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000
FXUS62 KCAE 301649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -7 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PLUS MORE HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT GENERAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -7 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PLUS MORE HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT GENERAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -7 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PLUS MORE HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT GENERAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -7 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PLUS MORE HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT GENERAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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000
FXUS62 KGSP 301623
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS EXTREME NE GA...MOVING AT 25 MPH. STRONG
MORNING INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE U80S
EAST OF THE MTNS. CAPES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RISEN TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...WITH DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE STORMS
EXITING NRN GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST...POSSIBLY YIELDING SVR WIND GUSTS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO THE LATEST TRENDS.

AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301623
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS EXTREME NE GA...MOVING AT 25 MPH. STRONG
MORNING INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE U80S
EAST OF THE MTNS. CAPES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RISEN TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...WITH DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE STORMS
EXITING NRN GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST...POSSIBLY YIELDING SVR WIND GUSTS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO THE LATEST TRENDS.

AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -6 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
LATE THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST PLUS HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -6 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
LATE THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST PLUS HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 301438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. PINNING DOWN CONVECTION TODAY IS QUITE TRICKY SEEING
THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY INCONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. MODIFYING
THE KCHS 12Z RAOB...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH CAPE QUITE MARGINAL AROUND 1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX OF -4
C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND -5.8 C/KM. GIVEN
THIS...COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...SUBTLE
MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...O-6 KM SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY
INLAND. COLLECTIVELY...THIS MAY ALLOW COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT POP
SCHEME IN TACT UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DIMINISH BY 06Z. A
MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL PUNCTUATION
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT
VCTS/CB MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS BY
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. PINNING DOWN CONVECTION TODAY IS QUITE TRICKY SEEING
THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY INCONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. MODIFYING
THE KCHS 12Z RAOB...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH CAPE QUITE MARGINAL AROUND 1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX OF -4
C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND -5.8 C/KM. GIVEN
THIS...COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...SUBTLE
MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...O-6 KM SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY
INLAND. COLLECTIVELY...THIS MAY ALLOW COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT POP
SCHEME IN TACT UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DIMINISH BY 06Z. A
MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL PUNCTUATION
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT
VCTS/CB MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS BY
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. PINNING DOWN CONVECTION TODAY IS QUITE TRICKY SEEING
THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY INCONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. MODIFYING
THE KCHS 12Z RAOB...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH CAPE QUITE MARGINAL AROUND 1500 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX OF -4
C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND -5.8 C/KM. GIVEN
THIS...COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...SUBTLE
MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...O-6 KM SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY
INLAND. COLLECTIVELY...THIS MAY ALLOW COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT POP
SCHEME IN TACT UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY DIMINISH BY 06Z. A
MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL PUNCTUATION
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT
VCTS/CB MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS BY
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301411
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301411
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301411
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301411
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A WEAKEN
TREND IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
RECENT SPC ANALYSIS INDICATED CIN VALUES REMAIN AROUND 100 J/KG WITH
CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND NE GA. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE U80S
TO L90S. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAY PEAK AROUND 30 KTS...WITH EHI VALUES AROUND .5. ALSO...TT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S WITH SWEAT GREATER THAN 400.
CAMS AND THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A SCENARIO OF A BROKEN BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN GA. ONCE THE LINE FORMS...STEERING FLOW
AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK MOTION TO THE
EAST. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
RANGE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE TRACKS EAST AND
ORGANIZES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN. I
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 301158
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301158
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 301158
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301158
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL PUNCTUATION
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT
VCTS/CB MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS BY
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL PUNCTUATION
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT
VCTS/CB MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS BY
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 301109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG MOVING OVER
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION WITH THIS
MORNING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN RAMP UP.
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT
KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND REACHING THE FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WARRANT A MENTION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UPVALLEY
FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 301007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...TIL 04Z. THIS MORNING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z
TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z MID
LEVEL CEILINGS/FOG NOT FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0940 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS.

0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 301007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...TIL 04Z. THIS MORNING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z
TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z MID
LEVEL CEILINGS/FOG NOT FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 301007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...TIL 04Z. THIS MORNING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z
TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z MID
LEVEL CEILINGS/FOG NOT FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300853
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300853
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300853
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300853
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CB OR ISOLATED
TSTMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CB OR ISOLATED
TSTMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CB OR ISOLATED
TSTMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CB OR ISOLATED
TSTMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300826
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ATLC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO EVEN REACH THE COAST LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
THE WEST OF I-95 IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCED 30 POPS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MANY FEATURES SUCH AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BUILDING PWATS TODAY. A BROAD REGION OF
IMPROVED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST TO NORTH GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR FORECAST REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS DIPPING A BIT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. WE DO NOT THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO GREAT
GIVEN FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS BUT WE MUST CONSIDER INCREASING
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED WIND FIELDS WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KT
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPES
ARE POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NEED TO FOLLOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PINNED MUCH OF THE DAY.

THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTION. THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE SB CAPES ACROSS SE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE
SWIFT STORM MOTIONS AND IMPROVED DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. WITH COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT
SOME POINT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
A MILDER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRODUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
MIX INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE ONLY PROGGED AROUND
1.5" IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 15-20 KT WSW 850 MB WINDS... THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. PWATS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SURFACE THETA-E AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT... WE
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS ON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN AND AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A TROUGH EXISTS WELL INLAND. WARMING MID LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHILE INCREASING
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CB OR ISOLATED
TSTMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PEAK 15-20 KT OR EVEN CLOSE TO 20 KT LOCALLY AT TIMES IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY
REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY MID WEEK...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASED OF THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED MY MODEST DRYING TONIGHT. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUPPORTING ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOISTEN...ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY. STEERING
FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THURS...THE TROF BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NE WHILE VARIOUS LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRI AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROF WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FROPA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LYR
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY LATE WED
AS THE LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SWLY. POPS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP
THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME LOW END LIKELY
VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN MTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA VALID THRU 12Z
THURS. THIS MAKES SENSE WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL PROFILES GENERATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME HEALTHY LOW LVL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
POTENT LOOKING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NC THURS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LVL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS WELL AS A STOUT 40 T0 50KT LOW LVL JET STREAK. THE MODELS KEEP
DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA WELL INTO FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 12Z FRI.
TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMO ON WED AND DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THURS
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND REMAINS THAT WAY THRU DAY 7. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE UPPER TROFS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...YET THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
COMPLEX LOOKING LOW OVER THE FCST AREA AND ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE. AS IT DOES MOVE WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT...ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOWS FORM IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND KEEP SOME DEGREE OF LEE
TROFFING OVER THE CWFA THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LVL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND/OR SW MOST OF THE TIME. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT THE
DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. TEMPS
START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON FRI AND WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...FAVORING GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. POPS AND QPF WERE
UPDATED BASED ON ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...CONVECTION TO THE WEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT TN VALLEY IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS SUCH...LATEST CAM
GUID ONCE AGAIN FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WITH THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY FALLING OFF ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  FURTHER SOUTH THE MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE BETTER MUCAPE...MAINLY OVER THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...CANT RULE OUT SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
SW NC BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY AND WAINS.  FOR THE
FCST...TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST GUID HOWEVER NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE.  OTHERWISE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/SKY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV...FAVORING GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. POPS AND QPF WERE
UPDATED BASED ON ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...CONVECTION TO THE WEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT TN VALLEY IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS SUCH...LATEST CAM
GUID ONCE AGAIN FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WITH THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY FALLING OFF ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  FURTHER SOUTH THE MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE BETTER MUCAPE...MAINLY OVER THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...CANT RULE OUT SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
SW NC BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY AND WAINS.  FOR THE
FCST...TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST GUID HOWEVER NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE.  OTHERWISE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/SKY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE BRINGS A LOW VFR CIG OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF KAVL...AND WILL LOSE STEAM ANYWAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GUIDANCE
MEMBER FAVOR A DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL...THE CONSENSUS DOES
NOT. LOW VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE OF GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY CHANNEL
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST LOW TEMPS ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL TEND TO
VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST LOW TEMPS ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL TEND TO
VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST LOW TEMPS ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL TEND TO
VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT
AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT
AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...CONVECTION TO THE WEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT TN VALLEY IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS SUCH...LATEST CAM
GUID ONCE AGAIN FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WITH THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY FALLING OFF ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  FURTHER SOUTH THE MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE BETTER MUCAPE...MAINLY OVER THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...CANT RULE OUT SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
SW NC BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY AND WAINS.  FOR THE
FCST...TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST GUID HOWEVER NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE.  OTHERWISE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/SKY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 300235
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...CONVECTION TO THE WEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT TN VALLEY IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS SUCH...LATEST CAM
GUID ONCE AGAIN FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WITH THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY FALLING OFF ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  FURTHER SOUTH THE MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE BETTER MUCAPE...MAINLY OVER THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...CANT RULE OUT SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
SW NC BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY AND WAINS.  FOR THE
FCST...TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST GUID HOWEVER NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE.  OTHERWISE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/SKY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SMOKIES AND THE NORTHERN MTNS...THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY.  PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ANY SURVIVING
SHRA/TSRA...THUS FEEL THE CONSENSUS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEMS MOST
LOGICAL.  THESE SOURCES FAVOR THE SMOKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GA.  THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREFORE KEPT A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM OF POPS ALONG THE TN
LINE...HOWEVER INCREASED THEM A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUESDAY.  INITIALIZED TAF
AMIDST LIGHT SW FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CU
COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING SPAWN LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE
MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AIDING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...INCREASE SKIES TO LOW VFR CU CIGS AROUND THE 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ENHANCED MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KAVL.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM SCATTERED MCS ACTIVITY OVER SE KY SLIDING THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY...AND INTO THE NC HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING
THE DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY...AND ALSO WITH THE BEST TRACK ONCE ANY
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.  PREFER THE RAP/HRRR CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OVER NE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SMOKIES.  THUS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WX MENTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES ARE
DRY THROUGH MORNING WITH NO RESTRICITIONS PROGGED.  AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...INTRODUCED PROB30S AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCE MIXED LAYER SW WINDS/GUSTS UNDER LOW
VFR CU CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
717 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. MUCH DRIER AIR THAN IN RECENT
DAYS IS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT
AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 292317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
717 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. MUCH DRIER AIR THAN IN RECENT
DAYS IS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT
AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 292018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD CU PERSISTS.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED.  MOST RECENT CAM GUID FAVORS THE CURRENT POP FCST WHICH
EMPHASIZES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS.  DID
TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT TRENDS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291958
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES/NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER EARLY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
OF VARYING THICKNESS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD IMPACT HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT SHOULD NOT ALTER EXPECTED LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A MODEST SURGE
OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN WINDS WILL
TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT/SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT/SPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291958
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES/NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER EARLY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
OF VARYING THICKNESS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD IMPACT HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT SHOULD NOT ALTER EXPECTED LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A MODEST SURGE
OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN WINDS WILL
TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT/SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT/SPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291958
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES/NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER EARLY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
OF VARYING THICKNESS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD IMPACT HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT SHOULD NOT ALTER EXPECTED LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A MODEST SURGE
OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN WINDS WILL
TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT/SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT/SPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291958
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES/NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER EARLY.
OTHERWISE...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
OF VARYING THICKNESS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD IMPACT HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT SHOULD NOT ALTER EXPECTED LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A MODEST SURGE
OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN WINDS WILL
TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ECT/SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT/SPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291834
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291834
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291834
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DRIVING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP. AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS THE NC
AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY REACH
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AT 2
PM...A LIGHT CLUSTER OF SHRA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GA/AL/TN STATE LINES. AT 2 PM...SPC CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED 100 TO
200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...WHICH AGREES QUITE
WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM. I EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE TO REACH THE TN BORDER...ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE NC RIDGES...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH CHC TO SCHC
POPS AFTER 20Z. SHRA/TSRA MAY TRACK SLOWLY EAST...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT...A
FEW SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE TN LINE...I WILL INDICATE SCHC
POPS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
WITHIN THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID LEVEL S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE S/W APPROACHES...DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID DAY. COVERAGE ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW MAY YIELD EAST BOUND STORMS AROUND 15 M/S. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID CHC
POPS EAST. SPC DY2 HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A
MARGINAL RISK...5 PERCENT CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY LATE THU AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CANADA WITH
AN ENSUING SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARRIVE DURING THE OPTIMUM
DIURNAL CYCLE TIME.

IN REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD CAN CERTAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY.
ALSO...THERE CERTAINLY ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL DETAILS.
THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
BRINGS THE LOWS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE MODEL BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS BY
LATE WED WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
VERY GENEROUS QPF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH NOT NEARLY THE
QPF AS THE NAM. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON ALSO
WITH THE EC AND SREF...SO WILL LEAN TOWEARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCT THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR
EARLY JULY AND CAPES INCREASING TO >1000J...SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS
ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THU COULD BE THE MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
POPS TO NUMEROUS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO EACH
DAY...EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ON THU WESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
ELEVATED EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH A BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND PLENTIFUL SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED WELL
ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING POPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL TREND OF
WANING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING A NORMAL JULY
DIURNAL PATTERN OF POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START NEAR AVERAGE AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN RISE TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE SURFACE. MUCH DRIER AIR THAN IN RECENT DAYS IS IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A CAP WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS OVER THE TERMINALS. A 20-KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT
FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE SURFACE. MUCH DRIER AIR THAN IN RECENT DAYS IS IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A CAP WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE FA WILL LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS IS DRIER AND
BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. IT ALSO PLACES THE SHORTWAVE SW OF THE FA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER STORMS AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
NAM LI VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO -7 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS
IS MORE MODEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTING A STORM STRUCTURE THAT IS MORE ORGANIZED
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CELLS. HI RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE
NAM...PRODUCING MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE FA THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WED AND THU...MID 90S FRI THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS OVER THE TERMINALS. A 20-KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED AT
FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LAST NIGHT AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPED INTO MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE EDGES INTO COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY LOW IN MOST AREAS...IN STARK CONTRAST WITH HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS...THE ASSOCIATED
N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WELL
SOUTH OF I-16 THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. EVEN SO...HIGHS
89-93F WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

EXPECT A MODEST S/SW SURGE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPED INTO MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE EDGES INTO COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY LOW IN MOST AREAS...IN STARK CONTRAST WITH HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS...THE ASSOCIATED
N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WELL
SOUTH OF I-16 THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. EVEN SO...HIGHS
89-93F WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

EXPECT A MODEST S/SW SURGE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPED INTO MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE EDGES INTO COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY LOW IN MOST AREAS...IN STARK CONTRAST WITH HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS...THE ASSOCIATED
N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WELL
SOUTH OF I-16 THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. EVEN SO...HIGHS
89-93F WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

EXPECT A MODEST S/SW SURGE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPED INTO MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE EDGES INTO COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY LOW IN MOST AREAS...IN STARK CONTRAST WITH HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS...THE ASSOCIATED
N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WELL
SOUTH OF I-16 THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. EVEN SO...HIGHS
89-93F WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

EXPECT A MODEST S/SW SURGE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES THAT THE EARLIER SHRA ACROSS
EASTERN TN HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST SPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
THE CWA REMAINS STABLE...WITH 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO SCHC TO CHC ALONG THE
TN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ALSO MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES THAT THE EARLIER SHRA ACROSS
EASTERN TN HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST SPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
THE CWA REMAINS STABLE...WITH 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO SCHC TO CHC ALONG THE
TN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ALSO MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES THAT THE EARLIER SHRA ACROSS
EASTERN TN HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST SPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
THE CWA REMAINS STABLE...WITH 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO SCHC TO CHC ALONG THE
TN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ALSO MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES THAT THE EARLIER SHRA ACROSS
EASTERN TN HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST SPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
THE CWA REMAINS STABLE...WITH 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO SCHC TO CHC ALONG THE
TN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ALSO MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED A BAND OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH A SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS
THE NC AND NRN SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW SHRA TO ISO TSRA MAY
REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET...WITH A LIGHT SW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGHER LLVL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR TSRAS. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHC DURING THE 18Z PACKAGE...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
PROB30. ELSEWHERE...TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
ADDITION...DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KAND TO KGSP BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291507
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291507
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CU OVER GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A FEW SHRAS ACROSS EASTERN
TN...TRACKING EAST. A FEW OF THE LEADING SHRAS HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND
APPEARS WELL TIMED...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER
DURING THE HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY.

AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291459
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS IN PLACE. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291459
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS IN PLACE. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AND BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A COLD FRONT PUSHED DRIER/MORE STABLE INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 89-93F RANGE... THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO THE
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...LATE MORNING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/70S WILL DROP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST
LOCALES INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRAST
WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED AT KCHS...A N/NW TO S/SE GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-16.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSAV
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TIP BACK S/SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT TODAY. EXPECT
A MODEST S/SW SURGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291315
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291315
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY FROM GENERALLY COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MINS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS.
RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE NC/SC STATE
LINE OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
DRAPED SW ACROSS THE SC/GA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEPARTING
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND TIMING AND
SPEED.

0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KCHS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AT KSAV...LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN
A BIT MORE STUBBORN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. IFR/MVFR UNTIL CLOSER
TO 14Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. VFR THEREAFTER.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 291110
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BY FROM SW THE THIS
MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM N
TO NE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN TO S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG RESTRICTIONS EITHER THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK
FOG RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM
THE SW WILL PASS OVER FOOTHILLS SITES THIS MORNING. LOW VFR CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL START TO ARRIVE
TODAY...BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY REACH ASHEVILLE...BUT BY
THE TIME IT DOES SO THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE WANED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDER. IN ANY EVENT...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VEER FORM THE N AND NE THIS MORNING
TO SE AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
AT OGB/AGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY
12Z...FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
AT OGB/AGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY
12Z...FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
AT OGB/AGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY
12Z...FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0830 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO ACCOUNT FOR A THIN STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290813
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
413 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS ENVELOPED THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONGEALED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH ADVECTS IN. VFR AFTER MID MORNING THOUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290813
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
413 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CSRA AND SE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COAST
AND THE LAND BREEZE KICKS IN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAD EXPANDED IN
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD STILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEARING DAWN WITH MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THEN. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AT 4 AM BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE W LATE.

TODAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN...STALLING AND DISSIPATING DEFINED
MAINLY BY A DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A SHIFT TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW THIS MORNING. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
AIR THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE COASTAL GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN
SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MUCH LOWER PWATS TODAY
ALONG WITH A SOLID SUBSIDENCE CAP WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION IN A SLOT OF WEAK JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE
OR PERHAPS JUST DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WE DID NOT ALTER HIGH TEMPS MUCH AS THEY LOOK FINE IN
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT WITH SW SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS REALLY ANCHORED OUT THERE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM SW TO NE. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH.
LESS MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS ENVELOPED THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONGEALED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH ADVECTS IN. VFR AFTER MID MORNING THOUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN NEAR SHORE WINDS OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLOW WILL TIP BACK SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EXPECT A MODEST SW SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT
TROUGH...MAINLY DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY MODULATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290708
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290708
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290708
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290708
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290605
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
OVERTAKING THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN
IN IN THE 70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER
TO EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290605
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
OVERTAKING THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN
IN IN THE 70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER
TO EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290605
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
OVERTAKING THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN
IN IN THE 70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER
TO EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290605
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
OVERTAKING THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN
IN IN THE 70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER
TO EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290605
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
OVERTAKING THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN
IN IN THE 70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER
TO EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RESIDING OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0510 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED PER INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES... BASED ON CONSISTENCY BETWEEN NEW MODEL DATA AND
THE LATEST FORECAST.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0510 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED PER INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES... BASED ON CONSISTENCY BETWEEN NEW MODEL DATA AND
THE LATEST FORECAST.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0510 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED PER INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES... BASED ON CONSISTENCY BETWEEN NEW MODEL DATA AND
THE LATEST FORECAST.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0510 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED PER INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES... BASED ON CONSISTENCY BETWEEN NEW MODEL DATA AND
THE LATEST FORECAST.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 290231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN NC...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL MAKING WAY FOR SOME NICE ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING.  TEMPERATURES
REGIONWIDE ARE COOLING NICELY INTO THE 60S/70S AMIDST CALMING WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS OPTED NOT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN IN IN THE
70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO
EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN IN IN THE
70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO
EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN IN IN THE
70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO
EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN IN IN THE
70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO
EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND COASTAL PLAIN IN IN THE
70S. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE REGION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO
EXTREME EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290134
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80
TO 1 INCH BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282322
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282322
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST. ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. DRIER
AIR HAS ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS...MAINLY AT
THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KGSP 282321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND
SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 282321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND
SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND
SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 282321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK TEMPS/DEWS AND
SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH FEW LOW VFR CU
AMIDST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL NC
SITES ASIDE FOR KCLT...WHERE BRIEF SW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY AROUND THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.  THE SC SITES REMAIN
SW...BUT WILL ALSO VEER NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS TOO DRY THANKS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS.  HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLUX AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS.  THUS...LOW/MID CU IS INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS UNDER SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282313
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282313
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282313
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282313
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS ENDED AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282221
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE PASSING BY BOTH TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. KCHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT SEE ANY
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KSAV WILL STILL HAVE STORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282221
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF
ALLENDALE/SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS THROUGH MID-EVENING TO SLOW A SLOW DECLINE
FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WILL
NEED TO HANG ONTO 20-40 PERCENT POPS AT THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE HUGGING THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE PASSING BY BOTH TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. KCHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT SEE ANY
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KSAV WILL STILL HAVE STORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282056
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT OGB 08Z-13Z GIVEN FORECAST OF CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282056
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE AREAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT OGB 08Z-13Z GIVEN FORECAST OF CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KGSP 282021
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AMONGST 30 DEGREE TD DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO YIELD A VERY
PLEASANT JUNE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOW TERRAIN WITH LOW/MID 70S OVER THE MTNS.  SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WX CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS.  THUS...THE
CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH LITTLE TO NO UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER. DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE MTN RIDGES NEAR THE TN BORDER. I WILL KEEP
THE TAFS LIMITED TO A MENTION OF FEW CIRRUS WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS...MARGINALLY GUSTY AT KAVL. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING CALM IN MANY PLACES
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING BY
MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD SIFT FROM THE SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LLVL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING A
MENTION OF FEW050 CU.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIRUNAL
THUDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281956
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. SO
FAR...ONLY THE STORM IN WESTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROMPT A WARNING. UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING TO GET
TOO STRONG AND LOFT REFLECTIVITY NEAR THE -20 C. THE AMBIENT SHEAR
THOUGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT AND THAT MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SEVERE THREAT A BIT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A FEW OF THE
STORM MAY EXHIBIT SOME INTERESTING STRUCTURE WITH SOME ROTATION.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH IN AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE FEED BEGINS TO SLIP OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ANY NOCTURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND RANGING
TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE PASSING BY BOTH TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. KCHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT SEE ANY
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KSAV WILL STILL HAVE STORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281956
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. SO
FAR...ONLY THE STORM IN WESTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROMPT A WARNING. UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING TO GET
TOO STRONG AND LOFT REFLECTIVITY NEAR THE -20 C. THE AMBIENT SHEAR
THOUGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT AND THAT MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SEVERE THREAT A BIT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A FEW OF THE
STORM MAY EXHIBIT SOME INTERESTING STRUCTURE WITH SOME ROTATION.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH IN AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE FEED BEGINS TO SLIP OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ANY NOCTURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND RANGING
TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE PASSING BY BOTH TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. KCHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT SEE ANY
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KSAV WILL STILL HAVE STORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281956
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. SO
FAR...ONLY THE STORM IN WESTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROMPT A WARNING. UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING TO GET
TOO STRONG AND LOFT REFLECTIVITY NEAR THE -20 C. THE AMBIENT SHEAR
THOUGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT AND THAT MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SEVERE THREAT A BIT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A FEW OF THE
STORM MAY EXHIBIT SOME INTERESTING STRUCTURE WITH SOME ROTATION.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH IN AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE FEED BEGINS TO SLIP OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ANY NOCTURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND RANGING
TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE PASSING BY BOTH TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. KCHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT SEE ANY
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KSAV WILL STILL HAVE STORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THOUGH THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO
15 KT OUT TO 20 NM AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ECT



000
FXUS62 KGSP 281842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH LITTLE TO NO UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER. DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE MTN RIDGES NEAR THE TN BORDER. I WILL KEEP
THE TAFS LIMITED TO A MENTION OF FEW CIRRUS WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS...MARGINALLY GUSTY AT KAVL. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING CALM IN MANY PLACES
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING BY
MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD SIFT FROM THE SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LLVL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING A
MENTION OF FEW050 CU.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIRUNAL
THUDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH LITTLE TO NO UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER. DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE MTN RIDGES NEAR THE TN BORDER. I WILL KEEP
THE TAFS LIMITED TO A MENTION OF FEW CIRRUS WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS...MARGINALLY GUSTY AT KAVL. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING CALM IN MANY PLACES
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING BY
MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD SIFT FROM THE SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LLVL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING A
MENTION OF FEW050 CU.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIRUNAL
THUDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 281842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WEEKEND COMES
TO AN END...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A MOISTER AIRMASS TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY
WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 30
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW CU ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WEAK LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH A 5 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT VALUES.
OVERALL...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE...BUT TOO LOW TO YIELD ANY
SBCAPE EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING THE NC
BORDER COUNTIES...THEN DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE IS THE EASTERN US 500MB TROUGH...WHICH MAKES A
SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE
TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  THIS REGIME PROVIDES LITTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDER SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF UP TO 40KTS
WILL PROVIDE SOME EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LI RETURNS TO UNSTABLE
TERRITORY TUESDAY EVENING...AT AROUND -2...OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND OVER ALL PARTS OF THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LI
TO -5.  PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
BITS OF MILD PVA WILL SUPPORT STORMS.  THIS LEADS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/FORCING ARE ALLOWED TO
PENETRATE...THOUGH EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL POPS WITH SOME CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE  MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THOUGH WEAK...LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT THAT SOME OF THE COVERAGE COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...AND THE MOST PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA HIGH AS THE UPPER PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISPLAY MIXED SIGNALS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OF POPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO APPEARS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH LITTLE TO NO UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER. DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE MTN RIDGES NEAR THE TN BORDER. I WILL KEEP
THE TAFS LIMITED TO A MENTION OF FEW CIRRUS WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS...MARGINALLY GUSTY AT KAVL. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING CALM IN MANY PLACES
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING BY
MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD SIFT FROM THE SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LLVL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING A
MENTION OF FEW050 CU.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH A AMPLIFYING L/W
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIRUNAL
THUDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MIDLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
PWAT BELOW ONE INCH...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT OGB 08Z-13Z GIVEN FORECAST OF CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MIDLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
PWAT BELOW ONE INCH...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA
AND WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN SITU. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A CAPPED SOUNDING ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY OVER THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH RISING TO NEAR NORMAL IN 90 TO 93 RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUNDING BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY MODULATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. POPS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING
TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
ON WEDNESDAY...MID 90S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT OGB 08Z-13Z GIVEN FORECAST OF CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE ONLY ADDITIONAL
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PLOTS ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS TYPE OF AMBIENT
WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN SOME INTERESTING STORM STRUCTURES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN DISCRETE
STORMS AS WELL AS SOME SHORT LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS VERY LOW HOWEVER THANKS TO HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF
MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE
DRYING...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO LOWER VALUES THAN THEY HAVE IN A WHILE...WHICH IS REALLY
ONLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BY THEN BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE 90-93F.

ON TUESDAY...THE IN-SITU HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY
WILL YIELD INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...WE EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP. THE GREATER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
IN SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGHER.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TERMINALS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
FIRST BE POSSIBLE AT KCHS. THE FORECAST FEATURES TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-20Z. THERE IS LESS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AROUND
KSAV...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA
CONDITIONS AT KSAV A LITTLE BIT LATER...IN THE 20-22Z TIME
PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A NOTCH BELOW SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS PRODUCING SHIFTING AND
GUSTING WINDS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OVER 35 KT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LAY DOWN EVEN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT NEARS.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL ENSUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THERE WILL BE SURGES ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. AT NIGHT THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS DUE TO NOCTURNAL JETTING THOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE ONLY ADDITIONAL
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PLOTS ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS TYPE OF AMBIENT
WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN SOME INTERESTING STORM STRUCTURES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN DISCRETE
STORMS AS WELL AS SOME SHORT LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS VERY LOW HOWEVER THANKS TO HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF
MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE
DRYING...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO LOWER VALUES THAN THEY HAVE IN A WHILE...WHICH IS REALLY
ONLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BY THEN BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE 90-93F.

ON TUESDAY...THE IN-SITU HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY
WILL YIELD INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...WE EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP. THE GREATER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
IN SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGHER.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TERMINALS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
FIRST BE POSSIBLE AT KCHS. THE FORECAST FEATURES TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-20Z. THERE IS LESS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AROUND
KSAV...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA
CONDITIONS AT KSAV A LITTLE BIT LATER...IN THE 20-22Z TIME
PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A NOTCH BELOW SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS PRODUCING SHIFTING AND
GUSTING WINDS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OVER 35 KT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LAY DOWN EVEN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT NEARS.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL ENSUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THERE WILL BE SURGES ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. AT NIGHT THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS DUE TO NOCTURNAL JETTING THOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE ONLY ADDITIONAL
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PLOTS ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS TYPE OF AMBIENT
WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN SOME INTERESTING STORM STRUCTURES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN DISCRETE
STORMS AS WELL AS SOME SHORT LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS VERY LOW HOWEVER THANKS TO HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF
MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE
DRYING...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO LOWER VALUES THAN THEY HAVE IN A WHILE...WHICH IS REALLY
ONLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BY THEN BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE 90-93F.

ON TUESDAY...THE IN-SITU HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY
WILL YIELD INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...WE EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP. THE GREATER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
IN SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGHER.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TERMINALS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
FIRST BE POSSIBLE AT KCHS. THE FORECAST FEATURES TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-20Z. THERE IS LESS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AROUND
KSAV...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA
CONDITIONS AT KSAV A LITTLE BIT LATER...IN THE 20-22Z TIME
PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A NOTCH BELOW SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS PRODUCING SHIFTING AND
GUSTING WINDS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OVER 35 KT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LAY DOWN EVEN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT NEARS.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL ENSUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THERE WILL BE SURGES ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. AT NIGHT THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS DUE TO NOCTURNAL JETTING THOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE ONLY ADDITIONAL
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PLOTS ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS TYPE OF AMBIENT
WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN SOME INTERESTING STORM STRUCTURES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN DISCRETE
STORMS AS WELL AS SOME SHORT LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS VERY LOW HOWEVER THANKS TO HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF
MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE
DRYING...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO LOWER VALUES THAN THEY HAVE IN A WHILE...WHICH IS REALLY
ONLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BY THEN BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE 90-93F.

ON TUESDAY...THE IN-SITU HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY
WILL YIELD INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...WE EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP. THE GREATER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
IN SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGHER.

A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TERMINALS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
FIRST BE POSSIBLE AT KCHS. THE FORECAST FEATURES TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-20Z. THERE IS LESS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AROUND
KSAV...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA
CONDITIONS AT KSAV A LITTLE BIT LATER...IN THE 20-22Z TIME
PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST WITH JUST A VFR CEILING FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A NOTCH BELOW SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS PRODUCING SHIFTING AND
GUSTING WINDS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OVER 35 KT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LAY DOWN EVEN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT NEARS.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL ENSUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THERE WILL BE SURGES ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. AT NIGHT THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS DUE TO NOCTURNAL JETTING THOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE ONLY ADDITIONAL
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PLOTS ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS TYPE OF AMBIENT
WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN