEMATIC. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOT
ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER. IT IS LIKELY THAT
AN IN-SITU WEDGE OR REMNANT COOL POOL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEGATING
ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE MODELS DEVELOP AN 850 MB LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE 850MB WIND MORE NORTHEASTERLY...WHICH CUTS
DOWN ON MECHANICAL FORCING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. A BIG PROBLEM COULD
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARMER AIR CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST...OR AT LEAST ALONG A WEDGE BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE MOISTURE FLUX TOWARD THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL PV
ANOMALIES THAT DRIVE PATCHES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE MODEL
OUTPUT...THE LOCATION OF WHICH HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM ONE RUN TO
THE NEXT. BOTTOM LINE...WOULD NOT BET THE FARM ON ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE ANY FLOODING...SO NO WATCHES ARE CONTEMPLATED. THE HWO ALREADY
MENTIONS HEAVY RAIN SO THAT DIE HAS BEEN CAST...AND SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AS A MATTER OF COURSE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RAMPED DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING PER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE PROVIDED A
TREND TOWARD ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES EARLIER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. THIS POP TREND SUGGESTS A WARMING TEMP TREND FOR TUESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THAT DAY HAS BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE FLOW AT 850MB COMES AROUND TO DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE IS QUIET AND RELATIVELY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK DOWN
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AM NOT INCLINED TO PUT
MUCH STOCK IN THE LOW QPF GENERATED BY THE GFS IN THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS THE FCST WAS
KEPT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW DECENT
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHO THEY STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THINK THE FCST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS...PERIODS OF CALM
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 050-060 KFT
ALONG WITH CIRRUS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z
TO 14Z THIS MORNING AT KCLT AND KAVL. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SW TO NE AFTER 6Z MON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UNSETTLE WEATHER MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERIODS OF CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON/TUE PRODUCING CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   77%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







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