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000
FXUS62 KGSP 250714
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 250714
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 250657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE
PROBABLE AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE PESSIMISTIC. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE
PROBABLE AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE PESSIMISTIC. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE
PROBABLE AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE PESSIMISTIC. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 250657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE
PROBABLE AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE PESSIMISTIC. HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 250649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE AND ARE
POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 250649
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE IN THE WEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTION. FORECASTED POPS OF 10 PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 30
PERCENT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES -3 TO -6 C ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE AND ARE
POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...SAT PIX SHOW ONLY SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCU REMAINING
UNDER THE INCREASING CIRRUS VEIL. GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY
RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPING
STRATOCU AND ANY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHRA. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS
BY REMOVING POP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AND KEEPING LOW CLOUD CIGS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. FCST LOWS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH



000
FXUS62 KGSP 250535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...SAT PIX SHOW ONLY SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCU REMAINING
UNDER THE INCREASING CIRRUS VEIL. GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY
RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPING
STRATOCU AND ANY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHRA. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS
BY REMOVING POP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AND KEEPING LOW CLOUD CIGS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. FCST LOWS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 250506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH
WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GEORGIA
WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WAS NOTED.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC...OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 250506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH
WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GEORGIA
WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WAS NOTED.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC...OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH
WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GEORGIA
WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WAS NOTED.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC...OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 250506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH
WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GEORGIA
WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WAS NOTED.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC...OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

A SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A 20-25
KT LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE AND ARE
POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 250230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

A SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A 20-25
KT LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE AND ARE
POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

A SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A 20-25
KT LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE AND ARE
POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST LIKELY TO
EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KGSP 250224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KCHS 250124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 250124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

A SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A 20-25
KT LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

A SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A 20-25
KT LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 242359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 242359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 242359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 242359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 242359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN OFF THE COAST. MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL ARE PROBABLE
AND ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB/CAE/CUB.

THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND IS MOST
LIKELY TO EFFECT AGS/DNL. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AGS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION RESTRICTION. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS ON CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE NAM KEEPS VFR
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS HAS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
DROPS CIGS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT CIGS VFR AS OF NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE SE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY



000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 242257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
WHICH WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. IN FACT...SOME FAIRLY THINK CLOUDS ARE
POISED TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES WILL BECOME/REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BRUSH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THIS PATTERN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM FOR ANY LAND AREAS. LOWS FORM THE MID-UPPER
60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAV AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN KEEN ON ITS POTENTIAL AND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THIS
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KGSP 242050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP SKY COVER INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWING THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDIER SKIES A BIT PER 18Z NAM. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD...BUT OVERALL THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 242050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP SKY COVER INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWING THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDIER SKIES A BIT PER 18Z NAM. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD...BUT OVERALL THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241954
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241954
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241954
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241954
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL 30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG SPREAD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 241943
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD AND
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DRIVING
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LONG FETCH AND
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS. ALL OF
THE MOISTURE IS CONTAINED IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KFT...AND ANYTHING ABOVE
THAT IS QUITE DRY WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STREAMING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS AND INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS. GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ITS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE STAYED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LOCATIONS
AROUND DARIEN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THANKS TO MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS
ELEVATED. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY AT KSAV. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM...AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 241943
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD AND
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DRIVING
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LONG FETCH AND
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS. ALL OF
THE MOISTURE IS CONTAINED IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KFT...AND ANYTHING ABOVE
THAT IS QUITE DRY WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STREAMING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS AND INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS. GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ITS HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE STAYED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LOCATIONS
AROUND DARIEN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THANKS TO MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS
ELEVATED. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY AT KSAV. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM...AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RISE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
ONSHORE...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TO SHALLOW ALONG WITH CAPPED AIRMASS
BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
30 KT JET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CSRA...AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATING A BIG OF A
SPREAD WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST/NEAR MAV TEMPS WITH WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM AROUND AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING TO CLOSE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE...DRIER IN THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGION.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -4C
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO FORCING OR
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE.  TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE ECWMF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DISPLACING IT TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST.  THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
FORCING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THE FORECAST WILL BE TAILORED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WED/THU WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE BUT THEN TREND TOWARD SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY
DIURNAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVE THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E/SE
AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS
MENTIONED...DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY/CSRA OVERNIGHT IS INDICATED BY LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET...LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
AGS/DNL FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE AT OGB AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL JET/LIFT WEAKENS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LCV
NEAR TERM...LCV
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE UPDATE.
A SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE TRIED MOVING INTO THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...BUT SHOW LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO SHORE.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY AT KSAV. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241455
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE AND OBS ALREADY
SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING AND EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH
JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. STAYED
WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241455
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM JUST OF THE DELMARVA INTO ERN NC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE AND OBS ALREADY
SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING AND EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH
JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. STAYED
WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241401
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ALMOST DIRECTLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS. SOUNDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...AND THAT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS
AS WELL AS SOME ADVECTING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET DAY. NO CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST...RANGING
TO MID 80S WELL INLAND IN SOME PLACES.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNSET DURING THE
WARMEST PARTS OF THE DAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV POST SEA-BREEZE. A FEW MODELS HINT MVFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT KSAV LATE TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 241401
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ALMOST DIRECTLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS. SOUNDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...AND THAT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS
AS WELL AS SOME ADVECTING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET DAY. NO CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST...RANGING
TO MID 80S WELL INLAND IN SOME PLACES.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNSET DURING THE
WARMEST PARTS OF THE DAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV POST SEA-BREEZE. A FEW MODELS HINT MVFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT KSAV LATE TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE POCKET OF MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNSET DURING THE
WARMEST PARTS OF THE DAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV POST SEA-BREEZE. A FEW MODELS HINT MVFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT KSAV LATE TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 241129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE POCKET OF MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNSET DURING THE
WARMEST PARTS OF THE DAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV POST SEA-BREEZE. A FEW MODELS HINT MVFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT KSAV LATE TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 241129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE POCKET OF MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNSET DURING THE
WARMEST PARTS OF THE DAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV POST SEA-BREEZE. A FEW MODELS HINT MVFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT KSAV LATE TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 241003
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
603 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIR MASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS WILL HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

LATER TODAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 240753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GEORGIA. VERY THIN
CIRRUS WERE ALSO MOVING EAST INTO SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DARIEN GEORGIA
EARLIER ON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GEORGIA. VERY THIN
CIRRUS WERE ALSO MOVING EAST INTO SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DARIEN GEORGIA
EARLIER ON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GEORGIA. VERY THIN
CIRRUS WERE ALSO MOVING EAST INTO SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DARIEN GEORGIA
EARLIER ON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GEORGIA. VERY THIN
CIRRUS WERE ALSO MOVING EAST INTO SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DARIEN GEORGIA
EARLIER ON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS AND LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL
HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

LATER TODAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 240539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING
FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS OF 20 TO 60 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING APPEARS A LITTLE LESS DOMINATE. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS AND LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL
HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

LATER TODAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240517
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE OCCURRED OVER SOUTHERN MCINTOSH
COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR AND COULD SEE FEW MORE SPRINKLES REACH
THE GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
SHORT TERM TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR
5-6 FT SEAS. WINDS WERE SOLIDLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN THE WATERS WITHIN 10-15 NM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 240517
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE OCCURRED OVER SOUTHERN MCINTOSH
COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR AND COULD SEE FEW MORE SPRINKLES REACH
THE GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
SHORT TERM TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR
5-6 FT SEAS. WINDS WERE SOLIDLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN THE WATERS WITHIN 10-15 NM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240227
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 240227
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 240227
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240227
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING THE AGS VCNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KCHS 240127
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240127
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED



000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 232343
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AND NO CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 0Z TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN 5-10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCLT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODELS
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER AND AGS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER BODIES OF WATER
HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
HELP MIX OUT THE MOISTURE.

TOMORROW SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE E/SE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 232236
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 232236
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 232236
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 232236
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 232236
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
FEW SPRINKLES REACH THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY ATTM. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALIZED THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PER 18Z WW4 OUTPUT. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH PWAT 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING GIVEN
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS THAT WERE HIGHER WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND
ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WEST TO EAST AS IT SLIPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW 60S
INLAND...BUT PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ELEVATED AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW...AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATOCUMULUS PUSH ON SHORE. CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231931
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND
ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WEST TO EAST AS IT SLIPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW 60S
INLAND...BUT PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ELEVATED AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW...AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATOCUMULUS PUSH ON SHORE. CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING IN PLACE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW. ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER AND THE
NORTHERN END OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD REACH. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUN NIGHT AND PUSH INTO SC SOUTH OF BEAUFORT
ALONG THE TROUGH. FOR MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH POSITION WHICH SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE INLAND ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL DRIVE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODESTLY TIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS AS WELL. BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT 3-5 FT OUT TO
20 NM...AND 5-6 FT BEYOND. AS A RESULT OF 6 FT SEAS BEYOND 40 NM IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING
A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20 NM
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE HELPS INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LOWER PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARD A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN THE RIP CURRENT REPORTS
FROM TODAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB



000
FXUS62 KGSP 231819
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS...ALONG WITH BROAD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD PLEASANT WX ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  ASIDE FOR FURTHER EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM LEADING TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR FCST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER ESE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS SOME MIXING OCCURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S UNDER
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231819
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS...ALONG WITH BROAD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD PLEASANT WX ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  ASIDE FOR FURTHER EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM LEADING TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR FCST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER ESE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS SOME MIXING OCCURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S UNDER
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231819
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS...ALONG WITH BROAD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD PLEASANT WX ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  ASIDE FOR FURTHER EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM LEADING TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR FCST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER ESE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS SOME MIXING OCCURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S UNDER
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231819
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS...ALONG WITH BROAD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD PLEASANT WX ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  ASIDE FOR FURTHER EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM LEADING TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR FCST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER ESE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS SOME MIXING OCCURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S UNDER
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...STRATOCUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. THERE IS A VERY LOW END
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV...BUT IF A CEILING DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE VFR AND SHORT LIVED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE SETTLED NICELY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING GUSTS
INTO THE 22-23 KT RANGE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS THAT WERE HIGHER
WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF
10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS THAT WERE HIGHER
WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF
10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS THAT WERE HIGHER
WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF
10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS THAT WERE HIGHER
WITH PRIOR RUN HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF
10 TO 20 PERCENT BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. FROM LATE WEEK/WEEKEND BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE
CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF POPS FOR THE
PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KGSP 231722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PRIMARILY A WIND
FCST AS SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC...OR POSSIBLY FEW 150-250 TO ACCOUNT
FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT.  AS FOR WINDS...OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND PREVAIL ESE FLOW IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE AT ALL SITES
AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO APPROX 7-10KTS BY LATE MORNING
AND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD MORNING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 KTS AND SKY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EAST
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER. MAY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE
AGS TERMINAL 10Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HELP TO DRIVE A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE CLEAR...WITH JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE SUNNY AND
WARM...WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 18-22 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE BEST EASTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHERE 41008 HAS BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KT THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LAND/SEA INTERFACE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR 41008 AND THE TYBEE ISLAND WIND OBS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SOLID 15-20 KT INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HELP TO DRIVE A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE CLEAR...WITH JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE SUNNY AND
WARM...WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 18-22 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE BEST EASTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHERE 41008 HAS BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KT THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LAND/SEA INTERFACE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR 41008 AND THE TYBEE ISLAND WIND OBS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SOLID 15-20 KT INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20
NM AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL/ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231426
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH LOW RH UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE
WHILE VEERING SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
THUS...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231426
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH LOW RH UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE
WHILE VEERING SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
THUS...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231426
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH LOW RH UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE
WHILE VEERING SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
THUS...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231426
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH LOW RH UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE
WHILE VEERING SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
THUS...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
E/NE THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
E/NE THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
E/NE THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
E/NE THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS PORTRAYAL OF A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EMPHATIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MORNING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CU/SC FIELDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD
FLATTEN OUT UNDER THIS CAP. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMP SCHEMES TODAY
WITH MID 80S A GOOD BET ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND 80-83
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A BIT COOLER BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT TIMES IN COASTAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE ROLLS INLAND...WITH THE BEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS COASTAL SE GEORGIA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 18-22 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES TO THE THE NE OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS PORTRAYAL OF A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EMPHATIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MORNING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CU/SC FIELDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD
FLATTEN OUT UNDER THIS CAP. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMP SCHEMES TODAY
WITH MID 80S A GOOD BET ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND 80-83
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A BIT COOLER BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT TIMES IN COASTAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE ROLLS INLAND...WITH THE BEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS COASTAL SE GEORGIA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD LINGER OR MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN COOLER
SPOTS INLAND ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-16...OTHERWISE 60-65
DEGREE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH...TURNING LOCAL
WINDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
SC...THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION TO
FIRE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
FAR INLAND SC. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS TO THE WEST AND A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
EXISTS NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIKELY
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S INTO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 18-22 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAV
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES TO THE THE NE OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 40 NM.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GRADIENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY ALLOW SOME 6 FT SEAS TO MOVE INTO
THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL APPROACH 25 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...PERHAPS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT.

RIP CURRENTS...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BUMPED OUR FORECAST PROGNOSTICATION CLOSER TO A MODERATE RISK
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. WITH THE TIDE GOING OUT ALL AFTERNOON
WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND BUMPED THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
TYBEE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 231034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 231034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KGSP 231034
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIPRES WILL STEADILY ADVECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES SLOWLY ON MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND MOVING
EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL CREATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...NE GA AND UPSTATE WEST OF I-26...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHC OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUE. HIGHS MON REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST AND RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK SUMMER-LIKE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE SE KEEPING A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN RIGHT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE STEADY ECMWF FCST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN CWFA EACH DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FARTHER FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS. THE
CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT SHIFTING THE WINDS
FROM NE TO SE BY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT...PICKING UP TO
AROUND 5-7 KT THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW PERIODS OF CIRRUS...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OTHER CLOUDS OR FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEGINNING SUNDAY. A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. IT WILL BE DRY. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE
COMBINED WITH HEATING TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER
RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE SREF
GUIDANCE RANGED FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT IN EAST TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DOMINATE UPPER RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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