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000
FXUS62 KCAE 061527
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND KEEPING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE REGION WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS COOL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING MOST AFFECTED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE.  SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FAVOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AT OGB AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF
SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER SUNDAY...MAINLY
AT OGB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 061429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WAS DELAYING THE EXPECTED RATE OF WARMUP.
THIS IS NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR THE SKY COVER FORECAST...WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE TEMP TREND NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE
HIGH TEMP FCST JUST YET. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WAS DELAYING THE EXPECTED RATE OF WARMUP.
THIS IS NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR THE SKY COVER FORECAST...WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE TEMP TREND NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE
HIGH TEMP FCST JUST YET. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WAS DELAYING THE EXPECTED RATE OF WARMUP.
THIS IS NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR THE SKY COVER FORECAST...WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE TEMP TREND NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE
HIGH TEMP FCST JUST YET. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WAS DELAYING THE EXPECTED RATE OF WARMUP.
THIS IS NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR THE SKY COVER FORECAST...WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE TEMP TREND NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE
HIGH TEMP FCST JUST YET. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061429
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WAS DELAYING THE EXPECTED RATE OF WARMUP.
THIS IS NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR THE SKY COVER FORECAST...WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE TEMP TREND NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE
HIGH TEMP FCST JUST YET. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 061204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SUCH AS THAT DEPICTED ON THE NAM HAS ANY VALIDITY...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR MAYBE A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY YET BE
REQUIRED.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

LAKE WINDS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONE...PLUS COLD ADVECTION ATOP THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTRIE HAS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT AS CEILINGS LOWER TOWARD
LOW-END VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FURTHER
ENERGIZED...LEADING TO MODERATE OR PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURNS SOLID MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR WEATHER AT BOTH
SITES. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

NORTH/NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BACKING SOME
20-40 DEGREES TONIGHT AS SPEEDS INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE ATLANTIC. GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KSAV
AND CLOSE TO 30 KT AT KCHS LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ON THE SC WATERS...AND 20-25 KT AND
GUSTY ON THE GA WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER ALL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE GA WATERS...AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS WILL JOIN THEM LATE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW WE HAVE CHARLESTON HARBOR JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4-6
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS...WITH 1-2 FT
WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
STRETCH OF THE COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS
OF THE SC COAST EARLY THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SUCH AS THAT DEPICTED ON THE NAM HAS ANY VALIDITY...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR MAYBE A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY YET BE
REQUIRED.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

LAKE WINDS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONE...PLUS COLD ADVECTION ATOP THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTRIE HAS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT AS CEILINGS LOWER TOWARD
LOW-END VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FURTHER
ENERGIZED...LEADING TO MODERATE OR PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURNS SOLID MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR WEATHER AT BOTH
SITES. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

NORTH/NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BACKING SOME
20-40 DEGREES TONIGHT AS SPEEDS INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE ATLANTIC. GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KSAV
AND CLOSE TO 30 KT AT KCHS LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ON THE SC WATERS...AND 20-25 KT AND
GUSTY ON THE GA WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER ALL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE GA WATERS...AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS WILL JOIN THEM LATE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW WE HAVE CHARLESTON HARBOR JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4-6
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS...WITH 1-2 FT
WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
STRETCH OF THE COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS
OF THE SC COAST EARLY THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SUCH AS THAT DEPICTED ON THE NAM HAS ANY VALIDITY...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR MAYBE A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY YET BE
REQUIRED.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

LAKE WINDS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONE...PLUS COLD ADVECTION ATOP THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTRIE HAS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT AS CEILINGS LOWER TOWARD
LOW-END VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FURTHER
ENERGIZED...LEADING TO MODERATE OR PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURNS SOLID MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR WEATHER AT BOTH
SITES. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

NORTH/NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BACKING SOME
20-40 DEGREES TONIGHT AS SPEEDS INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE ATLANTIC. GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KSAV
AND CLOSE TO 30 KT AT KCHS LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ON THE SC WATERS...AND 20-25 KT AND
GUSTY ON THE GA WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER ALL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE GA WATERS...AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS WILL JOIN THEM LATE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW WE HAVE CHARLESTON HARBOR JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4-6
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS...WITH 1-2 FT
WAVES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
STRETCH OF THE COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS
OF THE SC COAST EARLY THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061123
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 061123
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061123
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061123
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061123
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH
SOME MID CLOUD MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-85 TAF SITES. THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGE...DID NOT FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
KEPT PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KCLT FOR NOW. N TO NE WIND
CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 061102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING
OFF QUITE COOL AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ALREADY...AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND KEEPING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE REGION WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS COOL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING MOST AFFECTED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE
SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT OGB AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER SUNDAY...MAINLY
AT OGB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 061102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING
OFF QUITE COOL AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ALREADY...AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND KEEPING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE REGION WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS COOL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING MOST AFFECTED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE
SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT OGB AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER SUNDAY...MAINLY
AT OGB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 061102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING
OFF QUITE COOL AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ALREADY...AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND KEEPING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE REGION WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS COOL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING MOST AFFECTED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE
SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT OGB AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER SUNDAY...MAINLY
AT OGB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
529 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE/RE OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS IN
MOST PLACES STILL TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND
FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BUT SOME 10F WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR MOST OF US IT/LL BE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
MOVE ASHORE OF COASTAL SE GA...WHILE THIN CIRRUS STARTS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SUCH AS THAT DEPICTED ON THE NAM HAS ANY VALIDITY...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR MAYBE A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY YET BE
REQUIRED.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

LAKE WINDS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONE...PLUS COLD ADVECTION ATOP THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTRIE HAS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND/OR
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE RAISING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. INITIALLY WE HAVE AN ONGOING ADVISORY FOR
AMZ374...WITH AMZ354 TO START AT 1 PM AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS
AT 5 PM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE SC
COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS OF THE SCA COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
529 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE/RE OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS IN
MOST PLACES STILL TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND
FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BUT SOME 10F WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR MOST OF US IT/LL BE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
MOVE ASHORE OF COASTAL SE GA...WHILE THIN CIRRUS STARTS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SUCH AS THAT DEPICTED ON THE NAM HAS ANY VALIDITY...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR MAYBE A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING MAY YET BE
REQUIRED.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

LAKE WINDS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONE...PLUS COLD ADVECTION ATOP THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTRIE HAS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND/OR
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE RAISING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. INITIALLY WE HAVE AN ONGOING ADVISORY FOR
AMZ374...WITH AMZ354 TO START AT 1 PM AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS
AT 5 PM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE SC
COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS OF THE SCA COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061016
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
516 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE/RE OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS IN
MOST PLACES STILL TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND
FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BUT SOME 10F WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR MOST OF US IT/LL BE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
MOVE ASHORE OF COASTAL SE GA...WHILE THIN CIRRUS STARTS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE CONSIDERABLE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WITH RAINS ONGOING WITH THE HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND/OR
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE RAISING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. INITIALLY WE HAVE AN ONGOING ADVISORY FOR
AMZ374...WITH AMZ354 TO START AT 1 PM AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS
AT 5 PM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE SC
COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS OF THE SCA COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
431 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE/RE OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS IN
MOST PLACES STILL TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND
FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BUT SOME 10F WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR MOST OF US IT/LL BE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
MOVE ASHORE OF COASTAL SE GA...WHILE THIN CIRRUS STARTS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WE FIND AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LATITUDE AND
DEEPENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS 500 MB HEIGHTS
DOWN TO SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE THAT STARTS OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY TAKES ON
NEUTRAL OR EVEN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE NAM WHICH HAS ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN OUR CWFA WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND NEGATIVE EPV...THE
RESULT OF THE LOW MUCH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO US THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS OUR FORECAST IS GEARED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC
FORECAST AND A BLEND OF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH PROVIDES US
WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST TODAY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A 1031 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH ELONGATES AND SPLIT INTO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MESO CENTERS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO
SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING FIRST IN THE FORMATION AND/OR
ADVECTION OF MARITIME-INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THAT ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE WEST/SW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER. EVENTUALLY JET DYNAMICS GET INVOLVED
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KT UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN TO OCCUR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDINESS INCREASES WILL AID IN
HOW WARM WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE TODAY. BUT LOWER 50S LOOKS TO BE
THE MAX AT BEST...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S AT THE SHORELINE AND
PERHAPS EVEN CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN QUICKEST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND IT/S TREND
TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE POTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
CONCERT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND LIFTS NORTH/NE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOCAL
COAST. IN RESPONSE THERE IS A RAPID ONSET OF RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE. AN
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95...WITH GRADUATED COVERAGE FURTHER
WEST WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND. QPF LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1/10 INCH FAR INTERIOR SE GA TO AS MUCH AS 2/3 OR 3/4 INCHES
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DISTRICT. WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION GIVEN THE
POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONCERN IN
REGARDS TO WINTER-TYPE PRECIP. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE ALOFT WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION. AND THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS DOWN TO AROUND 850 MB...SUPPORTING A MIX OR POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 AM. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FORECAST SITUATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE ATLANTIC LOW...WE HAVEN/T STRAYED TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UTILIZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE LESS
THAN 35F IS WHERE WE HAVE SHOWN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW THAT
EITHER MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER FROM THE ONGOING RAINS. THIS IS
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO GOOSE CREEK...WALTERBORO
AND HARDEEVILLE IN SC. AND WEST OF A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
RINCON TO HINESVILLE AND LUDOWICI. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SMALL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE IN THE SC COUNTIES WHERE THE
CHANGEOVER OR MIXTURE OCCURS. BUT EVEN HERE THOSE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT BEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

THE COLDER AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING NW AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S ON THE SHORE...WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS ARE DOWN IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FALLS
SQUARELY ON THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. FIRST...LETS JUST GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND SAY THAT THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ARE...AT
THIS TIME...CONSIDERED TO BE DISTINCT OUTLIERS. THERE IS ALMOST NO
SUPPORT FOR THESE SOLUTIONS FROM OTHER GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. THE
NAM IS QUITE INTERESTING THOUGH AS THE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
IT PORTRAYS ARE OFF THE CHARTS IMPRESSIVE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE REGIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER FEATURES A LOW
TRACK THAT IS ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE BEST
DYNAMICS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OFF
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PUSH TO THE EAST SUCH THAT BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY EASTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. EVEN WITH THE FAVORED FURTHER EAST
TRACK...A CHANGEOVER OR TRANSITION TO WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT CURRENT
THINKING STILL FAVORS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS ON AN ISLAND AND CONSIDERED
AN OUTLIER...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE HOW THE CONSENSUS SHIFTS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE YET TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEEP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALOFT
COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK COOL AND DRY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODIFYING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES THE NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...BUT STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND/OR
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE RAISING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. INITIALLY WE HAVE AN ONGOING ADVISORY FOR
AMZ374...WITH AMZ354 TO START AT 1 PM AND THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS
AT 5 PM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FOR BOTH
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...AND LIKELY THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING LATER TODAY AS WINDS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 KT. THE
GALES CERTAINLY COULD SPREAD INTO THE OTHER WATERS...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THESE WATERS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE ON WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
START OFF VERY POOR SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WILL OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE OFFSHORE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST...GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEED
TO BE EXPANDED. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL SOON BE UPON US AND DEPARTURES ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED ALONG THE SC
COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ALONG PARTS OF THE SCA COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING
OFF QUITE COOL AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ALREADY...AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND KEEPING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE REGION WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS COOL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING MOST AFFECTED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
IN PLACE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL FAVOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AT OGB AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THIS EVENING. JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE IS THE PREMISE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT NT/SUNDAY
MORNING...FAVORING OGB.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060851
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...BUT THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060851
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...BUT THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 060851
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...BUT THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060624
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
IN PLACE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL FAVOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AT OGB AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THIS EVENING. JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE IS THE PREMISE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT NT/SUNDAY
MORNING...FAVORING OGB.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060624
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
IN PLACE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL FAVOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AT OGB AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THIS EVENING. JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE IS THE PREMISE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT NT/SUNDAY
MORNING...FAVORING OGB.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 060624
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
IN PLACE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS...PRECLUDING FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DIVE INTO THE SE CONUS TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LIFT AND DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GULF STREAM ALLOWS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL FAVOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AT OGB AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THIS EVENING. JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE IS THE PREMISE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY AT OGB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT IF SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SAT NT/SUNDAY
MORNING...FAVORING OGB.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060556
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE COASTAL GA AND TO
OPEN A LITTLE GREATER RANGE FROM NW TIER TO THE COAST IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS. ON AVERAGE LOOKING FOR 29-33 MOST INLAND
COMMUNITIES...36-40 ALONG THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY
ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060556
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE COASTAL GA AND TO
OPEN A LITTLE GREATER RANGE FROM NW TIER TO THE COAST IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS. ON AVERAGE LOOKING FOR 29-33 MOST INLAND
COMMUNITIES...36-40 ALONG THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY
ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060556
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE COASTAL GA AND TO
OPEN A LITTLE GREATER RANGE FROM NW TIER TO THE COAST IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS. ON AVERAGE LOOKING FOR 29-33 MOST INLAND
COMMUNITIES...36-40 ALONG THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY
ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060556
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE COASTAL GA AND TO
OPEN A LITTLE GREATER RANGE FROM NW TIER TO THE COAST IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS. ON AVERAGE LOOKING FOR 29-33 MOST INLAND
COMMUNITIES...36-40 ALONG THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY
ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060556
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE COASTAL GA AND TO
OPEN A LITTLE GREATER RANGE FROM NW TIER TO THE COAST IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS. ON AVERAGE LOOKING FOR 29-33 MOST INLAND
COMMUNITIES...36-40 ALONG THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS THEY ARRIVE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. LIGHT RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ENERGY
ALOFT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF LATE EVENING...TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST LOCALES INLAND. NO
MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC WILL PREVAIL WITH PRETTY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT LEADING
TO TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING AROUND
COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS62 KGSP 060247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...SLACKENING WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CIRRUS THUS FAR
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
FORECAST. WILL THUS LOWER MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH
CLOUDS EAST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060032
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC. PRETTY
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING
AROUND COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN, THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060032
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC. PRETTY
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING
AROUND COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN, THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060032
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC. PRETTY
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING
AROUND COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN, THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060032
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC. PRETTY
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING
AROUND COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN, THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060032
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC. PRETTY
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 INLAND...NEAR FREEZING
AROUND COASTAL METRO AREAS AND UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. VERY SMALL RISK OF CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN, THEY
WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM. SEAS WILL
BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS STILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG. BOTH RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 052138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE AND
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
EXPECT JUST THIN UPPER CLOUDINESS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS
MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN
INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A
LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO -25C TO -29 C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 OF AN INCH AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT P-TYPE TABLES
PLUS METEOGRAMS INDICATE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE CLT BUFKIT
SOUNDING WAS INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 052100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....THEN WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
THEN...A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND. ALONG THE COAST THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BACKING UP IN TIME...SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
COASTAL COUNTIES...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A CHILLY AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MEAGER
TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES 55-60F SHOULD
BE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR AT KCHS AND SAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS ARE RESPONDING BY TRENDING DOWNWARD. BUOYS
41004 AND 41008 ARE SHOWING SEAS OF 6 AND 3 FT RESPECTIVELY.
LOWERED OUR SEAS FORECAST ABOUT A FOOT BEYOND 10 NM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS. AS A RESULT, DROPPED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITHIN 20 NM. THE ADVISORY
REMAINS UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE EVENING. THEN,
THEY WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-20 KT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO
FORM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR AMZ374 SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THERE EXISTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
GALES TO SPREAD INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051948
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...WIND HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
SEASONALLY COOL.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...IN SPITE OF THE APPROACH OF A
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND ITS ARRIVAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT
WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EVEN WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...OWING TO
THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ENCROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR
SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE COMPLETELY CUTOFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY THIS FAR INLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AS INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH/MID CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT, THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF TODAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS EVERYTHING
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FULL SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
BARELY GETTING INTO THE 50S. NW TO NORTH WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
EASING...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US BY 3 OR 4 PM.

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR AT KCHS AND SAV. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE GRADUALLY EASING AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CHARLESTON WATERS, BUT KEPT THE REST OF THE ADVISORIES GOING
INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WATERS FROM
THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WILL BE UP LONGER.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051818
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1044 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT TROUGH ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME BONE DRY...A FAR CRY FROM
YESTERDAY WHEN PWATS WERE SOME 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WHILE TODAY THEY`LL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
WE`RE LOOKING AT FULL SUNSHINE AS A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS OUR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 1C
SOUTH TO MINUS 3C NORTH WE ARE FORECASTING NOTHING MORE THAN NEAR
50 FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A LOT OF
RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS A GOOD PART OF THE SUN`S ENERGY WILL BE
SPENT EVAPORATING THE STANDING WATER THAT PERSISTS. THUS, WE
MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY NW AND NORTH
WINDS THAT AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. NOT
QUITE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US
BY 3 OR 4 PM.

LAKE WINDS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BECAUSE
WIND GUSTS HAVE EASED WELL BELOW 25 KT (29 MPH).

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR AT KCHS AND SAV. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALL OF THE WATERS WITHIN 20 NM WATERS FROM
THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. BUOY 41008 IS BARELY
REPORTING GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THAT WOULD INTERPOLATE
TO GUSTS UNDER 20 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. AS A RESULT,
DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THAT AREA AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST AND 8-10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A BETTER
FETCH WILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF AND PRESSURE RISES SLOW. THE ADVISORIES SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING WITHIN 20 NM AND MUCH LONGER FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051404
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS USHERING IN A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVING NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051404
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS USHERING IN A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVING NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051141
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
641 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT TROUGH ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME BONE DRY...A FAR CRY FROM
YESTERDAY WHEN PWATS WERE SOME 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WHILE TODAY THEY/LL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WE/RE
LOOKING AT FULL SUNSHINE AS A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS OUR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 1C SOUTH TO
MINUS 3C NORTH WE ARE FORECASTING NOTHING MORE THAN NEAR 50 FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A LOT OF RAIN
THE PAST TWO DAYS A GOOD PART OF THE SUN/S ENERGY WILL BE SPENT
EVAPORATING THE STANDING WATER THAT PERSISTS. THUS WE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY NW AND NORTH
WINDS THAT AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. NOT
QUITE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US
BY 3 OR 4 PM.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES CONTINUES AND COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONSTANT ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF
A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 1 MB/HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN WAKE OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE A GALE WARNING ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF OUR 0-20 NM WATERS FROM
THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. NW AND NORTH WINDS WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT THIS MORNING ON ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY GREATER THEN 30 KT FOR AMZ330-350-352-354...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ACROSS AMZ374. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN UNDER PREDICTING THE HEIGHT OF THE SEAS...AND HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS RESULTS IN 4-7 FOOT SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
OF THE COAST AND 8-10 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE A BETTER
FETCH WILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME...COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF AN PRESSURE RISES SLOW. THE ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH DAYS END...AND ONCE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE SPEEDS ON
AMZ374 THIS AFTERNOON IT/LL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A LONG DURATION
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. DEFINITELY ENOUGH FOR AN SCA ON THE OUTER
GA WATERS...BUT PERHAPS ALSO ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH BUILDING OF SEAS IS ABLE TO OCCUR.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051141
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
641 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT TROUGH ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME BONE DRY...A FAR CRY FROM
YESTERDAY WHEN PWATS WERE SOME 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WHILE TODAY THEY/LL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WE/RE
LOOKING AT FULL SUNSHINE AS A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS OUR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 1C SOUTH TO
MINUS 3C NORTH WE ARE FORECASTING NOTHING MORE THAN NEAR 50 FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A LOT OF RAIN
THE PAST TWO DAYS A GOOD PART OF THE SUN/S ENERGY WILL BE SPENT
EVAPORATING THE STANDING WATER THAT PERSISTS. THUS WE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY NW AND NORTH
WINDS THAT AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. NOT
QUITE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US
BY 3 OR 4 PM.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES CONTINUES AND COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONSTANT ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF
A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 1 MB/HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN WAKE OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE A GALE WARNING ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF OUR 0-20 NM WATERS FROM
THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. NW AND NORTH WINDS WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT THIS MORNING ON ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY GREATER THEN 30 KT FOR AMZ330-350-352-354...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ACROSS AMZ374. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN UNDER PREDICTING THE HEIGHT OF THE SEAS...AND HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS RESULTS IN 4-7 FOOT SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
OF THE COAST AND 8-10 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE A BETTER
FETCH WILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME...COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF AN PRESSURE RISES SLOW. THE ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH DAYS END...AND ONCE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE SPEEDS ON
AMZ374 THIS AFTERNOON IT/LL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A LONG DURATION
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. DEFINITELY ENOUGH FOR AN SCA ON THE OUTER
GA WATERS...BUT PERHAPS ALSO ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH BUILDING OF SEAS IS ABLE TO OCCUR.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051141
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
641 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT TROUGH ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME BONE DRY...A FAR CRY FROM
YESTERDAY WHEN PWATS WERE SOME 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WHILE TODAY THEY/LL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WE/RE
LOOKING AT FULL SUNSHINE AS A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS OUR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 1C SOUTH TO
MINUS 3C NORTH WE ARE FORECASTING NOTHING MORE THAN NEAR 50 FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A LOT OF RAIN
THE PAST TWO DAYS A GOOD PART OF THE SUN/S ENERGY WILL BE SPENT
EVAPORATING THE STANDING WATER THAT PERSISTS. THUS WE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY NW AND NORTH
WINDS THAT AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. NOT
QUITE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US
BY 3 OR 4 PM.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES CONTINUES AND COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONSTANT ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF
A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 1 MB/HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN WAKE OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE A GALE WARNING ON THE
OUTER GA WATERS...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF OUR 0-20 NM WATERS FROM
THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. NW AND NORTH WINDS WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT THIS MORNING ON ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY GREATER THEN 30 KT FOR AMZ330-350-352-354...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ACROSS AMZ374. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN UNDER PREDICTING THE HEIGHT OF THE SEAS...AND HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS RESULTS IN 4-7 FOOT SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
OF THE COAST AND 8-10 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE A BETTER
FETCH WILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME...COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF AN PRESSURE RISES SLOW. THE ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH DAYS END...AND ONCE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE SPEEDS ON
AMZ374 THIS AFTERNOON IT/LL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A LONG DURATION
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. DEFINITELY ENOUGH FOR AN SCA ON THE OUTER
GA WATERS...BUT PERHAPS ALSO ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH BUILDING OF SEAS IS ABLE TO OCCUR.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAWN.  A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION NOW OCCURRING.  TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SUNRISE.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE UPSTATE AND FAR NORTHWEST
MIDLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ALL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID
RAIN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.10 INCHES.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.  STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLNATIC COAST.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE FA.
EARLIER WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAWN.  A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION NOW OCCURRING.  TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SUNRISE.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE UPSTATE AND FAR NORTHWEST
MIDLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ALL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID
RAIN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.10 INCHES.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.  STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLNATIC COAST.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE FA.
EARLIER WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAWN.  A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION NOW OCCURRING.  TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SUNRISE.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE UPSTATE AND FAR NORTHWEST
MIDLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ALL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID
RAIN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.10 INCHES.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.  STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLNATIC COAST.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE FA.
EARLIER WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050923
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
423 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAWN.  A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION NOW OCCURRING.  TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SUNRISE.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO THE UPSTATE AND FAR NORTHWEST
MIDLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ALL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID
RAIN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE MARION THROUGH 10AM.

CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.10 INCHES.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.  STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF THE LOW DEVELOPS A
BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE.  THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE
STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS 500MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C.  ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -7C TO -9C BY TUESDAY MORNING.  UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND THE
LACK OF MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY NE. SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE S FORECAST AREA (FA). WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO NNW AND INCREASED BEHIND IT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL AND SOME PERIODS OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN AT CAE/CUB...AND POSSIBLY OGB...AND POINTS TO THE
N AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...DCM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050900
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AND DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE NC COAST AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
DISTRICT. THIS POTENT FEATURE ALOFT DOESN/T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...BUT THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE PROXIMITY TO A
SURFACE POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IN SC COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES
IN BERKELEY AND MAYBE FAR NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY. AS THE
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN THERE IS A VERY LOW END RISK OF A
COUPLE OF FLURRIES AND/OR A LITTLE SLEET IN BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT
NOTHING APPRECIABLE...EVEN IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.

FOR TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES BONE DRY...A FAR CRY FROM YESTERDAY WHEN PWATS WERE SOME 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE TODAY THEY/LL BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
OVER THE SC COUNTIES DISSOLVES...WE/RE LEFT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AS
A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
DESPITE THIS OUR TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 1C SOUTH TO MINUS 3C NORTH WE ARE
FORECASTING NOTHING MORE THAN NEAR 50 FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A LOT OF RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS A GOOD
PART OF THE SUN/S ENERGY WILL BE SPENT EVAPORATING THE STANDING
WATER THAT PERSISTS. THUS WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY NW AND NORTH
WINDS THAT AVERAGE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. NOT
QUITE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST OF US
AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES GETS UNDERWAY AND COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SITS ATOP THE AREA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES SW TO NE OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO NEAR OR AT CALM
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL.
ALONG THE COAST THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH
A NORTH/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND THIS MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A SHARP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 120 KT 300 MB JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND DIVERGENCE
IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST
OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAINS/SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE POP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY TIGHT...AND THE
AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RAINFALL IS THE REGION FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY TO COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY. POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK THE
SIZE OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SEE RAINFALL. THE LAST THING TO MENTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. MODELS SHOW COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LOW...AND THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL
COULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEN INTO MONDAY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A
MOSTLY DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP HAS SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER STEADY STATE AND COOL. THE
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN
GET REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS BY ABOUT
THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALSO...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS FROM 09-13Z IN RESPONSE TO A
NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONSTANT ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF
A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 1 MB/HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN WAKE OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF
OUR 0-20 NM WATERS FROM THE SANTEE RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH LARGE PRESSURE RISES IN COMBINATION WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WE STILL MIGHT NEED TO HOIST A SHORT
DURATION GALE WARNING ON SOME OF THESE WATERS. OTHERWISE FOR NOW
THE ONLY GALE WARNING IS VALID ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE THE
BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR OF THE COLDER AIR ATOP THE WARMER WATERS.
NW AND NORTH WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT THIS MORNING ON
ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY GREATER THEN 30 KT
AMZ330-350-352-354...BUT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ACROSS AMZ374.
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDER PREDICTING THE HEIGHT OF THE
SEAS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THIS RESULTS IN 4-7 FOOT
SEAS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND 8-11 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS
WHERE A BETTER FETCH WILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SOME...COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF AN PRESSURE RISES SLOW. THE
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYS END...AND ONCE WINDS FALL
BELOW GALE FORCE SPEEDS ON AMZ374 THIS AFTERNOON IT/LL NEED TO BE
REPLACED BY A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY ON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES AND THERE IS A FURTHER
RELAXATION TO THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM
NEARBY. NORTH WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NE AND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. DEFINITELY ENOUGH FOR AN SCA ON THE OUTER
GA WATERS...BUT PERHAPS ALSO ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH BUILDING OF SEAS IS ABLE TO OCCUR.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A NARROW TIME WINDOW WHERE GALES COULD OCCUR OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM...RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE ATTM AHEAD OF A QUICKLY
MOVING STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS IS QUITE EXTRAORDINARY...AND SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS...AS SURFACE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 40S...AND SNOW IS STILL
FALLING. EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIP AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS ON ROADWAYS AND
ONLY A DUSTING IN GRASSY AREAS AT BEST. SKIES SHUD CLEAR QUICKLY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AS WELL. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY...WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY NLY WINDS AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU
DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECT SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. SKIES CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST AND AND ATMOS DRIES OUT. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTY NLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050606
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OUR LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPS ARE STEADILY FALLING AS WINDS ARE CRANKING
UP WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND JUST OFF THE NC COAST
AND LIFTING NE. NO CONCERNS FOR ANY BLACK ICE...BUT TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH WHERE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER AND
SKIES WILL BECOME OR ARE ALREADY CLEAR. UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY.

LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE NEAR A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE BACK INTO OUR NORTH/NW ZONES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WE
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
LATE. THERE ARE CONTINUED INDICATIONS FROM SOUNDINGS THAT A
LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET MAY YET OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALLENDALE
TO WALTERBORO... SUMMERVILLE AND JAMESTOWN. BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE IS NO IMPACTS SHOULD IT SOMEHOW BE
ABLE TO MATERIALIZE.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL START AT 4 AM FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES GETS UNDERWAY AND
COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS FROM 09-13Z IN RESPONSE TO A
NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MID MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE BEGIN WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL 0-20 NM
WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A GALE WARNING ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS. NW WINDS WILL REACH 20-30 KT MOST WATERS...BUT 30-40 KT ON
THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. GIVEN
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WE
STILL MIGHT REQUIRE A GALE WARNING ON OTHER WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050606
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OUR LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPS ARE STEADILY FALLING AS WINDS ARE CRANKING
UP WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND JUST OFF THE NC COAST
AND LIFTING NE. NO CONCERNS FOR ANY BLACK ICE...BUT TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH WHERE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER AND
SKIES WILL BECOME OR ARE ALREADY CLEAR. UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY.

LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE NEAR A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE BACK INTO OUR NORTH/NW ZONES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WE
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
LATE. THERE ARE CONTINUED INDICATIONS FROM SOUNDINGS THAT A
LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET MAY YET OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALLENDALE
TO WALTERBORO... SUMMERVILLE AND JAMESTOWN. BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE IS NO IMPACTS SHOULD IT SOMEHOW BE
ABLE TO MATERIALIZE.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL START AT 4 AM FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES GETS UNDERWAY AND
COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS FROM 09-13Z IN RESPONSE TO A
NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MID MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE BEGIN WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL 0-20 NM
WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A GALE WARNING ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS. NW WINDS WILL REACH 20-30 KT MOST WATERS...BUT 30-40 KT ON
THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. GIVEN
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WE
STILL MIGHT REQUIRE A GALE WARNING ON OTHER WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050606
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OUR LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPS ARE STEADILY FALLING AS WINDS ARE CRANKING
UP WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND JUST OFF THE NC COAST
AND LIFTING NE. NO CONCERNS FOR ANY BLACK ICE...BUT TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH WHERE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER AND
SKIES WILL BECOME OR ARE ALREADY CLEAR. UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY.

LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE NEAR A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE BACK INTO OUR NORTH/NW ZONES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WE
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
LATE. THERE ARE CONTINUED INDICATIONS FROM SOUNDINGS THAT A
LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET MAY YET OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALLENDALE
TO WALTERBORO... SUMMERVILLE AND JAMESTOWN. BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE IS NO IMPACTS SHOULD IT SOMEHOW BE
ABLE TO MATERIALIZE.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL START AT 4 AM FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE AS LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES GETS UNDERWAY AND
COLD ADVECTION MIXES GREATLY OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND SAV WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS FROM 09-13Z IN RESPONSE TO A
NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT DURING THE MID MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE BEGIN WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL 0-20 NM
WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A GALE WARNING ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS. NW WINDS WILL REACH 20-30 KT MOST WATERS...BUT 30-40 KT ON
THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. GIVEN
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WE
STILL MIGHT REQUIRE A GALE WARNING ON OTHER WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050602
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE. SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA). WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO NNW WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDINESS MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WILL EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
SATELLITE LOOPS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST WRAP AROUND
CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING OUT. A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB/OGB AND POINTS TO THE N AND NE EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO RESTRICT SURFACE VISIBILITIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050602
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE. SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA). WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO NNW WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDINESS MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WILL EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
SATELLITE LOOPS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST WRAP AROUND
CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING OUT. A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB/OGB AND POINTS TO THE N AND NE EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO RESTRICT SURFACE VISIBILITIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050602
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE. SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA). WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO NNW WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDINESS MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WILL EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
SATELLITE LOOPS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST WRAP AROUND
CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING OUT. A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB/OGB AND POINTS TO THE N AND NE EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO RESTRICT SURFACE VISIBILITIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050546
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM...RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH LOW
WET BULBS...STILL EXPECT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. STILL...SHUD
NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS...GIVEN THE
TEMPS AND QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP. WILL GENERALLY STAY THE COURSE ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE CLT
METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER MOISTURE...AND
COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC
COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY NLY WINDS AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU
DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECT SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. SKIES CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST AND AND ATMOS DRIES OUT. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTY NLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       MED   62%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEGIN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS BY 05Z...THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY
AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEGIN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS BY 05Z...THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY
AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1036 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF LATE EVENING...MOST RAIN HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF CHARLESTON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE
AND UPPER FORCING ARE THE GREATEST. EVEN A VERY SMALL RISK OF A
FEW SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THIS DOES OCCUR WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND
THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE RISEN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS ALREADY AND SHOULD STAY
THERE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WRAP-AROUND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS TO KCHS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.
LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FEATURE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. THUS...WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING CHS HARBOR...WITH
GALES BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 5 FT ACROSS NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST EASTERN
PORTIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1036 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF LATE EVENING...MOST RAIN HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF CHARLESTON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE
AND UPPER FORCING ARE THE GREATEST. EVEN A VERY SMALL RISK OF A
FEW SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THIS DOES OCCUR WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND
THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE RISEN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS ALREADY AND SHOULD STAY
THERE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WRAP-AROUND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS TO KCHS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.
LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FEATURE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. THUS...WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING CHS HARBOR...WITH
GALES BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 5 FT ACROSS NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST EASTERN
PORTIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1036 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF LATE EVENING...MOST RAIN HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF CHARLESTON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE
AND UPPER FORCING ARE THE GREATEST. EVEN A VERY SMALL RISK OF A
FEW SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THIS DOES OCCUR WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND
THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE RISEN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS ALREADY AND SHOULD STAY
THERE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WRAP-AROUND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS TO KCHS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.
LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FEATURE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. THUS...WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING CHS HARBOR...WITH
GALES BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 5 FT ACROSS NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST EASTERN
PORTIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART. BASED ON DRYING
TRENDS ON THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
WITH THE NAM INDICATED RAIN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEPT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TWENTY-KNOT WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATED A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KGSP 050252
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP 500 MB
HEIGHT PROGNOSTICS DEPICT THE POTENT UPPER VORTICITY LOBE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE SW NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT 5 TO 10 DBZ REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER
OUR AREA...BUT WITHOUT ANY COHERENT SHOWERS YET. THIS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WITH
MODEL DEVELOPMENT STILL MORE SOLIDLY FOCUSED ON THE 06Z TO 10Z
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...PROFILES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
COOL AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE SOME MOISTURE DEVELOPING
VERTICALLY TOWARD THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO FORM...WITH A PTYPE MIX OVER TO SNOW UNDER ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY STAY
THE COURSE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE
CLT METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER
MOISTURE...AND COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC
COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS FINALLY LET GO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SLOWLY
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK LOWER END VFR CIGS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS
FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY 07Z TO 11Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A TEMPO FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS
SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME...ALONG WITH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS WELL...AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY ABATE
THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT THE EVENT
DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PERMIT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO FLIRT WITH KAVL AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-
     503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050057
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVELS WERE MOIST BUT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE HRRR SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED LOW POPS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. TWENTY-KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050057
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVELS WERE MOIST BUT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE HRRR SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED LOW POPS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. TWENTY-KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050057
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVELS WERE MOIST BUT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE HRRR SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED LOW POPS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. TWENTY-KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
HASTEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/NAM.
ALSO...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AROUND
CHARLESTON...SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER
TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CYCLONE. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING BUT CIGS
COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. KSAV SHOULD GO
VFR FOR GOOD BY 03Z...BUT KCHS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30
KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON
AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY SLACK THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES CAPE
HATTERAS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD AIR WILL MIX DOWN
READILY ACROSS EVEN THE COOL SHELF WATERS...NECESSITATING A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
4-5 FT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND 5-8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/CEB/MS
MARINE...CEB/MS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
HASTEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/NAM.
ALSO...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AROUND
CHARLESTON...SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER
TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CYCLONE. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING BUT CIGS
COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. KSAV SHOULD GO
VFR FOR GOOD BY 03Z...BUT KCHS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30
KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON
AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY SLACK THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES CAPE
HATTERAS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD AIR WILL MIX DOWN
READILY ACROSS EVEN THE COOL SHELF WATERS...NECESSITATING A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
4-5 FT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND 5-8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/CEB/MS
MARINE...CEB/MS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
HASTEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/NAM.
ALSO...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AROUND
CHARLESTON...SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND CLOSER
TO 40 NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND THE CHARLESTON METRO. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE BEGINNING AT 3
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CYCLONE. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING BUT CIGS
COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. KSAV SHOULD GO
VFR FOR GOOD BY 03Z...BUT KCHS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...NEARING 30
KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. LLWS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR ISSUE SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY SOON
AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY SLACK THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES CAPE
HATTERAS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD AIR WILL MIX DOWN
READILY ACROSS EVEN THE COOL SHELF WATERS...NECESSITATING A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
4-5 FT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND 5-8 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERCXM/
KSAV 1.68/1959... /BROKEN TODAY...SEE RERSAV/

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/CEB/MS
MARINE...CEB/MS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN
MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING POPS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OR MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING  ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042143
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE KEEPS CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS THIS AIRMASS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE AFORE MENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THANKS TO THE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 25 MPH
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON LAKE
MOULTRIE...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 1-16 WHERE COLD
AIR ADVECTION INITIATES EARLIER...AND WILL BE NEAR 40 FOR THE
CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE THE SHOWERS LINGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE LATEST BLEND OF
MODELS...WHICH PUTS THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT
RAINFALL WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES PAST.
KSAV WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. KCHS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. VFR RETURNS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY SLACK THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES CAPE
HATTERAS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD AIR WILL MIX DOWN
READILY ACROSS EVEN THE COOL SHELF WATERS...NECESSITATING A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
4-5 FT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND 5-7 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF WINDS ALONG THE COOLER COASTAL
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS WHILE A GALE WARNING WILL
BE UP FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE FIRST ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH
HEADLINES IN THAT ZONE POSSIBLY EXPIRING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OVER THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTED. BUT
MOST SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINES APPEARS TO BE OVER MARINE ZONES 350 FOR
WINDS AND 374 FOR WINDS AND SEAS. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959...
KSAV 1.68/1959...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEB/MS
MARINE...CEB/MS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN
MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING POPS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OR MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN
MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING POPS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OR MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 042136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN
MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DECREASING POPS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OR MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ036>038.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041902
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. COLD
FRONT AT 16Z NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW- LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
WEST MIDLANDS...BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET. MOISTURE
MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL TREND IS FOR
DECREASING POPS.

PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND FALL AT
LOWER RATES OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME WHICH WOULD NOT EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
TODAY IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TO MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BREEZY AFTER 06Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY TO FRIDAY BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE ENERGY
WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING ANOTHER LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN COLD
POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041902
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. COLD
FRONT AT 16Z NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW- LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
WEST MIDLANDS...BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET. MOISTURE
MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL TREND IS FOR
DECREASING POPS.

PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND FALL AT
LOWER RATES OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME WHICH WOULD NOT EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
TODAY IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TO MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BREEZY AFTER 06Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY TO FRIDAY BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE ENERGY
WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING ANOTHER LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN COLD
POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041902
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. COLD
FRONT AT 16Z NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW- LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
WEST MIDLANDS...BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET. MOISTURE
MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL TREND IS FOR
DECREASING POPS.

PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND FALL AT
LOWER RATES OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME WHICH WOULD NOT EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
TODAY IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TO MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BREEZY AFTER 06Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY TO FRIDAY BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE ENERGY
WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING ANOTHER LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN COLD
POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041828
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT UP THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT/WITHIN BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. AFTERNOON UPDATE BEGAN TO TAPER POPS FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WORK IN THIS AFTERNOON. 100 POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE
COAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES NEAR 2 IN REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF SAVANNAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...BUT OVERALL HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT...A ROBUST AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY ORIENTED TILT AS IT REACHES INTO THE FORECAST
REGION LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC TO
DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TREK NE TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
FROM SW TO NE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY RAINS WILL CLEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER BY 06Z...THEN CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY 09Z.
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 TO 2/3 INCH NE TO 1/10 TO 1/4
INCH OR LESS SW.

THE GFS VERTICAL SNAPSHOTS DO SHOW A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF A
LITTLE WET AND NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BUT MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE SCOURED OUT ENOUGH BY THAT TIME FOR THAT NOT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN IGNORED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL JETTING OVERHEAD...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND
COLD ADVECTION. PROBABLY JUST SHY OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP TO 20-25 MPH.

THESE BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUNGE SHARPLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE SE STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST
AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN
BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH
GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AT 18Z ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF AND
GFS 500 MB PROGS ALREADY SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRES AREA OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND QUICKER TO CUT-OFF WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. WE HAVE COLLABORATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF PERSISTENCE
BY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES LATER ON SATURDAY AS UPPER DIFLUENCE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
INCREASE. THE PATTERN STRONGLY FAVORS HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S WITH
TEMPS FALLING OFF AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS
RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS TENDS
TO KEEP INLAND SE GEORGIA RATHER DRY WE OPTED TO GRADUATE POPS FROM
30 PERCENT WELL INLAND TO LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION PANS OUT AS COLDER AIR FILLS ON THE BACKSIDE AND HINTS THAT
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MAY FRINGE THE W-NW
FLANKS OF THE PCPN SHIELD BY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON
THE 00Z/04 MODEL RUNS...WE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS
POINT. SUNDAY COULD BE WINDY ALONG COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY...AGAIN
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT
RAINFALL WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES PAST.
KSAV WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. KCHS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL FILL IN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL
LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON BACK-SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ON THE FRONT OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS
WAKE...BUT SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND WILL STILL OBTAIN 3 TO 5 FT
THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...A 1016 MB LOW ON THE COLD FRONT WILL DEEPEN SOME 7-10
MB AS IT PASSES TO THE NE. LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1 MB/HOUR WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. THAT ALONG WITH A 40 KT OR GREATER LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING
FROM THE SW BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND AMZ352-354. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 40 KT ARE
INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE GALES ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO HOIST A
GALE WATCH BEGINNING AT 4 AM FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES TRENDING DOWN DURING
THE LATTER MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE GUSTS TEND TO
SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN OVER OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM WITH ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW FOR SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES INTO PLAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND FOR THE WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
PINCH LATER ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP COASTAL
LOW TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALES
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRES AREA OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WE THINK THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND 20-60 NM GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEEP LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY WITH JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959...
KSAV 1.68/1959...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041828
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT UP THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT/WITHIN BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. AFTERNOON UPDATE BEGAN TO TAPER POPS FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WORK IN THIS AFTERNOON. 100 POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE
COAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES NEAR 2 IN REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF SAVANNAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...BUT OVERALL HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT...A ROBUST AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY ORIENTED TILT AS IT REACHES INTO THE FORECAST
REGION LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC TO
DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TREK NE TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
FROM SW TO NE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY RAINS WILL CLEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER BY 06Z...THEN CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY 09Z.
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 TO 2/3 INCH NE TO 1/10 TO 1/4
INCH OR LESS SW.

THE GFS VERTICAL SNAPSHOTS DO SHOW A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF A
LITTLE WET AND NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BUT MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE SCOURED OUT ENOUGH BY THAT TIME FOR THAT NOT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN IGNORED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL JETTING OVERHEAD...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND
COLD ADVECTION. PROBABLY JUST SHY OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP TO 20-25 MPH.

THESE BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUNGE SHARPLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE SE STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST
AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN
BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH
GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AT 18Z ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF AND
GFS 500 MB PROGS ALREADY SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRES AREA OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND QUICKER TO CUT-OFF WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. WE HAVE COLLABORATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF PERSISTENCE
BY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES LATER ON SATURDAY AS UPPER DIFLUENCE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
INCREASE. THE PATTERN STRONGLY FAVORS HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S WITH
TEMPS FALLING OFF AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS
RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS TENDS
TO KEEP INLAND SE GEORGIA RATHER DRY WE OPTED TO GRADUATE POPS FROM
30 PERCENT WELL INLAND TO LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION PANS OUT AS COLDER AIR FILLS ON THE BACKSIDE AND HINTS THAT
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MAY FRINGE THE W-NW
FLANKS OF THE PCPN SHIELD BY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON
THE 00Z/04 MODEL RUNS...WE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS
POINT. SUNDAY COULD BE WINDY ALONG COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY...AGAIN
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT
RAINFALL WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES PAST.
KSAV WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. KCHS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL FILL IN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL
LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON BACK-SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ON THE FRONT OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS
WAKE...BUT SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND WILL STILL OBTAIN 3 TO 5 FT
THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...A 1016 MB LOW ON THE COLD FRONT WILL DEEPEN SOME 7-10
MB AS IT PASSES TO THE NE. LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1 MB/HOUR WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. THAT ALONG WITH A 40 KT OR GREATER LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING
FROM THE SW BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND AMZ352-354. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 40 KT ARE
INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE GALES ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO HOIST A
GALE WATCH BEGINNING AT 4 AM FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES TRENDING DOWN DURING
THE LATTER MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE GUSTS TEND TO
SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN OVER OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM WITH ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW FOR SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES INTO PLAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND FOR THE WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
PINCH LATER ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP COASTAL
LOW TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALES
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRES AREA OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WE THINK THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND 20-60 NM GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEEP LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY WITH JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959...
KSAV 1.68/1959...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041828
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
SHIFT UP THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT/WITHIN BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. AFTERNOON UPDATE BEGAN TO TAPER POPS FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WORK IN THIS AFTERNOON. 100 POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE
COAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES NEAR 2 IN REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF SAVANNAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...BUT OVERALL HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT...A ROBUST AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY ORIENTED TILT AS IT REACHES INTO THE FORECAST
REGION LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC TO
DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TREK NE TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
FROM SW TO NE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY RAINS WILL CLEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER BY 06Z...THEN CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY 09Z.
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 TO 2/3 INCH NE TO 1/10 TO 1/4
INCH OR LESS SW.

THE GFS VERTICAL SNAPSHOTS DO SHOW A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF A
LITTLE WET AND NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BUT MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE SCOURED OUT ENOUGH BY THAT TIME FOR THAT NOT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN IGNORED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL JETTING OVERHEAD...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND
COLD ADVECTION. PROBABLY JUST SHY OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP TO 20-25 MPH.

THESE BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUNGE SHARPLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS TROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. INTO LATE MORNING...IT SHOULD BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 BUT WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE SE STATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST
AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO FREEZING MANY AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN
BOTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TOWARD DAWN ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTH
GEORGIA.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AT 18Z ON SATURDAY THE ECMWF AND
GFS 500 MB PROGS ALREADY SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRES AREA OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND QUICKER TO CUT-OFF WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. WE HAVE COLLABORATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF PERSISTENCE
BY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES LATER ON SATURDAY AS UPPER DIFLUENCE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
INCREASE. THE PATTERN STRONGLY FAVORS HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S WITH
TEMPS FALLING OFF AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS
RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS TENDS
TO KEEP INLAND SE GEORGIA RATHER DRY WE OPTED TO GRADUATE POPS FROM
30 PERCENT WELL INLAND TO LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION PANS OUT AS COLDER AIR FILLS ON THE BACKSIDE AND HINTS THAT
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MAY FRINGE THE W-NW
FLANKS OF THE PCPN SHIELD BY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON
THE 00Z/04 MODEL RUNS...WE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS
POINT. SUNDAY COULD BE WINDY ALONG COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY...AGAIN
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A
POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE SE U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW CLIMO VALUES
AFTER A NEAR CLIMO DAY ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL WELL BE USHERED
IN BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT
RAINFALL WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES PAST.
KSAV WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. KCHS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL FILL IN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL
LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON BACK-SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ON THE FRONT OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS
WAKE...BUT SEAS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND WILL STILL OBTAIN 3 TO 5 FT
THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...A 1016 MB LOW ON THE COLD FRONT WILL DEEPEN SOME 7-10
MB AS IT PASSES TO THE NE. LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1 MB/HOUR WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. THAT ALONG WITH A 40 KT OR GREATER LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING
FROM THE SW BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND AMZ352-354. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 40 KT ARE
INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE GALES ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO HOIST A
GALE WATCH BEGINNING AT 4 AM FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES TRENDING DOWN DURING
THE LATTER MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE GUSTS TEND TO
SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN OVER OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM WITH ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW FOR SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES INTO PLAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND FOR THE WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
PINCH LATER ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP COASTAL
LOW TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALES
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRES AREA OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WE THINK THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND 20-60 NM GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEEP LOW...HOWEVER COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY WITH JETTING OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR 4 FEBRUARY...
KCHS 1.63/1959...
KCXM 0.76/1959...
KSAV 1.68/1959...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041756
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. COLD
FRONT AT 16Z NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW- LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
WEST MIDLANDS...BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET. MOISTURE
MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL TREND IS FOR
DECREASING POPS.

PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND FALL AT
LOWER RATES OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME WHICH WOULD NOT EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
TODAY IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TO MAY BE LIGHT DRIZZLE. MOISTURE
BECOMES SHALLOW BY 06Z. CLEARING EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BREEZY AFTER 06Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY TO FRIDAY BUT MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BRIEF COASTAL LOW BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AT
THIS POINT.

THAT SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND A MUCH LARGER
AND DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BRINGING A COLD POLAR AIR MASS WITH IT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR VFR ON FRIDAY.

FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AROUND OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING LOWER CLOUDS MAY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EAST CAN BE
CURTAILED A BIT MORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKED
UP AGAINST THE EDGE OF THE MTNS ON THE TN BORDER. THE MTNS WERE
GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE. LOW CLOUDS HAD ALMOST MOVED OUT OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. IN BETWEEN...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP
FROM THE S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THRU THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041652
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1152 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. COLD
FRONT AT 16Z NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW- LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
WEST MIDLANDS...BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION 250MB JET. MOISTURE
MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL TREND IS FOR
DECREASING POPS.

PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND FALL AT
LOWER RATES OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME WHICH WOULD NOT EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
TODAY IN THE 50S UNDER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH
COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY TO FRIDAY BUT MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BRIEF COASTAL LOW BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AT
THIS POINT.

THAT SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND A MUCH LARGER
AND DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BRINGING A COLD POLAR AIRMASS WITH IT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE S/E FORECAST AREA
(FA) AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO NEAR THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
CONTINUED MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE RAIN THROUGH TODAY FOR THE TERMINALS. LATEST
RADAR LOOPS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AT OGB. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE FA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
INDICATIONS OF SOME LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE
LOW TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




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