Home > Products > State Listing > South Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDGSP |  AFDCAE |  AFDCHS |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 300008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary northwest of
Charleston this evening will move slowly northeast across
northeast South Carolina through Monday and into North Carolina
Tuesday. This will keep showers across the area for the next
couple of days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary to the northwest of
Charleston this evening. Radar at 23z indicates rain focused in
the low country where low level convergence maximized. Overall
radar trends suggests showers will diminish across the region this
evening and become more scattered.  This is supported by the
latest HRRR high resolution NMM and RAP models. Overcast tonight
with diminishing winds. Overnight lows generally in the middle
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TD Bonnie is forecast to still be across northeastern portions of
South Carolina Monday before pushing northeastward and out of the
state Monday night into Tuesday. As long as the remnant center of
circulation remains close to the cwa, expect some sort of rain
chances for much of the area on Monday. Greatest chance will be
across the central and northeastern counties. At this time
though only forecasting high chance pops across the northeast
early, then increasing to likely during the afternoon. Further off
to the southwest, closer to the CSRA, pops will be lower, mainly
slight chance through the day. By Monday night the low will be
tracking further off to the northeast, and expect best rain
chances to push northeast along with the the low. Tuesday should
see more of a diurnal trend with any rainfall.

Expect temperatures to begin returning closer to normal on
Monday across the CSRA, but still remaining below normal across
the northeastern counties closer to the remnant circulation of TD
Bonnie. Overnight lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night close to
guidance and a little above climo. With more sunshine on Tuesday,
expect the entire CWA to return closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern
through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been
associated with Bonnie will be lifting northeastward Wednesday,
bringing weak ridging into the region for Thursday and Friday.
Then for the Weekend, longwave trough will approach the region
from the upper mid-west, while a cutoff low develops over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Expect a diurnal precip trend of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end
of the week, then increasing rain chances for the weekend.
Have continued to stay close to previous forecast for
temperatures, with readings generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With considerable low-level moisture in place...Expect MVFR/IFR
ceilings to develop overnight...

Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the CHS area and is
expected to very slowly move north/northeast over the next 24
hours. The rain chance will diminish overnight but expect
stratus/strato-cu to develop across the region with widespread
MVFR after 03z. This is supported by the LAMP guidance. IFR
ceilings may develop toward morning...patchy fog possible although
some mixing in the boundary layer expected to continue. Winds
mainly north/or north northwest...gusty this evening to around 15
knots but should diminish after 03z.

Ceilings expected to rise during the morning with VFR by 18z.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon but focus may shift to the northeast of Terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day may result in restrictions at times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 292344
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
744 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will meander over southern SC through
Monday before gradually lifting northeast away from the area. A
cold front will then approach the region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface observations, satellite imagery and radar continue show
the broad circulation of Tropical Depression Bonnie over southern
Charleston County as of early this evening, actually sliding to
near the Atlantic coast. The system is trapped beneath a weak
negatively tilted trough over the southeast, so not much change in
strength and/or location is forecast through the night. Recent
satellite pictures showing that Bonnie may actually be starting to
loop counter-clockwise, very close to a consensus forecast of the
GFS, NAM, RAP, HRRR and SREF that shows the system only in the
vicinity of Moncks Corner by late tonight, maybe finally starting
to show a little better movement northeast around the low and mid
level ridge in the Atlantic by that time.

Given PWAT of 1.8-2.0 inches or between the 90th and 100th
percentile, co-located with sluggish moving Bonnie and it`s
associated low level convergence/forcing, heavy rains will
continue to be the main weather hazard with the tropical
depression. Since Bonnie will undergo some diurnal fluctuations
this evening and given that there isn`t too much in the way of
instability to begin with, we don`t show heavy rains any longer
than during this evening, mainly from Colleton and Beaufort
counties to the rest of the SC zones bordering the Savannah River,
and also over sections of GA in some places near and north of
I-16. Savannah will likely escape the heavy rains at least for the
evening.

As the night progresses and Bonnie starts to lift a little north-
northeast, some of the heavier and steadier rains that have been
absent from parts of the Charleston tri-county district should
start to arrive. For now we have only mention of moderate rains,
but given the excessive moisture and associated forcing, heavy
rains are certainly possible in and near these areas as well.

Much of the region south of I-16 will get by with no more than
slight chance to low end chance Pops.

We have made significant adjustments to the temp curve based on
rain-cooled conditions over much of the central CWFA, but lows for
tonight still on track into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The remnants of TS Bonnie are expected to linger across eastern SC
through Monday before moving northeast into eastern NC through mid
week. The deeper moisture will shift northeast of the area with time
which will translate to generally lowering rain chances and warming
temperatures with time. However, heavy rainfall will be possible at
times, especially Monday across southeast SC. This could lead to
localized flash flooding given precipitable water values around 2
inches and generally weak steering flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface pressure pattern will be in place Thursday into Friday
before a cold front approaches from the west over the weekend, and
potentially stalls near or over the area. Rain chances peak each day
in the afternoon with a relative minimum at night, with the better
chances occurring Saturday & Sunday. Upper ridge over the area will
boost temperatures a couple degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR or possible IFR conditions to impact the terminals tonight
into Monday, due to the proximity of Tropical Depression Boonie,
which will be in the vicinity of KCHS tonight, finally and
hopefully starting to pull away Monday. This should allow for at
least some improvement back to VFR at KSAV later Monday. While the
00z TAFs show only VCSH, occasional moderate or even heavy rains
can still occur tonight into Monday at KCHS, with light to
moderate rains at KSAV. Adjustments will be necessary pending
radar trends and the future movement of Bonnie.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings or worse are likely at
KCHS Mon night along with some showers/storms as the remnants of TS
Bonnie slowly lift northeast away from the area through mid week.
Thereafter...low risk for flight restrictions from mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms and early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: We have extended the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for
the Atlantic waters outside of Charleston Harbor until at least
late this evening or overnight. This is in response to an ongoing
and fairly tight cyclonic pressure pattern around TD Bonnie,
located in Dorchester County as of early this evening. Bonnie will
continue to meander around through the night, and it`s possible
that the advisories may need to be extended further in time since
little change in strength is forecast in that system as per
guidance from NHC. Coverage of showers and t-storms is forecast to
increase during the late evening and/or overnight hours as Bonnie
could slip a little closer to the coast for a short time.

Monday through Friday...Marine conditions expected to improve Monday
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie slowly move northeast near
the Carolina coast through mid week. Thereafter, no significant
winds/seas expected as a weak pressure pattern prevails before a
cold front approaches from the west late week and winds increase a
bit. Otherwise winds will mainly be 10 knots or less with seas 2-3
feet.

Rip Currents: An enhanced risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches through at least Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352-
     354-374.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292222
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
622 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will meander over southern SC through
Monday before gradually lifting northeast away from the area. A
cold front will then approach the region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface observations, satellite imagery and radar continue show
the broad circulation of Tropical Depression Bonnie close to
Summerville SC as of early this evening. The system is trapped
beneath a weak negatively tilted trough over the southeast, so
not much change in strength and/or location is forecast through
the night. In fact the official NHC forecast, very close to a
consensus forecast of the GFS, NAM and SREF shows the system only
in the vicinity of Moncks Corner by late tonight, maybe finally
starting to show a little better movement northeast around the low
and mid level ridge in the Atlantic by that time.

Given PWAT of 1.8-2.0 inches or between the 90th and 100th
percentile, co-located with sluggish moving Bonnie and it`s
associated low level convergence/forcing, heavy rains will
continue to be the main weather hazard with the tropical
depression. Since Bonnie will undergo some diurnal fluctuations
this evening and given that there isn`t too much in the way of
instability to begin with, we don`t show heavy rains any longer
than during this evening, mainly from Colleton and Beaufort
counties to the rest of the SC zones bordering the Savannah River,
and also over sections of GA in some places near and north of
I-16. Savannah will likely escape the heavy rains at least for the
evening.

As the night progresses and Bonnie starts to lift a little north-
northeast, some of the heavier and steadier rains that have been
absent from parts of the Charleston tri-county district should
start to arrive. For now we have only mention of moderate rains,
but given the excessive moisture and associated forcing, heavy
rains are certainly possible in and near these areas as well.

Much of the region south of I-16 will get by with no more than
slight chance to low end chance Pops.

We have made significant adjustments to the temp curve based on
rain-cooled conditions over much of the central CWFA, but lows for
tonight still on track into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The remnants of TS Bonnie are expected to linger across eastern SC
through Monday before moving northeast into eastern NC through mid
week. The deeper moisture will shift northeast of the area with time
which will translate to generally lowering rain chances and warming
temperatures with time. However, heavy rainfall will be possible at
times, especially Monday across southeast SC. This could lead to
localized flash flooding given precipitable water values around 2
inches and generally weak steering flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak surface pressure pattern will be in place Thursday into Friday
before a cold front approaches from the west over the weekend, and
potentially stalls near or over the area. Rain chances peak each day
in the afternoon with a relative minimum at night, with the better
chances occurring Saturday & Sunday. Upper ridge over the area will
boost temperatures a couple degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings likely at both terminals through tonight,
potentially into Monday morning. Occasional showers may impact
both terminals which would briefly decrease vsby.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings or worse are likely at
KCHS Mon night along with some showers/storms as the remnants of TS
Bonnie slowly lift northeast away from the area through mid week.
Thereafter...low risk for flight restrictions from mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms and early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: We have extended the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for
the Atlantic waters outside of Charleston Harbor until at least
late this evening or overnight. This is in response to an ongoing
and fairly tight cyclonic pressure pattern around TD Bonnie,
located in Dorchester County as of early this evening. Bonnie will
continue to meander around through the night, and it`s possible
that the advisories may need to be extended further in time since
little change in strength is forecast in that system as per
guidance from NHC. Coverage of showers and t-storms is forecast to
increase during the late evening and/or overnight hours as Bonnie
could slip a little closer to the coast for a short time.

Monday through Friday...Marine conditions expected to improve Monday
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie slowly move northeast near
the Carolina coast through mid week. Thereafter, no significant
winds/seas expected as a weak pressure pattern prevails before a
cold front approaches from the west late week and winds increase a
bit. Otherwise winds will mainly be 10 knots or less with seas 2-3
feet.

Rip Currents: An enhanced risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches through at least Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352-
     354-374.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 292117
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
517 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will persist over the region as tropical system
Bonnie stalls near the South Carolina coast. The remnants of Bonnie
will drift northeast along the Carolina Coast through the first half
of the week. A weak cold front will then push into the southern
Appalachians from the northwest and stall later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 515 pm...band of showers has stalled and has begun to
dissipate along and west of I-26. Another area of showers will
likely drift over the Charlotte metro area during the early evening
hours. I will update the forecast to adjust pops and sky to latest
trends. In addition...I will populate the hourly temp and dewpoints
with observations.

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: Big story continues to be the remnants of
TD Bonnie. The circulation center is basically one county inland and
can fairly easily be seen  on radar and satellite. Rain bands
continue to spiral around the system with an area of rain butting up
against the foothills and extending into the Upstate/Upper Savannah
Valley. Luckily low levels are still fairly dry with cloud decks up
at 8-10kft, so for the most part only light to occasionally moderate
rain. Looking at MRMS 12-hr QPEs highest totals are just over 1.5"
down in eastern Greenwood County. Soils are easily able to handle
this and overall do not expect much more than 0.5-1" or so. Luckily
for folks in the Charlotte area the I-77 corridor seems to be in a
bit of a lull with just overcast skies with intermittent light rain,
but more dry than rain. Some instability is working its way inland
from the coast around the circulation and may poke into the
Charlotte Metro area this afternoon (seeing a whopping 100 J/kg on
the latest mesoanalysis), so have slight chance thunder across some
of those extreme eastern counties. Other chance of thunder would be
in extreme western zones where clearing skies have allowed sbCAPEs
to climb over 500 J/kg and while convection remains low-topped and
isolated, cannot rule out enough oomph to get some lightning across
the SW NC mountains.

Widespread cloud cover tonight will continue as TD Bonnie meanders
slowly northeast up the SC coast, pushed slowly by a high-wavelength
shortwave passes through the Great Lakes and Appalachians, but
should see some scattering toward daybreak which will allow lows to
drop a few degrees cooler than last night. Very weak flow aloft is
expected during the day tomorrow with again a minimum of instability
across the foothills and western Piedmont but with increasing
instability through the day mainly along the I-77 corridor.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover but should
climb back in to the mid 80s across a good chunk of the Upstate, and
upper 80s in the Upper Savannah Valley, but in general pretty close
(within a degree or two) to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
At 230 PM Sunday: On Monday evening weak nearly zonal upper level
flow will extend across the southeast USA, and will persist into
Wednesday, even as modest upper troughing eventually sets up along
he southern portion of eastern seaboard. A very weak upper impulse
appears to slowly cross the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the surface, on Monday evening what`s left of tropical storm
Bonnie will be moving slowly northeast along the SC coast toward the
NC coast. Moisture associated with this system will will still be
impacting our area, but the models disagree on whether the moisture
will extend as far east as the mountains, or just to the Interstate
77 corridor.

As Bonnie`s remains move along the NC coast on Tuesday, moisture is
expected to decrease over our area, but not enough to preclude
modest precipitation, and this trend continues into Wednesday.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be quite limited, as
isentropic downglide will be present in the west side of Bonnie`s
remains, however instability will be present both Tuesday and
Wednesday, perhaps supporting a few stronger showers. Temperatures
will run slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At 230 PM Sunday: On Wednesday night an upper trough will be
crossing the upper MS River Valley and and Southern Plains, while
weak upper troughing remains along the southern eastern seaboard.
The northern portion upper trough reaches the Great Lakes by
Thursday, where it remains into Sunday, while the southern portion
reaches the southern MS River Valley. Weak mid level vorticity
appears to reach our area late in the period, though the models
disagree on when and how much.

At the surface, on Wednesday night, moisture associated with tropical
system Bonnie will remain over our area, while a cold front crosses
the MS River Valley. The front reaches the Southern Appalachians
late Thursday, and slowly crosses the foothills and piedmont on
Friday, stalling near the southeastern portion of our are on
Saturday. There is some disagreement between the models on how far
north moisture will linger as a surface wave moves along the stalled
boundary on Sunday. Precipitation amounts are expected to peak with
the arrival of the cold front late in the forecast period, but at
this point do not appear to be excessive. Temperatures are expected
to cool from slightly above normal to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT: -SHRA associated with rainbands from TD Bonnie have moved
west, lining up closer to the foothills/I-26 corridor/Upper Savannah
Valley. Have improved conditions at KCLT to VCSH with only TEMPO for
brief MVFR conditions, but otherwise VFR this evening. All guidance
drops cigs to MVFR overnight with some hints at IFR so have moved up
MVFR cigs to 06z. Improved cigs to MVFR and introduced PROB30 TSRA
at 15z Monday as instability increases. Winds should remain N/NE
through the period, with low-end gusts possible this afternoon but
generally 5-10kt through the period.

Elsewhere: As mentioned in the KCLT discussion, rain band will
affect basically all other TAFs except maybe KHKY through the
afternoon before moisture begins to wane, with improving conditions
overnight. Except for the SW NC mountains, any restrictions should
remain to the east toward KCLT overnight so have kept conditions at
other sites VFR, but will need to watch especially KAVL. TSRA
chances not high enough at these sites to introduce PROB30 Monday
just yet, but may need to consider it for after 18z with later
issuances especially for KHKY. As with KCLT, winds generally N/NE
through the period but a little lighter than KCLT due to Bonnie`s
influences a little farther away.

Outlook: Bonnie is expected to move very slowly up the coastal
Carolinas over the next several days. Lingering shower chances into
the early part of the week would be greatest at KCLT. Otherwise,
patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each morning, with scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291127
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is southeast of Charleston this morning.
Bonnie will continue to gradually move north northeast and current
forecast is for a landfall just north of Charleston late this
afternoon/early evening. Once Bonnie makes landfall it is expected
to gradually make a turn toward the northeast and off the coast of
the Grand Strand by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and Radar this morning show Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just southeast of Charleston. The storm is expected to
continue slowly north northeast through the day making landfall
late this afternoon/early evening just north of Charleston. The
convection around the storm had continued to diminish...but areas
of light/moderate rain continue. One area along the Savannah
River continues to move slowly northwest. The second area is a
band that moving ashore along the Grand Strand and into the Pee
Dee Region moving northwest. Regional radar shows what appears to
be the main circulation near the center of Bonnie spiraling
northeast toward the coast near Charleston. Some of the rain
early this morning has been locally heavy with amounts from 1 to
3 inches across the Low Country along with portions of the
extreme eastern Midlands and southern Midlands/CSRA. At this
time...do not anticipate needing a Flash Flood Watch based on the
heaviest rainfall being more isolate in nature rather than
widespread. With dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s/lower 70s
and pw values continuing to increase through the morning hours to
nearly 2.0 inches expect some of the rainfall to be locally heavy
throughout the day. Some areas could see from 1 to 3 additional
inches.

There has been very little lightning with convection which is
not that uncommon with tropical systems. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. The possibility exist for a
few gusty winds in stronger convection this afternoon and tonight
as Bonnie moves closer the CWA. Do not expect a continuous rain
through the day and tonight...but periods of showers along with
the possibility of a rumble or two of thunder. Models indicate the
heaviest rainfall today will stretch from the coast up through the
Midlands and then toward the Pee Dee tonight.

Temperatures already mild this morning with most areas in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Guidance numbers along with current
numbers look reasonably good. Did lower temperatures slightly due
to expected cloudy/mostly cloudy skies along with occasional
showers/tsra.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast for TS Bonnie has been reasonably consistent...showing
a brief stay on land before moving off the South Carolina coast
around Georgetown/Grand Strand. It is then forecasted to slowly
move to the east northeast for the next few days. As the low
pushes northeast of the CWA Monday into Monday night...the chances
for showers/isolated tsra will gradually decrease. However still
expect to see at least a slight chance of a shower through the
remainder of the period.

Expect temperatures to return closer to normal on Monday...but
expect warming reading across the CSRA with more sun/lower rain
chances with cooler reading across the northern Midlands/Pee Dee
with more clouds and rain as Bonnie continues to move away from
the CWA. Overnight lows Monday Night close to guidance and a
little above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next
weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS show the trough will push eastward
across the conus. However, the southern portion of the trough
slows and both models indicate a closed low trying to develop
across the lower MS River Valley by the end of the week/next
weekend. Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to
scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next
week, with increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead
of the next cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast
which is for temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TS Bonnie, currently centered just off the central SC coast, is
expected to move very slowly toward the coast and then inland
later this afternoon. Associated rain activity and restrictions
expected across our cwa. In the near term, radar loops indicate
best threat of heavy shower activity, with IFR VSBYS at times,
will affect AGS/DNL. Otherwise, latest surface obs indicate MVFR
to IFR CIG restrictions will affect all terminals this morning,
with some uncertainty regarding rain coverage and any diurnal
improvement this afternoon. Satellite and radar currently
indicates limited convection near the coast currently, but
additional activity could develop later today. For now, will
assume little overall change during the TAF period due to very
slow movement of the cyclone. Will concentrate on the near term,
following latest radar loops, surface observation trends, and high
resolution model guidance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Monday.  Otherwise no restrictions expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291122
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie will track towards the South Carolina coast
today, then slowly move northeast through mid-week while weakening.
A cold front will then approach the region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TS Bonnie had shifted to more of a north northwest track
overnight; hesitant to come off the Gulf Stream. Our main concern
today continues to evolve around the risk for locally heavy rains
and potential flooding. Model consensus indicates that the pinned
region of deformation and upper forcing enhanced by a secondary
jet streak and broad low level convergence will continue to focus
the best potential over Southeast South Carolina west of a line
from Lake Moultrie to Charleston give the latest track of Bonnie
pans out. Localized flash flooding is possible today with this
main band of rains. While widespread flash flooding is unlikely
there could be a few pockets of rainfall exceeding 3 inches during
the 12Z to 21Z time frame. We have refrained from issuing a flash
flood watch today since models indicate that the most intense rain
should have occurred overnight and additional areas are likely to
redevelop across the i-95 corridor to the north of where the
overnight heavy rains fell in Jasper and Beaufort Counties.

Wind concerns have been diminished by the weakening of TS Bonnie
overnight along with ongoing trends. A TS warning remains in effect
North of Edisto Beach this morning but there is a chance that gusts
will struggle to reach tropical storm force from Charleston
northward as Bonnie nears the upper South Carolina Coast if new deep
convection fails to fire today. Mesoscale complexities do remain
numerous and since the GFS continues to indicate good deep layered
instability developing later today across the Tri-County area and
this may result in some deeper convection and stronger wind gusts.

Clouds and rains will hold temps down in the upper 70s many areas
to the north of i-16. Savannah is right on the cusp between dry and
wet as well as cooler versus warmer thus a tricky spot to forecast
for today. Warmer readings are likely close to the Altamaha River
where mid 80s are likely.

Tonight the tropical low should be moving slowly but gradually away
from the Charleston area while skies continue to clear out over
Southeast Georgia. Shower chances over South Carolina will gradually
diminish after midnight with convergence and upper forcing on the
wane.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday: Tropical Storm Bonnie will have likely weakened to a remnant
low (per latest National Hurricane Center forecast) and will be
located somewhere in the vicinity of the northern Charleston county
coast at the start of the period. The low will be very slow to exit
the area, making northeast progress only to the upper South Carolina
coast by Monday evening. Main threats associated with this system
should largely be over, but some decent rain could linger across the
far northern zones during the day. Precipitation chances will then
decrease Monday night as deepest moisture shifts out of the area.

Tuesday into Wednesday: Weather pattern will be in transition as
remnants of TS Bonnie continue to slowly lift northeast along the
coast, and maybe even mill around off the NC coast for a period of
time. Models have trended drier both days, so have decreased PoPs to
now feature mainly slight chance, with a pocket of chances across
the northern zones on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a couple degrees
above normal as heights aloft build through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak surface pressure pattern will be in place Thursday into Friday
before a cold front approaches from the west over the weekend, and
potentially stalls near or over the area. Rain chances peak each day
in the afternoon with a relative minimum at night, with the better
chances occurring Saturday & Sunday. Upper ridge over the area will
boost temperatures a couple degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Periods of rain, heavy at times, rotating onshore through
the valid time period. MVFR to IFR cigs will continue to
fluctuate as rain intensities deviate and rain bands set up. Deep
moisture remains available and low cigs will probably persist.
Surface winds will probably gust to 20-25 kt at times through the
afternoon hours.

KSAV: the sw shield of rain continued to flirt with the terminal
and it could hang on for quite a while into the afternoon hours.
MVFR to IFR cigs are likely as surface winds slowly back to nw. By
later today, rain chances should begin to diminish with mvfr cigs
probably lingering into early evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Aviation conditions expected to improve
late Monday as remnants of TS Bonnie slowly lift northeast away from
the area. Mainly VFR thereafter. Low-end chances for stratus each
night towards daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
TS Bonnie was pulling away from the offshore Georgia Waters this
morning and TS warnings have been dropped in AMZ374. Small craft
advisories will be in effect for the Georgia waters this morning.
TS force winds are expected off the Charleston County with
hazardous conditions anticipated until the Bonnie exits tonight.
Seas will be subsiding to the south of the Savannah River as
directions have come around to offshore and this should assist the
decreasing trends.

Monday through Friday: Marine conditions expected to improve Monday
as remnants of the tropical system slowly lift northeast through mid
week. Thereafter, weak pressure pattern will be in place before a
cold front approaches from the west late week. After the lingering
effects of the tropical system end, winds/seas should be relatively
quiet with no headlines expected. Winds on average 10 knots or less
with seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-050-052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291101
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will spread across the region today as tropical system
Bonnie stalls near the South Carolina coast. Bonnie will then drift
northeast along the coast of the Carolinas through the week. A weak
cold front will push into the southern Appalachians from the west
and stall late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT: Higher PoPs have been pushed more quickly farther
west with the leading edge of light showers reaching the ground.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with the center of Tropical
Storm Bonnie just off the southeast South Carolina coast. Bands of
mostly light rainfall continue to work westward into the eastern
escarpment of the mountains. It is quite possible that the best
convection and deeper moisture with the system could continue wrap
to the northwest side of the circulation as it meanders into coastal
SC. Although this setup has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
across parts of our forecast area, particularly the piedmont, the
axis of any heaviest rainfall remains difficult to pin down and QPF
could be more evenly spread about the region. The more eastern
solution of the NAM and SREF members appears reasonable given the
expected coastal track of Bonnie, but the more western GFS and its
members have verified better thus far this morning. Will lean
heavily on WPC QPF guidance mixed with a model blend to put the
heaviest 1 to 1.5 inch stripe through tonight mainly from Chester to
Monroe. In addition, the better instability will generally remain
east of our area. No flood watches appear needed at this point, but
the piedmont gradient in QPF could be quite sharp and it bears
watching.

In addition to the tropical system rainfall, upper level divergence
over the mountains today should produce some scattered convection
over the high terrain this afternoon. Otherwise, Bonnie should
meander slowly NE along coastal SC through tonight with PoPs slowly
diminishing from the southwest. Anticipate a small diurnal range on
temperatures with mostly 70s this afternoon and 60s tonight except
50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie...which is expected to weaken back to a
tropical depression by Monday morning...should begin to drift
east/northeast over NE SC. The deeper moisture and mid LVL
circulation will also shift east...so Monday will feature a little
less cloud cover...esp west of I-77 with typical slight CHC to
low-end CHC Pop for AFTN convection. The heavy rain threat directly
associated with Bonnie should pretty much end by Monday
AFTN...unless the system ends up further inland and doesn/t make the
eastward drift right away.

Models agree on weak steering flow to continue on Tuesday...with
Bonnie or its remnants still INVOF Wilmington NC by Tuesday evening.
There should be ENUF INSTBY for ISOLD to SCT convection again
ACRS the area...but not really ENUF for a pulse severe threat. Temps
both days will be slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...Upper ridge builds along the East Coast
Wed-Thu...while a northern stream short wave trough tracks into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The medium range guidance generally
agrees the the remnants of Bonnie will linger near eastern NC or
just off the Outer Banks. This results in continued weak deep-layer
flow atop the CWFA. Generally little change in air mass is
expected...except for slightly warmer temps which should result in a
little better INSTBY each day. PoPs trend above climo by
Thursday...and continue the usual diurnal cycle. Temps will be a
category or two above normal both days.

Friday and Saturday...A cold front associated with the approaching
upper trough will slow down and eventually stall roughly along the
appalachians. The air mass should be fairly moist with good INSTBY
ACRS the CWFA both days. Above climo PoPs (high-end CHC to likely)
is forecast for both days. Temps will trend slightly cooler for highs
and warmer for lows due to the increased clouds and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Light tropical shower bands continue to work northwest
across the piedmont around daybreak this morning. MVFR clouds do not
appear too far upstream and should invade the airfield by 14Z. Slow
recovery from MVFR to lower end VFR is possible through the
afternoon hours. Northerly winds will increase through the day with
low end gusts likely as T.S. Bonnie moves into the SC coastline.
Scattered showers from additional weak tropical bands are expected
through tonight.

Elsewhere: Moisture from T.S. Bonnie remains a bit more uncertain
across the mountain and foothill TAF sites, but occasional light
showers are already in place and should continue through mid
afternoon before drier air starts to work back in from the
southwest. MVFR restrictions look most likely later this morning at
KHKY. Expect occasional northerly gusts across the foothills through
the day as the Bonnie circulation reaches the SC coastline.

Outlook: Bonnie is expected to move very slowly up the coastal
Carolinas over the next several days. Lingering shower chances into
the early part of the week would be greatest at KCLT. Otherwise,
patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each morning, with scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291045
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is southeast of Charleston this morning.
Bonnie will continue to gradually move north northeast and current
forecast is for a landfall just north of Charleston late this
afternoon/early evening. Once Bonnie makes landfall it is expected
to gradually make a turn toward the northeast and off the coast of
the Grand Strand by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and Radar this morning show Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just southeast of Charleston. The storm is expected to
continue slowly north northeast through the day making landfall
late this afternoon/early evening just north of Charleston. The
convection around the storm had continued to diminish
overnight...but two areas of light/moderate rain continue. One
along the Savannah River continues to move slowly northwest. The
second area is a band that moving ashore along the Grand Strand
and into the Pee Dee Region moving northwest. Regional radar shows
what appears to be the main circulation near the center of Bonnie
spiraling northeast toward the coast near Charleston. Some of the
rain overnight has been locally heavy with amounts from 1 to 3
inches across the Lowcountry along with portions of the extreme
eastern Midlands and southern Midlands/CSRA. At this time...do not
anticipate needing a Flash Flood Watch based on the heaviest
rainfall being more isolate in nature rather than widespread. With
dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s/lower 70s and pw values
continuing to increase through the morning hours to nearly 2.0
inches expect some of the rainfall to be locally heavy throughout
the day. Some areas could see from 1 to 3 additional inches.

There has been very little lightning with convection overnight
which is not that uncommon with tropical systems. With limited
instability thunderstorms will remain isolated. The possibility
exist for a few gusty winds in stronger convection this afternoon
and tonight as Bonnie moves closer the CWA. Do not expect a
continuous rain through the day and tonight...but periods of
showers along with the possibility of a rumble or two of thunder.
Models indicate the heaviest rainfall today will stretch from the
coast up through the Midlands and then toward the Pee Dee tonight.

Temperatures already mild this morning with most areas in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Guidance numbers along with current
numbers look reasonably good. Did lower temperatures slightly due
to expected cloudy/mostly cloudy skies along with occasional
showers/tsra.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As TS Bonnie or TS Bonnie the forecast has been reasonably
consistent on a brief stay on land before moving off the South
Carolina coast around Georgetown/Grand Strand. Is is then
forecasted to slowly move to the east northeast for the next few
days. As the low pushes northeast of the CWA Monday into Monday
night...the chances for showers/iso tsra will gradually decrease.
However still expect to see at least a slight chance of a shower
through the remainder of the period.

Expect temperatures to return closer to normal on Monday...but
expect warming reading across the CSRA with more sun/lower rain
chances with cooler reading across the northern Midlands/Pee Dee
with more clouds and rain as Bonnie continues to move away from
the CWA. Overnight lows Monday Night close to guidance and a
little above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next
weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS show the trough will push eastward
across the conus. However, the srn portion of the trough slows and
both models indicate a closed low trying to develop across the
lower MS River Valley by the end of the week/next weekend. Will
continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered afternoon
shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with increasing
rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next cold front.
Have stayed close to current forecast which is for temperatures to
remain generally at or slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tropical Storm Bonnie, currently centered just off the central SC
coast, is expected to move very slowly toward the coast. Associated
rain activity and restrictions expected across our forecast area
(FA).  In the near term, radar loops indicate best threat of heavy
shower activity, with IFR VSBYS at times, will affect AGS/DNL.
Otherwise, latest surface obs indicate MVFR to IFR CIG
restrictions will affect all terminals this morning, with some
uncertainty regarding rain coverage and any diurnal improvement
this afternoon. Satellite and radar currently indicates limited
convection near the coast currently, but additional activity could
develop later today. For now, will assume little overall change
during the TAF period due to very slow movement of the cyclone.
Will concentrate on the near term, following latest radar loops,
surface observation trends, and high resolution model guidance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290008
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
808 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie over the southwest Atlantic will move
onshore in southern South Carolina Sunday morning, then move
slowly northeast through Tuesday while weakening. A cold front
will then approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TD 2 has strengthened into TS Bonnie this afternoon though the
forecast path of the system is quite similar to previously. The
latest forecast brings the system onshore between Beaufort and
Charleston Sunday morning as a marginal tropical storm, then moves
it north and then northeast as it quickly weakens. Some gusty
winds will likely develop along the coast overnight with the
strongest winds late tonight into Sunday morning.

A potentially greater concern is the the heavy rainfall. The first
wave of moderate to heavy rain has been centered over the
Charleston metro area with verified rainfall reports ranging from
1 to 1.4" between Kiawah Island and Mount Pleasant. A weak jet
streak was noted earlier this afternoon across central SC/NC which
was enhancing the upper level ascent over southern SC. As this
feature moves north, we may see a slight decrease in rainfall
intensity. Nevertheless, with Precipitable Water values now
approaching 2" along the SC coast and considerable low and mid
level ascent on the north and west periphery of the storm,
widespread rainfall is anticipated over most of southern SC
overnight. Our latest storm total precipitation shows widespread 1
to 3" in southern SC with the highest totals 3-4" over inland
Dorchester and Berkeley counties. Most areas should be able to
handle this amount of rainfall due to fairly dry antecedent
conditions and the fact that the rain will occur over a fairly
long interval. However some localized flooding is possible
especially if heavy rain occurs early Sun morning coincident with
the 2 am high tide in Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TS Bonnie will be near the SC coast Sunday with the latest NHC
forecast taking the system slowly northeast along/near the upper
SC/lower NC coast coast through Tue. The deeper moisture will
shift northeast of the area with time which will translate to
lowering rain chances and warming temperatures with time. However,
heavy rainfall will be possible at times, especially Sunday, and
this could lead to some localized flooding of mainly low-lying and
poorly- drained areas. Isolated tornadoes possible as well, mainly
along the central SC coast into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement for the long term period. Weak
pressure pattern will be in place for the latter half of the work
week as whatever remnants of the tropical system meanders off the
mid-Atlantic coast and eventually dissipates. A cold front is then
forecast to approach the region Friday into Saturday, resulting in
an increase in precipitation chances. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal as heights aloft build.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Periods of rain, heavy at times, rotating onshore tonight.
IFR visibility continuing, eventually lifting to MVFR later
tonight as the rain decreases in intensity somewhat. However IFR
ceilings will likely develop later this evening and persist until
daybreak Sun. Slight improvement expected on Sun though at least
MVFR likely to persist into the afternoon.

KSAV: MVFR ceilings expected overnight with a period of IFR closer
to daybreak Sun. Some rain may skirt past the terminal this
evening and overnight but the heaviest rain will remain east of
the terminal. Improving conditions on Sunday from late morning on.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic flight restrictions into
Monday, especially at KCHS, as TS Bonnie moves across southeast
SC with occasionally heavy/gusty showers and possibly
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
TS Bonnie will bring increasing winds/seas to coastal waters
through tonight. Dangerous conditions anticipated over most of the
marine area as the storm moves into the area. The one zone without
a Tropical Storm Warning...nearshore GA waters...now has a Small
Craft Advisory due to tightening gradient on the western periphery
of the storm.

Sunday through Thursday...TS Bonnie expected to move through the
SC coastal waters Sunday morning before pushing ashore. Expect
improving conditions later Sunday as the system moves ashore and
weakens. We issued a SCA for the near shore GA waters into early
Sunday based on the latest NHC forecast track of Bonnie. SCA
conditions will persist into Sun night across the SC waters.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through Sunday evening for GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-047>052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through Sunday evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-374.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...ECT/RJB
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282358
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry day today, a period of cooler and wetter weather may
develop late in the weekend through early next week as Atlantic low
pressure moves toward the South Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...satellite imagery shows a thickening
veil of high and mid clouds streaming northward across the fcst area
from the circulation around Bonnie. KGSP radar shows the vanguard of
light precip spreading up from the coast into the Charlotte metro
area. Think it may be several hours before any of this reaches the
ground as more than just sprinkles. Temps will be adjusted based on
recent observations. Otherwise...no major changes suggested thus
far.

Overall synoptic setup has a shortwave trough moving across the
northern tier of the country with the upper weakness associated with
Bonnie trying to phase with this shortwave but generally remaining its
own entity. Luckily the GFS and ECWMF are starting to line up a
little more and this is confirmed by guidance from national centers,
so have generally taken a blend through the near-term. So what we
have is Bonnie approaching the SC coast overnight. Guidance differs
on timing of landfall with NAM the fastest but looks like it should
be right around 12z Sunday. By this time, the northern tier
shortwave has progressed east enough that it will halt the NWward
progression of the tropical system, so the surface low will sort of
sit and spin around the SC coast, slowly shift NEward, through the
rest of the period. The GFS has the strongest surface reflection but
all operational models are within a few mb of each other.

As for sensible weather impacts, subsidence around the periphery of
the system is suppressing the typical summertime-like convection
that we might otherwise be seeing across the mountains CAM guidance
starts bringing some showery activity associated with rain bands
into the area by around midnight, with coverage increasing through
the day on Sunday. Even though we`re talking the 1st- into
2nd-period forecast, still pretty much impossible to nail down
details regarding timing and intensity of any potential rain bands
to move in, but in general Sunday looks like a fairly rainy day with
"occasional" rain being a good descriptor. Have introduced
categorical pops for eastern zones generally between 12z-21z Sunday;
bufr soundings for KCLT are basically saturated all but the very
lowest layer by around 5am. Expect some tapering off toward the end
of the period. Basin-average QPF remains less than 1/2" but we all
know that these tropical rain showers can be fairly efficient
rainfall producers, but luckily looks like we should not have any
significant hydro impacts (at least with this forecast package).

Thunder potential looks overall fairly low with really not much in
the way of sbCAPE available, but enough elevated/muCAPE to keep a
mention of slight chance thunder in the grids through the afternoon
Sunday. Mesohigh along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians may
keep CAPE at a minimum for the central portion of the forecast area.
Severe threat is minimal (and indeed only General Thunder for the
Day2 outlook). Surface winds will increase out of the north tonight
and Sunday to between 10-15kt or so with low-end gusts but otherwise
impacts from winds should be minimal.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will continue to be on a bit of
an increasing trend with lows in the mid 50s across most of the
Piedmont and at best 10 degrees cooler at the higher elevations of
the mountains. Should see much cooler highs tomorrow with widespread
cloud cover and rain...with highs in the mid to upper 70s over the
NC Piedmont and maybe mid 80s over the Upper Savannah Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 230 PM Saturday: On Sunday evening an upper ridge will extend
from the vicinity of Bermuda to New England, while a low amplitude
upper ridge will extend from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Appalachians. The pattern deamplifies over the eastern USA,
resulting in zonal upper level flow by Monday. By Tuesday very weak
upper troughing sets up over FL, while week upper ridging sets up
over the western Great Lakes, with the Southern Appalachians in
between.

At the surface, on Sunday evening a tropical system is expected to
be near the SC coast, with substantial associated moisture spreading
inland over the NC piedmont and northern SC piedmont. More limited
moisture will be present over the foothills and mountains. The
system moves slowly to the NC coast by Monday, with abundant
moisture remaining over the piedmont until late in the day. Although
the bulk of the moisture moves east of the piedmont by Tuesday, the
models show enough moisture remaining over our area to support
modest precipitation.

At this time, precipitation amounts are expected to be limited over
our area, however the Interstate 77 corridor may be subject to
substantial rainfall if greater moisture associated with the
tropical system spreads slightly farther inland. Instability both
Sunday and Monday appears sufficient to support modest convection.
Temperatures are expected to run slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At 230 PM Saturday: On Tuesday night the models close off an upper
low near the NC coast, associated with the tropical system moving
slowly up the NC coast. Meanwhile, week upper ridging will be
present over the gulf states, and an upper trough will extend from
the northern plains to northwest Mexico. The upper low fills and
moves northeast by Thursday, while the upper trough upstream slowly
progresses. By Friday the upper trough reached the MS River Valley,
and by Saturday it reaches the OH River Valley and the Gulf States.

At the surface, a cold front will cross our area on Tuesday night,
stalling near the coast by Wednesday, where it remains into
Thursday. Moisture associated with the front may extend far enough
inland to support lingering precipitation into our eastern zones.
Another cold front approaches from the west on Thursday night,
moving slowly over our area on Friday ands Saturday. Temperatures
will fall from slightly above normal to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR this evening with thickening mid/upper clouds and an
ESE wind...but lower cloud decks already showing up in observations
near the coast...moving toward the NW.  Model guidance has the wind
coming around to N of E in the mid evening...and some light precip
may spread in from the east before midnight as Bonnie approaches the
coast. The guidance has been consistent enough with introducing an
MVFR level ceiling in the 06Z to 08Z time frame...so the TAF keeps
this change at 07Z. Precip should develop/move in from the SE in the
pre-dawn hours...what remains to be seen is how much visibility will
be affected. The trend in the guidance is toward a more optimistic
visibility...so the TAF follows that trend. Think the main precip
area will move out in the early afternoon and chances of thunder are
too low in the afternoon to warrant a mention in the new TAF.

Elsewhere: Other TAF sites will be farther away from impacts from
Bonnie, but overall should see a similar pattern with increasing mid
and then low clouds through the period. KAVL will have less of a
chance of seeing IFR fog early Sunday because of thickening cloud
cover. The least chance for precip will be over the west...so KAND/KAVL
never get more than a PROB30.

Outlook: Uncertainty remains over the westward reach of tropical
moisture associated with Bonnie Sunday night and into early next
week as the surface low spins slowly up the SC and then NC coast.
KCLT will continue to have the best chance of lingering SHRA/TSRA.
Otherwise, patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each morning, with
scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing into early next
week.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   71%     High  87%     High  90%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  85%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  99%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282324
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
724 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move slowly northwest toward the coast overnight. The storm is
expected to make landfall Sunday morning. The storm is expected to
move very slowly northeast along the coast through Monday night. Chances
of rain will increase over the area through Sunday the lower for
Monday and Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Tropical storm Bonnie remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Convection has increased near the center of the storm. The storm
may strengthen slightly tonight as the storm moves over the Gulf
Stream.

The heaviest rain this afternoon has remained in the low country
although radar estimates up to 0.75 inch in the far eastern
Midlands. Radar continues to show mainly light rain spreading
west/northwest into the Eastern Midlands...with a few areas of
enhanced convection along the leading edge/outflow...where gusty
winds have been reported to near 30 knots.

Latest High resolution models suggest a lull in the showers across
the Midlands this evening. However expect moisture flux and
isentropic lift may increase late tonight...especially by 09z so
will continue forecast of increasing pops overnight from east to
west. Highest pops in the East Midlands. Heavy rain possible but
more likely after 12z Sunday. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. Gusty winds possible in
convection...stronger gradient winds possible late tonight with
approaching storm. Overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. High confidence of
MVFR after 06z through Sunday

Tropical Storm Bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move very slowly toward the coast overnight. Area of MVFR
ceilings/visibility remains along the coast early this evening. As
moisture flux increases overnight expect ceilings to lower to MVFR
across the region. Areas of showers/possibly heavy toward 12z
Sunday. Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers during the
day Sunday will result in continued restrictions. IFR possible but
confidence remains low on timing. Gusty winds possible in any
stronger convection...and gradient winds will likely increase by
Sunday afternoon...northwest to northeast 10 to 20 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. Stronger winds possible near the OGB terminal.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical depression two is currently about 190 miles south
southeast of Charleston and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.
Strengthening to a tropical storm is expected tonight with the
storm reaching the Charleston coast Sunday morning. Sunday
afternoon the storm is expected to to northeasterly and move very
slowly along the coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances of rain will
increase over the area through Sunday the lower for Monday and
Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical depression 2 remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Area WSR-88D network shows showers beginning to reach the coast
with a few isolated showers reaching the eastern Midlands. Winds
currently across the area are 5 to 8 mph with winds along the
coast around 10 mph. Showers have begun moving into the far
eastern Midlands and will expand into the central Midlands late
this afternoon and the western Midlands this evening. Although
there is potential for thunderstorms currently coverage remains
limited so will remain with slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds
overnight will accelerate slowly with the eastern Midlands seeing
around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph by daybreak Sunday and lower
speeds elsewhere. Main concern overnight will be potential for
locally heavy rain...however with highest moistures not arriving
until late in the period do not expect any flooding issues
overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for
the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening with MVFR for much of
tonight.

Tropical depression 2 continues to approach the SC coast and will
be just off the CHS coast by daybreak Sunday. Clouds associated
with a large area of convection on the northwest side of the storm
continue to move onshore and will move into the taf sites over
the next several hours. Due to the isolated nature of
thunderstorms associated with the system have remained without
mention of thunder in the tafs. Main concern through the period
will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall...with the
greatest chance of heavy rain toward daybreak Sunday at
CAE/CUB/OGB. Winds will slowly accelerate overnight with gusts up
to 17 knots beginning around 10z at OGB and 14z elsewhere

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281132
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
732 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Two over the southwest Atlantic will approach
the South Carolina coast through tonight, before moving onshore
over Sunday before weakening. The low could linger in the vicinity
into early next week before eventually lifting away to the northeast.
A cold front will approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the South
Carolina Coastal areas. This ahead of the early season tropical
system expected to remain a depression for much of the day prior
to reaching the Gulf Stream tonight. Deep moisture will continue
to advect into the Coastal Carolinas today with bands of showers
expected to increase in coverage across Eastern South Carolina;
especially during the afternoon hours from Beaufort northward.
Widespread clouds will hold temps down into the lower 80s across
northern zones. Across inland Georgia, only some high clouds to
start the day and models indicate a fair amount of destabilization
by the afternoon. we maintain a slight chance of showers and tstms
to the west of I-95 this afternoon as convection will tend to be
more diurnal bound on a decent 850 MB theta-e ridge across our
inland Georgia Zones. It will become breezy along coastal areas
this afternoon as the sea breeze develops along with various
mesoscale shower bands.

Tonight...The tropical low will reach the Gulf Stream waters and
just about all of the model guidance indicates that any strengthening
should be modest as upper level wind shear atop the system is
forecast to remain rather substantial. Pops will be categorical
across across much of the Charleston Tri-County area as strong low
level convergence and deep tropical moisture with pwats of 2
inches or better in place. Rain will likely be heavy at times with
potential for tstms. Most of the rain will likely fall to the
north of the Savannah River overnight. Winds ahead of the tropical
system will ramp up along the coast with potential of tropical
storm force winds in the warning area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast through the short term period continues to remain quite
complex and still somewhat uncertain, highly dependent upon the
evolution of Tropical Depression Two over the southwest Atlantic
between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues
to track a weakening tropical storm/depression along coastal
Charleston County on Sunday Afternoon. Gusty winds associated with
the low are expected to gradually subside as the low either stalls
or hooks briefly before beginning to slide slowly to the northeast
sunday night. the ECMWF had an interesting solution on the 00Z run
with a good bit of upper forcing from a 45 kt upper jet streak enhancing
heavy rain across the South Carolina forecast area on the western
side of the surface low. The QPF differences between the models remain
quite substantial and revolve not only on complex mesoscale details
but on synoptic forcing and atop the system. We have bumped up QPF
to 2-3 inches across the Charleston Tri-County but some higher
amounts could fall back west into places like Hampton and Allendale
Counties.

Due to the small and likely compact nature to the system there will
likely only be some occasional convective bands that contain thunder
storms, so we are showing no more than chance t-storms through the
period. If deep convection were to develop on a knot near the
center, there could be small chances for rotation given 25-30 kt
of deep layered shear but the window at this time appears too
small to play any tornado risk across Eastern Charleston and
Berkeley Counties.The risk for Tropical Storm force winds will be
highest Tonight into early Sunday as the storm reaches the coast.
the areas most likely to experience Tropical Storm winds with
gusts up to 40 mph, will be immediate coastal South Carolina,
including the Charleston metro. Winds of this magnitude may bring
down a few trees and powerlines. Some power outages are possible.

Model solutions still vary on the evolution of Tropical Depression
Two into Tuesday, but consensus slowly lifts the weakening low
northeast from north coastal South Carolina towards the North
Carolina Outer Banks by Tuesday. Thus, the main window for any
threats with this system will have ended. Assuming this track
holds, precipitation chances should decrease through the day
Monday as deepest moisture moves out of the area. Locations across
southeast Georgia could very well be dry much of the day given the
position relative to the low. Current forecast has PoPs ranging
from 40-50% north to around 20% in the south. On Tuesday, rain
chances revolve around the more typical summertime diurnal
convection. High temperatures will be near normal in the mid 80s
to around 90 (highest across southeast Georgia), with lows mainly
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement for the long term period. Weak
pressure pattern will be in place for the latter half of the work
week as whatever remnants of the tropical system remains meanders
off the mid-Atlantic coast and eventually dissipates. A cold front
is then forecast to approach the region Friday into Saturday,
resulting in an increase in precipitation chances. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal as heights aloft build.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: VFR until later today. Could see cigs dropping to mvfr this
afternoon or evening, as Tropical Depression 2 approaches. Showers
associated with very out fringes of the system may develop in the
vicinity by mid to late morning, but greater chances still appear
to be in the late afternoon and evening hours. Diurnal enhancements
including the sea breeze will result in some wind gusts near 20 kt
this afternoon. Tonight rains will increase and become heavier,
winds should become gusty as the gradient tightens but have not
shown any gusts topping 20 kt as yet.

KSAV: VFR conditions will likely persist. Deeper moisture is
forecast to remain north of the terminal. There may be a few
spotty light showers around the area this morning and again this
afternoon into the overnight, but potential not enough to add any
vchs or shra to the KSAV terminal forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chances for at least periodic flight
restrictions into early next week, especially at KCHS, as the
tropical system impacts coastal South Carolina.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Two currently located around 265 miles southeast
of Charleston this morning will track northwest towards the area
today, and eventually move onshore somewhere in the vicinity of
Charleston Sunday afternoon. Winds/seas will deteriorate as result,
with tropical storm conditions expected over the nearshore SC waters
(including the Charleston Harbor) and portions of the outer Georgia
waters late tonight into Sunday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
remain in effect.

Some uncertainty still remains in the track of Tropical Depression
Two, but consensus has the low meandering in the vicinity early
Monday before slowly lifting to the northeast into Tuesday. Latest
National Hurricane Center forecast indicates that the system will
weaken as this occurs, so marine conditions are expected to steadily
improve. Thereafter, winds/seas should remain below any headline
criteria through late week.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents all beaches today and
elevated risks into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-047>052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-374.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281100
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry day today, a period of cooler and wetter weather may
develop late in the weekend through early next week as Atlantic low
pressure moves toward the South Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT, patchy dense fog in the French Broad Valley will
linger for an hour or two after daybreak before quickly dissipating.
Otherwise, a Bermuda high pressure ridge will remain in place across
the forecast area today through tonight as the circulation of
Tropical Depression Two slowly approaches the South Carolina coast.
A dry day should result for most locations with just a few cumulus
developing along with slowly increasing high clouds from the coast.
Any isolated showers or thunderstorms should be confined to the
Smokies vicinity in slightly better low level convergence and
instability, and also to locations well east of I-77 toward sundown.
Max temps should run about one category above climatology this
afternoon.

The latest GFS is very aggressive in bringing TD 2 moisture inland
across the piedmont of the Carolinas tonight, while most of the
other solutions are a bit more reserved. It seems that the nose of
the Bermuda ridge extending westward over the southern Appalachians
may block the path to the west and keep the tropical/subtropical
system nearer the coast through tonight. In fact, the circulation of
TD 2 already seems to be sharpening up the blocking ridge a bit
early this morning. Will thus back slightly off PoPs for tonight but
still keep solid chances of showers over mainly the Interstate 77
corridor. Expect mild mid 60s mins in most areas east of the
mountains as clouds increase from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...By Sunday morning the models are beginning
to diverge on the track of the tropical system. The GFS continues to
be the most NW inland with the track...taking the center onshore by
18z. The 00z ECMWF has just come in similar to the GFS in this
regard...but is a little stronger and starts drifting it to the east
faster than the GFS. The 00z NAM looks similar to previous runs in
keeping the low stalled offshore for several days just SE of
Charleston. With all this said...it looks like the bulk of tropical
rain should stay south and east of the CWFA. The best shot at some
rain from this system will be early Sunday...as a possible rain band
of sorts pivots westward into the I-77 corridor. Interestingly...if
this happens it may keep the Charlotte area more stable for the race
in the evening...as the rain moves out. But confidence on convection
coverage Sunday is still below average. I will go with low-end
likely Pops ACRS the NC piedmont and eastern Upstate...and mainly
mid CHC to slight CHC west. Temps will range from slightly below
normal east to a couple categories above normal west.

Sunday night thru Monday night...with the latest guidance in better
agreement on the tropical low drifting to the east...it looks like
PoPs should trend downward. So I will go with CHC PoP along the Blue
Ridge and slight CHC elsewhere Monday AFTN...generally waning in the
evening. Temps will be one or two categories above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...During the medium range...an upper level
trough will progress across the Midwest and deepen. This will
increase the steering flow across the Mid Atlantic and should carry
out any remnants of the tropical system to the NE Wed-Thu. A cold
front will accompany the approaching trough and both the 00z runs of
the GFS and the ECMWF agree should reach the Appalachians by late
Friday. Moisture will be increasing ahead of the front such that
there should be decent coverage of AFTN SHWRS and TSTMS on
Thursday...and even better coverage on Friday. So I will FCST a
gradual increasing PoP trend thru the medium range with solid CHC
Piedmont to low-end likely Mtn PoPs by Friday. Temps will continue
to be near or slightly above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT, FEW to SCT high based stratocumulus may push westward from
the tropical circulation near the coast today, but generally run
into dry air already in place. Better moisture will start to
increase the latter half of the period with a small chance of
showers wrapping westward toward the I-77 corridor from the coastal
system tonight. Will keep conditions VFR throughout until PROB for
showers ramps up late tonight. Light easterly winds will likely
toggle from ENE to ESE back to NE through the period as the ridge
blocking the path of the tropical system sharpens up.

Elsewhere, LIFR to VLIFR fog and clouds have formed in the French
Broad Valley around KAVL and will be carried as a TEMPO there
through 13Z. Otherwise, the mountain and foothill TAF sites will
remain dry through the period with slowly increasing mid and high
clouds through tonight. KHKY may see scattered showers overnight.
Otherwise, expect mainly light southeast surface winds, possibly
toggling ENE at times in the foothills.

Outlook: Uncertainty remains over the westward reach of tropical
moisture associated with Tropical Depression Two Sunday through
early next week. KCLT will see the closest approach of any deeper
moisture. Otherwise, patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each
morning, with scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing into
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   75%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities