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000
FXUS62 KGSP 012336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WILL KEEP A SLIVER OF ISOLD POP IN SRN AND SW
SECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL GA ACTIVITY SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION. HOWEVER...PROFILES ARE STEADILY STABILIZING AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS GIVEN LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHERE THIS OCCURRED. MIN TEMPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN LINE WITH
PERSISTENCE.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SE WILL BE FLATTENED FURTHER
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP COVERAGE ARRIVING FROM THE NW WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DURING
PEAK HEATING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NC. IMPROVED
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT WILL THEN ALLOW SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO RUN SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE STRENGTH OF
OUTFLOWS TUE AFTN AND EVENING. MAXES SHOULD REACHING A BIT HIGHER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL REMAINING
AROUND 100 OR LESS IN THE WARMEST SE SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY LINGERING LATE DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AROUND ISSUANCE TIME THIS EVENING...AND NO FURTHER
TRIGGERING IS EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH TONIGHT. JUST HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCES OF ANY LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK QUITE LIMITED IN
THE LATEST SOUNDINGS AND MOS FORECASTS. A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH HEATING ON TUE AS WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO WESTERN NC FROM THE NW LATE DAY COULD ALLOW TSRA TO MAKE
A RUN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT AGAIN...AND PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z
APPEARS WARRANTED.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LATE DAY TSRA STEERING E FROM CENTRAL GA AT ISSUANCE
TIME SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE SC TAF SITES THROUGH EVENING AS IT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. EXPECT MAINLY THIN DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL AND ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHKY
AS WELL...AND PERHAPS KAND BUT VERY BRIEF THERE. EXPECT CUMULUS TO
BUILD WITH HEATING AND FLOW TO REMAIN SW...EXCEPT NW AT
KAVL...THROUGH TUE. PROB30 FOR TSRA APPEARS WARRANTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS LATE DAY...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM KAVL TO KHKY
AFTER 20Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY EACH MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 012336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WILL KEEP A SLIVER OF ISOLD POP IN SRN AND SW
SECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL GA ACTIVITY SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION. HOWEVER...PROFILES ARE STEADILY STABILIZING AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS GIVEN LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHERE THIS OCCURRED. MIN TEMPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS IN LINE WITH
PERSISTENCE.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SE WILL BE FLATTENED FURTHER
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP COVERAGE ARRIVING FROM THE NW WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DURING
PEAK HEATING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NC. IMPROVED
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT WILL THEN ALLOW SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO RUN SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE STRENGTH OF
OUTFLOWS TUE AFTN AND EVENING. MAXES SHOULD REACHING A BIT HIGHER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL REMAINING
AROUND 100 OR LESS IN THE WARMEST SE SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY LINGERING LATE DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AROUND ISSUANCE TIME THIS EVENING...AND NO FURTHER
TRIGGERING IS EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH TONIGHT. JUST HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCES OF ANY LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK QUITE LIMITED IN
THE LATEST SOUNDINGS AND MOS FORECASTS. A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH HEATING ON TUE AS WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO WESTERN NC FROM THE NW LATE DAY COULD ALLOW TSRA TO MAKE
A RUN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT AGAIN...AND PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 21Z
APPEARS WARRANTED.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LATE DAY TSRA STEERING E FROM CENTRAL GA AT ISSUANCE
TIME SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE SC TAF SITES THROUGH EVENING AS IT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. EXPECT MAINLY THIN DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL AND ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHKY
AS WELL...AND PERHAPS KAND BUT VERY BRIEF THERE. EXPECT CUMULUS TO
BUILD WITH HEATING AND FLOW TO REMAIN SW...EXCEPT NW AT
KAVL...THROUGH TUE. PROB30 FOR TSRA APPEARS WARRANTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS LATE DAY...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM KAVL TO KHKY
AFTER 20Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY EACH MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 012110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...TRIGGERING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN ALONG WITH
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS PERMITTED A FEW TSRA TO SURVIVE ACROSS
THE ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL BE BOOSTED SLIGHTLY OUT INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY
OUTFLOWS THAT FORM. OTHERWISE...MOST ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL
FORM IN THE TERRAIN INDUCED TRIGGERING OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY OVER
THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N GEORGIA. THE MESOSCALE
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FARTHER SE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN ARE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO
THE VICINITY THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...BUT TSTM TRIGGERS NEAR THE
AIRFIELD REMAIN HARD TO FIND UNLESS A POTENT OUTFLOW CAN SURVIVE
THERE. HAVE ADDED SOME CUMULUS AND VCSH TO THE FORECAST BUT THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE
SW AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z TO 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...AFTN TSRA HAVE FLIRTED WITH KHKY...BUT ARE GENERALLY
MISSING THE AIRFIELD. THE SC TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO KCLT WITH GENERALLY NO NEARBY TRIGGERS DESPITE THE LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. KAVL REMAINS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA
THROUGH MID EVENING BUT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAT VCTS AT PRESENT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN
INTO THE IFR RANGE...AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR
VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 012110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...TRIGGERING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN ALONG WITH
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS PERMITTED A FEW TSRA TO SURVIVE ACROSS
THE ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL BE BOOSTED SLIGHTLY OUT INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY
OUTFLOWS THAT FORM. OTHERWISE...MOST ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL
FORM IN THE TERRAIN INDUCED TRIGGERING OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY OVER
THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N GEORGIA. THE MESOSCALE
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FARTHER SE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN ARE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO
THE VICINITY THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...BUT TSTM TRIGGERS NEAR THE
AIRFIELD REMAIN HARD TO FIND UNLESS A POTENT OUTFLOW CAN SURVIVE
THERE. HAVE ADDED SOME CUMULUS AND VCSH TO THE FORECAST BUT THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE
SW AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z TO 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...AFTN TSRA HAVE FLIRTED WITH KHKY...BUT ARE GENERALLY
MISSING THE AIRFIELD. THE SC TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO KCLT WITH GENERALLY NO NEARBY TRIGGERS DESPITE THE LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. KAVL REMAINS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA
THROUGH MID EVENING BUT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAT VCTS AT PRESENT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN
INTO THE IFR RANGE...AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR
VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 012110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...TRIGGERING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN ALONG WITH
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS PERMITTED A FEW TSRA TO SURVIVE ACROSS
THE ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL BE BOOSTED SLIGHTLY OUT INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY
OUTFLOWS THAT FORM. OTHERWISE...MOST ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL
FORM IN THE TERRAIN INDUCED TRIGGERING OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY OVER
THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N GEORGIA. THE MESOSCALE
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FARTHER SE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN ARE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO
THE VICINITY THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...BUT TSTM TRIGGERS NEAR THE
AIRFIELD REMAIN HARD TO FIND UNLESS A POTENT OUTFLOW CAN SURVIVE
THERE. HAVE ADDED SOME CUMULUS AND VCSH TO THE FORECAST BUT THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE
SW AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z TO 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...AFTN TSRA HAVE FLIRTED WITH KHKY...BUT ARE GENERALLY
MISSING THE AIRFIELD. THE SC TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO KCLT WITH GENERALLY NO NEARBY TRIGGERS DESPITE THE LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. KAVL REMAINS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA
THROUGH MID EVENING BUT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAT VCTS AT PRESENT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN
INTO THE IFR RANGE...AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR
VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 012110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...TRIGGERING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN ALONG WITH
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS PERMITTED A FEW TSRA TO SURVIVE ACROSS
THE ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL BE BOOSTED SLIGHTLY OUT INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY
OUTFLOWS THAT FORM. OTHERWISE...MOST ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL
FORM IN THE TERRAIN INDUCED TRIGGERING OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY OVER
THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N GEORGIA. THE MESOSCALE
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FARTHER SE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN ARE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO
THE VICINITY THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...BUT TSTM TRIGGERS NEAR THE
AIRFIELD REMAIN HARD TO FIND UNLESS A POTENT OUTFLOW CAN SURVIVE
THERE. HAVE ADDED SOME CUMULUS AND VCSH TO THE FORECAST BUT THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE
SW AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z TO 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...AFTN TSRA HAVE FLIRTED WITH KHKY...BUT ARE GENERALLY
MISSING THE AIRFIELD. THE SC TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO KCLT WITH GENERALLY NO NEARBY TRIGGERS DESPITE THE LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. KAVL REMAINS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA
THROUGH MID EVENING BUT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAT VCTS AT PRESENT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN
INTO THE IFR RANGE...AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR
VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/PM






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KGSP 011908 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM










000
FXUS62 KGSP 011908 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT
AND SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND GOOD BUOYANCY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
30-50 ON SAT AND 40-60 ON SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM









000
FXUS62 KGSP 011857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT AN
SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SOLID CHANCE POPS
SAT/SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM THE
NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND
COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KGSP 011857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOW RISE ACROSS THE
REGION...SOURCED FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THAT REMNANT VORTICITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE
TO NO LLVL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR SCT TO NUM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EAST. A BLEND OF FAVORED MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST OF I-85.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND H6. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM FROM
1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. CIN VALUES MAY ERODE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM LIMITS CONVECTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE GFS APPEARS MUCH WETTER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...FORECASTING 40 TO 50 POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS TO 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU SUN AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MOIST S/SE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT LEADING TO
LOW END TO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SAT AN
SUN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HEALTHY QPF RESPONSE OVER THE MTNS SAT AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SOLID CHANCE POPS
SAT/SUN. MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM THE
NE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU INTO SUN AND
COOLS DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 011759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   65%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 011759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND N
GEORGIA...AS ANTICIPATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND
DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THAT TREND WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCT THE THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES AS TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE FLATTENED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE UP THE OH VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST THIS FEATURE
WILL COME IS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BRUSHING PAST THE NRN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AT THAT EARLY TIME...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOR THIS WAVE TO
WORK WITH. ALTHO IT MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION A BIT... IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WAVE PASSES
EARLY ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THEREAFTER...PERHAPS SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...STILL NOT MUCH HAPPENING AT MID LEVELS...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAK PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
COVERAGE OWING TO SOME IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SO...THE TREND OF HAVING A HIGHER POP FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE...AS DOES REACHING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE HIGH TEMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP A LID ON THE DEEPER CONVECTION...SO NO VCSH IS INCLUDED. EXPECT
WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WSW. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR SITUATION...WITH WIND COMING UP FROM THE SW AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AROUND 13Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL HAS THE ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM...IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THEIR
CHANCES...SO THIS IS LIMITED TO A VCTS. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...
AFTER 07Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL GO LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT THAT WILL NOT
BE USED IN THE FCST YET. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN AROUND 13Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   65%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...INDICATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS SOME
POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL THUS CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING...YET PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...INDICATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS SOME
POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL THUS CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING...YET PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY...SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT 850MB...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. CURRENTLY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -5C BUT LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE UP TO 7.5 C/KM.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z SPC WRF RUN IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND MERGING WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA
OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS 21Z-02Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WEAK STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN
OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR AT 850MB
HAS RESULTED IN A LATER START TO THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS
UNDERWAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS SO NOT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB...FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY...SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT 850MB...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. CURRENTLY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -5C BUT LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE UP TO 7.5 C/KM.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z SPC WRF RUN IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND MERGING WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA
OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS 21Z-02Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WEAK STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN
OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR AT 850MB
HAS RESULTED IN A LATER START TO THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS
UNDERWAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS SO NOT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB...FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM...IN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER
THE RIDGETOPS. SO...AFTER A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP...THE CHANCES
SHOULD GO UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MTNS BASED ON OUTPUT OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE
SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCT THE
THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 011541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM...IN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER
THE RIDGETOPS. SO...AFTER A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP...THE CHANCES
SHOULD GO UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MTNS BASED ON OUTPUT OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THE CONSENSUS GENERALLY FAVORS THE
SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCT THE
THICKER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011432
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE
LATE THIS MORNING AND PEAK WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE...INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS SOME POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18 TO 21Z ARE TOO REMOTE FOR
INCLUSION OF ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG A PERSISTENT
CUMULUS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH NOON. MARINERS ARE URGED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA
CAUTION DUE TO HEAVY BOATING TRAFFIC TODAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 011432
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE
LATE THIS MORNING AND PEAK WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE...INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS SOME POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18 TO 21Z ARE TOO REMOTE FOR
INCLUSION OF ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG A PERSISTENT
CUMULUS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH NOON. MARINERS ARE URGED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA
CAUTION DUE TO HEAVY BOATING TRAFFIC TODAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 011048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND
PATCHY FOG ELSEHWERE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BKN
CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE
SCT CONVECTION RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC TO
BE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 011048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND
PATCHY FOG ELSEHWERE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BKN
CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE
SCT CONVECTION RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC TO
BE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY.
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT AGS...BUT STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOG
AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AT THE TAF SITES FROM 18Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
ATTM. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 011022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY.
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT AGS...BUT STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOG
AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AT THE TAF SITES FROM 18Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
ATTM. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SW.
THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN
RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES. SOME OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE GOOD...WITH ML CAPES
OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND TOTAL TOTALS THAT
APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD MENTION OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING.

WATERSPOUTS...THE FORMATION OF THE EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO THE LATE MORNING SEA
BREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WITHIN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AND A DECENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
IF CONFIDENCE RISES ENOUGH A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THE 7 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT
STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KGSP 010234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT A FEW STRATOCU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL POINT TO NOTHING WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SSW TO SW FLOW...PICKING UP WITH
MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO POSSIBLY KHKY...WHERE
CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY AT THESE
SITES...HAVE FEATURED IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT WILL HOLD ON TO MVFR AT
KHKY IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO
WSW WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL
SITES...WHILE NW WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON
AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM
KAVL TO KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT FOR MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS EXTREME NW NC THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL VORT LOBES PASSING ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEING QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PERMIT LINGERING
PIEDMONT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ONCE THE LINGERING OUTFLOWS
DISSIPATE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO
ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY. MINS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT
MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE
TOLERABLE. EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MON AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY RESIDUAL LATE EVENING CONVECTION WILL PASS WELL N OF
THE AIRFIELD WITH ANY DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVES. EXPECT MAINLY FEW
CU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY POINT TO NOTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SW
FLOW...PICKING UP WITH MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK
OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED AND GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE
IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT HOLD ON TO MVFR AT KHKY GIVEN THAT THE AFTN
PRECIPITATION MISSED THE AIRFIELD TO THE N AND MOST CONSENSUS LEANS
STRONGLY TO MVFR AT PRESENT. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WHILE NW
WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON AFTN. EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM KAVL TO
KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR
MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS EXTREME NW NC THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL VORT LOBES PASSING ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEING QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PERMIT LINGERING
PIEDMONT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ONCE THE LINGERING OUTFLOWS
DISSIPATE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO
ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY. MINS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT
MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE
TOLERABLE. EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MON AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY RESIDUAL LATE EVENING CONVECTION WILL PASS WELL N OF
THE AIRFIELD WITH ANY DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVES. EXPECT MAINLY FEW
CU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY POINT TO NOTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SW
FLOW...PICKING UP WITH MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK
OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED AND GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE
IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT HOLD ON TO MVFR AT KHKY GIVEN THAT THE AFTN
PRECIPITATION MISSED THE AIRFIELD TO THE N AND MOST CONSENSUS LEANS
STRONGLY TO MVFR AT PRESENT. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WHILE NW
WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON AFTN. EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM KAVL TO
KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR
MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KGSP 312113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN HAS FOCUSED
MAINLY ALONG TWO CONVERGENCE AXES...ONE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS AND ANOTHER IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT JUST SE OF KCLT.
CONTINUED SCATTERED TRIGGERING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM IN THE SW TO WSW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN BOOSTED IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY.
HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT UNDER ANY CELLS THAT FORM GIVEN THE FAIRLY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH STEERING FLOW
THAT ONLY TRAINING WOULD CAUSE ISSUES. ALSO...20 TO 30 KT OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING UP ON VAD WIND PROFILES TO THE W...AND SLIGHT
ORGANIZATION OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE
SEVERE TSTM RISK REMAINS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL IN THE LIMITED DCAPE AIR
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY
ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED...WITH THE
NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. UNDER
THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION
WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THROUGH MONDAY. A PASSING VORT
MAX THIS EVENING MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TN
BORDER PAST THE END OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY
OVERNIGHT.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SW EXPECT WITH
ANY BRIEF AND WEAK OUTFLOWS NEARBY. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
CROSSOVER TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY
MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AWAY FROM THE MTNS...BUT SCT CELLS WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL INTO EARLY EVENING...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD THREATEN KHKY IN THE SW TO WSW STEERING FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AWAY FROM ANY TSRA THROUGH EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE
GENERALLY UNLIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP IN FOG TOWARD
DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING LOWER CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311921
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED WELL
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR INLAND ZONES.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS LIKELY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME AN OTHERWISE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT UNDER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE APPEARS TO BE STEADILY
DECREASING. MODEL SOLUTIONS INSTEAD SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING
INLAND ACTIVITY WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET DUE TO ITS
NON-DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY
HIGHEST. WILL ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GEORGIA AREAS...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY END MENTION OF
RAIN EARLIER IF TRENDS DICTATE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE MARINE ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHRA FULLY DISSIPATED ACRS THE
AREA THIS AM...THOUGH SFC CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST AND DEWPOINTS
HOVER NEAR 70F ON LATEST OBS. WITH HEATING GETTING UNDERWAY THIS HAS
ALLOWED LOW STRATUS OR STRATOCU TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
MAY RESTRICT FURTHER HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR IS HINTED AT BY THE NAM AND RAP...BUT
THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING VERY POOR LAPSE RATES WHICH MAKE THIS
QUESTIONABLE PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. MESO GUIDANCE STILL
FOCUSES ON THE MTNS FOR INITIATION AROUND MIDDAY WITH ISOLD-SCTD
CELLS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTN. REVISED POPS AND SKY ON ACCOUNT
OF THESE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS...STILL KEEPING ISOLD WORDING IN THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO BACKED OFF THE THUNDER MENTION UNTIL AFTER NOON IN
MOST PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
MIDLEVEL CAP...LOW STRATOCU PERIODICALLY WILL FORM AN MVFR CIG OVER
THE FIELD THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT. SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY FEATURE ONLY BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MENTION OF
AFTERNOON TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
GREATLY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT
ALL SITES AS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND LIFT.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY
TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE FAVORED EARLIER FORECAST AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
DECREASING.  LIGHT FOG SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MIXING AND HEATING COMBINE TO
PROMOTE EROSION.  AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH
LED TO FURTHER POP INCREASES ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR WHILE LOWERING
POPS TO THE WEST.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VSBY DUE TO INITIAL SHRA
ACTIVITY.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH A 1HR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED SHRA INDUCED MVFR VISB.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
UNDER BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  SKIES WILL FEATURE BKN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  REMOVED PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE SC SITES AND KAVL.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR VISB AND OR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINE.  INITIALIZED ONLY KHKY WITH WX
MENTION AS LINE OF SHRA WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA ERODES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR
WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION
AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       LOW   53%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE FAVORED EARLIER FORECAST AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
DECREASING.  LIGHT FOG SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MIXING AND HEATING COMBINE TO
PROMOTE EROSION.  AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH
LED TO FURTHER POP INCREASES ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR WHILE LOWERING
POPS TO THE WEST.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VSBY DUE TO INITIAL SHRA
ACTIVITY.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH A 1HR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED SHRA INDUCED MVFR VISB.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
UNDER BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  SKIES WILL FEATURE BKN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  REMOVED PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE SC SITES AND KAVL.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR VISB AND OR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINE.  INITIALIZED ONLY KHKY WITH WX
MENTION AS LINE OF SHRA WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA ERODES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR
WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION
AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       LOW   53%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN CSRA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE CSRA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY IMPACT
AGS/DNL TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER TO REACH CENTRAL MIDLANDS
SITES.

CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...FORECASTING ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
TO SLOWLY RISE AND MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...











000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310740
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   66%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KGSP 310740
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   66%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC THIS MORNING.
LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPIATION RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR.  AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...EXPECTING A
WEAKENING TREND TO PREVAIL WITH DECREASING RAIN RATES LIKELY.  THAT
SAID...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THESE AFFECTED
ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN NEAR
DAYBREAK.  ALSO MADE QPF ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
RAIN RATES WHICH DID NOT REVEAL ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AS FORWARD
PROPAGATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING
RATES.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC THIS MORNING.
LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPIATION RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR.  AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...EXPECTING A
WEAKENING TREND TO PREVAIL WITH DECREASING RAIN RATES LIKELY.  THAT
SAID...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THESE AFFECTED
ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN NEAR
DAYBREAK.  ALSO MADE QPF ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
RAIN RATES WHICH DID NOT REVEAL ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AS FORWARD
PROPAGATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING
RATES.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING RATES.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING RATES.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310109
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
909 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK






000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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